上证50指数下跌0.28%，对应上证50指数期权日成交量和持仓量分别为2.21万张和8.21万张，成交量PCR 值和持仓量PCR值分别为64.91%和63.96%，日内交易看跌期权比例小幅抬升。HO看跌期权在行权价 3000点附近持仓极高，短期上证50指数在该区域预计有较强支撑。3月平值隐波均值为15.4%，与30日 历史波动率相比大小相当，期权估值整体不高，后期隐波回落空间亦有限。 综合而言，临近春节长假，标的指数以震荡行情为主。期权卖方应尽量避免持仓过节，买方亦应严控仓 位，注意防范尾部风险；股指期货多单投资者可考虑适当买入一定虚值看跌期权，以防范长假期间市场 的不确定风险。 （文章来源：期货日报） 周四，沪深两市交投平淡。期权标的指数方面，科创50、创业板指、中证500和中证1000指数均有0.9% 至1.8%不等的涨幅，上证50和沪深300指数则基本处于窄幅震荡之中。 中证1000指数上涨0.91%，对应中证1000指数期权日成交量和持仓量分别为25.26万张和34.93万张，成 交量PCR值78.51%，持仓量PCR值95.91%，环比上涨3个百分点，MO看涨、看跌期权出现不同程度的 减仓。持仓分布 ...

当前碳酸锂市场多空分歧较大，行情瞬息万变。随着市场情绪逐步平复，各方目光正聚焦于两大基本面 关键变量：即将落地的回收新政和积极响应的澳洲矿山政策。2026年 4月1日，国内锂电回收行业将迎 来历史性节点——工业和信息化部等六部门联合发布的《新能源汽车废旧动力电池回收和综合利用管理 暂行办法》将正式施行。新规以法治化手段构建规范、安全、高效的废旧动力电池回收利用体系，为产 业高质量发展筑牢"最后一公里"防线。这将从根本上改变回收行业的竞争格局，加速淘汰不规范的小作 坊，推动行业向规模化、高值化转型，最终提升国内战略金属资源的自给率，降低对海外初级矿源的依 赖。 市场数据表明，近3个月金属锂价格持续上涨，导致一辆搭载80kWh电池的纯电动汽车成本增加约3800 元。与此同时，汽车制造中大量使用的铜、铝等金属材料也在快速涨价。通常情况下，一辆中型智能电 动汽车约需200公斤铝和80公斤铜。近3个月内，单车铝成本增加600元，铜成本增加1200元。以此推 算，单车成本累计上涨4000~7000元。成本压力正在倒逼行业调整竞争逻辑。2025年中国汽车行业利润 率为 4.1%，在原材料价格整体上扬的挤压下，车企已难以延续 ...

图为春节前5个交易日上涨指数涨跌幅（单位：%） 可提前布局新质生产力、扩大内需、产业升级等相关板块 结合2026年春节前上证综指、深证成指等主要指数震荡回暖的走势看，2月下旬市场有望延续震荡上行态势，重点关注政策落地与产业催化的 共振效应。资金大概率会继续围绕高景气赛道布局，进一步巩固市场结构性行情。 本周股指止跌回升，市场情绪转好，能源板块接力领涨。随着春节长假来临，资金相对谨慎，市场成交有所回落。长假期间海外市场依然正常 交易，需警惕海外风险对节后A股走势的影响。 图为2026年以来申万一级行业涨跌幅（单位：%） 2月6日以来，道琼斯指数站上5万点，日经指数同步出现大幅上涨，海外资本市场多头情绪高涨。A股自前期受贵金属板块调整拖累后也逐步企 稳回升，整体呈现震荡上涨走势。近日工业和信息化部、中央网信办、中央空管办、国家发展改革委、中国民航局等五部门联合印发了《关于 加强信息通信业能力建设支撑低空基础设施发展的实施意见》，明确5G/通感融合、低空通信导航、无人机物流等十大任务，带动无人机、空 管、通航运营等相关板块走强。2月9日，字节跳动新产品Seedance2.0正式上线，产品聚焦AI视频创作、数字人互动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 10-year government bond yield has broken through the 1.8% to 1.9% range due to pre-holiday positioning, but further declines require additional positive factors to drive the market [1][5]. Monetary Policy - The central bank's report on monetary policy execution for Q4 2025 indicates a more optimistic view on the economic fundamentals and inflation compared to the previous quarter [1]. - The central bank emphasizes the flexible and efficient use of various policy tools, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, to maintain ample liquidity and relatively loose financing conditions [1][3]. - The central bank is expected to utilize tools like MLF, reverse repos, and government bond transactions to achieve liquidity supply, with a general expectation of one interest rate cut within the year [1][3]. Inflation and Economic Outlook - January's inflation data shows a PPI increase of 0.4%, exceeding expectations, while CPI rose by only 0.2%, indicating weak consumer confidence [4]. - The expectation is for a "moderate recovery" in inflation supported by policy, although short-term inflation expectations are unlikely to be invalidated [4]. Market Dynamics - The bond market is expected to transition from a unilateral trend to a phase of range-bound fluctuations due to multiple factors, including economic recovery, moderately loose monetary policy, and increased supply pressure in the bond market [5]. - The 10-year government bond yield has slightly increased to the 1.8% to 1.9% range, with the central bank's bond purchase scale increasing by 50 to 100 billion yuan, reflecting its role in managing yield fluctuations [3][5]. - The yield curve is anticipated to remain steep, with the spread between 30-year and 10-year bonds maintained at a high level of 40 to 50 basis points [5].

