Core Viewpoint - The launch of pure benzene futures and options on July 8 marks a significant development in risk management tools for China's aromatic industry, providing a means to stabilize profits and production operations [1] Group 1: Market Development - The first pure benzene over-the-counter options transaction was successfully executed by Zhejiang Zhiqi Industrial Co., Ltd. in collaboration with a Shandong chemical enterprise, which has a sales network covering multiple provinces [1] - The introduction of pure benzene futures and options fills a gap in the raw material risk management tools within the aromatic industry chain, complementing existing styrene futures and options [1] Group 2: Risk Management Strategy - Zhejiang Zhiqi Industrial identified the devaluation risk of pure benzene spot inventory for the collaborating enterprise and designed a strategy involving selling a virtual call option on the pure benzene 2603 contract to mitigate costs and lock in profits [2] - The strategy allows the enterprise to benefit from price increases while also providing a safety net if prices do not exceed the execution price, thus addressing both inventory cost optimization and profit locking needs [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The launch of new futures products is seen as an opportunity for the entire industry chain to access new risk management tools, with Zhejiang Zhiqi Industrial committed to leveraging its expertise in derivatives to empower the real economy [2]

东南亚处在割胶旺季 根据季节性规律，当前，我国云南和海南产区处在割胶旺季，东南亚各产胶国产量也处于稳步回升的阶 段。据天然橡胶生产国协会（ANRPC）最新发布的报告，2025年5月天胶生产国协会成员国合计产胶量 达79.13万吨，环比大幅增加24.97万吨；1—5月天胶生产国协会成员国合计产胶量达369.98万吨，同比 小幅增加2.46万吨，增幅达0.67%。未来7—12月，在没有极端天气干扰的情况下，国内胶水产量环比增 长趋势无法动摇。换言之，未来胶市供应压力将继续增大。 轮胎行业开工率回落 随着夏季高温天气到来，终端车市需求转入淡季，轮胎产销季节性转弱，我国轮胎行业开工率阶段性回 落。截至2025年7月4日当周，国内半钢胎样本企业产能利用率为64.13%，周度大幅下降6.27个百分点， 同比大幅回落15.27个百分点；全钢胎样本企业产能利用率为61.53%，周度略微下滑0.17个百分点，同 比略微走低0.67个百分点。在出口和内销形势趋于严峻的背景下，国内轮胎产量增速放缓。受下游轮胎 需求减弱拖累，青岛保税区橡胶库存维持累积趋势。 随着中东地缘风险降温，国内橡胶板块商品属性再度占据主导地位。目前处在割胶旺 ...

6月10日—17日，中泰期货前往西部部分苹果产区调研套袋情况。调研地点包括：陕西省渭南市白水县， 延安市洛川县、富县、宜川县、黄陵县，咸阳市彬州市、旬邑县、长武县、礼泉县；甘肃省庆阳市，平凉 市庄浪县、静宁县、泾川县。 [调研方式] 本次调研区域集中于陕西、甘肃等苹果种植区，重点了解苹果所处物候期（膨大期），以及苹果套袋情 况。其中，陕西省长武县、黄陵县、礼泉县以及甘肃省泾川县的取样量较小，不做数据统计。 在每个调研地点，我们选取了一定数量的样本点，对果园的套袋情况进行了分类描述，包括正常及偏多、 偏差、极差、近绝产等状态。其中，偏多代表套袋情况较好，增产10%以上；正常代表套袋情况与正常年 份基本持平，产量在±10%范围内；偏差代表套袋较少，减产幅度在10%～30%；极差代表套袋情况很差， 减产幅度在30%～50%；近绝产代表套袋情况非常差，减产幅度大于50%。 [调研内容] 陕西省渭南市白水县 调研期间，白水县苹果处于幼果膨大期。调研区域为杜康镇、可仙镇、尧禾镇、雷牙镇、史官镇。整体来 看，嘎啦等早熟品种套袋情况偏好，富士苹果套袋情况在不同乡镇有所不同。林皋镇、可仙镇、尧禾镇、 雷牙镇套袋情况好，较坐果期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent extension of the "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration has created a negative sentiment in the non-ferrous metals market, with concerns about trade negotiations and their potential impact on global economic growth and commodity demand [2][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The overall sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector is declining, influenced by macroeconomic factors and the recent tariff threats from the Trump administration [2][4]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for June exceeded expectations, indicating a strong labor market, which has led to a rebound in the U.S. dollar index and suppressed risk asset prices [3]. - The market is currently entering a demand off-season, with a noticeable decline in demand for photovoltaic components and household appliances, leading to an accumulation of social inventory for various non-ferrous metals [3][5]. Group 2: Tariff Policy and Trade Negotiations - Trump's tariff threats are affecting non-ferrous metal prices through increased market pessimism and heightened risk aversion [4]. - The ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and its trade partners are critical, as failure to reach agreements could significantly impact exports from related countries and regions [2][4]. - Analysts suggest that the market should closely monitor the economic recovery of major economies, particularly the U.S. and China, as this will influence demand for non-ferrous metals [4][5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to decline as they enter the off-season, with social inventory gradually increasing [3]. - Different non-ferrous metals exhibit varying fundamentals; for instance, zinc prices are pressured by rising processing fees and recovering production, while copper production is declining due to lower processing fees and disruptions in overseas smelting [5]. - The second half of the year may see structural changes in domestic consumption, with potential support from infrastructure investments, despite a slowdown in certain sectors like real estate and household appliances [5].

