Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose by 2.17% to $5050.50 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 1.98% to $77.180 per ounce [1] - The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.10%, the Nasdaq down 0.22%, and the S&P 500 up 0.05% [1] - Major tech stocks like Apple and Nvidia fell over 2%, while Google and Meta dropped more than 1% [1] Domestic Metal Market - The domestic metal market saw a general decline before the Spring Festival, with significant drops in prices for tin and silver [3] - Shanghai gold futures fell by 1.61% to 1110.10 yuan per gram, while Shanghai silver futures dropped by 5.52% to 19782 yuan per kilogram [3] - The decline in gold and silver prices is attributed to weakened market sentiment and risk appetite, exacerbated by a significant drop in US stocks [3][4] Employment Data Impact - The US non-farm payroll data for January showed an increase of 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 70,000 [4] - This strong employment data has reduced the perceived necessity for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in the short term [4] - However, the total projected job growth for 2025 was revised down by 898,000, indicating that one month's data may not reflect a complete turnaround in the job market [4] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the gold and silver markets are currently in a "rebalancing" phase, with prices expected to remain volatile in the short term [5] - Long-term factors such as high global debt, geopolitical tensions, and structural shortages in silver are expected to support higher prices after adjustments [5] - The upcoming release of key macroeconomic data during the holiday period is anticipated to significantly influence precious metal prices post-holiday [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the European shipping index futures prices, exceeding 6%, is attributed to geopolitical tensions and short sellers exiting the market, despite no significant changes in the fundamentals [2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The increase in European shipping futures is primarily driven by geopolitical factors, particularly the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which has heightened market volatility [2][4]. - Analysts note that the shipping companies have not yet implemented the previously announced price increases for March, indicating a potential disconnect between market expectations and actual pricing [2][4]. - The market is currently experiencing a seasonal downturn in shipping volumes post-Chinese New Year, which is expected to exert downward pressure on spot freight rates [3][4]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the upcoming months may see continued volatility in European shipping futures due to potential "black swan" events related to geopolitical and tariff policy changes, as well as adverse weather conditions affecting shipping schedules [3]. - The influx of new ships entering the market could lead to a more relaxed supply-demand balance, further pressuring freight rates in the medium to long term [3][4]. - The overall sentiment indicates that while there may be short-term support for freight rates due to anticipated economic improvements, the long-term outlook remains cautious due to the expected increase in shipping capacity and the resumption of operations in the Red Sea [4].

业内人士认为，此前一段时间，碳酸锂价格的上涨驱动主要来自供需关系预期的扭转，近期碳酸锂价格 震荡回落态势，本质上是对前期储能需求预期过热的理性纠偏。值得关注的是，贵金属和有色金属价格 下跌对碳酸锂市场形成了传导效应，在春节假期临近之际，资金避险需求提升，投资者交易心态也更为 谨慎。碳酸锂市场的交易逻辑，正经历从"宏观情绪扰动"转向"基本面主导"的轮换。 此外，张维鑫提醒，避免过度依赖单一消息进行交易。他举例说，近期市场流传江西某锂盐厂产线着 火，每月产量或将减少500~800吨，事实上，这对市场供需格局的整体影响较为有限。"产线因故维修可 能导致短期产量减少，影响当下的供给，但从中长期看，产量可能并不会减少，长期影响较为有 限。"张维鑫认为，投资者应该理性看待单一事件对碳酸锂市场的影响，不宜过度交易单一信息，应及 时做好风控措施，理性持仓。 春节假期前夕，碳酸锂期货价格围绕150000元/吨关口附近波动。截至2月13日收盘，主力合约LC2605 价格报收152640元/吨。 从基本面看，当前碳酸锂市场仍处于去库态势。据上海有色网数据，截至2月13日当周，碳酸锂库存为 102932吨，环比去库2531吨，去库幅 ...

Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose by 2.17% to $5050.50 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 1.98% to $77.180 per ounce [2] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.10%, the Nasdaq down 0.22%, and the S&P 500 up 0.05%. Notably, major tech stocks like Apple and Nvidia fell over 2% [3] Domestic Metal Market - The domestic metal market experienced a general decline before the Spring Festival, with significant drops in prices for tin and silver. Specifically, Shanghai gold futures fell by 1.61% to 1110.10 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures dropped by 5.52% to 19782 yuan per kilogram [4][6] - The decline in gold and silver prices is attributed to weakened market sentiment and risk appetite, exacerbated by a significant drop in U.S. stocks [6] Employment Data Impact - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for January showed an increase of 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 70,000. This data alleviated concerns about a deteriorating job market and reduced the perceived necessity for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in the short term [7] - However, the total projected job growth for 2025 was revised down by 898,000, indicating that one month's data may not be sufficient to determine a trend reversal in the job market [7] Gold and Silver Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the gold and silver markets are currently in a "rebalancing" phase, with prices expected to remain volatile in the short term. However, long-term factors such as high global debt and geopolitical tensions are likely to support upward price movements for gold and silver [8] - The upcoming U.S. PCE and GDP data during the holiday period are anticipated to significantly influence market pricing for U.S. economic conditions and inflation [8]

