Group 1 - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session is a historically significant meeting that provides direction for the development of the party and the country as it embarks on a new journey towards building a modern socialist country [1] - The company prioritizes learning and implementing the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session as a key political task, aiming to unify thoughts and actions with the decisions of the Central Committee [1] Group 2 - The company has organized a comprehensive learning initiative, with leadership taking the lead in studying the session's key documents and engaging in discussions to deepen understanding [2] - All employees are encouraged to participate in various learning formats, ensuring that the spirit of the session reaches every staff member and fosters a strong learning atmosphere [2] Group 3 - The company emphasizes understanding the core essence of the session's spirit, particularly in relation to the futures market's role in supporting the modern industrial system and enhancing resource allocation [3] - Mechanisms are being established to enhance the role of party members, promoting their involvement in key annual tasks to leverage the party's organizational advantages for business development [3] Group 4 - The company is committed to improving service quality for the energy industry, providing comprehensive support for risk management and conducting specialized training for state-owned enterprises [4] - Financial risk prevention measures are being strengthened, including the revision of marketing regulations and the establishment of compliance management protocols to ensure stable business development [4] Group 5 - The company supports rural revitalization by collaborating on innovative insurance products and providing financial assistance to local farmers, enhancing agricultural productivity and market competitiveness [5] - The company aims to deepen the implementation of the session's spirit, enhancing professional service capabilities and risk management to contribute to national economic goals [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the influence of structural power on commodity pricing, emphasizing that this influence is formed through the combined effects of production, trade, finance, and information dimensions. It highlights the evolution of the global cotton pricing center and outlines both the favorable conditions and constraints faced by China in enhancing its commodity pricing influence [1][2]. Group 1: Structural Power in Commodity Pricing - Structural power, as defined by Susan Strange, refers to the ability of certain countries or organizations to shape and influence the behavior of others through the establishment of rules and standards in the international political economy [3]. - In the global commodity market, structural power can be obtained through various channels, including production, trade, finance, and information [3]. Group 2: Production Structural Power - Possessing resource endowments is fundamental for gaining pricing influence, as seen with the U.S. being a leading exporter of corn, sorghum, and soybeans, significantly impacting global food prices [4]. - Cross-border capital control over production resources allows entities to influence commodity production decisions, as demonstrated by large mining groups and multinational financial capital [4]. - Technological advancements have led to increased production efficiency, exemplified by the U.S. shale gas production rising from 11 billion cubic meters in 2000 to 840 billion cubic meters in 2024, making the U.S. the largest natural gas producer and exporter [4]. Group 3: Trade Structural Power - Developed countries influence global commodity trade through the establishment of trade rules and policies, affecting pricing and market conditions [5]. - Major grain traders dominate approximately 70% of international grain and oilseed trade, significantly impacting agricultural prices [5]. - Control over shipping logistics is crucial, as over 80% of international trade is conducted via maritime transport, with shipping costs affecting commodity prices [5]. Group 4: Financial Structural Power - The dominance of the U.S. dollar as the primary currency for commodity pricing and settlement significantly influences global commodity prices, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes impacting demand [6]. - The U.S. and other developed nations lead the international financial system, affecting commodity trade through cross-border payment systems [6]. - Established futures exchanges in the U.S. and Europe serve as pricing centers for energy, metals, and agricultural products, with regulatory frameworks influencing market operations [6]. Group 5: Information Structural Power - The release of price information and data by developed countries serves as authoritative references for global commodity markets, impacting price trends [7]. - Price benchmarks established by reporting agencies play a critical role in setting market prices for non-standardized commodities [7]. - Market forecasts from international financial institutions can directly influence market expectations and pricing [7]. Group 6: Evolution of Commodity Pricing Influence - The historical evolution of the global cotton pricing center illustrates the shifting role of structural power across different periods and countries [8]. - From the 16th to 18th centuries, colonial economies dominated cotton trade, with Western European countries exerting significant influence over pricing through direct control [9]. - The 19th century marked the emergence of structural power in cotton pricing, with the U.K. becoming the global center due to industrial advancements and trade networks [11]. - Post-19th century, the U.S. emerged as a leading cotton producer and established futures trading, solidifying its position as the global pricing center [12]. Group 7: Conditions and Constraints for China - Favorable conditions for China include its large market size, diversified international trade, ongoing internationalization of the RMB, and rapid development of its futures market [13][14]. - Constraints include reliance on imported raw materials, the dichotomy between domestic and international markets, insufficient internationalization of the futures market, and weak information influence [15][16]. Group 8: Recommendations for Enhancing Pricing Influence - China should integrate the enhancement of commodity pricing influence into its strategic framework, supporting enterprises in global mergers and investments [17]. - Tailored policies should be implemented to enhance futures pricing influence based on specific commodities, particularly in regions like the Belt and Road Initiative [17]. - Building a world-class futures market and fostering commodity service providers and information institutions are essential for strengthening pricing influence [18].

