Market Performance - On October 10, US stock indices collectively declined, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite experiencing their largest single-day drops since April [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 878.82 points, closing at 45479.60 points, a drop of 1.90%; the S&P 500 dropped 182.60 points to 6552.51 points, a decline of 2.71%; and the Nasdaq Composite fell 820.20 points to 22204.43 points, a decrease of 3.56% [2] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks saw widespread declines, with Nvidia dropping 4.89%, resulting in a market value loss of $228.7 billion (approximately 1.63 trillion RMB) [2] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted by 6.32%, with notable declines in Circle (over 11%), Arm (over 9%), AMD, Qualcomm, and Coinbase (over 7%) [2] - Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, falling from $122,000 to a low of $101,500, marking a maximum decline of 17% [2] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 3.32%, with NIO down over 10%, Xpeng down over 8%, and iQIYI down over 7% [3] - Other notable declines included Baidu and Tencent Music (over 6%), Li Auto and Alibaba (over 5%), and JD.com (over 3%) [3] Economic Context - The US government shutdown continues, affecting hundreds of thousands of federal employees and delaying key economic data releases, including the JOLTS report and CPI data [3] - The uncertainty surrounding government operations has heightened market fears [3] Valuation Concerns - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has warned about the high valuations in the US stock market, with the S&P 500's expected price-to-earnings ratio near its highest level since 2021 [4] - The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) reached a new high since the end of 2021, indicating elevated valuations [4] - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon noted a significant increase in the risk of a major market correction over the next 6 months to 2 years, citing various uncertainties including geopolitical tensions and fiscal policies [4]

Group 1: Palm Oil - Indonesia's Energy Minister announced a mandatory B50 biodiesel policy to be implemented by 2026, leading to expectations of reduced palm oil exports from Indonesia [1] - MPOA data indicates a 2.35% decrease in Malaysia's palm oil production for September 1-30, with market surveys suggesting a potential decline in palm oil inventory for the first time in seven months due to increased exports and decreased production [1] - Concerns exist regarding India's potential increase in vegetable oil import tariffs, and domestic demand is under pressure following the end of the dual festival stocking period [1] Group 2: Gold - Concerns about a potential U.S. federal government shutdown have increased demand for safe-haven assets, with the World Gold Council reporting a 12% year-on-year increase in global central bank gold purchases in Q3 [1] - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes indicated a consensus on the necessity of another interest rate cut this year, putting pressure on the U.S. dollar [1] - Factors to watch include changes in inflation statements, adjustments to the balance sheet plan, and developments in geopolitical conflicts [1] Group 3: Copper - Global copper supply is tightening, exacerbated by production cuts at Chile's Escondida copper mine, with LME copper inventory dropping below 150,000 tons, the lowest level since 2005 [1] - Traditional sectors are experiencing weak demand, which may suppress downstream replenishment intentions due to high copper prices [1] - Key events to monitor include labor negotiations at Chile's Antofagasta copper mine and the resumption progress at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine [1] Group 4: Live Pigs - The inventory of breeding sows remains high, leading to sufficient supply of market pigs, while post-festival demand recovery has not met expectations [1] - National breeding sow inventory is being gradually reduced, with plans to decrease by 1 million heads within six months [1] - Events to watch include policy intervention signals, slaughter rhythm and weight, and the impact of weather changes on transportation and consumption demand [1] Group 5: Shipping - A ceasefire agreement in Gaza has been confirmed, and global fleet capacity is expected to grow by 6.3% by 2025, creating significant pressure from new ship deliveries [1] - The period from late Q3 to early Q4 is traditionally a low season, with spot rates continuing to decline [1] - Risks include potential seasonal demand for Christmas stocking, which may lead to a temporary increase in cargo volume, and ongoing threats from Houthi forces in Yemen [1] Group 6: Coking Coal - Weekly inventory of coking coal has decreased by 132, reaching 