Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant increase in PX and PTA futures prices, with PX rising from 6258 yuan/ton to 7272 yuan/ton (16% increase) and PTA from 4378 yuan/ton to 5046 yuan/ton (15% increase) since late October 2025 [1] - The polyester industry is facing a core contradiction due to long-term low production, leading to an expanding PX supply-demand gap expected to continue into 2026 [1] - Polyester apparent demand growth has exceeded expectations, with production reaching 72.87 million tons from January to November 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [1] Group 2 - In 2026, the growth rate of polyester production capacity is expected to slow, with an estimated increase of around 4.7% (approximately 4.15 million tons) [2] - The upstream PTA and PX capacity growth is significantly slowing, with PX expected to have zero new production in 2025 and only 3.6 million tons of new capacity in 2026, which will not be operational until the second half of the year [2] - Current PTA social inventory has dropped to around 2.15 million tons, a historical low, and PTA processing fees remain below 200 yuan/ton, indicating a tight supply situation [2] Group 3 - December is a traditional off-season for polyester demand, with seasonal weakening of orders in the terminal weaving industry and accelerated inventory accumulation [3] - Rapid price increases in raw materials PX and PTA have led to significant rises in polyester prices, boosting speculative inventory demand in the downstream [3] - There is a potential risk of polyester factories reducing production and lowering load ahead of schedule due to compressed profit margins from rapid price increases [3]

为深入贯彻国家金融发展战略，建信期货与建设银行总行研修中心(研究院)紧密合作，共同打造了这一专业化、系统化的培训课程体系。 课程体系全面覆盖五大模块助力专业提升 本系列课程特邀建信期货领导、业务骨干参与录制，内容共设五个模块、十五门课程，全面覆盖期货业务各领域。 公司概况与业务展望模块，系统梳理期货市场发展历程，深入解读建信期货发展脉络与课程体系架构，帮助学员夯实认知基础。 产品与服务场景模块，聚焦建信期货母子联动特色产品与服务，着力提升学员在期货产品服务营销领域的实战能力。 在党的二十届四中全会审议通过的"十五五"规划建议明确"稳步发展期货、衍生品"战略的背景下，建信期货积极响应国家政策号召，落实建设银行总行党 委部署要求，正式推出"建期研学"系列客户营销实战演练精品课程。该系列课程的发布，标志着公司在服务国家战略、推动期货行业人才培养方面迈出了 重要的一步。 服务"五篇大文章"模块，下设两大主题，围绕乡村振兴"圈链群"服务新模式、数智化赋能期货业务展开深度阐释，明晰公司服务国家战略的功能定位。 期货基础知识模块，从理论到实操层层递进，助力学员筑牢期货业务专业根基。 基金证券业务模块，特邀建信基金专家授课， ...

Group 1: U.S. Stock Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed strength with all three major indices rising for four consecutive days, with the S&P 500 reaching a record high of 6909.79 points [1] - The Dow Jones index increased by 0.16% to 48442.41 points, while the Nasdaq composite index rose by 0.57% to 23561.84 points, driven by gains in large tech stocks [1] - The "fear index" VIX fell to 14, marking its lowest level in a year [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP for Q3 grew at an annualized rate of 4.3%, surpassing both Q2's growth of 3.8% and market expectations of 3.2% [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January is 13.3%, with an 86.7% chance of maintaining the current rate [1] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices reached historical highs, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.02% to $4515 per ounce and silver futures increasing by 4.44% to $71.61 per ounce [2] - The price of platinum rose by 7.46% to $2289.54 per ounce, while palladium increased by 4.43% to $1857.46 per ounce [2] Group 4: Base Metals Market - LME copper futures rose by $136 per ton to $12060 per ton, marking a new historical high [5] - Other base metals showed mixed performance, with LME aluminum down by $2 per ton, while LME zinc, lead, and nickel saw increases [5] Group 5: Market Drivers for Precious Metals - The recent surge in precious metals is driven by a loose monetary environment and signals from the Federal Reserve indicating potential rate cuts and quantitative easing [10] - The demand for gold is supported by central bank purchases, institutional investment, and industrial applications, creating a robust demand structure [12] - Supply constraints in gold production are expected to persist, with known reserves diminishing and production growth slowing [12] Group 6: Future Outlook for Precious Metals - Short-term catalysts for precious metals include ongoing Federal Reserve rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties [14] - Long-term structural support is anticipated from continued central bank gold purchases and increasing technological demand for gold [15] - Predictions suggest gold prices could rise from $4400 per ounce to $5000 per ounce in the next 1-2 years, reflecting a cumulative increase of 13.6% [15]

