本报讯为落实工业和信息化部、英国商业贸易部签署的《第二次中英产业合作对话联合成果》，10月21 日，工业和信息化部节能与综合利用司、英国能源安全与净零部工业脱碳与碳排放交易司在北京共同召 开中英工业减碳工作组第一次会议。 双方围绕工业减碳政策、重点行业电气化转型、碳捕集利用与封存技术、工业产品碳足迹标准体系建设 等议题进行交流探讨，并针对中英工业减碳工作组后续工作考虑交流意见。(齐宣) ...

本报讯据农业农村部"全国农产品批发市场价格信息系统"监测，8月以来，猪肉批发均价已连降10周。 中国农业科学院北京畜牧兽医研究所研究员朱增勇表示，猪价持续下跌是因为供给量增加，今年8月 底、9月初，由于前期供应增加，猪价并未出现预期中的上涨，造成了养殖端恐慌性出栏。十一之后， 随着季节性消费需求回落，猪价继续下跌。至于猪价还会跌多久，他表示，10月中旬的猪价或已是全年 低位。(齐宣) ...

10月中旬以来，受华北地区连续阴雨、玉米减产预期升温影响，大连玉米期货价格扭转9月下旬以来的 单边下行趋势，开始小幅增仓上行。展望后市，随着玉米减产降质坐实，玉米期货或仍有反弹空间。 10月以来，华北玉米主产区遭受了近几十年以来时间最长的阴雨天气，多地累计降雨量已打破历史纪 录。由于缺乏自然晾晒条件，玉米霉变数量增多，优质玉米数量急剧下降，玉米有效供应量减少。这将 使该地区饲料企业对东北玉米的依赖度增加，从而提振国内玉米价格整体走高。9月市场机构预计今年 国产玉米产量稳中有增。其中，农业农村部市场预警专家委员会预计，2025/2026年度全国玉米产量为 29616万吨，较去年增加124万吨；播种面积为4487万公顷，较去年增加13.2万公顷；单产为每公顷6600 公斤，较去年增8公斤。但随着降雨增加，市场可能下调玉米产量，较大的预期差会产生利多支撑。 综上所述，短期来看，华北阴雨导致的玉米减产降质已成事实，叠加进口量减少形成的供应端利多，将 持续支撑玉米期货价格震荡上行。尽管深加工需求有所减弱，但饲料需求的稳健增长能部分对冲这一压 力，市场供需格局正从前期的宽松转向紧平衡。（作者单位：中天研究院） （文章来源 ...

眼下正值花生收获关键期，部分主产区却遭遇"先旱后涝"的连环考验。持续的阴雨天气不仅影响新季花 生的产量与品质，也在期货市场上得到了体现——主力合约持仓量一度创下历史新高。然而，高持仓量 并未推高花生期货价格，新季花生的产量与价格悬念仍未揭晓。 从主产区情况来看，东北地区整体供应稳定，且花生质量较好；山东西南地区单产及质量均不理想；河 南地区收获、晾晒都受了不同程度的影响。 "我们在河南产区调研时发现，9—10月的降雨对河南大部分地区的花生产量影响不大，但部分地区质量 确实打了折扣。比如，豫北地区产量跟去年差不多，但约一成的早收花生在淋雨后品质下降。"卓创资 讯花生分析师严琳表示。具体来看，开封、周口等地的蒜茬花生产量没有下降，但生长成熟期遭遇持续 的阴雨天气，导致三成左右的花生发芽、发霉。驻马店的白沙花生饱满度比去年好，含油率也高了，但 太饱满反而容易出现黑筋，加上雨水多，花生皮色偏黄。南阳阴雨天气更多，花生发芽、发霉的情况比 驻马店更严重。 今年河南产区注定减产？"也不一定。"河南驰戍农业经理郑霈茹告诉期货日报记者，虽然天气给花生生 产"添了乱"，但农户们都在想方设法抢收，尽可能减少损失。而且，8月下旬那场 ...

