Core Viewpoint - The coking coal market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with a high probability of maintaining a fluctuating pattern before the holiday. After the holiday, there are risks of a decline due to rapid supply recovery, slow demand recovery, and seasonal destocking pressures [1][5]. Supply Side Summary - Domestic coking coal supply is experiencing a phase of contraction, with some coal mines in Shanxi and Shandong resuming production after maintenance. However, this increase is temporary and not sustainable. As the Spring Festival approaches, more local coal mines are expected to stop production, leading to a tightening supply before the holiday [2]. - The import of Mongolian coking coal has decreased significantly, with daily customs clearance numbers dropping by 200 vehicles. The border crossings will temporarily close during the holiday, further reducing import volumes. The impact of Indonesia's coal production reduction policy on domestic coking coal supply is limited, as it primarily affects thermal coal [2]. Demand Side Summary - Downstream demand remains weak, with steel mills' average daily pig iron production slightly increasing to 2.2858 million tons. However, production expansion is constrained by maintenance schedules and inventory pressures. Steel mills are cautious in their procurement strategies due to moderate profitability [3]. - Coking plants have completed their pre-holiday restocking, leading to a slowdown in procurement activities. Many traders are also reducing their market activities as the holiday approaches, resulting in decreased market liquidity [3]. Futures Market Performance - The main coking coal futures contract has shown a range-bound trading pattern, with open interest declining from 532,700 contracts to 469,100 contracts, indicating reduced trading activity. Prices have fluctuated between 1,100 and 1,200 yuan per ton, with no significant driving factors for a one-sided market trend [4]. Outlook for Post-Holiday Market - After the holiday, there are risks of a decline in coking coal prices due to the rapid recovery of supply and the slower recovery of demand. Although there is a fundamental support for coking coal from the expected increase in pig iron production, seasonal destocking pressures may lead to price corrections [5].

Core Viewpoint - After the recent price adjustment, iron ore valuations are at a neutral to low level, and with the expected recovery of steel mills and macro policy support, further downside is limited. However, the market is expected to enter a phase of oversupply, leading to a downward shift in price levels throughout the year [1][8]. Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Since the end of January, iron ore prices have declined due to two main reasons: changes in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts and liquidity, and cautious raw material restocking by steel mills, with iron ore inventories down by 5.2968 million tons year-on-year across 247 steel mills [2]. - As of February 11, the main iron ore futures contract closed at 762.5 yuan/ton, indicating limited further downside in the current price position [1][2]. Group 2: Production and Supply Factors - Despite a recent incident affecting production, the average daily pig iron output across 247 steel mills has remained stable between 2.27 million and 2.29 million tons. Steel mills are likely to increase production in the traditional demand season of March-April to meet annual production targets [3]. - The first quarter is typically a supply off-season for iron ore, with historical data showing a decrease in shipments by 9.5 to 10 million tons compared to the previous quarter. However, high shipment levels were maintained in January due to fewer extreme weather events [5]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Outlook - There are expectations for further macroeconomic policy support, particularly in light of the emphasis on expanding domestic demand in upcoming economic meetings. The People's Bank of China has already implemented measures to lower structural monetary policy rates [6]. - The anticipated recovery in manufacturing demand, coupled with resilient export performance, is expected to boost iron ore demand [6]. Group 4: Valuation and Future Projections - Current iron ore prices are around 100 USD/ton, which is near a five-year low. The profit margins for steel mills have improved, indicating that iron ore valuations are at a neutral to low level [7]. - In the medium to long term, the market is expected to transition into a phase of oversupply, with significant increases in supply projected from emerging mines and major producers. The expected increase in iron ore supply for 2026 is estimated to be between 40 to 45 million tons [8].