白银供应短缺或延续 在"期货大家谈——2025期货业盘点"系列访谈第七期中，齐盛期货贵金属首席分析师刘旭峰就2026年贵金属市场走势进行了深 度解读。他认为，贵金属的商品属性有望取代金融与货币属性，成为驱动价格的主导力量，白银供需缺口的扩大或对价格形成 支撑，结合海外宏观环境变化，投资者需重点关注流动性风险。 多重风险交织 刘旭峰表示，美元信用体系的长期影响力呈现弱化趋势，全球央行持续的购金行为是非美国家货币实力增强的体现，也反映了 对美元资产的分散化需求。值得注意的是，2025年中国央行购金力度已有所放缓，2026年是否暂停增持有待关注。 "尽管中长期宏观环境对贵金属价格构成一定支撑，但多重风险点不容忽视。"刘旭峰认为，重点应防范流动性风险，2020年3月 的市场波动表明，在极端流动性紧缩的情况下，黄金、白银等资产亦难以独善其身。此外，通胀反弹、经济实现软着陆及美联 储货币政策边际收紧的可能性，均可能扭转当前的市场预期。 刘旭峰建议，投资者策略上应关注向上的机会，在把握结构性行情的同时，对短线极端波动保持警惕。若海外经济在降息周期 中企稳反弹，则需重新评估中长期看多白银的逻辑基础。 刘旭峰表示，2021年— ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the domestic natural rubber market is experiencing a phase of inventory consumption, with supply pressures easing due to the seasonal cessation of rubber tapping in major production areas like Yunnan and Hainan [1][2] - As of December 2025, the two main production areas for natural rubber in China, Yunnan and Hainan, have entered the cessation phase, leading to a significant reduction in raw material output and a reliance on inventory for market circulation [1] - The domestic automotive market shows positive trends, with production and sales of vehicles in November 2025 reaching 3.532 million and 3.429 million units respectively, marking a month-on-month increase of 5.1% and 3.2% [2] Group 2 - The tire market in China is characterized by stable growth in total volume, structural optimization, and internal-external coordination, with the production of rubber tire outer casings showing a slight year-on-year decline of 2.6% in November 2025 [3] - As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in the Qingdao area reached 515,200 tons, reflecting a weekly increase of 1,630 tons, indicating a continuous rise in inventory for eight consecutive weeks [3] - The heavy truck market, a key indicator of natural rubber demand, has shown a strong recovery, with November 2025 sales reaching approximately 100,000 units, a 46% increase compared to the same month last year [2]

Core Viewpoint - Despite weak fundamentals, iron ore prices have rebounded due to macroeconomic positive expectations, with short-term price resilience anticipated, while medium-term downward pressure remains due to oversupply concerns in 2026 [1][2][4] Supply and Demand Summary - The current iron ore market is characterized by increasing supply and decreasing demand, with port inventories continuing to accumulate. Global iron ore shipments have risen, reaching a year-to-date high with a year-on-year increase of 17.3% [1] - Daily average pig iron production from 247 steel mills has decreased by 1.16% week-on-week to 2.2655 million tons, marking a continuous five-week reduction and a year-on-year decline of 1.2%. Steel mills are cautious in purchasing imported iron ore, leading to a 1.2% decrease in inventory week-on-week and an 8.9% year-on-year reduction [1] - Port iron ore inventories have increased by 0.5% week-on-week to 155.1263 million tons, marking a four-week accumulation and a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [1] Price Movements - Despite weak fundamentals, iron ore prices have shown resilience, with the price of the most suitable delivery warehouse receipt rising by 10 yuan/ton to 796 yuan/ton, and the main iron ore futures contract increasing by 19.5 yuan/ton to 780 yuan/ton, narrowing the spot-futures spread from 22 yuan/ton to 16 yuan/ton [1] Policy and Economic Outlook - The recent rebound in iron ore prices is primarily driven by macroeconomic policy expectations, with the government planning to introduce more incremental policies in 2026 to boost consumption and stabilize investment [2] - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to exhibit a "good start" effect due to the commencement of the 14th Five-Year Plan, alongside potential seasonal weather disruptions affecting supply from the Southern Hemisphere [2] Demand Projections - China's crude steel demand is projected to decline by 1.5% year-on-year in 2026, with a significant drop in real estate-related steel consumption expected to decrease by 10.4% [3] - Non-real estate steel consumption is anticipated to decrease marginally by 2.0% due to reduced steel intensity in investment, despite potential increases in infrastructure and manufacturing investments [3] - Crude steel exports are expected to rise by approximately 1 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 7.2% due to optimized export strategies and competitive pricing [3] Supply Projections - Global iron ore supply is expected to increase by approximately 56 million tons in 2026, marking the beginning of a loose supply cycle, with significant contributions from major mining companies [3] - The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea is expected to add about 20 million tons of supply, while major mining companies like Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP, and FMG are projected to contribute an additional 29 million tons collectively [3] Market Balance - The supply-demand balance indicates a projected decrease in China's iron ore demand by approximately 27 million tons, with a global oversupply of about 60 million tons expected in the maritime market [4] - Port prices for the most suitable delivery warehouse receipts may test the $85/ton threshold [4]

