A供应持续增长 海外新增产能逐步释放 近几年，随着全球铁矿石需求持续增长和矿端企业现金流持续改善，以中国宝武和澳洲力拓为代表的钢 铁行业龙头企业纷纷加大矿山投资力度，提升铁矿石资源保障能力。从产能分布区域来看，新增矿山主 要集中在几内亚、南非、澳大利亚、巴西等矿产资源丰富的国家。 自2022年以来，我国在矿产资源开发方面推出了"基石计划"，以提升重要矿产资源保障能力。不过，近 两年在矿山安全生产要求提高、环保政策趋严等因素的影响下，国内矿山产能释放节奏明显放缓。根据 国家统计局公布的数据，今年1—5月国内铁矿石原矿产量为4.14亿吨，同比下降4303万吨，降幅为 9.4%。同期，根据上海钢联的调研统计数据，全国433家矿山铁精粉产量为1.14亿吨，同比下降1064万 吨，降幅为8.5%。由此可见，国产矿供给呈现收缩态势，明显不及市场预期。 整体而言，今年上半年在铁矿石进口量显著下降且国产矿供给下降的情况下，国内铁矿石供给总体呈现 显著收缩的状态。展望下半年，随着海外矿山发运逐步回归常态以及国内港口库存压力缓解，铁矿石进 目前，由中国宝武和澳洲力拓等企业共同投资开发的几内亚西芒杜项目，被认为是未来5到10年全球 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent emphasis on advancing the national unified market construction and regulating low-price disorderly competition is expected to enhance market expectations for supply-side reforms, leading to a rebound in rebar futures prices, although the upward momentum may slow as market sentiment stabilizes and fundamentals take precedence [1] Group 1: Supply Side Dynamics - There is an increasing expectation in the market for steel mills to reduce production, particularly in light of the recent "anti-involution" meeting and potential production restrictions in Tangshan from July 4-15 [2] - The current steel industry situation is significantly different from 2016, with this year's steelmaking profits reaching the highest level in three years, and the total profit for the black metal smelting and rolling industry from January to May turning profitable at 31.6 billion yuan [2] - Despite the high profits in steelmaking, the willingness of steel mills to actively reduce production remains low, and the overall impact of the Tangshan production restrictions is expected to be limited [2] Group 2: Demand Pressure - The market anticipates a decline in rebar demand as the end-user demand enters a low season, although recent consumption has shown resilience with a weekly apparent consumption of 2.2487 million tons, slightly exceeding market expectations [3] - The total inventory of rebar has seen a slight decrease of 37,900 tons, maintaining a total of 5.4521 million tons, indicating that the turning point for inventory accumulation has not yet appeared [3] - The ongoing adjustment cycle in the real estate sector and suboptimal infrastructure funding are expected to continue to suppress rebar demand, with high temperatures and rainy weather in July further limiting demand improvement [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - Overall, the rebar market is expected to enter a phase of weak supply and demand as the low season deepens, with limited upward potential until new macroeconomic benefits emerge, particularly around the pressure level of 3,100 yuan per ton [4]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of propylene futures and options on July 22, 2025, by Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange marks a significant development in the domestic futures market, providing essential risk management tools for the propylene industry chain [1][2][4]. Group 1: Industry Impact - The introduction of propylene futures and options is expected to enhance the risk management capabilities of upstream and downstream enterprises in the propylene industry, addressing issues such as insufficient demand and price volatility [1][2]. - The listing of these financial instruments will create strong linkages with other chemical products like polypropylene and methanol, thereby improving the futures product system within the chemical industry [2][4]. - The new futures and options are anticipated to contribute to the healthy development of the propylene industry chain, enhancing its resilience against risks and promoting industry transformation and upgrading [4]. Group 2: Company Perspectives - Sinopec, as the largest supplier of propylene in China, views the launch as a step towards a more mature domestic futures market, providing robust tools for product inventory preservation and processing hedging [2]. - Donghua Energy emphasizes that the new futures and options fill a gap in risk management for the industry, allowing companies to lock in prices and mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations [3]. - Jineng Chemical, a key player in the propylene sector, expresses optimism about the role of propylene futures in controlling costs and managing risks, indicating a proactive approach to participating in these new financial instruments [3].

