Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of coking coal and coke futures prices is primarily driven by policy expectations and supply-demand dynamics in the market [1] Group 1: Policy Expectations - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee and the Central Political Bureau meeting are expected to influence demand-side policies for coal, which is a key focus for the market [1] - The market is closely monitoring potential demand-side policies that may emerge from these macroeconomic meetings [4] Group 2: Supply Concerns - Recent coal mine accidents in Inner Mongolia and increased safety inspections in Shaanxi province have raised concerns about the stability of coking coal supply in the fourth quarter [1] - The overall daily production of coking coal has increased to 77.9 million tons, but the supply remains under pressure due to safety regulations and inspections [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of October 17, the average daily production of coke from coking plants and steel mills was 1.1123 million tons, showing a decrease of 1.27 million tons week-on-week [2] - Coking coal inventories at independent coking plants decreased by 6.55 million tons, while steel mills' coke inventories fell by 11.38 million tons, indicating a reduction in overall inventory levels [2] - The demand for coking coal remains strong due to high iron output from downstream steel mills, which is expected to continue until the end of October [1][2] Group 4: Market Outlook - The current market conditions suggest a strong but potentially limited upward price movement for coking coal and coke, influenced by macroeconomic policies and seasonal demand changes [4] - The potential for further price increases exists if demand-side policies exceed expectations and if supply remains tight due to regulatory pressures [4]

国庆节过后，铁矿石期现货市场呈现出先涨后跌的走势。节后伊始，几内亚西芒杜矿区安全事故扰乱了 供应预期，叠加中方拟对美籍船舶征收特别港务费，引发了市场对运输成本上升的担忧，铁矿石价格一 度大幅拉涨。然而，随着中美贸易摩擦预期再度升温，加上国内钢铁终端需求持续疲软，在高估值的市 场环境下，铁矿石价格出现快速回调，进入补跌阶段。 关注宏观政策的变化 铁水产量出现小幅回落，进口矿日耗也同步下滑，45港疏港量近一个月持续走低，华北部分钢厂已择机 安排高炉检修。 7月下旬以来，铁矿石、焦炭等原料价格一直维持高位震荡态势，而成材价格的下跌速度却显著快于成 本端。以华东长流程钢厂为例，螺纹钢生产利润从年内高点时的近300元／吨，迅速回落至仅20元／ 吨，已处于盈亏边缘。 目前，市场的核心矛盾聚焦于钢厂极低的利润水平。尽管日均铁水产量仍维持在240万吨以上，但随着 亏损面的扩大，倒逼钢厂减产的逻辑持续发挥作用。倘若成材价格继续走弱，钢厂的检修范围有望进一 步扩大，铁水产量回落的预期也将得到进一步强化。 港口库存或逐步累积 近期，中美贸易摩擦预期再度升温，11月即将举行的APEC峰会能否促成中美元首会面，并达成"关税缓 释"，成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The decline in PVC futures prices is primarily driven by fundamental factors such as increased supply, unmet demand expectations, and export restrictions, rather than just the impact of rising trade friction expectations [1] Supply Pressure - Following supply-side reforms, the entry barriers in the PVC market have significantly increased, leading to a controlled capacity growth of around 5% in recent years. However, in 2025, the expansion pressure is expected to surge with over 2 million tons of new capacity planned, marking the highest expansion pressure in a decade [4] - New production facilities have been launched, including 200,000 tons/year from Qingdao Bay and 250,000 tons/year from Xinpu Chemical in the first half of the year. Additional facilities are set to come online in the second half, including 