随着市场情绪降温，此前持续上涨的碳酸锂价格开始转向震荡态势。春节假期前夕，碳酸锂价格则围绕 150000元/吨关口附近波动。截至2月13日收盘，碳酸锂期货主力合约LC2605报152640元/吨。 业内人士认为，近期碳酸锂价格的波动，主要体现为宏观政策和基本面的共振。此前一段时间，碳酸锂 价格的上涨驱动主要来自供需关系预期的扭转，近期碳酸锂价格震荡回落态势，本质上是对前期储能需 求预期过热的理性纠偏。值得额外关注的是，在宏观情绪的不确定影响下，贵金属和有色金属价格下跌 对碳酸锂市场形成传导效应，在春节假期临近之际，资金避险需求提升，投资者交易心态也更为谨慎。 展望后市，碳酸锂市场的交易逻辑或从"宏观情绪扰动"转向"基本面主导"的轮换。 碳酸锂价格紧随基本面均衡点波动 整体来看，当前碳酸锂价格走势始终围绕供需关系波动。2025年上半年，受贸易摩擦与宏观情绪走弱影 响，碳酸锂市场呈现供过于求态势，价格一度跌破60000元/吨，上游企业采取降本措施。进入2025下半 年，在供给端扰动频发与终端需求超预期的共同推动下，碳酸锂市场开始呈现紧平衡态势，价格也自低 位强势反弹，快速突破100000元/吨。 "2025年，碳 ...

蒙特贝尔维尤是全球最重要的天然气凝液价格基准之一 蒙特贝尔维尤基准的交易量增长来自美国国内和国际市场，交易者被其更高的流动性水平所吸引 正如俄克拉荷马州库欣逐步发展为全球现货原油价格的基准一样，位于得克萨斯州墨西哥湾沿岸的蒙特贝尔维尤(Mont Belvieu)也巩固了其作为 全球石化和能源行业所用天然气凝液主要定价中心的地位。 蒙特贝尔维尤位于休斯顿以东30英里处，地理位置优越，是天然气凝液加工和贸易的基石。该地区独特的天然盐丘地层提供了必要的地下储存 空间，容量超过4亿桶，形成了一个规模庞大、成本低廉的天然气凝液储存设施。可储存的品种包括丙烷(用于家庭供暖和户外烧烤)、乙烷(乙 烯的主要原料，进一步加工为塑料瓶使用的聚乙烯)、丁烷和异丁烷(用作运输燃料的原料和混合原料)等。 管道网络将分馏装置与美国各地的主要天然气凝液消费方相连，并通过休斯顿航道的进出口码头接入国际市场。这些分馏装置负责将从天然气 井中提取的天然气凝液混合物分离为乙烷、丙烷和丁烷等单一组分。分馏和储存设施的主要所有者和运营商包括Energy Transfer、Enterprise Products、Oneok以及Targa Resourc ...

Core Viewpoint - In January, domestic policies aimed at stabilizing demand were implemented intensively, leading to significant support for market demand and a strong performance in the commodity market, as evidenced by the rise in the China Securities Commodity Futures Index and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index [1][5]. Index Performance Analysis - In January, the China Securities Commodity Futures Index rose by 13.57%, while the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index increased by 13.64%, indicating a strong upward trend in the commodity indices with a volatility of 19.71% throughout the month [2]. - The commodity market's strong performance was influenced by international factors, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and geopolitical risks, which heightened market sentiment towards commodities [4]. Domestic Policy Impact - The implementation of a series of fiscal and financial policies aimed at boosting domestic demand has led to a significant improvement in the commodity market, with a broad-based increase replacing the previous differentiated performance [5]. - The People's Bank of China lowered the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points, which has positively impacted the industrial sector [5]. Sector-Specific Analysis Energy and Chemical Sector - The energy and chemical sector showed a strong performance in January, with the China Securities Energy Chemical Industry Futures Index rising by 7.54%, driven by improved demand and cost support [8][10]. - The demand for energy products, such as gasoline and diesel, improved due to the implementation of domestic policies and international geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices [10]. Steel Sector - The China Securities Steel Futures Index increased by 0.64%, supported by high demand and inventory reduction, with hot-rolled coil export orders rising by 12% year-on-year [12]. - The supply side faced tightening due to disruptions in Brazilian iron ore shipments, which provided additional cost support for the steel sector [12]. Construction Materials Sector - The China Securities Construction Materials Futures Index rose by 1.87%, reflecting a recovery in demand driven by accelerated infrastructure projects and supply-side adjustments [13]. - The market sentiment improved as the issuance of long-term special government bonds directed funds towards construction material projects [13]. Agricultural Products Sector - The China Securities Agricultural Products Index increased by 1.72%, with notable performance in oilseeds and soft commodities, driven by supply constraints and recovering demand [14]. - Palm oil prices rose due to adverse weather conditions in Malaysia, while cotton prices were supported by rising domestic purchase prices and weakening dollar index [14]. Contribution to Index Returns - The top contributors to the China Securities Commodity Futures Index in January were silver (4.09%), gold (1.47%), and crude oil (1.01%), while the only negative contributor was soda ash (-0.01%) [15][17]. - The strong performance of precious metals was attributed to increased safe-haven buying amid Federal Reserve policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [17].