Group 1 - The core driver of the recent surge in London spot silver prices, which have increased over 30% since November 24, is attributed to macro liquidity easing, supply-demand imbalances, and heightened investment demand [1][3] - The macro liquidity aspect is influenced by the Federal Reserve's three interest rate cuts this year and expectations of further cuts in 2026, leading to a decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.16% and a drop in the dollar index below 100, which enhances the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver [1][3] - On the supply side, a structural shortage in the global silver market has persisted for several years, driven by rapid industrial demand from sectors like photovoltaics and AI, while mineral supply remains constrained, resulting in historically low visible inventories [1][2] Group 2 - The COMEX silver futures market is facing significant delivery pressure due to high physical delivery demands and tight available resources, with the largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, increasing its holdings by 760.37 tons (4.98%) since November 21, further straining market liquidity [2] - Policy uncertainties, particularly regarding the U.S. "232 investigation" results expected on January 17, 2026, are causing market concerns over rising import costs, prompting investors to stockpile physical silver, which exacerbates the tight supply situation [2][3] - In the short term, while silver prices have incorporated a lot of optimistic expectations, the underlying support from the Fed's easing cycle, rigid growth in green energy demand, and ongoing supply-demand gaps remain intact, suggesting that silver prices are likely to stay above $60 per ounce [3]

近期，国际贵金属市场迎来一轮凌厉涨势，黄金、白银价格持续攀升并刷新历史纪录。与此同时，具备 较强金融属性的铜等有色金属也同步走强。记者了解到，贵金属这一波行情的核心驱动力是宽松的货币 环境带来的流动性。 "美联储主席鲍威尔向市场释放了利多信号，一方面，美联储不仅如市场预期般降息25个基点，更意外 宣布重启量化宽松，每月购买400亿美元短期国债；另一方面，鲍威尔表示，通胀可能受关税影响见 顶，而就业市场风险较大，暗示未来仍有多次降息可能。这一转向彻底打破了此前'预防式降息结束'的 预期，宽松货币环境直接助推贵金属价格走高。"正信期货首席宏观分析师蒲祖林说。 格林大华首席专家王骏认为，2025年伦敦黄金现货价格从年初的2650美元／盎司冲高至12月的4400美元 ／盎司上方，年内涨幅超68%，远超股票、债券、有色金属等其他主流资产，这种价格跃迁深刻体现了 当前全球经济金融格局下，贵金属的商品属性与金融属性的双重强化。 值得关注的是，本轮行情展现出与历史周期不同的显著特点。通常情况下，代表持有黄金机会成本的美 国10年期国债实际利率与金价呈负相关。但当前，实际利率维持在高位平台震荡，而金价却同步飙升。 "值得注意的 ...

近5年中国钢材出口量持续增长，2025年钢材净出口量比2021年累计增长近6000万吨，年均增幅为 20%。 2025年中国钢材出口增量体现在钢坯方面。前9个月，钢材和钢坯出口量同比增长21%，其中钢材净出 口量增长10.7%（807万吨），而钢坯净出口量增长460%（1012万吨）。预计全年钢材和钢坯净出口量 增长近2000万吨，需求占比2%。 2025年钢坯出口量大幅增长的原因是：一方面东南亚国家对中国热卷实施反倾销政策；另一方面钢坯出 口利润比其他成品材更高。 从钢坯出口流向看，今年钢坯出口占比大的国家依次是印尼（19%）、菲律宾（14%）、土耳其 （11%）、意大利（10%）、泰国（9%）和沙特（8%）。钢坯出口占比大的国家受两方面因素驱动， 一方面是东南亚经济向好的国家城镇化进程用钢需求；另一方面是共建"一带一路"国家的基建需求。 2025年中国钢材和钢制品出口增长明显，带动钢材产量呈现增长态势，增量主要来自两个方面：一方面 是钢材净出口延续增长；另一方面是以机电产品为代表的出口增长，带动制造业用钢需求增加。同时也 需注意，以房地产为代表的内需预期依然偏弱，是钢材需求的主要拖累项。 伴随中国城镇化和 ...

