Core Viewpoint - Blue Arrow Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd. has had its IPO review status on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board changed to "accepted" as of December 31 [1] Company Overview - Blue Arrow Aerospace primarily engages in the research, development, and production of liquid oxygen-methane engines and launch vehicles, as well as providing commercial rocket launch services [1] - The company is currently in a loss-making position and plans to list under the fifth set of standards on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1] Fundraising and Use of Proceeds - The funds raised from the issuance of shares, after deducting issuance costs, will be entirely allocated to projects aimed at enhancing the production capacity and technology of reusable rockets [1]

2025.12.31 本文字数：9795，阅读时长大约16分钟 作者 |第一财经 苏蔓薏 林洁琛 2025，全球经济在波动中寻求新的平衡。 2026，我们在挑战中寻找一些确定性。全球经济增长前景如何？中国经济有哪些新动向？美联储是否会 激进降息？中国货币政策如何继续适度宽松？财政政策怎样促进居民增收？黄金是否会续创新高？人民 币会继续升值吗？房地产市场风险能否出清？美股AI泡沫会被戳破吗？A股能否站稳4000点？科技股能 否持续带动市场？ 行至岁末，挑战依旧。 带着这些问题，第一财经携手十位"年度机构首席经济学家"，为你预测2026。 全球 中金公司首席经济学家、研究部负责人、中金研究院院长 第一财经：2026年全球经济增长前景如何，中国经济有哪些新动向？ 彭文生：地缘竞争日益成为影响全球经济和市场的关注点，这既涉及传统的经贸，更包括人工智能等创 新领域的博弈。资源禀赋、规模经济、交易成本是国际贸易与全球产业链的三个决定因素。其中，资源 禀赋和传统理解的比较优势有关（劳动密集、资本密集、自然资源）；交易成本包括运输成本、关税和 非关税保护主义措施等；对于美国关税的影响，中国的规模经济优势是一个重要因素。 在新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of the first asset-backed securities (ABS) backed by thermal power assets in China, led by GCL Group, aligns with national policies to revitalize existing assets and expand effective investment in the clean energy sector [1][3]. Group 1: ABS Issuance Details - The ABS project, named "Guojin Asset - Xinjiang Guoxin Holding Real Estate Asset Support Special Plan" (266682.SH), has been listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange with a total issuance scale of 5.46 billion yuan [1]. - The underlying asset for this ABS is the Xinjiang Zhunjing Thermal Power Plant, owned by GCL Group [1]. Group 2: Fund Utilization and Market Context - The raised funds will be directed towards research and development of clean energy technologies, optimizing financial structure, and reducing the debt-to-asset ratio [3]. - The issuance of ABS is seen as a way to "revitalize" stable operating power plants without affecting company control, while also addressing high debt levels and tightening external financing in the renewable energy sector [3]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Comparisons - The renewable energy sector, particularly solar, wind, and comprehensive energy companies, is facing high debt ratios and pressures from external financing, with the photovoltaic industry reporting losses of 31.039 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [3]. - Other companies, such as Envision Group and Trina Solar, have also launched ABS projects this year, indicating a growing trend in the market for securitizing energy assets [3][4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of stable cash dividends by listed companies enhances shareholder recognition and market acceptance, with regulatory support from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) encouraging reasonable and stable dividend policies [2][3]. Group 1: Dividend Implementation - Over 10 companies listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced mid-term and third-quarter dividend implementation announcements, with over 18 companies expected to distribute more than 10 billion yuan in total dividends at the beginning of 2026 [2]. - In 2025, Shenzhen-listed companies cumulatively distributed cash dividends amounting to 547.56 billion yuan, with a total of over 2 trillion yuan in dividends expected during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2]. - A total of 533 companies in Shenzhen implemented mid-term dividends of 132.93 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.98% [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The new "National Nine Articles" strengthens the regulation of cash dividends for listed companies and increases incentives for high-dividend companies [3]. - The CSRC issued guidelines to encourage cash dividends, aiming to enhance dividend levels and promote more frequent dividend distributions [3]. Group 3: Dividend Distribution by Sector - In 2025, the main board of Shenzhen listed 965 companies that cumulatively distributed cash dividends of 410.11 billion yuan, accounting for 74.90% of the total cash dividends in Shenzhen [3]. - The growth rate of dividends in the ChiNext board is notable, with 945 companies distributing a total of 137.45 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.41% [3]. Group 4: Notable Companies and Dividend Amounts - In the consumer sector, Wuliangye (000858.SZ) distributed 10 shares for 25.78 yuan, totaling 10.01 billion yuan in December 2025 [4]. - Gree Electric (000651.SZ) approved a mid-term profit distribution plan, distributing 10 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 5.59 billion yuan [4]. - In the financial sector, GF Securities (000776.SZ) distributed 1 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 0.76 billion yuan [4]. Group 5: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Shenzhen-listed companies achieved a total operating income of 15.72 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 903.02 billion yuan, up 9.69% [5]. - 2,169 companies reported profits, representing 75.34% of the total, with 207 companies (9.54% of profitable companies) experiencing profit growth exceeding 100% [5].

