Core Viewpoint - The bond futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend supported by liquidity easing, with expectations for continued strength leading up to the Chinese New Year holiday [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Bond futures across various maturities have shown gains, reflecting a recovery in market sentiment as institutional buying increases [1]. - The 10-year bond yield reached 1.8%, while the 7-year yield fell to a new low, indicating a bullish trend in the bond market [1]. - The market sentiment remains optimistic, with expectations of further upward movement in bond prices as the Chinese New Year approaches [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the first quarter may present a favorable window for bond market positioning, with potential for stronger rebounds in certain bond categories [2]. - Post-holiday, the market will need to monitor macroeconomic changes and risk asset performance, which could influence bond market dynamics [2][4]. - Key factors to watch include global liquidity trends, local government meetings, and upcoming economic data releases that may impact market sentiment [4]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Traders are advised to consider strategies such as long positions in specific bond contracts and to be cautious about chasing high prices due to prevailing market emotions [2][3]. - The current high net basis in the bond market suggests that traders should focus on specific contracts for potential gains as the market stabilizes [3]. - As the main contracts transition to the 2606 series, traders must decide on their positions to avoid potential costs associated with delivery or forced liquidation [3].

沪铝期货价格在2月初大幅下挫、释放下跌动能后，近日主力合约价格围绕23500元/吨一线弱势震荡。 多空双方在宏观情绪扰动与基本面季节性淡季的双重影响下持续拉锯，市场处于长期向好预期与短期承 压现实之间的博弈阶段。 全球经济预期上修与国内政策主动作为 当前全球与中国经济呈现外修内稳的态势。全球方面，国际货币基金组织于1月上调2026年全球经济增 长预期至3.3%，其中美国经济预期调至2.4%，主要驱动力来自人工智能投资及贸易局势缓和。在此背 景下，主要央行政策进入观望期：美联储暂停降息，将利率维持在3.50%~3.75%；欧洲央行虽维持利率 不变，但经济复苏动力仍显不足。反观国内，宏观政策正积极靠前发力以稳固内需，财政支出力度只增 不减，货币政策则保留降准降息空间并强调精准支持实体经济。当前经济运行在实现增长目标的同时， 也呈现出供给强于需求、外需强于内需的阶段性特征。这一系列政策的核心在于激发内生活力，推动经 济结构向更均衡、可持续的方向发展。 国内电解铝供给温和扩张 国内电解铝市场正面临供需结构变化带来的显著库存压力。据SMM统计，1月国内电解铝产量为379.86 万吨，同比增长2.7%，环比增长0.5%， ...

数据显示，国内氧化铝总库存持续攀升，已达到562万吨；电解铝厂氧化铝库存累积至383.8万吨，原料 储备充足。 去年12月以来，氧化铝期价维持震荡整理走势，最低探底2600元/吨附近，最高反弹至3000元/吨左右承 压。 整体来看，氧化铝作为中间品，受有色金属价格剧烈波动的影响较小，其更多受自身供需格局主导。铝 土矿资源充足，价格维持弱势，使氧化铝的成本下移。氧化铝建成产能持稳，近期有小规模检修减产， 运行产能较前期高位略有下滑，不过依然维持在偏高水平。氧化铝总库存持续抬升，上期所所库存也重 返增势，现货价格弱势不改。短期而言，氧化铝价格或继续低位徘徊。 数据显示，国内氧化铝总库存持续攀升，已达到562万吨；电解铝厂氧化铝库存累积至383.8万吨，原料 储备充足。在途及站台堆积库存明显增长，氧化铝厂因担心节后价格继续下跌及下游铝厂主动去库造成 销售压力，节前加快出货。1月以来，上期所氧化铝库存重返累积态势，上周总库存增加4.36万吨，至 30.88万吨；仓单量增加4.69万吨，至21.8万吨。 氧化铝现货价格弱势难改。2月初，氧化铝现货汇总价格暂稳于2646元/吨，较期货当月合约小幅升水。 从现货成交情况看， ...