300,000 tons/year from Gansu Yaowang and 600,000 tons/year from Fujian Wanhua [4] - The operating rate of PVC production has significantly increased post-maintenance season, reaching over 80% in early October, with weekly production surpassing 500,000 tons for the first time [4] Weak Demand - The traditional peak demand season for PVC, known as "Golden September and Silver October," has shown a marked decline in recent years. Approximately 80% of PVC demand is linked to the real estate and infrastructure sectors, which have been underperforming [5] - From January to September, China's real estate development investment was 78,680 billion yuan, down 10.1% year-on-year, with various construction metrics also showing significant declines [5] - The overall operating rate for PVC downstream is currently at 40%, which, despite a 17 percentage point increase post-National Day, remains significantly lower than historical levels [5] Export Challenges - The domestic PVC market has faced a significant supply-demand imbalance, with prices dropping to a global low, closing the import window while opening the export window. However, exports are now facing severe challenges due to macroeconomic policies [6] - Since the outbreak of global trade friction in April, PVC export volumes have declined. India has raised anti-dumping duties on Chinese products, complicating export efforts [6] - India accounts for about 45% of China's PVC exports, and the implementation of BIS certification by the end of the year could drastically reduce export volumes, exacerbating domestic supply-demand issues [6] Cost Support - The PVC industry has been in a prolonged downturn, with companies facing losses. The latest losses for externally sourced acetylene-based PVC are nearing 800 yuan/ton [7] - Most PVC producers utilize integrated chlor-alkali facilities, where profits from caustic soda have historically offset PVC production losses. However, recent declines in caustic soda prices have compressed profits, leading to a combined loss of 45 yuan/ton for PVC and caustic soda [7] - If losses persist, production rates may decrease, potentially enhancing cost support for PVC [7] Overall Market Outlook - The current global trade friction and fundamental market conditions are creating a bearish outlook for PVC prices, which have reached a 10-year low. However, the combination of PVC and caustic soda losses may strengthen cost support, and potential policy interventions in the chemical industry could limit further price declines [9] - If "anti-involution" policies are effectively implemented, there may be medium to long-term valuation recovery potential for PVC prices [9]

早上好！本周全球股市再度遭遇"黑色星期五"，明天又是新的交易日，交易之前，一起来看重要资讯。 伊朗外交部：伊核协议限制条款已到期终止 据新华社报道，伊朗外交部18日发表声明说，《联合全面行动计划》（即伊核协议）及其所对应的联合 国安理会第2231号决议规定的10年期限于当日到期，决议中针对伊朗和平核计划所设的各项限制及相关 机制均应视为终止。 声明指出，第2231号决议于2015年7月由安理会通过，并将伊朗核问题列入防扩散议程。根据决议安 排，伊朗在履行核限制措施的同时，相关制裁应逐步解除并最终终止。伊方强调，既然规定的期限已经 结束，原有机制理应自然失效，伊朗核问题也应从安理会现有议程中移除。 特朗普称美军摧毁一艘"载有毒品"的大型潜艇 据央视报道，当地时间10月18日，美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文称，美军摧毁了一 艘"携带毒品、正驶向美国的大型潜艇"。他表示，美国情报部门确认该潜艇装载有毒品，船上共有4 名"毒贩"，其中两人被打死，另两人幸存。 特朗普指出，这两名幸存者分别来自厄瓜多尔和哥伦比亚，将被遣返至其原籍国接受拘留与起诉。他表 示，此次袭击没有美军人员伤亡。 泽连斯基：特朗普未明确 ...