Group 1 - The core driver of the recent surge in silver prices includes macro liquidity easing, intensified supply-demand conflicts, and increased investment demand [1][2][3] - The Federal Reserve's three interest rate cuts this year and expectations for further cuts in 2026 have led to a decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.16%, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver [1] - Structural supply shortages in the global silver market have persisted for several years, with industrial demand from sectors like photovoltaics and AI growing rapidly, while mineral supply remains constrained [1][2] Group 2 - As of December 18, the largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust (SLV), reported a holding of 16,018.29 tons, an increase of 760.37 tons or 4.98% from the low on November 21 [2] - The upcoming results of the U.S. "232 investigation" on silver, expected on January 17, 2026, have created uncertainty regarding tariff policies, prompting investors to stockpile physical silver [2][3] - The recent price increase in silver futures is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic easing, structural supply shortages, and heightened investment demand, with expectations for silver prices to remain above $60 per ounce [3]

Core Viewpoint - The glass industry is experiencing a significant reduction in production capacity amid ongoing profit compression, leading to a generally loose supply-demand balance in the future [1] Industry Overview - As of the end of November, there are a total of 283 float glass production lines in the country, with 217 lines in operation and a daily melting capacity of 155,155 tons, which is a decrease of 5,400 tons from the previous month and a year-on-year decline of 2.71% [1] - The industry's capacity utilization rate stands at 80.13% [1] Market Dynamics - Throughout the year, glass prices have shown multiple instances of rapid rebounds due to the implementation of anti-involution policies and the cold repair of certain production lines; however, these supply-side changes often lead to short-term market shocks [1] - The overall market for glass prices has remained sluggish, with weak downstream orders contributing to a lack of sustained price increases [1] Inventory Situation - High inventory levels have been a key factor hindering the stabilization of glass futures prices, with current inventories at float glass factories significantly higher than the same period last year [1] Future Outlook - The overall supply-demand pattern for glass is expected to remain loose, and without policy measures to stimulate demand, the potential for price rebounds appears limited [1]

王笑对2026年衍生品市场进行了展望。他表示，2026年全球地缘局势进入缓和期，经济结构的修复要关 注政策导向及落地情况、内外部的经济共振机会和内生性的自然修复。2026年资产价格可能"抢跑"，但 基本面的绝对变化或体现在2027年。在资产表现上，在经济结构调整的背景下，企业净资产收益率 (ROE)修复有望推动估值上涨。对商品而言，2026年基本面没有较大改变，不同品种的分化走势仍将持 续，关注价格反转的可能性。风险因素方面，需关注地缘局势缓和不及预期对资产价格的负面影响。 王笑随后主持以"大咖面对面——全域资产配置与跨境投资新机遇"为主题的圆桌论坛。论坛邀约不同领 域的行业专家，以不同的资产视角对2026年宏观经济和资产变化进行了探讨。在跨市场、跨行业的大咖 对话中，4位行业顶尖专家针对明年的经济周期定位、大类资产配置机会、固收和债券的投资观点、量 化市场发展结构等进行了热烈的讨论。 会议为期2天，共设1场主论坛和9场分论坛，分论坛议题涵盖有色金属及贵金属板块、黑色和能化板 块、新能源板块、"十五五"产业规划、资产配置等，各路专家、分析师与嘉宾围绕热点问题进行了深入 讨论。 本次会议的视频回放将于12月29 ...

Core Insights - The annual strategy conference of Guotai Junan Futures was held on December 22, 2026, focusing on macro trends, industrial upgrades, asset allocation, and the development of the derivatives market [1] - Experts from various fields provided insights on China's economic recovery, the outlook for the A-share market, and the future of the derivatives market [2][3] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Sheng Songcheng, the director of the China Chief Economist Forum, emphasized the need for continuous policy support for economic recovery, balancing investment and consumption, and the impact of RMB appreciation on asset performance [1] - The overall economic operation is stable, but further recovery requires sustained policy efforts [1] Group 2: A-Share Market Perspective - Fang Yi, Chief Strategist at Guotai Haitong Securities, expressed optimism about the A-share market, predicting a significant development cycle starting in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index potentially reaching new highs [2] - The transformation of the underlying logic of the Chinese stock market is evident, as concerns over U.S.-China conflicts and economic visibility are diminishing, leading to a more favorable environment for capital markets [2] Group 3: Derivatives Market Forecast - Wang Xiao, Research Director at Guotai Junan Futures, projected that 2026 would be a year of adjustment and recovery in the global geopolitical landscape, with a focus on policy guidance and economic resonance [3] - The K-shaped economic divergence will continue, with high-growth industries and traditional economic cycles showing distinct trends, while the potential for price reversals should be monitored [3] Group 4: Forum Discussions - A roundtable forum was held to discuss macroeconomic and asset changes for 2026, featuring industry experts who explored economic cycle positioning, asset allocation opportunities, and developments in quantitative markets [4] - The conference included one main forum and nine sub-forums covering topics such as precious metals, black energy, new energy, and asset allocation strategies, fostering in-depth discussions among experts and analysts [4]