早上好，昨夜今晨，贵金属价格集体大跳水。 21日晚，现货黄金价格一度下跌6.3%，创下自2013年4月以来的最大单日跌幅。现货白银价格一度下跌 8.7%，创下自2021年以来的最大跌幅。COMEX黄金期货价格下跌5.28%。COMEX白银期货价格下跌 7.67%。 当地时间21日晚，乌克兰总统泽连斯基在讲话中表示，乌方已完成与欧洲伙伴即将举行会晤的准备工 作，并将在本周签署一项关于防御能力的新协议。泽连斯基称，这项协议将在事实上成为乌克兰长期安 全保障的一部分，为国家和人民提供持久保护。 他指出，乌克兰与伙伴国家在外交问题上保持一致立场。泽连斯基重申，乌克兰已准备好结束俄乌冲 突。他透露，他与美国总统特朗普举行会谈期间，双方同意尝试以当前前线为基础进行谈判。 花旗银行预计，美国政府"停摆"结束及中美贸易摩擦缓和可能推动黄金价格在未来3周内进入震荡整理 阶段。花旗银行表示，短期内看跌黄金价格（此前看涨），设定1~3个月目标价为4000美元/盎司。 彭博策略师Tatiana Darie表示，目前ETF的黄金持有量绝对值尚未达到过去峰值，涨势往往会持续更长 时间。但历史数据显示上涨动能最终会消退，多数情况下买盘会转 ...

昨夜今晨，贵金属价格集体大跳水。 21日晚，现货黄金价格一度下跌6.3%，创下自2013年4月以来的最大单日跌幅。现货白银价格一度下跌 8.7%，创下自2021年以来的最大跌幅。COMEX黄金期货价格下跌5.28%。COMEX白银期货价格下跌 7.67%。 此外，现货铂金跌幅扩大至8%，报1521.51美元／盎司。内盘方面，沪金主力合约日内大跌4.72%，沪 银主力合约日内大跌4.91%。 截至发稿，金银价格跌幅有所收窄。COMEX黄金期货价格收跌4.94%，报4144.1美元／盎司；COMEX 白银期货价格收跌6.37%，报48.11美元／盎司。现货黄金价格跌5.43%，现货白银价格跌7.61%。 消息面上，在中美贸易摩擦缓和的背景下，白宫首席经济顾问哈塞特释放出政府"停摆"问题有望在本周 取得进展的信号。哈塞特周一表示，美国政府的"关门危机"很可能在本周内结束。 花旗银行预计，美国政府"停摆"结束及中美贸易摩擦缓和可能推动黄金价格在未来3周内进入震荡整理 阶段。花旗银行表示，短期内看跌黄金价格（此前看涨），设定1~3个月目标价为4000美元／盎司。 路透统计口径数据显示，海外主要黄金ETF总持仓量由9月2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The plastic market is currently facing a triple dilemma of "supply pressure, demand pressure, and cost collapse," leading to a bearish outlook for the plastic futures 2601 contract price [5] Group 1: Supply Factors - Domestic polyethylene (PE) production capacity continues to expand, with several petrochemical companies restarting production after maintenance, contributing to a marginal increase in supply [3] - The cost of oil-based polyethylene has significantly decreased, with the domestic oil-based cost reported at 7176 yuan/ton, down 390 yuan/ton week-on-week, while coal-based cost is at 6507 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan/ton [2] - The overall capacity utilization in the petrochemical industry remains low due to overcapacity, leading to increased market supply pressure as companies adopt a "price for volume" strategy to maintain cash flow and market share [3] Group 2: Demand Factors - Demand for plastic is significantly weaker than expected, with the traditional peak season in October not translating into substantial purchasing activity, resulting in a cautious market sentiment [4] - The overall operating rate for downstream polyethylene is at its lowest for the same period in recent years, with limited support from upcoming events like "Double 11" [4] - Domestic polyethylene inventory has slightly increased, with a reported inventory of 54.56 million tons, up 2.12 million tons week-on-week, indicating a lack of strong demand [4] Group 3: Price Dynamics - The pricing logic in the plastic futures market has shifted from being driven by "cost + demand" to "cost + supply," leading to a downward adjustment in market pricing [2] - The Southeast Asian plastic market is currently buyer-dominated, with buyers having ample options and a continuous decline in price expectations [2] - The combination of weak demand and falling costs is expected to keep the price of the plastic futures 2601 contract on a downward trajectory [5]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic coking coal market is currently in a state of weak supply-demand balance, with prices showing a fluctuating trend influenced by multiple factors including fundamentals, policy disturbances, and macro sentiment [1] Supply Side - The recovery pace of coking coal supply is stable, with domestic coal mines gradually returning to normal production levels after the National Day holiday [2] - Import channels have resumed normal operations, with significant increases in Mongolian coal imports expected due to a trial of full-load transportation mode [2] - The international forward market remains stable, with Australian premium coking coal prices holding at $205.5 per ton, while Russian coal markets are stable with active inquiries but a cautious outlook [2] Demand Side - Overall, there is still support from rigid demand, but the purchasing pace from downstream sectors has slowed [3] - Daily average pig iron production from 247 steel mills remains high at 241.54 million tons, indicating that the rigid demand for coking coal has not completely disappeared [3] - Steel prices are under pressure, which may weaken the overall demand for coking coal [3] Inventory Situation - Upstream coal mine inventories have seen a slight accumulation, but the pressure is not significant, with raw coal inventory at 4.4635 million tons and washed coal inventory at 1.959 million tons [4] - The inventory levels are relatively low compared to the annual average, and the accumulation is attributed to normal purchasing pauses during the holiday rather than weak demand [4] - Downstream sectors are continuing to reduce inventories, which supports coking coal prices [4] External Factors - The macro environment is providing support for the market, with coal and coke prices continuing to show a fluctuating trend without significant volatility [5] - The recovery of domestic coal production to pre-holiday levels is limited in further incremental space, and regulatory policies may constrain supply [5] - The short-term supply pressure is manageable, with high pig iron production levels maintaining some rigid demand for coking coal [5]