Group 1 - President Trump announced new tariffs on imports from 14 countries, effective August 1, with rates ranging from 25% to 40% depending on the country [3] - The countries affected include Japan, South Korea, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Tunisia (25%), Bosnia and Herzegovina, South Africa (30%), Indonesia (32%), Bangladesh, Serbia (35%), Cambodia, Thailand (36%), Laos, Myanmar (40%) [3] - Trump emphasized that the tariffs are aimed at addressing the trade deficit and warned of potential retaliatory tariffs from Japan and South Korea [3] Group 2 - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" has been postponed to August 1, extending the previous deadline of July 9 [5] - Negotiations with multiple trade partners have progressed slower than expected, with only agreements reached with the UK and Vietnam, while talks with the EU, Japan, South Korea, and India remain challenging [7] - South Africa is pursuing a more balanced trade relationship with the U.S., while the EU is prepared to reach a principle agreement but will take countermeasures if negotiations fail [7] Group 3 - A White House official clarified that tariffs on specific countries will not be stacked on top of industry tariffs, preventing cumulative tariffs on the same imported products [10] - The global trade monitoring organization noted that Trump's previous executive order established rules against tariff stacking, prioritizing certain tariff mechanisms over others [10]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI - In June, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%, up from 49.5% in the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [1] - The production index increased by 0.3 percentage points to 51%, while the new orders index rose by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2%, suggesting improving demand [1] - The current PMI is primarily affected by the backlog of finished goods inventory, but as inventory is gradually digested, new order growth momentum is expected to be released further [1] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI - The non-manufacturing PMI for June was 50.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value [1] - The construction PMI rose by 1.8 percentage points to 52.8%, likely linked to the acceleration of "two heavy" projects and stronger policies to stabilize the real estate market [1] - The service sector PMI slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points to 50.1%, possibly due to reduced offline travel activity after holiday effects [1] Group 3: Government Debt Supply and Funding - In the first half of the year, the fiscal supply was robust, with 6.66 trillion yuan of government bonds issued, representing 51% of the annual quota [3] - Local government special bond issuance accelerated in June, with 4.4 trillion yuan of new quotas, and 48% already issued [3] - The overall issuance volume is expected to remain stable in the second half, with a projected issuance of 5.8 trillion yuan, keeping liquidity pressure manageable [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The third quarter is expected to see a peak in local government special bond issuance, which may enhance funding for local-led projects [4] - The central bank's monetary policy tools are anticipated to support financing for "two heavy" and "two new" projects, potentially increasing infrastructure investment [4] - The economic recovery remains weak, with external demand showing marginal improvement, but internal economic momentum still requires strengthening [5]