展望未来，贵港市生猪"保险+期货"模式仍有较大的升级空间。一方面，南华期货将继续积累价格上行 风险管理、生猪全周期服务等领域的经验，进一步优化产品设计和运作流程，探索"保险+期货+N"的多 元化融合模式；另一方面，将进一步扩大项目覆盖范围，助力贵港生猪产业向规模化、标准化、高质量 方向发展。 从政策引领到市场实践，从风险保障到产业赋能，广西贵港生猪"保险+期货"模式的探索之路，彰显了 金融服务实体经济的初心使命。这一模式的不断完善和推广，必将为贵港市乡村振兴注入更加强劲的动 力，为广西乃至全国生猪产业的稳健发展提供可复制、可推广的"贵港经验"。 相较于传统帮扶模式，贵港市"保险+期货"项目在实践中不断探索，南华期货针对当地生猪产业的实际 需求，精准施策，对症下药。项目坚持以中小养殖户为重点服务对象，鼓励以合作组织形式参与投保， 明确了单个项目不允许以单一企业形式投保的原则，使金融资源向一线养殖群体倾斜。针对中小农户养 殖规模小、抗风险能力弱的特点，项目积极争取了补贴资金，大大降低了农户投保成本压力，使中小农 户能够"买得起、用得上"，彰显了金融支农的普惠初心。 该模式在贵港市的持续推进和创新发展，不仅有效化解 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market sentiment has improved due to weak performance in risk assets and central bank support for liquidity, leading to a stronger overall performance in government bond futures [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - There is an increase in the willingness of institutions to "hold bonds over the holiday" due to a backdrop of easing risk aversion, calendar effects, and stable liquidity [1] - The bond market is expected to maintain a strong trend leading up to the Spring Festival holiday [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Post-holiday, there is a high probability of divergence in bond market trends and an increase in volatility [1] - Key focus areas include changes in the macroeconomic environment and movements in risk assets [1]

今天凌晨， 白银价格大幅反弹。截至今晨收盘，纽约期银主力合约暴涨8%，伦敦银现货价格大涨4.35%。 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | | --- | --- | | 5057.540 | 83.293 | | +22.150 +0.44% | +3.474 +4.35% | | 纽约金主连 | 纽约银主连 | | 5084.2 | 83.050 | | +104.4 +2.10% | +6.155 +8.00% | | 沪金主连 | 沪银主连 | | 1127.00 | 20934 | | +11.14 +1.00% | +1042 +5.24% | 这位最高领袖说："国家力量与其说源自导弹与飞机，不如说源自民族的意志与坚守。（希望伊朗民众）再次展现 这种意志，挫败敌人。" 金银价格反弹还是反转？ 对于内外盘贵金属价格大幅反弹，广发期货贵金属研究员叶倩宁认为，主要有两方面原因：一是数据显示，中国1 月末黄金储备约2307.6吨，环比增加1.3吨，为连续15个月增持，为市场注入了信心；二是今年1月全球黄金ETF持 仓净流入190亿美元，创下单月历史新高，其资产管理规模更是达到6690亿美元，环比增长20%，创下 ...

1月底至2月初，美国、印度相继正式将焦煤列为"关键矿产资源"，引发了市场对全球炼焦煤资源价值的重估。 2月4日，一则关于"印尼将暂停煤炭出口"的消息引发市场广泛关注。上周五，印尼能源与矿产资源部证实，目 前的情况是尚未正式批准煤炭生产商2026年的工作计划与预算，而非立即停止出口。根据惯例，印尼政府通常 在每年3月底前完成上半年出口配额的审批，且年中还可能进行调整。因此，市场所担忧的"出口锐减"局面，目 前仍存在较大不确定性。 从供应端看，国内焦煤市场供应在节前维持相对高位，但受春节假期影响，已进入季节性减产阶段。随着假期 临近，煤矿陆续安排放假，减产范围正逐步扩大。截至2月6日，523家样本矿山炼焦煤开工率为86.67%，环比 回落2.46个百分点；原煤日均产量192.53万吨，环比下降万吨；精煤日均产量75.45万吨，环比减少1.62万吨。整 体来看，产地供应将持续收缩。 图为523家样本矿山精煤日均产量 进口方面，蒙古与澳大利亚的煤炭呈现结构性分化，整体供应压力仍存但结构有所调整。受盘面升水影响，蒙 煤进口量维持高位。供应持续宽松导致部分口岸库存累积。与蒙煤形成对比的是，澳大利亚优质炼焦煤资源仍 显紧俏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market in 2025 is characterized by a gradual easing of fundamentals and a deep adjustment in the supply structure, with significant differentiation in the performance of the four major mining companies [1] Group 1: Overall Market Performance - The total iron ore production of the four major mining companies in 2025 is projected to be 1.158 billion tons, an increase of 1.80% year-on-year, while total sales are expected to reach 1.133 billion tons, up 1.11% year-on-year [12] - Key events such as Australian cyclone disasters, the commissioning of the Guinea Simandou project, and negotiations over iron ore prices have significantly impacted the short-term supply adjustments and long-term capacity planning of these companies [1] Group 2: Rio Tinto Performance - In 2025, Rio Tinto's iron ore production and sales both declined, with Pilbara production at 327 million tons, down 0.21%, and sales at 326 million tons, down 0.71% [2] - The decline in production and sales was primarily due to extreme weather conditions in Western Australia during the first quarter, which led to significant disruptions [2][3] - Despite the challenges, production rebounded in subsequent quarters, with a record high of 896.7 million tons in the fourth quarter, reflecting strong operational health and favorable weather conditions [3][4] Group 3: Vale Performance - Vale's iron ore production in 2025 reached 336 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.56%, while sales were 314 million tons, up 2.51% [6] - The first quarter saw a significant drop in production due to various operational challenges, but production rebounded in the second quarter, driven by strong output from the Brucutu plant and record production from the S11D mine [7] - Vale has optimized its product mix to prioritize medium-grade products, while reducing sales of pelletized iron ore, aligning with market demand [8] Group 4: BHP Performance - BHP's iron ore production increased by 0.80% to 292 million tons in 2025, while sales slightly decreased by 0.11% to 289 million tons [9] - The company achieved record production and sales in the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, driven by improved supply chain efficiency and operational performance [9][10] - BHP is currently negotiating annual contract terms with China Mineral Resources Group, which significantly impacts its sales strategy, as China accounts for over 60% of its iron ore sales [11] Group 5: Fortescue Performance - Fortescue's iron ore production in 2025 was 203 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.41%, with sales reaching 202 million tons, up 3.81% [13] - The company attributed its strong performance to effective weather management and ongoing operational efficiency improvements [13] - Fortescue is actively exploring new iron ore resources and projects, including the Belinga iron ore project in Gabon, which is expected to have a production capacity of 30 million tons per year [15] Group 6: Future Outlook - The four major mining companies have raised their annual performance guidance for 2026, expecting continued steady growth in iron ore production and sales [16] - The supply landscape is expected to become more relaxed with the gradual release of capacities from new projects, while demand from China's steel sector is projected to decline [16][17] - The industry is undergoing significant structural adjustments, with companies diversifying their resource portfolios and optimizing product mixes to adapt to changing market dynamics [17]