Group 1 - The concept of "basis" is increasingly discussed and utilized in the cotton textile industry, reflecting the deep integration of cotton futures and the spot market, which is profoundly impacting the industry's development [1] - The cotton spinning industry in China is experiencing a decline in revenue and profit, influenced by regional capacity restructuring and increased competition, as well as complex international conditions and rising tariff barriers [2][3] - The correlation between cotton futures prices and the domestic spot price index CC Index3128B has remained high, with a correlation coefficient above 0.9, indicating a strong relationship between the two markets [3] Group 2 - Cotton enterprises are actively exploring new models of utilizing futures, with companies like Zhongmian Group adopting a resource control model to enhance their operational stability and risk management [4] - Large trading companies are integrating futures tools into their operations, using warehouse receipt pledge financing to support upstream cotton purchases and employing basis trading and options trading to lock in profits and mitigate risks [5] - Small and medium-sized enterprises are adopting flexible strategies to participate in the futures market, often relying on large trading firms for risk management and financing through warehouse receipt pledge financing [6] Group 3 - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has expanded its business model to provide new financing tools for cotton textile enterprises, addressing their significant financing needs [6][7] - In 2018, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange launched a comprehensive business platform that allows entities to trade warehouse receipts, catering to diverse procurement and financing needs [7] - The scale of warehouse receipt repurchase business reached 3.9 billion yuan in 2019, with a significant portion attributed to cotton warehouse receipts, indicating a growing reliance on warehouse receipt financing among enterprises [7]

期货日报网讯(记者韩乐)7月8日，郑商所发布丙烯期货和期权上市交易有关事项的通知，丙烯期货和期 权将分别于2025年7月22日9时和21时上市交易。同日，郑商所发布了丙烯期货和期权合约及相关规则。 根据通知，期货方面，首批上市交易的丙烯期货合约为PL2601、PL2602、PL2603、PL2604、PL2605、 PL2606、PL2607。具体来看，丙烯期货合约交易代码为PL，交易单位为20吨/手，交割单位为20吨/ 手，报价单位为元(人民币)/吨，最小变动价位为1元/吨，合约月份涵盖1至12月。交易指令每次最小下 单量为1手，限价指令每次最大下单量为1000手，市价指令每次最大下单量为200手。最后交易日为合约 交割月份的第10个交易日，最后交割日为合约交割月份的第13个交易日，交割方式为实物交割。 期权方面，丙烯期权首日上市交易的合约为标的月份2601和2602的丙烯期权系列合约。其合约设计框架 与郑商所已上市期权合约基本一致。 期货日报记者在采访中了解到，近年来，受国内外复杂多变的市场环境影响，丙烯行业发展面临需求不 足、价格波动大等突出矛盾。在此背景下，丙烯期货和期权的上市，为产业链上下游企业提供 ...

践行"五篇大文章"，赋能乡村振兴。敦化市政府、市农业农村局、畜牧业管理局对该项目高度重视并积 极推动落实。此前，申银万国期货联合太平洋财险吉林省分公司与当地政府、大豆种植合作社进行了深 入座谈，并获得积极认可。该模式被认为充分发挥了期货市场与保险产品的风险保障功能，有效衔接了 交易所惠农政策，是金融支持乡村振兴的创新实践。市政府表示将持续优化政策配套，强化部门协同， 确保项目持续精准落地，为农户稳产增收和产业高质量发展提供支持。 为了尽可能减少自然风险和市场风险带来的市场波动，提高农业生产者的积极性和消费者的稳定预期， 国家出台了一系列支持政策，其中重要的政策就是加大对"三农"的支持力度。 未来，申银万国期货将持续深化"保险+期货"模式创新，充分发挥期货市场在价格发现、风险管理等方 面的独特优势，积极对接各方资源，拓展服务领域，提升服务质量，多措并举做好"五篇大文章"，不断 探索金融服务乡村振兴的新模式、新路径，以实际行动书写金融服务实体经济的新篇章。 申银万国期货积极响应国家号召，以"保险+期货"模式为基础，不断丰富其内涵和外延，共同打造种植 收入新样本。近日，在大商所的支持下，由申银万国期货牵头，联合太平 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that after the US-China phase one trade agreement in May, the price of Zheng cotton has experienced three rounds of increases, returning to levels seen before the Qingming Festival, but the market outlook remains divided with both upward and downward pressures [1][3] - The USDA's June supply and demand report has lowered the global cotton production, consumption, beginning and ending stocks, and global trade volume for the 2024/2025 season, which has a neutral to slightly bullish impact [1] - For the 2025/2026 season, the USDA has also reduced the cotton production, beginning, and ending stocks in the US, maintaining a neutral to slightly bullish outlook [1] Group 2 - The USDA's June report estimates China's cotton production at 6.5 million tons, which may be underestimated, while the domestic market shows weak performance with a decline in the fabric sector's operating rate [2] - The export market for cotton textiles has performed better than expected, with May exports showing a 2% month-on-month increase and a 10% year-on-year increase, characterized by a "price for volume" strategy [2] - The average export price of cotton textiles to the US has continued to decline by 1.41%, indicating a trend of downgrading high-end products to gain market share [2] Group 3 - From April to June, there has been a significant reduction in port cotton imports, aligning with positive export data, while US retail inventories remain stable [3] - Investors are optimistic about Zheng cotton due to undervaluation recovery, but further price increases may require macroeconomic support, while downward adjustments may depend on negative feedback from downstream markets [3] - The overall cotton price breakthrough relies on macroeconomic factors, and strategies such as internal and external spreads and the 2509 and 2511 reverse spread should be monitored [3]

