近日，瑞银最新发布研究报告(下称报告)引发化工行业广泛关注。 报告明确上调中国化工行业预期，认为在多重积极因素共振的情况下，中国化工行业将在2026—2028年 开启新一轮上行周期，行业盈利修复与估值回升值得期待。 业内普遍认为，化工板块估值修复，将呈现轮动、扩散式特征，而非全品种普涨。 赵曦明解释称，因为政策导向、定价逻辑和供需平衡存在差异，各细分板块估值修复节奏不同，大概率 遵循"领先修复—需求接力—全面共振"的路径，应优先聚焦供应端优化和出口需求增长的板块与产品。 他表示，估值先行修复的品种主要有以下特征：具备成本优势、供应受限且出口增加、全球产能出清后 供需紧平衡、与新质生产力紧密相关。 摩根士丹利的最新报告认为，中国化工行业将迎来"长尾复苏"，而非"V"形反弹，近期化工股上涨更多 是"流动性驱动"，而非基本面根本性改善，"需求缺失"与"产能持续增加"仍是核心矛盾。 采访中，期货日报记者了解到，开年以来，宏观资金布局、行业数据表现均在一定程度上印证了化工行 业的周期拐点已逐步显现，但也存在潜在风险。 国投期货化工首席分析师庞春艳表示，当前宏观资金普遍看好中国化工行业，核心逻辑有三点：海外炼 化产能及化 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures is enhancing its overseas business strategy by fully utilizing the net proceeds from its H-share global offering to increase capital in its overseas subsidiary, Honghua International Financial Co., Ltd, indicating a significant step towards internationalization in the futures industry [1][3]. Group 1: Capital Increase and Financial Performance - Nanhua Futures announced a capital increase of HKD 12.03 billion (approximately RMB 10.72 billion) for Honghua International, raising its registered capital from HKD 8.26 billion to HKD 20.29 billion [1][3]. - Honghua International reported a revenue of RMB 506 million and a net profit of RMB 328 million for the first three quarters of 2025, showcasing its strong profitability [3]. Group 2: Internationalization Strategy - The company aims to strengthen the capital base of its overseas subsidiaries in the UK, US, and Singapore to expand its international business and enhance competitiveness in the global market [3]. - Nanhua Futures has established a service bridge connecting domestic and international markets, providing cross-market and multi-variety financial services, which has begun to show its international competitive advantage [5]. Group 3: Industry Context and Trends - The internationalization of Nanhua Futures is seen as a new path for the futures industry, addressing long-standing challenges such as limited capital and unclear expansion strategies [6][8]. - The industry is expected to evolve towards a model where larger companies adopt comprehensive international strategies while smaller firms focus on solidifying domestic operations before expanding internationally [9].

Core Points - The article highlights that China is hosting the APEC summit for the third time, marking a significant return after 12 years [1] - The theme for this year's APEC meeting is "Building a Community in the Asia-Pacific for Common Prosperity," emphasizing open development and shared opportunities [1] - Key priorities for the agenda include "openness, innovation, and cooperation," aiming to enhance economic growth and welfare in the region [1] Group 1 - Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister, emphasized the importance of APEC in promoting economic growth and welfare [1] - The Chinese government aims to expand the path for the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area and develop an upgraded blueprint for connectivity [1] - The meeting coincides with the start of China's 14th Five-Year Plan, presenting new opportunities for development in the Asia-Pacific and globally [1] Group 2 - The first senior officials' meeting of APEC and related discussions took place in Guangzhou from February 1 to 10, focusing on the theme of "China Year" and the three priority areas [2] - The discussions are intended to lay the groundwork for the informal leaders' meeting scheduled for November [2]

期货日报网讯（记者 肖佳煊）2月10日，工业和信息化部等五部门办公厅（秘书局、综合局、综合司） 发布《关于加强信息通信业能力建设 支撑低空基础设施发展的实施意见》（简称《实施意见》）。 《实施意见》要求，持续提升信息通信业技术基础能力、产业供给能力、网络支撑能力和安全保障能 力，有序推进低空场景通信网络建设，丰富拓展感知技术手段，辅助提升导航定位精度，支撑建设低空 智能网联系统，为低空经济发展提供坚实基础。 同时，坚持需求牵引、重点突出，以有条件、有需求的低空飞行活动区域为重点，因地制宜推动信息类 基础设施建设与低空应用协同发展。坚持集约复用、多元协同，在充分利用现有公众移动通信设施等基 础上，综合采用地面移动通信、卫星通信与其他通导监技术等多元化技术手段，支撑低空应用发展。坚 持试验先行、稳步推进，围绕关键技术、网络部署、应用适配等加强试验验证，探索形成可复制的解决 方案和经验做法。坚持安全可控、筑牢屏障，将网络、数据和飞行安全保障贯穿于信息类基础设施规 划、建设和运行全过程各环节。到2027年，全国低空公共航路地面移动通信网络覆盖率不低于90%，多 元融合感知方案进一步完善成熟，低空导航服务水平持续提升， ...