本周一A股强势拉升，截至收盘，上证综指涨1.41%（重回4100点上方），深证成指涨2.17%，创业板指涨2.98%，科创50指数涨2.51%。沪深北三市合计 成交约2.27万亿元，较此前一日增加逾1000亿元。 A股市场超4600股飘红。其中，半导体板块拉升，芯原股份涨近15%，国芯科技涨近13%，复旦微电涨近10%；AI应用概念活跃，中文在线、海看股份 20%涨停，海天瑞声等涨超10%；CPO概念表现强势，市值超2000亿元的天孚通信盘中涨停，新易盛、中际旭创均走高；分散染料概念表现亮眼，闰土股 份、亚邦股份等涨停；太空光伏概念热度不减，杰普特20%涨停，协鑫集成斩获4连板。 （文章来源：期货日报） 东证期货宏观策略高级分析师王培丞同样对后市较为乐观。他认为，"春季躁动"行情还未走完。前期市场躁动更多是由拥挤交易导致，与政策预期造成的 波动明显不同。2026年是"十五五"规划开局之年，随着春节假期后全国两会召开，新政策、新理念大概率驱动"春季躁动"行情延续。此外，A股上市公司 估值的主导因素依然是国内经济基本面。目前国内流动性充裕，政策保持积极态势，A股"长牛、慢牛"的格局依然稳固，海外因素扰动持续性不强 ...

本周一A股强势拉升，截至收盘，上证综指涨1.41%（重回4100点上方），深证成指涨2.17%，创业板指涨2.98%，科创50指数涨2.51%。沪深北三市合计 成交约2.27万亿元，较此前一日增加逾1000亿元。 同日，亚太主要股指也集体走高。其中，日经225指数收盘上涨3.89%，韩国综合指数涨超4%，澳洲标普200指数涨1.85%。 在海外流动性预期复杂、市场波动较大的情况下，A股三大指数反弹的持续性以及"持币还是持股过节"的选择，成为投资者关注的焦点。 永安期货（600927）股指高级分析师华翔告诉期货日报记者，近期股市大幅波动的主要原因有三个：一是融资保证金比例上调抑制了部分概念炒作，当前 市场杠杆风险已明显降低；二是市场对美联储潜在政策转向的担忧引发大宗商品及周期股显著回调，目前相关风险资产的估值更加合理；三是美国科技巨 头的巨额资本开支计划引发盈利忧虑，打击了AI相关板块。华翔认为，在经历了这三重考验后，市场表现出较强的韧性，2月初A股三大指数回调反而 为"春季躁动"行情创造了更有利的条件。 A股市场超4600股飘红。其中，半导体板块拉升，芯原股份涨近15%，国芯科技涨近13%，复旦微电涨近10% ...