Core Insights - The launch of lithium carbonate futures has restructured the pricing logic in the lithium battery industry and integrated risk management tools into various segments of the industry chain, becoming essential for enterprises to manage price fluctuations and stabilize operations [1][3][4]. Industry Development - The lithium carbonate industry has developed a complete and mature supply chain, and the introduction of futures has injected new vitality into this sector, providing a new price discovery mechanism and risk management system [3][4]. - The futures market has transformed the pricing model in the lithium industry, requiring companies to respond more quickly to market price fluctuations, thereby enhancing market sensitivity and professional judgment [4][14]. Risk Management - Futures tools allow industry enterprises to shift from passively enduring price fluctuations to actively managing price risks, marking significant progress in the lithium battery sector [4][6]. - The core logic of hedging is to transfer risks through the futures market, safeguarding spot operations [3][9]. Market Participation - The market participants have diversified since the launch of lithium carbonate futures, with financial institutions, futures companies, and funds entering the market, enhancing liquidity and trading activity [4][12]. - The introduction of futures has fundamentally changed the operational rhythm and response strategies of enterprises, necessitating timely adjustments to pricing strategies [4][12]. Practical Application - Companies like Tianqi Lithium have actively explored the application of lithium carbonate futures, integrating hedging into daily operations to achieve stable development [8][9]. - A professional market analysis team within the company focuses on supply and demand relationships to ensure that futures operations align with industry realities [9][10]. Future Outlook - The integration of futures tools into the lithium industry is expected to deepen, with the potential for more diverse and professional risk management tools as the futures market evolves [14]. - The company aims to continue optimizing its hedging operations and serve as a model for other industry enterprises to leverage futures tools effectively [14].

Core Insights - The commodity market is transitioning from a "broad increase" to "structural differentiation," with funds shifting towards undervalued sectors with solid fundamentals [1][3] - The historical divergence between "green metals" (copper, lithium, nickel) and traditional energy (crude oil, coal) has become a defining feature of the current market [3][4] - The current commodity cycle is characterized by a unique combination of financial and strategic attributes, driven by structural narratives rather than traditional economic growth [7][12] Market Dynamics - The supply-demand relationship for green metals is tight due to rigid supply and explosive demand, while traditional energy faces relaxed supply and slowing demand [3][4] - The global supply chain is shifting from "efficiency-first" globalization to "security-first" regionalization, impacting commodity pricing and availability [4][20] - Recent price movements, such as a 30% increase in LME copper prices in January 2026, reflect the new characteristics of the market [4] Historical Context - The current commodity cycle shows similarities to the 1970s, with a focus on the restructuring of the global monetary system and ongoing supply chain disruptions [11][12] - The previous commodity supercycle was driven by China's industrialization and urbanization, while the current cycle is influenced by AI infrastructure and green transitions [7][12] Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on the fundamental differences among commodities to identify structural opportunities [4][13] - Key commodities to watch include zinc, wheat, iron ore, and platinum, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [15][24] - The chemical sector is anticipated to see growth due to domestic policy changes and supply optimization, with specific attention to products with strong export expectations [14] Future Outlook - The commodity market is expected to continue exhibiting significant differentiation, with traditional rotation patterns being disrupted [13][24] - The focus on strategic resources like gold, silver, copper, and tin is likely to lead to a scenario where these commodities experience upward price pressure while others may lag [24]

2026年开年，商品市场板块轮动脉络清晰：贵金属率先领跑，工业金属接力走强，能源化工低位起势。 当前商品市场正从"普涨" 转向 "结构性分化"，资金逐步向低估值、基本面扎实的板块切换。新春来临 之际，期货日报特别推出专题报道，通过采访业内专家与产业人士，拆解当前市场特征，厘清市场发展 脉络。 关键词：新旧背离 近期，全球商品市场经历了剧烈波动，贵金属、有色金属及能源化工板块均出现大幅调整。在这一市场 背景下，期货日报记者采访了前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙和格林大华期货首席专家王骏，从产业 与宏观视角解读当前市场的结构性变化与投资逻辑。 "新旧资源的历史性背离已成定局。"格林大华期货首席专家王骏开门见山地说。在他看来，当前商品市 场最根本的变化在于"绿色金属"（铜、锂、镍等）与传统能源（原油、煤炭）的供需关系出现了方向性 背离。前者呈现"供给刚性+需求爆发"的紧平衡格局，后者则面临"供给宽松+需求放缓"的局面。 这一背离直接导致了板块轮动逻辑的根本转变。"商品牛市往往呈现板块普涨、周期共振的特征，而当 前市场更多表现为结构性分化。"王骏分析道，这种分化背后是全球碳中和目标倒逼的能源结构调整， 直接拉动了铜、锂 ...