政策引领、科技赋能 在政策引领与技术革新浪潮的双重驱动下，我国期货行业正加速迈向以科技赋能为核心、服务实体经济 为导向的高质量发展新阶段。2024年，国务院印发《关于加强监管防范风险推动资本市场高质量发展的 若干意见》（即"新国九条"）及配套文件《关于加强监管防范风险促进期货市场高质量发展的意见》， 明确将"高质量发展"确立为期货行业的核心目标，其中"数字金融"是实现这一目标的关键路径。在此背 景下，数字化已从行业发展的"可选项"转变为关乎生存与竞争力的"必选项"。 政策引领行业数字化转型 2024年，"新国九条"及配套政策的出台，标志着期货行业进入以高质量发展为主线的新周期。其 中，"数字金融"被明确列为金融"五篇大文章"之一，成为推动期货行业转型升级的核心引擎。政策引导 期货行业通过科技赋能，全面提升交易、结算、风控、合规、研究等全链条运行效率，构建智能化风险 监测预警体系，增强服务实体经济的适配性与穿透力。这一政策导向正在重塑行业格局：期货市场从价 格发现与风险对冲的场所，正逐步演进为覆盖采购、生产、销售等全产业链环节的综合风险管理平台。 期货行业的发展目标也更加清晰——"以科技驱动为核心、以服务实体经 ...

"如今，公司业务重心牢牢锚定现货流通，紧盯钢厂生产节奏、下游工地需求甚至是区域库存变化，通 过'小步快跑'赚取稳定价差。"李保伟说。 新春走基层，深入产业一线，感受时代脉搏。期货日报记者将带您走进田间地头、工厂车间，感受最真 切的脉动。一个个鲜活的故事，生动诠释着期货工具如何深入产业肌理，将不确定的市场风险转化为可 管理的成本，让生产者可以心无旁骛地抓生产、稳经营。这个春节因一份"心中有数"的踏实而充满了希 望。金融工具的护航，正成为这个新春里无数奋斗者稳生产、谋发展、创未来的坚实底气。 新春佳节临近，郑州大街小巷张灯结彩，年味一天比一天浓。当大多数人正忙碌着置办年货时，郑州南 四环的钢材市场里，许多钢贸商却正在反复权衡一年一度的"冬储"决策。 从"试错"到"稳健"转型 望着墙上"优秀代理商""诚信合作伙伴"等牌匾，郑州金诚钢铁贸易有限公司总经理李保伟向记者讲述了 他们近20年的发展历程。 当谈及如何看待钢材市场新年趋势时，他冷静而务实地说："我们不做'赌行情'的事，只会下别人不愿 做的'笨功夫'。" 据了解，李保伟早期也试过很多"时髦"操作，结果踩了坑，亏得一塌糊涂。不过，他很快醒悟：脱离现 货根基的金融操 ...

今天是节前最后一个交易日，祝各位交易顺利！ 先来看海外市场表现。截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货价格收跌3.08%，报4941.4美元/盎司；COMEX白银 期货价格收跌10.62%，报75.01美元/盎司。 截至收盘，美股三大股指收盘普跌，道指跌1.33%，纳指跌2.02%，标普跌1.57%。 国际油价12日下跌。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所3月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌1.79美元/桶，收于 62.84美元/桶，跌幅为2.77%；4月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌1.88美元/桶，收于67.52美元/ 桶，跌幅为2.71%。 消息面上，当地时间2月12日，纽约联邦储备银行发布报告称，美国消费者和企业承担了特朗普政府加 征关税的大部分成本，比例约为90%，与政府此前"由外国承担关税"的说法形成对比。 报告评估显示，去年美国平均关税水平从2.6%升至13%。其中，1月至8月期间，美国承担了94%的关税 冲击；9月至10月为92%；11月为86%。研究指出，在特朗普首个任期内的经验显示，外国出口商并未 显著降价，关税成本几乎"100%转嫁至美国进口价格"。 美国国会预算办公室（CBO）本周亦发布类似结论，称更高关税直 ...