36.324 million tons, with recent mining accidents raising concerns about production capacity [2] - The long-term contract price for Mongolian coal has increased by $3.8 per ton in Q4, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards traditional peak season demand [2] - Key events to monitor include the maintenance of high iron water production capacity and the fulfillment of steel demand [2] Group 7: Industrial Silicon - The southwestern region is approaching a dry season, with expectations of rising electricity prices pushing production costs higher [2] - Institutions forecast a 5.95% month-on-month increase in October's polysilicon output to 142,500 tons, with a 3.7% increase in operating rates to 50.05% [2] - Events to watch include the progress of polysilicon storage plans and discussions on revising energy consumption standards for industrial silicon [2]

Market Overview - The US dollar index has continued to strengthen, breaking the 99 mark and reaching a two-month high, supported by political uncertainty and safe-haven demand [1] - Gold prices have surged, reaching nearly 4060 USD/ounce, driven by interest rate cut expectations and safe-haven sentiment [1] - Oil prices have experienced volatility, initially rising but then declining due to increased inventory and easing geopolitical tensions [1] - US stock market showed mixed performance, with technology stocks initially leading but later facing profit-taking and increased risk aversion [1] Investment Bank Insights - Citigroup raised its three-month gold price forecast from 3800 USD/ounce to 4000 USD [4] - Goldman Sachs increased its December 2026 gold price forecast from 4300 USD/ounce to 4900 USD, citing strong ETF inflows and central bank purchases [4] - Morgan Stanley projected gold prices could reach around 4200 USD, with a potential high of 6000 USD by the end of 2029, based on fundamental support factors [4] Major Events - The US government has been in a shutdown for over a week due to a stalemate between parties, affecting approximately 2 million government employees and causing economic disruptions [5] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is hindered by delayed employment and inflation data due to the government shutdown, impacting the release of critical economic reports [6] - A ceasefire agreement has been reached between Israel and Hamas, marking a significant step towards peace in the Middle East [7] - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes revealed significant internal divisions regarding the interest rate cut path, with some officials advocating for further cuts while others expressed caution [8][9] Trade and Tariff Developments - The US Department of Commerce announced export controls on rare earth materials and related technologies, effective November 8, 2025, to maintain national security [11] - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on medium and heavy trucks starting November 1, 2025, while also deciding against tariffs on foreign generic drugs [12] - The World Trade Organization significantly downgraded its global goods trade growth forecast for 2026 from 1.8% to 0.5%, citing weak economic recovery and US tariff policies as contributing factors [20]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports interest rate cuts but emphasizes the need for caution due to conflicting economic signals [2][3] Economic Signals - The U.S. labor market appears to be losing jobs, indicating a potential broader economic slowdown [3] - Despite concerns in the labor market, GDP growth remains strong, and inflation is still significantly above the Fed's 2% target [3] Interest Rate Policy - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) approved a 25 basis point rate cut in September, marking the first cut since December 2024, with potential for two more cuts by year-end [3] - Waller expresses satisfaction with the current pace of rate cuts but does not advocate for more aggressive actions [3][4] Leadership Considerations - Waller is reportedly one of the final candidates to succeed Fed Chair Powell, whose term ends in May 2026 [3] - Discussions with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin focused on policy rather than political considerations, highlighting Waller's serious economic approach [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has narrowed down the list of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair from 11 to 5, with a potential nomination as early as January, although it may not necessarily be for the Chair position [1] Candidate Selection Process - The remaining candidates include current Fed officials Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles and Governor Christopher Waller, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, and BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income