前期螺纹钢期现价格呈现低位震荡运行态势，主力合约运行区间为3030~3180元／吨，受益于"反内 卷"政策预期与成本走强提振，期价震荡走高至区间上沿；目前下游需求陆续步入淡季，螺纹钢期价跟 涨力度相对有限，基差有所走弱。 尽管政策约束较强，粗钢产量扩张受到限制，但钢厂盈利状况尚可，主动减产动能不足，预计2026年粗 钢产量将略有下降。涂伟华表示，从需求看，地产行业用钢量降幅收窄，负向拖拽效应大幅减弱，基建 持续托底，用钢需求持稳为主。工程机械、汽车、造船业维持高景气度，支撑制造业用钢增长，而家 电、能源用钢量或有所下降，钢材出口量维持高位水平，预计2026年钢材需求有望企稳回暖，增量幅度 或有限。原料供需格局分化，价格下行压力偏大，仍会拖累钢价。预计2026年钢材市场供需格局弱稳运 行，钢价呈现底部宽幅震荡走势，节奏倾向于先扬后抑，重心有望小幅上移。 "从终端市场看，2026年房地产市场预计继续下探，进而拖累螺纹钢需求。黑色系缺乏正反馈驱动，螺 纹钢价格上涨高度有限。2022年以来的快速下跌趋势放缓，螺纹钢价格进入低位区间整理阶段，等待房 地产市场企稳。"汤冰华说。 资讯编辑：祝蓉 021-66896654 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rebar steel market is expected to maintain a weak supply-demand balance in 2026, with prices fluctuating between 3000 to 3500 yuan/ton, reflecting a downward trend due to ongoing supply-side policies and weak real estate demand [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - In 2025, global crude steel production is projected to decline, with a total output of 151.71 million tons from January to October, a year-on-year decrease of 1.86% [1] - China's crude steel production is expected to be between 970 million to 980 million tons in 2025, down 2.5% to 3.5% from 2024, driven by environmental restrictions and weak domestic demand [1] - The operating rate of steel mills' blast furnaces showed a fluctuating decline, with average daily molten iron output decreasing from a peak of 2.4564 million tons in May to 2.323 million tons by early December [2] Group 2: Demand Trends - China's apparent crude steel consumption from January to October 2025 was 70.8 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 6.37%, with an expected total consumption of 890 million to 900 million tons for the year [2] - Real estate investment in China has weakened significantly, with a 14.77% year-on-year decrease in completed investment from January to October 2025, and new housing starts down by 19.8% [2] - Infrastructure investment growth has slowed, with a decline of 1.1% in November 2025, indicating reduced support for rebar steel consumption [3] Group 3: Export and Manufacturing Insights - China's steel exports reached a record high of 97.73 million tons from January to October 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.57%, although export prices are under pressure due to anti-dumping measures from various countries [3] - Manufacturing investment in China showed resilience, growing by 1.9% in the first three quarters of 2025, with high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors performing particularly well [3] Group 4: Cost and Profitability - The overall inventory in the black industry chain has accumulated, with social steel inventories lower than previous years but depleting slowly [4] - The average import price of iron ore from January to November 2025 was $97.18 per ton, with expectations for further easing in global iron ore supply in 2026 [4] - Rebar steel mill profits fluctuated around 100 yuan per ton, with periods of loss, leading to a cautious production approach and a focus on high-grade iron ore procurement [4] Group 5: Market Outlook - The rebar steel market in 2026 is anticipated to remain in a weak balance of "supply contraction and demand pressure," with strict control over production and limited improvement in the real estate sector [5] - The core market challenge lies in the interplay between policy-driven supply reductions and demand contractions from the real estate downturn, alongside potential risks from overseas mineral supply increases and changing trade environments [5]