先来看海外市场表现。截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货价格收跌3.08%，报4941.4美元/盎司；COMEX白银 期货价格收跌10.62%，报75.01美元/盎司。 截至收盘，美股三大股指收盘普跌，道指跌1.33%，纳指跌2.02%，标普跌1.57%。 国际油价12日下跌。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所3月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌1.79美元/桶，收于 62.84美元/桶，跌幅为2.77%；4月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌1.88美元/桶，收于67.52美元/ 桶，跌幅为2.71%。 消息面上，当地时间2月12日，纽约联邦储备银行发布报告称，美国消费者和企业承担了特朗普政府加 征关税的大部分成本，比例约为90%，与政府此前"由外国承担关税"的说法形成对比。 报告评估显示，去年美国平均关税水平从2.6%升至13%。其中，1月至8月期间，美国承担了94%的关税 冲击；9月至10月为92%；11月为86%。研究指出，在特朗普首个任期内的经验显示，外国出口商并未 显著降价，关税成本几乎"100%转嫁至美国进口价格"。 对当前的美伊局势，赵若晨认为，其为原油注入的溢价中枢在3~5美元/桶。她表示，当前地缘的定价权 重大于基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market showed stronger-than-expected performance in January, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 130,000 and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, impacting market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [1]. Group 1: Employment Data - The U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs in January, significantly exceeding market expectations [1]. - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, indicating a tightening labor market [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Expectations - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 94.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in March [1]. - Market expectations for future rate cuts have shifted from June to July following the strong employment data [1]. - Federal Reserve officials have signaled a cautious approach to further rate cuts, with a preference for patience in assessing economic conditions [1]. Group 3: Economic Commentary - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester expressed a preference for maintaining current rates while evaluating the impact of recent rate cuts [1]. - Kansas City Fed President Esther George emphasized the need to keep rates in a "slightly restrictive" range due to inflation remaining above target levels [1]. - Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi warned that despite the strong employment report, the job market remains fragile and susceptible to shocks [2].

Core Viewpoint - After the recent price adjustment, iron ore valuations are at a neutral to low level, and with the dual support of steel mills' phased resumption after the holiday and expectations of macro policy strengthening, further downside is limited. However, throughout the year, iron ore is expected to enter a phase of oversupply, with price levels likely to decline further [1][10]. Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Since the end of January, iron ore prices have declined primarily due to two reasons: changes in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts and liquidity easing after the appointment of the new Federal Reserve chairman, and cautious raw material restocking by steel mills, with iron ore inventories at 247 steel mills down by 5.2968 million tons year-on-year [2]. - As of February 11, the main iron ore futures contract closed at 762.5 yuan/ton, indicating limited further downside in the current price position [1][10]. Group 2: Production and Inventory Insights - Despite the impact of the Baosteel incident, the average daily pig iron output among 247 steel mills has remained between 2.27 million and 2.29 million tons this year, suggesting a potential for phased production increases as steel mills aim to meet annual production targets [3]. - With low iron ore inventories at steel mills, there is a high likelihood of increased restocking efforts once production resumes after the holiday [4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - The first quarter is traditionally a low supply season for iron ore, with historical data indicating a decrease in shipments by 9.5 to 10 million tons compared to the previous quarter. However, due to fewer extreme weather events this winter and a later Spring Festival, January's global iron ore shipments remained high [6]. - The global iron ore shipment volume was 25.353 million tons in the first week of February, down by 5.593 million tons week-on-week, indicating a potential supply-demand mismatch in the weeks following the holiday [7]. Group 4: Policy and Economic Context - Expectations for policy strengthening remain, with the Central Economic Work Conference prioritizing domestic demand expansion as a key economic task for 2026. The People's Bank of China has already implemented a 0.25 percentage point reduction in structural monetary policy rates among other measures, with further policy support anticipated around the National People's Congress [8]. - The resilience of exports and gradual recovery in manufacturing demand may provide a boost to iron ore demand [8]. Group 5: Valuation and Long-term Projections - Current iron ore spot prices are around 100 USD/ton, which is near a five-year low. The profit margin for long-process rebar has widened to 126 yuan/ton compared to iron ore import profits, indicating that both absolute and relative valuations are at a neutral to low level [9]. - In the medium to long term, iron ore is expected to enter a phase of oversupply, with supply increases primarily from emerging mines and major producers. It is projected that iron ore supply will increase by 40 to 45 million tons by 2026, with a significant contribution from the Simandou project [9].