事实上，自9月生猪价格逐步下行以来，生猪行业已经出现了从盈利到亏损的根本性利润变化，养殖积 极性也不同程度地受到影响。不过，魏鑫表示，由于目前处于亏损初期，养殖端节奏变化不大，相对的 低价还可以限制部分投机性养殖，减少市场波动。 "具体看，9月下旬后行业面临仔猪及育肥猪双亏的局面，淘汰母猪的情绪有所增加，产能去化速度较前 期有所提升，但超预期去产能现象还未发生。短期看，9月至今，出栏体重仍处于环比增长态势，猪价 的大幅下跌也未使得短期产能明显出清，前期的恐慌出栏可能主要集中在无法继续压栏的大体重猪上。 因此，在需求未大幅度提升的情况下，短期猪价反弹力度有限，但继续大幅下跌并维持在现金流成本以 下在较长时间内也难看到，因为短期出栏压力小幅缓解后，养殖端只要不出现恐慌性抛售，生猪价格或 维持底部震荡为主。"侯晓瑞说。 记者注意到，自5月底以来，国家相关部门已四度召开产能调控座谈会，政策力度逐渐加码，如6月农业 农村部会议提出到今年年底全国调减能繁母猪100万头，9月农业农村部畜牧兽医局会同国家发展和改革 委员会召开生猪产能调控企业座谈会，进一步落实产能调控要求。 当前，行业对此的落实情况如何？对此，魏鑫介绍说，从 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Precious metals experienced a collective decline after reaching historical highs, with gold down 1.82% to $4247.17 per ounce and silver down 4.12% to $51.87 per ounce as of October 17 [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to trading limits and margin requirements for gold and silver futures contracts due to increased volatility, effective from October 21, 2025 [7] - HSBC's report indicates strong investor sentiment and diversification by official institutions supporting gold prices, with expectations for a continued upward trend until 2026, despite potential resistance if the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are fewer than anticipated [7] Group 2: Geopolitical Developments - Geopolitical risks have eased, with discussions of a potential meeting between Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump in Budapest within two weeks [3] - Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed willingness for bilateral or trilateral talks to achieve peace, emphasizing the importance of U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine [4] - Trump stated it is time for Russia and Ukraine to reach an agreement to stop the conflict and avoid further casualties and unsustainable financial expenditures [6] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices continued to decline, with Brent crude falling below $61 per barrel and WTI around $57 per barrel, attributed to a combination of supply surplus and weak demand [11][12] - The oil market is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with OPEC+ expected to increase production, exacerbating the situation [12] - Global macroeconomic uncertainties and trade tensions are contributing to a risk-averse market environment, impacting oil prices negatively [13]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures have broken out of a prolonged consolidation phase, with the main contract reaching 76,840 yuan/ton, indicating a recovery from the decline observed in early September. The rise is attributed to marginal improvements in supply and demand fundamentals [2]. Supply Side - The supply side has shown signs of improvement, with increased production from certain mines alleviating concerns over supply uncertainty. Weekly lithium carbonate production reached approximately 21,100 tons as of October 17, marking a 431-ton increase from the previous week and setting a new historical high. Notably, production from salt lake sources grew by 7.2% [3]. - The resumption of operations at Zangge Mining on October 11 and ongoing resource verification in Jiangxi are expected to sustain high domestic lithium carbonate production, potentially exceeding 90,000 tons in October [3]. Demand Side - Demand for lithium carbonate remains robust, with significant growth in battery production and sales. In September, the combined production of power batteries and other batteries reached 151.2 GWh, reflecting an 8.3% month-on-month increase and a 35.4% year-on-year increase. Sales figures also showed strong performance, with a 9% month-on-month increase and a 42.2% year-on-year increase [3]. Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by strong supply and demand dynamics. While supply is recovering, the demand side is performing even better, suggesting that lithium carbonate will continue to experience a depletion trend [3]. - There are uncertainties regarding key lithium mine supplies, particularly with the Ningde Times' Xianxiawo mining area, which has seen reduced inventory and lower operating rates at related smelting plants. This situation has led downstream companies to rely more on the futures market for securing raw materials, supporting the price increase of lithium carbonate [4]. Future Outlook - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain a depletion trend and price increases due to the uncertain resumption timeline of the Ningde Times' mining area and stronger-than-expected seasonal demand. However, in the long term, significant price increases may attract more supply, and the overall supply-demand relationship is improving but not reversing [4][5]. - The expectation of reduced supply constraints has lessened, but the global lithium resource capacity is still in a release phase, which may exert pressure on the lithium carbonate fundamentals in the medium term [5].

