2026年2月上旬以来，贵金属市场经历了近四十年来罕见的剧烈震荡。据统计，当周伦敦黄金现货价格单日价差持续 在300美元/盎司左右，白银更在七个交易日内出现11次超5%的剧烈波动，单月波动率突破100%。市场波动率急剧攀 升，交易节奏明显转向快进快出，带动A股有色板块同步承压。 在此背景下，沃什被提名美联储主席的消息，也成为压垮市场情绪的最后一根稻草。面对极端行情与交易所紧急上调 保证金，投资者难免困惑，对此，瑞达期货特此梳理当前市场的三大核心关切，以专业视角厘清迷雾： 一问波动：是情绪尾声，还是趋势拐点？ 二问逻辑：是规则重塑，还是噪音干扰？ 三问对策：如何借专业之力，在风浪中稳健前行？ 近期贵金属、有色的剧烈波动，究竟是短期情绪宣泄，还是中长期趋势的转折点？除沃什提名外，哪些因素共同导致 市场波动？ 本次金银价格的暴跌，速度之快创了近四十年来之最，此时又适逢特朗普宣布美联储新任主席的提名，表面看是这一 提名引致了金银的暴跌。 瑞达期货深耕CTA十余年，在致力于帮助客户穿越市场迷雾的初衷下，积累了丰富的大宗商品研究、投资和风险管理 的经验。以今年1月30日和2月2日这两天为例，面对大宗商品，尤其是贵金属出现 ...

为此，国家统计局城市司负责人表示，基期轮换后，调查分类目录、调查网点和代表规格品、权数等变 动均会对价格指数产生一定影响，但这些因素的影响方向和幅度各不相同，综合起来才是对总指数的影 响。经测算，本次基期轮换对CPI和PPI各月同比指数的影响平均约为0.06和0.08个百分点，总体较小。 数据显示，1月份，居民消费需求持续恢复，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨 0.2%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.8%。工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨 0.4%，同比下降1.4%。 期货日报网讯（记者 肖佳煊）2月11日，国家统计局公布了以2025年为基期的全国居民消费价格指数 （CPI）和工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）数据，这是本次基期轮换后的首次数据发布。 ...

下一步，郭武平表示，将继续加大金融政策支持，引导金融机构高效服务扩大内需战略，优化消费重点 领域金融服务，持续提升消费金融服务质效。 三是惠民生。要求金融机构发挥服务网络和资金技术优势，协助地方政府组织促消费活动，发放消费补 贴，提供增值服务。 四是强保障。加强服务保障，金融机构在节假日期间将保障适量网点开门营业，满足人民群众金融服务 需求。加强支付保障，注重推进消费场景支付便利化，满足老年人、外籍来华人员等群体支付服务需 求。 期货日报网讯(记者肖佳煊)金融监管总局新闻发言人、政策研究司司长郭武平在2月11日国新办举行的 新闻发布会上表示，金融监管总局指导金融机构落实好促消费的各项举措，丰富金融产品，便利金融服 务，营造良好的消费环境。具体可以概括为降成本、优服务、惠民生、强保障四个方面。 一是降成本。去年以来，我们与相关部门共同实施服务业经营主体和个人消费贷款贴息政策，特别是对 个人消费贷款贴息1个百分点，力度还是很大的。从供需两端加大对消费供给主体和居民消费需求的金 融支持。 二是优服务。我们鼓励金融机构围绕扩大商品消费、发展服务消费和培育新型消费，丰富金融产品和服 务。鼓励针对数字、绿色、智能等新型消 ...

2026年以来，国际贵金属价格波动剧烈。1月29日，COMEX黄金期货价格一度升至5626.8美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货价格一度升至121.785美元/盎司，均创出历史最高纪录。然而，在创下历史新高后，市场突然遭遇猛烈 抛售。1月30日，COMEX黄金期货价格盘中跌幅超12%，创1980年以来最大单日跌幅；COMEX白银期货价格 盘中跌幅超35%，创历史最大单日跌幅。进入2月，贵金属价格保持高波动态势。市场人士认为，本轮贵金属价 格调整更偏向于短期交易拥挤度过高后的去杠杆过程，而非基本面趋势的系统性反转。对市场参与者而言，在 高波动常态化的市场环境中，对节奏与结构性机会的把握，将比单边趋势判断更为重要。 2025年，全球贵金属市场在宏观不确定性与流动性环境共同作用下持续走强，黄金与白银价格先后刷新历史高 位。上半年，美元信用边际收缩、地缘政治摩擦反复、美联储政策转向预期升温等因素推动避险与配置型资金 持续流入贵金属市场。下半年，随着全球经济"软着陆"预期逐步形成，白银在工业属性与金融属性共振下实现 补涨，金银比自高位区间回落，贵金属价格整体维持高斜率上行态势。2025年年末及2026年年初，贵金属市场 ...