Economic Overview - The overall economic activity in the US shows slight improvement, with structural differentiation in employment data [1] - The US non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, reducing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in July [1] - Despite a cooling in US consumption and inflation, the second quarter economic outlook remains optimistic, with moderate growth expected for the year [2] Employment and Labor Market - The US non-farm employment population has exceeded expectations for four consecutive months, indicating resilience in the labor market [2] - The unemployment rate has decreased due to immigration policy impacts, and there are no significant layoffs reported despite tight job supply [2] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has not provided positive indications for a rate cut in July, leading to increased market divergence [2] - Market expectations for a potential Fed rate cut are now focused on September, but trade tensions could influence inflation and affect these expectations [2] Gold Market Dynamics - As of June, China's central bank's gold reserves increased to 2,298.55 tons, marking the eighth consecutive month of accumulation, which supports gold prices [3] - The demand for gold from global central banks has decreased overall, but China's continued purchases provide a stabilizing effect on prices [3] - The international gold price is facing resistance around $3,450 per ounce, with short-term fluctuations expected between $3,300 and $3,400 per ounce [3]

Group 1 - The asphalt market has maintained a lukewarm trend for two consecutive months, with the upcoming demand peak raising concerns about price direction and space logic [1] - The main divergence in the asphalt market is between the downward pressure on the cost side and the seasonal inventory reduction logic [1] - OPEC+ is accelerating its production increase, which is expected to exert long-term pressure on oil prices, despite short-term support from downstream demand [1][2] Group 2 - The asphalt market has initiated a destocking process, with social inventory decreasing due to construction activities in northern regions [2] - The current low factory inventory rate of around 16% continues to provide solid support for asphalt prices [2] - Although refinery profits have slightly recovered, asphalt output remains limited due to the diversion of raw materials for gasoline and diesel [2] Group 3 - The current crack spread ratio of asphalt relative to Brent crude oil is high but not at extreme levels, indicating a favorable valuation structure [3] - Despite a weak supply-demand balance in the short term, the seasonal effect is expected to support the fundamental valuation of asphalt [3] - The asphalt market's trend is still dependent on the oil market, and a cautious approach is recommended due to the lack of strong upward momentum in crude oil prices [3]

图为跨季后资金面持续转松（%） 从基本面看，"预期有所弱化+内需弹性待强化+流动性预期乐观"构成利率中长期下行的底层逻辑。6月官方制造业PMI小 幅回暖，延续向上修复格局，但主要受石油行业的带动，且仍处于收缩区间，需求前景仍不明朗。当前经济呈现"政策拉 动+内需弹性不足"的结构性特征，关税争端有所缓和但其对基本面的影响已经显现，对就业和收入有一定传导作用。因 此，在经济企稳趋势仍存在不确定性背景下，流动性预期维持乐观。 近期债市震荡趋势不变，但受跨季前后资金面变化，以及市场风险偏好持续回升的影响，债市波动有所加剧。最新公布 的经济数据显示，国内宏观经济总量平稳但内生动能弹性不足，内需偏弱令债牛延续，但在政策支撑下，国债收益率下 行至前期低点附近后进一步下行动力受限。近期政策支持和风险偏好改善共振，股市走强对债市形成一定压力。央行表 示要"灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏"，主动性增强，且当前经济总量数据整体平稳，7月货币政策加码的必要性不足， 短期债市缺乏向上的动力。10年期国债收益率接近1.6%关口后，债市陷入窄幅震荡格局。 6月PMI数据存在一些积极信号。第一，供需两端均有所修复，且供需结构略有好转，"抢出口 ...