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Precious metals experienced a collective decline after reaching historical highs, with gold down 1.82% to $4247.17 per ounce and silver down 4.12% to $51.87 per ounce as of October 17 [1] - Platinum and palladium futures saw more significant drops, with declines of 7.21% and 9.76% respectively [1] - The recent surge in gold and silver prices has led to increased volatility, prompting regulatory bodies to adjust trading limits and margin requirements for futures contracts [10] Group 2: Geopolitical Developments - Geopolitical risks have eased, with discussions of a potential meeting between Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump occurring within two weeks [3] - The dialogue between Trump and Putin included topics such as U.S.-Russia relations and the ongoing Ukraine conflict, with Trump emphasizing the need to end hostilities for economic cooperation [4][8] - Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed a willingness to engage in bilateral or trilateral talks to achieve peace, highlighting the importance of U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine [7] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices continued to decline, with Brent crude falling below $61 per barrel and WTI crude around $57 per barrel, attributed to oversupply and weak demand [12][13] - The oil market is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with OPEC+ expected to increase production, exacerbating the situation [13] - Geopolitical factors, including the recent ceasefire agreement in the Middle East and discussions between Trump and Putin, are expected to further weaken support for oil prices [14]

央行重启国债买卖的目的有三个：1.流动性管理；2.影响利率水平；3.配合政府发债。本轮央行买债始 于2024年8月，自2025年1月起，因债券收益率下行过快，央行暂停买卖国债操作。2024年10月9日，央 行公告称，央行、财政部建立联合工作组，并召开工作组首次正式会议。会议确立了联合工作组运行机 制，主要内容聚焦债券市场平稳运行和央行公开市场操作国债买卖。2025年9月第二次工作会议提前召 开，肯定了前期双方在央行国债买卖方面的紧密合作，同时提及为央行国债买卖操作提供适宜的市场环 境。在去年年底央行买入的国债逐步到期的背景下，年内央行重启国债买卖的概率仍存。 图为近一年国债收益率变化（单位：%、BP） 目前"弱现实+强预期"的宏观逻辑持续发酵，对债市形成"供给收敛、物价回升、风险偏好提升"三大利 空效应。系列政策出台后，市场对通缩的定价明显减弱。从当前公布的通胀数据可以看出，9月PPI同比 降幅继续收窄至2.3%，核心CPI同比上涨1%，其中，有低基数及金价大涨等原因，但从整体看，通胀处 于筑底回升的状态中，但上升的关键仍在需求端。 从资产比价看，今年以来债券性价比明显降低，超长债基当前仍处于亏损状态，导致新 ...

2025年上半年，在成本下行和养殖技术提升的背景下，生猪养殖行业整体呈现出"量增利更增"的特点， 龙头企业如牧原股份净利润同比暴增逾1000%。多位分析人士表示，猪企业绩增长主要得益于成本控制 能力提升，行业也面临规模扩张与资金链平衡的挑战。进入三季度，生猪价格持续下跌。受此影响，上 市猪企整体呈现"销售增长、收入下降"的特征。 营收分化明显 从2025年上半年生猪养殖业务的收入来看，牧原股份以超过750亿元的营收规模遥遥领先，稳居行业榜 首。温氏股份位列行业第二，营收规模约327亿元。新希望（144亿元）与海大集团（97亿元）分列第 三、第四位。其余上市猪企生猪养殖业务的营收均未突破50亿元。 企业的盈利水平高度依赖成本控制能力。牧原股份、巨星农牧、温氏股份、神农集团等企业凭借精细化 管理和战略调整，将成本优化至行业领先水平，其净利润同比增幅均超过150%。 此外，2025年上半年行业整体出栏量大幅提升。24家上市猪企累计销售生猪1.09亿头，同比增长 31.95%，增速明显提升，印证了"以量补价"的策略成效。 记者了解到，今年上半年，生猪养殖成本已从2024年的14元/公斤降至12元/公斤，部分企业单月养 ...