后来我进入期货市场，更倾向于股指投资。我们统计过，在我们做股票的20年里，春节前一周市场表现 良好的有16年，但并非所有人都能在春节前的投资中获利。 2020年春节前，疫情初现端倪，同时棉花价格走势向好。我的同事勇哥认为棉花价格会大涨，所以在春 节前一两周开始布局棉花多单。 然而市场并未如他预期那样运行，那年春节前棉花价格不仅没涨，还一路下行，节前最后一个交易日几 乎以近两周的最低价收盘。但勇哥没有止损，反而补了近20手棉花多单。节后棉花期货直接以跌停开 盘，勇哥在跌停板打开时止损；第二天他反手做空，可棉花价格却持续反弹，恐慌之下他又在高位止 损。就这样，多空双杀让他乱了阵脚，后来干脆自暴自弃，最终因做多棉花爆仓。 在投资领域摸爬滚打这么多年，我逐渐理解了那句"江湖越老，胆子越小"。现在回想起来，2008年我们 能盈利多半是靠运气。那会儿想法特别简单：春节要到了，航空公司客流量少不了；我国要办奥运会， 奥运相关股票表现不会差。而那一年春节前后的行情，竟是近20年里涨幅最大的，我们那会根本不懂K 线图、市盈率，全凭直觉操作，纯粹是歪打正着。 每年春节前一两周，老同学杰哥总会邀我一起探讨投资方向。 这个习惯源于2 ...

当然，享受假期之余，我们也可以利用碎片化的时间读一本交易书籍，或了解海外市场的变化。这既能 让交易者保持对市场的敏感度，又不会让假期沦为另一种形式的"加班"，实现休息与蓄力的平衡。 真正的交易高手，能在市场中运筹帷幄，更能在生活中收放自如。(云霄) 倘若过去一年未能如愿盈利，也无需回避或焦虑，你可以坦诚地说："今年市场环境复杂，我没把握好 节奏，小有亏损，希望来年能做得更好。"真诚的回应能化解尴尬，也让亲友理解交易的风险。更重要 的是，这份坦然能让自己卸下心理包袱，不被亏损所束缚，安心享受假期。 春节假期，交易者难得按下"暂停键"，告别盘面、指标，回归生活。这时，不妨陪父母唠唠家常，帮家 里置办些年货，和许久未见的朋友聊聊天。这些烟火气十足的场景，能让紧绷的神经得到舒缓，也能让 疲惫的心灵获得治愈，以更松弛的状态为来年蓄力。 春节的脚步踏响归乡的序曲，团圆的餐桌旁、走亲访友的路上，交易者总会被格外"关注"。"今年赚了 不少吧？""听说金融市场风险大，你没亏太多吧？""你赚这么多，能带带我们吗？"一句句询问，往往 让沉浸在K线世界里的交易者瞬间绷紧神经。春节假期本是卸下重担、回归生活的时光，安心享受才是 对过往 ...

Group 1: Macro Environment and Market Sentiment - The upcoming Spring Festival holiday will see the domestic futures market enter a trading halt, while overseas markets will continue to operate, with macro data, geopolitical situations, and policy expectations potentially impacting the domestic market post-holiday [1] - Analysts suggest that despite limited significant overseas economic data during the holiday, geopolitical uncertainties necessitate careful position management and risk hedging [1] - Key macro data to watch includes the U.S. retail sales data on February 17, preliminary PMI values for Europe and the U.S. on February 20, and the U.S. Q4 GDP data also on February 20 [1] Group 2: Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector has experienced notable adjustments since February, primarily due to a significant drop in precious metal prices and declines in U.S. stock markets, leading to a general downward pressure on non-ferrous metals ahead of the Spring Festival [2] - If military actions are taken by the U.S. against Iran, it could escalate conflicts in the Middle East, potentially disrupting aluminum supply, as the Gulf region accounts for about 8% of global electrolytic aluminum production [2] - Mid-term outlook remains optimistic for non-ferrous metals, driven by continued Fed rate cuts and global fiscal expansion, which are expected to support manufacturing and increase demand for metals like copper, aluminum, and tin [2][3] Group 3: Precious Metals - Precious metals are currently in a volatile phase, with prices having declined significantly but showing some stabilization; the market sentiment remains bullish on gold in the medium term [4] - The CFTC's net long positions in silver have dropped to multi-year lows, indicating that short-term selling pressure has been largely released, while gold may have formed a temporary bottom [4] - Analysts recommend holding positions in gold during the holiday to minimize trading costs, while silver and platinum may require lighter positions or options for risk hedging due to their higher volatility [4] Group 4: Crude Oil - The crude oil market is heavily influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly the U.S.-Iran negotiations, which will dictate price movements; a breakdown in talks could lead to significant price increases [6] - Current oil prices already reflect some geopolitical risk premium, and if tensions do not escalate further, prices may enter a recovery phase [6] - Analysts suggest maintaining caution in trading strategies, utilizing options or spread trading to manage price volatility during the holiday period [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that President Trump is considering deploying an additional aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East if negotiations with Iran fail, emphasizing that any agreement must address both nuclear and ballistic missile issues [2] - Trump anticipates a second round of negotiations with Iran to take place the following week, expressing optimism about reaching a favorable agreement [2] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is traveling to the U.S. to provide Trump with new intelligence regarding Iran's military capabilities, particularly concerning its ballistic missile capabilities [2] Group 2 - Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif accuses Netanyahu of attempting to drag the U.S. into a war with Iran, asserting that Netanyahu does not support diplomatic solutions and has a history of military aggression in the region [4] - Zarif claims that Netanyahu's efforts to involve the U.S. in conflict with Iran have failed in the past and will continue to do so [4]