为进一步提升期货公司交易结算系统压力测试工作的有效性，保障系统安全平稳运行，在中国证监会指 导下，协会研究起草了《期货公司交易结算系统压力测试管理细则（试行）（征求意见稿）》。现面向 社会公开征求意见。公众可以通过以下途径和方式提出反馈意见： 1.电子邮箱：tech@cfachina.org 2.通讯地址：北京市西城区金融大街33号通泰大厦C座8层中国期货业协会信息科技部，邮编100032 意见反馈截止时间为：2026年3月10日 中国期货业协会 2026年2月10日 附件1.《期货公司交易结算系统压力测试管理细则（试行）（征求意见稿）》.pdf 附件2.《期货公司交易结算系统压力测试管理细则（试行）》（征求意见稿）起草说明.pdf 附件3：反馈意见表.xls ...

Group 1 - The bond market sentiment has improved due to the central bank's support and a weak performance of risk assets, with a net purchase of 100 billion yuan in government bonds in January, slightly exceeding market expectations [1] - The central bank's actions, including structural interest rate cuts and significant long-term liquidity injections, have stabilized market expectations, with a total of 1.1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity provided in January, equivalent to a 0.5 basis point reserve requirement cut [1] - The 10-year government bond yield has dipped to around 1.8%, indicating a warm sentiment in the bond market [1] Group 2 - The supply-demand gap is widening, with ongoing structural differentiation and weak internal momentum, while prices are stabilizing, supporting nominal growth recovery in the first half of the year [2] - Attention is needed on the impact of global policy synchronization on manufacturing cycles and exports, as well as the effects of ongoing declines in the real estate sector on household balance sheets [2] - Seasonal performance indicates that years with a later Spring Festival typically see stronger macro data in January and February, with potential impacts on production and investment data in the first quarter [2] Group 3 - The upcoming National People's Congress is expected to release policy signals, with local GDP growth targets for 2026 being adjusted downward, indicating a potential reduction in national economic growth targets [3] - The expectation of a downward adjustment in incremental policy strength may have a positive impact on the bond market, although medium to long-term macro policies remain supportive [3] - The bond market is likely to see increased volatility post-holiday, with institutional investors favoring "holding bonds over the holiday," which may lead to a relatively stable bond market performance [3] Group 4 - Weak domestic demand and loose liquidity are the main supports for the bond market, with improved supply-demand dynamics for local government bonds driving the current bond market recovery [5] - The expectation of stable liquidity and the historical calendar effect of the Spring Festival suggest that institutional willingness to "hold bonds over the holiday" will increase, potentially leading to slight price increases in the bond market [5] - Post-holiday, the bond market may experience differentiation and increased volatility, influenced by macroeconomic conditions, risk asset rebounds, and policy signals [5]

2月6日，农业农村部强化生猪产能综合调控政策，明确提出强化生猪产能综合调控，对头部生猪养殖企 业实行年度生产备案管理，有序调控全国能繁母猪存栏量，促进市场供需更加适配。短期来看，政策通 过抑制产能无序扩张缓解价格下行压力，加速低效产能出清；长期来看，政策推动行业向规模化、高质 量发展转型，头部优质企业将主导市场，行业中枢利润和景气度有望提升。未来需关注政策执行力度及 产能去化进度，这将决定猪价回暖的节奏和幅度。 当前生猪养殖已陷入深度亏损，行业面临严峻压力。截至2月初，毛猪出栏均价12.5元/公斤，猪粮比 5.26：1处于二级预警区间，头均养殖亏损130元，其中自繁自养模式在经历了1月份的短暂盈利后再度 转为亏损。这种亏损源于成本与价格的严重倒挂。尽管饲料原料价格小幅下跌，但猪价跌幅更深，导致 行业资金链持续承压。与此同时，需求端表现持续疲软。虽然春节前备货促使屠宰企业开工率小幅回升 至40%左右，但白条肉跟涨乏力，终端市场接受度一般，鲜销率提升而冻品库存消化缓慢，表明下游实 际消费提振有限。节后消费将快速回落，进入传统淡季，对猪价的支撑作用显著减弱。此外，替代品禽 肉价格同样低迷，未能对猪肉消费形成有效拉动 ...