2025.12.31 本文字数：2487，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 陈君君 2025年末，当许多储户打开手机银行，曾经高息的三年期、五年期定期存款已难觅踪迹，大额存单纷纷 下架，定期存款利率也普遍降至"1字头"。低利率环境下，"存款搬家"现象上演，居民资金正加速从传 统存款向理财、保险、黄金等多元资产迁移。与此同时，银行内部也在经历结构性调整：国有大行率先 降息，中小银行通过频繁多轮降息和退场长端产品，主动压降负债成本。展望2026年，业内人士表示， 存款市场的调整步伐预计将进一步加快，利率和存款规模或将继续下行，"存款搬家"的趋势或将延续， 居民储蓄向多元资产迁徙的动能仍将存在。 全面降息与长期限存款退场 2025年，个人存款和理财市场呈现出显著的结构分化特征。随着利率整体下行，长期限定期存款利率普 遍进入"1字头"，大额存单等高息产品陆续下架。 回顾来看，银行存款市场年内经历了涉及各类存款、遍及各类银行的降息潮。5月20日，六家国有大行 率先调整人民币存款利率，活期利率下调5个基点至0.05%，短期定期品种3至12个月的利率下调15个基 点，长期限品种3年期和5年期分别下调25个基点。 股份制 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the surge in local consumption and transportation demand during the New Year holiday, with Didi reporting a projected taxi demand exceeding 80 million on December 31 [2] - The bathing industry is expected to experience significant growth in 2025, with a more than sixfold increase in search volume for keywords related to 24-hour bathing centers in the week leading up to New Year's [2] - Nanjing Jiuhua Spa's manager anticipates a record high in customer flow and transaction volume during the holiday, estimating a 40%-50% increase compared to the same period last year [2][3] Group 2 - The bathing experience has evolved from a traditional cleaning service to a comprehensive urban micro-vacation destination, appealing primarily to the 18-35 age group, which constitutes over 60% of the customer base [3] - KTV has emerged as a surprising growth area in service consumption, with transaction volume increasing nearly 30% in the two weeks leading up to New Year's, particularly among the post-2000 generation, which saw a growth rate exceeding 57% [4] - The demand for beauty services, including hair and nail treatments, has surged, with discussions about these services increasing by nearly 40% year-on-year, and beauty professionals experiencing nearly 100% income growth compared to last year [4]

Core Insights - The event "2025 Annual Financial Thinkers Summit" highlighted macro trends, consumer behavior, and investment opportunities for 2026, featuring key speakers from various financial institutions [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - The rise of emotional value in consumer products, such as the Labubu doll, illustrates a shift towards narrative economics, where consumers pay for emotional connections rather than just production costs [2][3] - Future investment opportunities may lie in products that resonate with the emotional needs of the new generation, including virtual idols and immersive experiences in the metaverse [2] - The demand for emotional storytelling in products reflects a broader trend where young consumers seek meaningful connections through their purchases [3] Group 2: Asset Value and Stability - The concept of "trust anchors" in volatile markets emphasizes the need for assets with long-term value, such as gold, which serves as a hedge against economic instability [4][5] - Gold's current market price is nearing 1,000 yuan per gram, and its value is derived from its role as a universal collateral and safe haven rather than just price appreciation [5] - Real estate's value has shifted from a financial investment tool to a focus on living quality, emphasizing location and property quality in investment decisions [6] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Three key investment strategies are proposed: investing in personal development, addressing sustainable human development challenges, and focusing on compounding assets [7][8] - Investing in personal skills and knowledge is highlighted as a high-return strategy, especially for younger individuals facing job market changes [7] - Investments in sectors that solve real-world problems, such as renewable energy and biotechnology, are seen as stable growth opportunities [8]