随着春节假期临近，国内油脂市场避险情绪升温。豆油与棕榈油在各自基本面及外盘因素交织影响下， 走势各有侧重，同时保持联动。 豆油静待政策风向 豆油市场当前焦点是3月初即将确定的美国2026年生物燃料强制掺混配额。政策利好预期持续提振美豆 油及全球豆油需求前景。近期美国财政部发布的45Z清洁燃料税收抵免拟议规则，对美豆油期价构成深 刻且多层次的长期结构性支撑。 国内市场方面，随着春节临近，市场避险情绪升温，对价格形成一定拖累。此外，潜在风险同样不容忽 视。一方面，需密切关注东南亚产区后续天气变化，若天气状况转好，可能缓解市场对棕榈油供应收缩 的预期。另一方面，需跟踪主要进口国的采购节奏，特别是印度在补充一定库存后，后续采购力度能否 持续强劲，若出现放缓迹象，可能削弱出口对价格的支撑。因此，节后市场应重点关注2月马来西亚棕 榈油产量预估、高频出口数据以及国内港口实际到货节奏，上述因素将成为影响棕榈油价格波动的关键 变量。 （文章来源：期货日报） 棕榈油面临供需变局 棕榈油市场的核心逻辑围绕产地供应收缩、出口需求回暖及库存超预期下降展开，这一格局在马来西亚 棕榈油局最新报告中得到全面印证与强化，也彻底扭转了此前市场对 ...

回顾2025年，在丰产及成本下降共同作用下，国内玉米期现货价格跌至低位。进入2026年2月，玉米期 货主力合约由2603切换至2605。临近春节，市场购销基本停滞，基本面整体变化不大。 钢联数据显示，截至2月6日，全国售粮进度为61%，同比偏快4个百分点。其中，东北售粮进度达 64%，同比偏快8个百分点；华北售粮进度为57%，同比偏快2个百分点。随着春节临近，基层种植户及 部分持粮主体出货意愿增强，市场供应增量较为明显，北方港口到货量由50万吨/周增加至80万吨/周。 整体来看，国内售粮进度同比偏快，节后售粮压力或有所减轻。与此同时，随着节前农户变现需求持续 释放，中下游企业已建立安全库存，行情基本尘埃落定。玉米期现货价格短期或维持窄幅震荡，节后气 温回暖可能加速地趴粮集中销售，届时供应压力或有所增加。 （文章来源：期货日报） 近两年，由于玉米价格波动较大，渠道商存粮意愿偏弱，叠加年度结转库存持续偏低，港口库存长期处 于低位。数据显示，截至1月底，北港玉米库存为173.2万吨，虽较年初增加20万吨，但同比大幅减少约 267万吨；蛇口港玉米库存为58.2万吨，同比减少约83万吨；谷物库存为139.2万吨，同比减 ...

关注节后企业检修力度 一方面，国内产能扩张周期已步入尾声，2026年新增产能有限；另一方面，房地产行业有望逐步筑底改 善，PVC内需不必过度悲观。操作上，建议中长线以逢低做多思路为主。 进入2026年以来，PVC价格大幅波动，呈震荡上行趋势。二季度可能取消PVC出口增值税退税的消息， 一度引发盘面短期大幅走低，但市场迅速消化该预期，认为一季度仍有望出现"抢出口"行情。此后，在 地缘冲突、美国寒潮天气等多重利好因素推动下，化工板块整体走强，PVC价格再度突破5000元/吨关 口。 春节前上游企业预售进度加快，部分工厂2月至3月中旬订单已满，有效缓解了厂库压力。春节假期期 间，上下游企业开工"一开一停"，整体库存仍将进一步累积。后续需重点关注节后春季检修、下游需求 启动后的去库节奏。 年初以来，电石价格明显反弹，累计上调约225元/吨。而乙烯价格持续走低，导致PVC电石法单装置亏 损幅度依然偏大。受液碱价格持续低迷影响，氯碱一体化企业盈利状况不容乐观，山东地区氯碱生产毛 利已跌至盈亏平衡线，这将为PVC提供更强的成本支撑。 综合来看，尽管当前PVC存量供应仍处高位，但2026年国内产能扩张周期已步入尾声，新增产能 ...