Rick Rieder [1] - The Treasury plans to conduct another round of interviews with these five candidates in the coming weeks and months, led by Mnuchin, along with two senior Treasury officials and two senior White House officials [1] - The interview process may extend beyond Thanksgiving due to Mnuchin's commitments to the World Bank/IMF meetings and a subsequent trip to Asia with President Trump [1] Importance of the Nomination - The new Fed Chair will be crucial as the current Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May, but he still has two years left on his Board seat [1] - The seat previously held by former Fed Governor Kugar is currently occupied by Milan, which will end in January, allowing the new Chair to be nominated to a full 14-year term [1] Selection Criteria - Mnuchin is looking for a candidate who is open to new ideas regarding the Fed's operations and monetary policy, with experience in economics, monetary policy, bank regulation, and management [2] Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Mnuchin has recently criticized the Fed, calling for a review of its policies, structure, and mission, indicating a preference for a candidate willing to reduce the Fed's size and limit the use of certain tools, particularly quantitative easing [3] - Currently, no candidate is in the lead, but Rieder has made a strong impression on Mnuchin, being a well-known figure on Wall Street with extensive analysis of fixed income markets and the Fed [3] - Rieder is noted as the only candidate among the five who has never worked at the Fed, which could be seen as a positive factor [3]

Group 1: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Citigroup economists expect a cooling in core CPI for September, projecting a rise of 0.28%, down from 0.35% in August, with housing inflation easing overall service inflation [1] - Barclays highlights that the rise in gold prices reflects increasing market distrust in the existing fiscal and monetary order, with major economies' debt exceeding 100% of GDP and a lack of political will for fiscal consolidation [1] - Dutch International Group anticipates a continued bull market for gold, forecasting an average price of $4,000 per ounce in Q4, driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical risks [1] Group 2: Bond Market and Eurozone Stability - Dutch International Group reports that the low volatility environment in the Eurozone makes current bond yield spreads highly attractive, with the 10-year French and Italian bond spreads tightening to 82 basis points [2] - The political crisis in France serves as a warning for Europe, with ongoing challenges in managing rising government debt and the need for structural reforms [2] - Mitsubishi UFJ analysts suggest that if France avoids early elections, the euro may regain an upward trend against the dollar [2] Group 3: Currency and Interest Rate Predictions - Dutch International Group indicates that the yen is becoming the preferred funding currency for carry trades, as expectations for low interest rates persist [4] - Capital Economics forecasts that the USD/JPY exchange rate will end at 150 by the end of 2025, with a potential rebound for the yen expected once the Bank of Japan resumes rate hikes [4] - Mizuho Securities maintains that the Bank of Japan will adopt a hawkish stance in the short term, despite reduced urgency for rate hikes [4] Group 4: Gold Market Projections - China International Capital Corporation predicts that gold prices could exceed $4,500 per ounce in Q1 of next year, driven by rising expectations for Fed rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [5] - The report emphasizes that while short-term factors may fade, the long-term bullish fundamentals for gold remain intact [5] Group 5: Energy Storage and Lithium Battery Industry - CITIC Securities identifies that the energy storage sector is at a pivotal point, with significant cost reductions and policy support driving demand and market penetration [6] - The report highlights that the lithium battery supply chain is expected to improve significantly as energy storage demand accelerates [6] Group 6: Superhard Materials and Coal Sector - CITIC Securities notes that recent export controls on superhard materials may accelerate industry consolidation, leading to potential price increases in the long term [7] - The coal sector is projected to experience sustained excess returns due to balanced supply and demand dynamics, with potential price upside in the upcoming quarter [7] Group 7: AI Industry Developments - CITIC Securities observes that advancements in AI technology are exceeding expectations, with significant progress in commercialization and monetization [7] - The report emphasizes the growing importance of computing power in the AI industry, highlighting opportunities in related sectors such as optical modules and fiber optics [7]