Group 1: Market Insights from Jim Rogers - Jim Rogers has liquidated all his U.S. stock holdings and is focusing on physical commodities like gold, silver, and copper as a "perfect insurance policy" for potential crises [1][2] - He emphasizes the importance of holding gold and silver, stating they will serve as a crucial refuge in times of crisis and can also provide significant returns if the market conditions are favorable [1] - Rogers highlights the increasing demand for copper across various industries, particularly in electric vehicles and electronics, while noting the limited new copper mines being developed globally [1] Group 2: Market Conditions Ahead of Chinese New Year - As the Chinese New Year approaches, the domestic futures market will enter a holiday period while overseas markets continue trading, with macroeconomic data and geopolitical tensions likely influencing market conditions [3] - Analysts suggest that despite limited significant macroeconomic data during the holiday, geopolitical uncertainties require careful position management and risk hedging [3] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals Market Outlook - The non-ferrous metals sector has experienced notable adjustments, with pressures from falling precious metal prices and declines in U.S. stock markets leading to a general pullback [4] - There is a potential risk of supply disruptions in the aluminum market due to possible military actions in the Middle East, which could significantly impact global aluminum supply [4] - The long-term outlook for non-ferrous metals remains optimistic, driven by continued demand from AI infrastructure investments and global manufacturing support [4][5] Group 4: Precious Metals Price Volatility - Precious metals are currently experiencing price volatility, with a notable decline in prices but a decrease in volatility levels, indicating a potential stabilization phase [7] - Market sentiment remains bullish on gold's mid-term prospects, while silver and platinum are more volatile due to their industrial applications [7] - The recent decline in precious metal prices is viewed as a stress test for future liquidity tightening risks, with gold still holding significant long-term investment value [7] Group 5: Oil Market Dynamics - The oil market is heavily influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly the outcomes of U.S.-Iran negotiations, which could significantly affect oil prices [8] - Current oil prices reflect a certain level of geopolitical risk premium, and if tensions do not escalate, prices may enter a recovery phase [8] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations are also critical, as any progress or setbacks could impact oil price volatility [8]

早上好，先来关注下重要消息。 特朗普：若美伊谈判失败，或向中东再派一支航母打击群 据央视新闻消息，当地时间2月10日，美国总统特朗普称他正在考虑，若与伊朗的谈判未能取得成果， 或向中东地区再派遣一支美国航母打击群，为可能的军事行动做准备。 特朗普当天还表示，"伊朗不会拥有核武器或者导弹"。 特朗普预计，美伊第二轮谈判将在下周举行。他强调，任何与伊朗达成的协议都必须不仅包括核问题， 还必须包括处理伊朗的弹道导弹问题。他补充说，"我们可以与伊朗达成一份非常好的协议"。 阿拉格齐表示，内塔尼亚胡一直试图将美国拖入同伊朗的战争，但相关企图已经失败。如果再次重复这 种失败的做法，结果也不会有任何不同。 内塔尼亚胡将向特朗普提供有关伊朗军事能力的新情报 据央视新闻消息，当地时间2月10日，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡启程前往美国，准备于当地时间2月11日与 特朗普举行会晤。出发前，内塔尼亚胡表示，他将向美方提出以色列在涉及伊朗问题上的所谓"原则性 立场"，并强调这些原则"不仅关乎以色列，也关乎所有希望实现和平与安全的国家"。 以色列消息人士称，以总理内塔尼亚胡在访美期间将向美国总统特朗普提供有关伊朗军事能力的新情 报，特别是关于 ...