Core Viewpoint - The trust of end consumers in the narrative of "gold as a store of value" is being tested due to recent fluctuations in gold prices and the pricing strategies of jewelry brands [2][4]. Group 1: Price Fluctuations and Consumer Behavior - On December 30, international gold prices closed at $4,340.13 per ounce, while domestic gold jewelry prices saw significant declines, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang dropping over 40 yuan per gram [2]. - In mid-December, brands such as Chow Tai Fook announced price increases of around 15% for their products, indicating a trend of rising prices prior to the recent drop [2]. - The volatility in international gold prices is increasingly impacting the trading dynamics of the gold jewelry market, with sales personnel often not fully disclosing the risks associated with price fluctuations [4]. Group 2: Consumer Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Consumers exhibit irrational behavior characterized by "buying high and selling low," driven by narratives of inflation resistance and risk aversion during price surges, leading to increased purchasing intentions [4]. - When prices decline, consumer sentiment shifts to a wait-and-see approach, resulting in behaviors such as order cancellations and delays in product pickup [4]. - The pricing mechanism of gold jewelry brands typically involves "raw material cost + processing fee + brand premium," leading to rapid price increases during gold price surges, while adjustments during price declines are more cautious due to inventory costs and consumer expectations [5]. Group 3: Trust Issues and Market Positioning - The price stickiness in the market can lead to consumers feeling "stuck" after purchasing at high prices, which undermines their trust in the narrative of gold as a reliable store of value [5]. - If brands continue to market gold jewelry as a value-preserving asset, a decline in gold prices could trigger a demand shrinkage and a crisis of trust among consumers [5].

2025，全球经济在波动中寻求新的平衡。 2026，我们在挑战中寻找一些确定性。全球经济增长前景如何？中国经济有哪些新动向？美联储是否会 激进降息？中国货币政策如何继续适度宽松？财政政策怎样促进居民增收？黄金是否会续创新高？人民 币会继续升值吗？房地产市场风险能否出清？美股AI泡沫会被戳破吗？A股能否站稳4000点？科技股能 否持续带动市场？ 行至岁末，挑战依旧。 带着这些问题，第一财经携手十位"年度机构首席经济学家"，为你预测2026。 全球 中金公司首席经济学家、研究部负责人、中金研究院院长 第一财经：2026年全球经济增长前景如何，中国经济有哪些新动向？ 彭文生：地缘竞争日益成为影响全球经济和市场的关注点，这既涉及传统的经贸，更包括人工智能等创 新领域的博弈。资源禀赋、规模经济、交易成本是国际贸易与全球产业链的三个决定因素。其中，资源 禀赋和传统理解的比较优势有关（劳动密集、资本密集、自然资源）；交易成本包括运输成本、关税和 非关税保护主义措施等；对于美国关税的影响，中国的规模经济优势是一个重要因素。 在新的地缘形势下，以内部循环为主体、内外部循环相互促进的双循环呈现一些新的动向。内循环方 面，实体经济 ...

2025.12.31 本文字数：1767，阅读时长大约3分钟 2025年末，美元指数即将录得2017年以来最大的年度跌幅。 结合衍生品市场情况，市场预计，明年伴随美联储继续降息、特朗普干预美联储等因素，美元还将继续 走弱。 8年来最差年度走势 今年，衡量美元对一篮子主要货币的美元指数下跌9.5%，即将录得8年来最大年度跌幅。今年4月，美 国总统特朗普所谓的"对等关税"引发了投资者对美国经济和美元霸权地位、避险资产地位的担忧和质 疑。当时，美元指数一度下跌15%。欧元对美元汇率在主要货币中涨幅最大，年度飙升近14%，至1.17 美元以上，上一次欧元达到这一水平还是在2021年。 德意志银行的外汇研究全球主管萨瓦罗斯（George Saravelos）甚至表示："这是美元与黄金脱钩、实施 自由浮动汇率的半个世纪多以来，美元表现最糟糕的一年。"在4月大幅下跌后，美元一度收复部分失 地，但美联储9月恢复降息，使其重新面临压力。 商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的最新数据显示，12月9日开始，交易员就转而重新做空美元，为今年10 月以来首次做空。 期权定价也变得更加负面，期权交易员对美元的看跌程度达到三个月来最高水平。存 ...