早上好，一起来看下重要消息。 刚刚，美以领导人闭门会晤结束。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间11日，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡与美国总统特朗普举行闭门会晤。 这场持续约三小时的闭门会晤举行期间，有以色列和美国知情官员消息称，以美双方都对美伊达成协议 的可能性"持怀疑态度"，会晤旨在就如果美国与伊朗未能通过谈判达成协议制定一项"共同行动方案"。 特朗普当天在其社交媒体平台"真实社交"发文称，他与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡及其多位代表举行了会 晤，会晤非常成功。特朗普说，双方未达成具体决定，但他坚持要求与伊朗的谈判继续进行，以期达成 协议。 以色列总理府在会晤结束后发表声明说，内塔尼亚胡与特朗普讨论了美伊谈判、加沙地带、中东地区局 势等议题，就美伊谈判强调以方"安全需求"。双方"一致同意继续保持协调，并巩固彼此间的紧密联 系"。 内塔尼亚胡则被曝向特朗普传递信息称，任何与伊朗达成的协议都必须不设置到期时间，并应确保伊朗 永远无法获得核武器。 伊朗重申核谈判立场，谴责以色列"挑起事端" 据央视新闻报道，2月11日，伊朗方面也就与美交涉密集表态，并重申了伊方在核问题上的立场。 伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书、最高领袖顾问拉里贾尼表示，伊朗 ...

"值得注意的是，印尼官方此前明确将18000~20000美元/吨定为镍价调控目标，而该价格区间正是印尼 2025年4月修改后的采矿特许权使用费上调界限，企业是否愿意维持镍价在这一区间以上，成为市场未 来的潜在风险点。"楼家豪补充道。 张再宇也认为，今年镍矿市场的供需将处于紧平衡状态。"印尼官方的公开表态削弱了市场对其政策的 质疑，对盘面形成利多支撑。"他说。 "值得注意的是，此前资金交易时，矿端并无实际起色。如今，矿端供应紧张已开始显现。与此同时，2 月印尼镍矿溢价和基准价同步上涨，1.6%品位的镍矿总价较1月底抬升近7元/吨，至61元/吨。在湿法供 应尚未兑现的背景下，成本曲线短期锚定火法，镍矿涨价或推动火法成本抬升至0.5万元/吨以上。"张再 宇说。 戴瑞认为，供应紧张的现实让沪镍从底部支撑位（13万元/吨）开始走强，未来盘面将围绕产业链结构 性脱节的矛盾进行博弈。 不过，信达期货有色金属分析师楼家豪提醒，尽管菲律宾红土镍矿到港价格小幅上调，带来了一定的成 本支撑，但镍矿港口库存在连续9周去化后，仍处于2020年印尼禁矿后的历史同期次高位。同时，菲律 宾镍矿离港数据未出现明显下降、同比甚至有所上升，矿端库 ...