Core Viewpoint - The PVC industry is experiencing significant losses due to declining demand from the real estate sector and ongoing price drops, leading to a weak supply-demand balance and continued pressure on prices [1][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - PVC prices have dropped by 60% from their peak in October 2021, with no clear signs of recovery as of July 6, 2025 [1]. - The average loss for domestic acetylene-based PVC producers is 520 yuan per ton, indicating high levels of financial strain [2]. Group 2: Supply and Production - The operating load rate of domestic PVC production enterprises is at 78.09%, a slight decrease of 1.64 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Despite stable weekly production levels around 460,000 tons, the profitability of caustic soda has declined, leading to expectations of reduced PVC production loads in the future [2][4]. - Domestic PVC social inventory stands at 575,200 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.03% but a year-on-year decrease of 38.06% [2]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - The real estate sector continues to show weak performance, with declines in investment, sales area, new construction, and completion rates, negatively impacting overall PVC demand [3]. - Downstream enterprises are experiencing low order volumes, with the operating rate for PVC pipe sample enterprises estimated at 38.56%, down 1.57 percentage points from the previous week [3]. - PVC exports have increased significantly, with a total export volume of 1,965,900 tons from January to May 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 52.26% [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The PVC market is characterized by weak supply and demand, coupled with high loss pressures, suggesting that short-term price movements will likely remain weak and volatile [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent de-escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict has led to a significant decline in oil prices, with SC crude oil futures dropping nearly 15% from their June highs, as geopolitical risk premiums have been rapidly eliminated [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The primary reason for the decline in oil prices is attributed to global trade tensions and increased production by OPEC+, resulting in a more relaxed supply-demand balance, with seasonal demand already priced in [1][2]. - OPEC+ decided to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, driven by low global oil inventories, which have remained relatively low since 2020 [1][2]. - The ongoing restructuring of global trade routes and regional disparities in oil inventories have contributed to lower stock levels in key delivery hubs [1][2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that as geopolitical tensions ease, the market will refocus on fundamental factors, with OPEC+ members like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Kazakhstan accelerating production [3][4]. - In the absence of significant demand growth, the increased supply from OPEC+ is expected to exert downward pressure on oil prices, with potential for Brent and WTI crude futures to break above $80 per barrel, while SC crude may exceed 580 yuan per barrel [3][4]. - The market is likely to experience substantial inventory accumulation in the third and fourth quarters, with a prevailing narrative of "weak demand + oversupply" shaping oil pricing for the latter half of the year [4].

Group 1 - The oilseed and oil market has shown a strong upward trend recently, driven by favorable expectations regarding U.S. biodiesel policies and a general rise in commodity prices [1][2] - The U.S. Senate's proposed tax bill aims to prohibit the use of non-North American materials for biodiesel production, which could significantly benefit U.S. soybean and corn farmers if passed [1][2] - Analysts indicate that the current international oilseed supply remains ample, with Brazil and Argentina experiencing high soybean yields, while U.S. soybean planting area is expected to decrease [2][3] Group 2 - The palm oil market is under pressure due to high production levels and cautious purchasing from India and China, which limits price increases [3] - Domestic soybean oil inventories are rising, and the market is experiencing seasonal supply pressures, leading to a weak basis for oilseed prices [3][4] - Analysts suggest that while the oil market is currently influenced by policy changes, the overall trend remains unclear, with potential for short-term fluctuations [4][5] Group 3 - The outlook for soybean meal prices is more optimistic compared to canola meal, with expectations of price increases driven by U.S. soybean market dynamics and weather factors [4] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are seen as a "gray rhino," with diminishing impacts on prices, although positive negotiations could support U.S. soybean prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Gold Industry (2025-2027)" outlines a roadmap for the gold industry, emphasizing resource enhancement, technological innovation, and international cooperation to address the challenges of resource scarcity and high dependency on imports [1][4]. Group 1: Resource Development and Production - The plan prioritizes "promoting domestic resource increase and production," aiming for a 5%-10% growth in gold resources and over 5% in gold and silver production by 2027, with a focus on exploration in western regions [1][4]. - China's gold resource endowment is limited, with only about 5.85% of the global gold reserves, necessitating a long-term strategy for resource enhancement [1]. Group 2: Technological Innovation - The plan emphasizes "strengthening key technology and equipment breakthroughs," targeting challenges in deep mining, efficient smelting, and green mining, with a focus on specific technological directions [2]. - The promotion of high-purity gold and silver alloy materials is a new highlight, indicating a future integration of gold material development with emerging industrial applications [2]. Group 3: Industry Integration and Safety - The plan encourages "guiding enterprises to strengthen, optimize, and expand," addressing the fragmentation in the gold industry and promoting the formation of globally competitive leading enterprises [3]. - It continues to stress the importance of "enhancing safety production levels" and "accelerating digital transformation," with specific applications in areas like rock microseismic monitoring and unmanned underground operations [3]. Group 4: International Cooperation - The plan calls for "deepening overseas investment cooperation," highlighting the importance of securing global supply chains amid a significant supply-demand gap in gold [4]. - It emphasizes the need for enterprises to engage in global supply chain systems and fulfill social responsibilities, aligning with the Belt and Road Initiative [4]. Group 5: Strategic Opportunities - The next three years present a window for industry integration and upgrading, urging leading gold enterprises to focus on key technology, green resource utilization, high-end product development, and international collaboration to enhance competitiveness [5].