Group 1 - Despite weak fundamentals, iron ore prices rebounded last week due to macroeconomic positive expectations, with short-term prices expected to remain relatively strong [1][2] - The current iron ore market shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with port inventories continuing to accumulate [1] - Global iron ore shipments have been on the rise since late November, reaching a year-to-date high in the week of December 12, with a year-on-year increase of 17.3% [1] Group 2 - The rebound in iron ore prices is primarily driven by expectations of macroeconomic policies, with the government planning to introduce more incremental policies in 2026 to boost consumption and investment [2] - In 2026, China's crude steel demand is expected to decline by 1.5%, with a significant drop in demand from the real estate sector, while non-real estate steel consumption may also decrease [3] - Global iron ore supply is projected to increase by approximately 56 million tons in 2026, marking the beginning of a loose supply cycle, with major contributions from various mining companies [3] Group 3 - The supply-demand balance indicates a reduction of about 27 million tons in China's iron ore demand in 2026, leading to a global oversupply of approximately 60 million tons [4] - Port prices for iron ore may test the $85 per ton mark as the supply exceeds demand further [4]

2025年中国钢材和钢制品出口增长明显，带动钢材产量呈现增长态势，增量主要来自两个方面：一方面 是钢材净出口延续增长；另一方面是以机电产品为代表的出口增长，带动制造业用钢需求增加。同时也 需注意，以房地产为代表的内需预期依然偏弱，是钢材需求的主要拖累项。 伴随中国城镇化和工业化进程，中国钢材需求量持续增长，2020年表观需求量达到10.08亿吨峰值， 2021年随着地产行业下滑，钢材需求量见顶回落。根据世界钢协数据，2024年中国钢材需求量8.6亿 吨，与2020年相比累计下滑15%。 中国钢材需求主要分为建筑需求和制造业需求。建筑需求主要指房地产行业和基建行业；制造业主要的 用钢行业有机械、汽车、造船、新能源、家电和集装箱等。近几年随着中国经济结构转型，钢材需求呈 现建筑需求占比持续下降、制造业需求持续上升的特点。据中国钢铁工业协会披露，2024年制造业需求 占比提升至50%。 近5年中国钢材出口量持续增长，2025年钢材净出口量比2021年累计增长近6000万吨，年均增幅为 20%。 制造业中，用钢量大的行业依次是机械、金属制品、汽车、新能源、造船、家电、集装箱等，近几年在 全球具备产业优势的汽车、新能源 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in precious metal prices, including gold and silver, is primarily driven by a loose monetary environment and liquidity, following signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts and quantitative easing [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and restart quantitative easing by purchasing $40 billion in short-term government bonds has significantly influenced market expectations [1]. - Gold prices are projected to rise from $2,650 per ounce at the beginning of 2025 to over $4,400 per ounce by December, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 68% [1]. - The current market shows a unique characteristic where gold prices are rising despite high real interest rates, which traditionally have an inverse relationship with gold prices [1][2]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - The demand for gold is being driven by a combination of official reserves, institutional investments, and industrial applications, creating a balanced demand structure [3]. - Central banks are maintaining high levels of gold purchases, while individual investors are increasingly buying physical gold due to rising prices [2][3]. - The supply of gold is constrained, with known economic reserves estimated at only 60,000 to 70,000 tons, which can only sustain current extraction rates until 2032 [3]. Group 3: Long-term Trends - The long-term support for precious metal prices is attributed to the ongoing central bank gold buying spree and structural supply shortages, particularly in silver [5][6]. - The global economic landscape, characterized by persistent inflation and currency devaluation, enhances the appeal of precious metals as a store of value [4][5]. - Predictions indicate that gold prices could rise from $4,400 per ounce to $5,000 per ounce over the next 1-2 years, representing a cumulative upside of 13.6% [6]. Group 4: Future Variables - Key variables that could disrupt the upward trend in precious metal prices include changes in overseas financial conditions, advancements in AI technology applications, and the recovery of the Chinese economy [7].