Group 1: US-Israel Meeting and Iran Negotiations - The closed-door meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and US President Trump lasted approximately three hours, focusing on the potential for a US-Iran agreement and the need for a joint action plan if negotiations fail [1][3] - Both parties expressed skepticism about the likelihood of reaching an agreement with Iran, emphasizing Israel's security needs and the importance of ensuring Iran cannot acquire nuclear weapons [3][4] - Iran reiterated its stance on nuclear negotiations, indicating that while it is open to discussions, it has not received specific proposals from the US [3][4] Group 2: Military Deployments and Preparedness - The US military is enhancing its presence in the Middle East, with plans to deploy a second aircraft carrier strike group in preparation for potential military action against Iran [5][7] - Recent satellite imagery shows an increase in military assets at US bases in Qatar, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Diego Garcia, indicating heightened readiness [5][7] - Israel is also strengthening its domestic defense capabilities, having completed complex tests of the "David's Sling" missile defense system, marking a significant technical and operational advancement [7] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Outlook - The US labor market showed strong performance in January, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 130,000, significantly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3% [8][9] - This robust employment data has led to a reduction in market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with a 94.1% probability of maintaining current rates in March [9][10] - Analysts suggest that the strong job growth and stable unemployment rate provide evidence of economic resilience, potentially influencing the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged in the near term [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of lithium carbonate futures has restructured the pricing logic in the lithium battery industry and integrated risk management tools into various segments of the industry chain, becoming essential for enterprises to manage price fluctuations and stabilize operations [1][2]. Industry Development - The lithium carbonate industry has developed a mature supply chain, and the introduction of futures has injected new vitality into this sector, providing a new price discovery mechanism and risk management system [2]. - The listing of lithium carbonate futures has fundamentally changed the pricing model in the industry, requiring companies to respond more quickly to market price fluctuations [5]. Pricing Mechanism - The futures prices provide a fair and transparent price reference for the industry, moving away from reliance on quoted prices or fixed pricing models [3]. - Futures tools allow enterprises to shift from passive acceptance of price fluctuations to proactive management of price risks, marking significant progress in the lithium battery industry [3]. Market Participation - Prior to the futures listing, market participants were mainly industry enterprises and a few traders, but the market has since diversified with the entry of financial institutions and futures companies, enhancing liquidity and trading activity [4]. - The diversification of market participants has transformed the lithium market into a composite market that integrates industry and finance, reflecting real market supply and demand [4]. Operational Changes - The listing of lithium carbonate futures has led to significant changes in corporate operational strategies, compelling companies to enhance their market sensitivity and analytical capabilities [5]. - Futures tools provide customized services tailored to specific enterprise needs, allowing for more flexible risk management options [5]. Practical Application - Companies like Tianqi Lithium have actively explored the application of lithium carbonate futures, integrating hedging into daily operations to achieve stable development [6]. - A focus on fundamental analysis and a calm operational approach are key to successful futures trading, ensuring that operations align with market realities [6][7]. Risk Management - Companies must establish a robust risk management system, ensuring that trading scales match their financial reserves to effectively utilize futures tools [8]. - The essence of hedging is to stabilize operations rather than pursue speculative gains, emphasizing the importance of aligning futures trading with actual market needs [7]. Collaborative Efforts - The successful application of lithium carbonate futures in the industry relies on the collaborative efforts of exchanges, futures companies, and industry enterprises [9][10]. - Continuous professional development and training for industry participants are crucial for maximizing the value of futures tools [10][11]. Future Outlook - The futures market is expected to provide more diverse and professional risk management tools as the system of futures products continues to evolve [12]. - Tianqi Lithium aims to deepen the integration of futures and spot markets, enhancing its hedging operations and leading other enterprises in utilizing futures tools for high-quality development in the new energy sector [12].

Core Insights - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that in January 2026, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.041 million and 0.945 million units, representing year-on-year growth of 2.5% and 0.1% respectively [1] - Overall, the automotive industry produced and sold 2.45 million and 2.346 million vehicles in January [1] - The Deputy Secretary-General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, Chen Shihua, stated that the automotive industry is operating smoothly at the beginning of 2026, with policies focusing on the automotive aftermarket stimulating market vitality [1]