甲醇进口下降，港口库存进入下降周期。甲醇开工率提升空间受限，下游需求尚可，甲醇阶段性的供需 紧平衡仍将延续。因此，甲醇底部存在支撑。 港口库存下降 每年冬季，伊朗为了保障居民供暖，严格限制工业用气。这使得伊朗甲醇行业开工率下降至10%～20% 的极低水平，我国甲醇进口也季节性下降。 近期，伊朗局势动荡进一步影响其甲醇生产、运输和出口，我国甲醇进口存在较强的下降预期。国内港 口甲醇卸货量下降，去库进程加快。截至2月5日，国内甲醇港口库存为96.14万吨，较9月18日132.98万 吨的历史高位下降了36.94万吨，下降幅度为27.7%。其中，华东地区甲醇港口库存为56.36万吨，较9月 18日下降28.82万吨，下降幅度为33.83%；华南地区甲醇港口库存为39.78万吨，较9月18日下降8.02万 吨，下降幅度为16.78%。 开工率提升有限 受进口下降的影响， 国内甲醇周度供应下降至222万吨左右，出现了一定缺口。在这种情况下，短期国 内甲醇企业提升开工率，增加供应，填补供应缺口。截至2月5日，国内甲醇开工率为87.98%，较去年 同期上升6.21个百分点。 然而需要注意的是，虽然供应存在缺口，但是甲醇企业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate price has experienced a significant decline of 34% since late January, nearly reversing its gains for the year, primarily due to the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which led to a strong rise in the US dollar index and a sharp drop in global risk appetite [1] Supply Side Summary - Lithium ore supply and demand are robust, with prices for Australian spodumene and domestic lithium mica rising by 26% this year. However, lithium salt plants are currently undergoing maintenance, and production in the Yichun area has decreased due to certification changes [2] - In January, China's lithium carbonate production fell by 1% month-on-month to 97,900 tons, with February production expected to drop to 81,900 tons, indicating a downward trend in domestic production [2] - Chile's lithium salt exports in January reached 39,300 tons LCE, a 76% increase month-on-month and a 38.7% year-on-year rise, primarily due to early shipments ahead of the Chinese New Year [2] Demand Side Summary - As the Chinese New Year approaches, production at cathode manufacturers has slowed, but demand from power battery companies has rebounded due to "export rush" strategies. Weekly production of ternary materials has decreased by 11% from last year's peak, while lithium iron phosphate production has dropped by 8.6% [3] - Power battery production, which had been declining for eight consecutive weeks, saw a slight increase of 0.3 GWh last week, reaching 26.7 GWh, driven by manufacturers stocking up ahead of a reduction in export tax rates for lithium batteries [3] - The domestic energy storage market showed strong performance in January, with a 13.7% increase in energy scale to 13.9 GWh, indicating sustained high demand in the energy storage sector [4] Inventory Perspective - As of February 5, domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate was 105,463 tons, with a weekly reduction of 2,019 tons. The inventory structure shows that 41% is concentrated in downstream sectors, indicating strong actual demand [5] - The overall supply pressure for lithium carbonate is gradually easing, with expectations for demand recovery post-holiday, which may lead to further declines in inventory levels [5] - The lithium carbonate market is entering a new phase dominated by supply and demand fundamentals, with short-term price support solidifying as production decreases and import windows close, reducing future overseas supply [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the bond market is stabilizing, driven by monetary policy adjustments and market conditions, while the real estate sector continues to face challenges [1][4][5] Group 2 - In early 2025, fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, primarily due to declines in real estate development and infrastructure investment, with manufacturing investment showing a slight increase of 0.6% [2] - Real estate development investment fell by 17.2% year-on-year, and the sales of commercial housing dropped by 12.6%, indicating ongoing instability in the real estate market [2] - The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, marking a 34-month high, while the producer price index (PPI) decreased by 1.9%, suggesting gradual improvement in domestic demand [2] Group 3 - As of the end of January, the bond market's outstanding scale exceeded 197.71 trillion yuan, with net financing in January amounting to 14,189 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year decline [4] - The central bank indicated that there is still room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in 2026, aiming for a moderately loose monetary policy [4][5] - The central bank's net bond purchases in January amounted to 1,000 billion yuan, contributing to a generally loose market liquidity ahead of the Spring Festival [4][5] Group 4 - Looking ahead, the bond market is expected to stabilize before the holiday, with potential fluctuations and increased volatility in the long-end bond market after the holiday [6]