Core Points - The Republican Party initially believed that repeated voting on the same bill would force the Democrats to yield, but after six failed votes, their resolve is being questioned as polls indicate they bear more responsibility for the deadlock [1] - President Trump has expressed an openness to healthcare negotiations, despite the ongoing government shutdown and the expiration of subsidies related to the Affordable Care Act [1][2] - The Senate Majority Leader and House Speaker acknowledge the stalemate but face increasing pressure to change their approach [1][2] Group 1 - The core issue of the deadlock revolves around the enhanced tax credits for the Affordable Care Act, which are set to expire at the end of the year, potentially increasing premiums for Americans not covered by employer plans [4] - The economic cost of the government shutdown is rising, affecting various sectors, including delayed economic data releases and staffing shortages in air traffic control [2][3] - There is skepticism about whether any healthcare policy details can be resolved quickly, especially given Republican opposition to providing any support for the Affordable Care Act [2][5] Group 2 - Some Republican lawmakers are showing willingness to negotiate on healthcare issues, particularly as millions of Americans face rising insurance premiums [5] - A potential bipartisan solution may emerge through a "small group" model in the Senate, which could allow for a face-saving resolution for both parties [5] - The timeline for negotiations remains uncertain, with questions about whether concessions on healthcare will need to be tied to any agreement to reopen the government [6]

Group 1 - Paul Krugman criticizes US Treasury Secretary Basant's $20 billion aid plan to Argentina, claiming it benefits hedge fund friends rather than serving US strategic interests [1] - Krugman highlights the urgency of saving wealthy investors, referencing Argentine President Milei, while millions of children suffer [1] - The aid has raised market concerns about its true purpose, which appears to protect wealthy investors' interests in Argentina [1][2] Group 2 - Krugman argues that taxpayer money is propping up the peso, allowing hedge funds to sell Argentine assets at inflated prices before the peso declines again [2] - The aid lacks a viable economic plan, with Krugman stating that no reasonable strategy can save Milei's failing economic policies even with the $20 billion loan [2] - The aid has faced criticism from US soybean farmers and Senator Elizabeth Warren, who argues that taxpayer dollars should be used to support American healthcare instead [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Komeito party's decision to exit the ruling coalition led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) marks a historic shift in Japanese politics, potentially complicating the path for newly elected LDP president Sanae Takaichi to become the next Prime Minister [1][3]. Group 1: Political Implications - Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito informed Takaichi of the party's decision to end a 26-year partnership, stating that Komeito will not support Takaichi's bid for Prime Minister in the upcoming parliamentary vote [3]. - The dissolution of the coalition will significantly impact Takaichi's chances of securing the Prime Minister position, as Komeito holds 45 seats in the National Diet, while the LDP has 296 out of 713 total seats [4]. - The loss of Komeito as an ally may lead to substantial political uncertainty for Takaichi, despite the possibility of winning the parliamentary vote due to the ongoing fragmentation of opposition parties [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of Komeito's exit, the USD/JPY exchange rate experienced a short-term drop of nearly 40 points, although it has since recovered [1]. - Takaichi's election as LDP president has reduced market expectations for a near-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, contributing to a rise in the stock market and a weakening of the yen [5]. - The exit of Komeito could disrupt the so-called "Takaichi trade," which has been driven by investor optimism regarding fiscal stimulus [5].

法国总理勒科尔尼的辞职表明，法国最近这次政府危机与以往不同，因为这次推翻政府的不是反对派， 而是政府的关键盟友。 从那时起，盟友们开始纷纷反对法国总统马克龙，这一趋势愈演愈烈。本周，马克龙的前总理们接二连 三地公开批评他处理国民议会政治僵局的方式，更是加速了这一趋势。 马克龙的选人并不容易。社会党要求一位左翼总理，但中间偏右派表示他们会反对，而极右派和极左派 则表示他们会试图推翻马克龙选定的人。为了解决这个问题，马克龙需要一位超脱政治纷争的人，同时 具备在法国充满敌意的国民议会中游刃有余的政治技巧。 他继续说道："我们不能让过去六个月的经历再拖18个月；那太长了。"在他看来，这场危机"不仅仅是 花絮和姿态与野心的表演，这场危机是国家危机。" 周二晚上，接力棒交给了伊丽莎白·博尔内（Elisabeth Borne）。作为2022年5月至2024年1月期间的法国 总理，她提出了可能解决当前危机并同时可能"瓦解"马克龙政治遗产的办法：建议暂停备受争议的养老 金改革。博尔内在围绕这项有争议的改革（将最低退休年龄从62岁提高到64岁）进行谈判和抗议的艰难 时期担任政府首脑。 尽管这项改革在几年前获得通过，但它仍然是法国 ...