Group 1: PVC Market Overview - PVC futures have shown a "V" shaped trend since June 2025, with market logic returning to fundamentals after a period of "anti-involution" [1] - As of now, 1.75 million tons of new PVC production capacity has been added in 2025, with major contributions from companies like Xinpu Chemical and Wanhu Fujian [1] - The total production capacity for PVC is expected to reach 1.95 million tons this year, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 7% [1] Group 2: Supply and Production Data - From January to September 2025, the cumulative PVC production reached 18.11 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.11%, with ethylene-based production growing by 9.78% [1] - The supply pressure is primarily driven by ethylene-based production, and with fewer maintenance activities in the fourth quarter, supply-side pressure is expected to increase further [1] Group 3: Demand and Real Estate Impact - PVC is closely linked to the real estate sector, which has seen a decline in investment and construction activities, with a 13.9% drop in real estate development investment from January to September 2025 [2] - The operating rates for downstream products, particularly those related to real estate, remain at historically low levels, indicating weak domestic demand for PVC [2] Group 4: Export Dynamics - Cumulative PVC powder exports from January to September 2025 reached 2.92 million tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 51%, with major markets including India and Vietnam [3] - However, the potential for export decline in the fourth quarter is a concern due to India's anti-dumping tax adjustments and ongoing trade tensions [3] Group 5: Inventory and Pricing - Domestic PVC social inventory stands at 1.0338 million tons, showing a slight decrease from the previous month but a year-on-year increase of 24.48% [3] - The prices of raw materials like calcium carbide and ethylene remain low, contributing to ongoing losses in production methods, yet the overall PVC operating rate has not decreased due to acceptable chlor-alkali profits [4] Group 6: Overall Market Sentiment - The PVC market is characterized by significant supply pressure and weak demand, particularly influenced by the downturn in the real estate sector [4] - The overall sentiment remains bearish, with caution advised for bottom-fishing strategies, while monitoring for potential stabilization signals in the market [4]

在利空因素主导下，近期氧化铝期货震荡走弱，主力合约期价在2750元／吨一线附近徘徊。 2024年，我国氧化铝贸易结构持续由净进口向净出口转变，今年以来整体延续净出口态势。9月氧化铝 进口量为 5.998万吨，环比下降36.43%，但同比仍增长61.68%；出口量则为24.642万吨，环比增长 36.52%，同比增幅达82.26%。 近期，海外氧化铝产量持续上升，带动现货价格明显回落，进而使得国内进口窗口自9月初以来保持开 启。截至10月16日，西澳FOB氧化铝价格为323美元／吨，较7月高点下跌15%。进口仍有利润空间，截 至10月20日，国内氧化铝进口利润为79.8元／吨。从进口来源看，我国氧化铝进口格局正逐步多元化， 除传统来源地澳大利亚外，已进一步扩展至印尼、越南、印度等多个国家。 国内电解铝产量高位运行 据SMM统计，9月国内电解铝产量为361.48万吨，同比增长1.14%，环比减少3.18%。9月处于传统旺 季，国内电解铝厂铝水比例环比增长1.2个百分点，至76.3%；铸锭量则同比减少8.67%，至约85.7万 吨。 SMM数据显示，9月中国铝土矿产量为488.21万吨，同比下滑2.32%。受雨季持 ...