Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has reached its 35th day, matching the longest shutdown during Trump's first term, with ongoing blame between Republicans and Democrats [1] - The shutdown has led to significant losses, including the first interruption of food assistance for low-income families and unpaid federal employees, causing economic decision-making to become blind due to lack of data [2] - The political polarization in Congress has resulted in this unprecedented shutdown, which is the 15th since 1981, with efforts to resolve the situation appearing minimal [3] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that if the shutdown continues for another week, the U.S. economy could lose $11 billion, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to gauge employment and economic conditions accurately [4] - Trump has focused on foreign affairs during the shutdown but has recently taken a hardline stance, insisting on the elimination of the Senate's 60-vote rule for lengthy debates [5] - Some moderate Democratic senators have shifted their stance to support reopening the government, while others insist on Republican concessions to reaffirm congressional funding authority against Trump's executive overreach [6]

特朗普淡化了美国与委内瑞拉爆发战争的可能性，但暗示马杜罗的总统任期已进入倒计时。 在接受哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）《60分钟》节目采访时，当被问及美国是否会对委内瑞拉动武，特朗 普回应称："我对此表示怀疑，应该不会。但他们一直对我们很不友好。" 过去两个月，美国军方在加勒比海地区集结了包括军舰、战斗机、轰炸机、海军陆战队、无人机和侦察 机在内的庞大军事力量，这是数十年来该地区规模最大的军事部署。 美国持续对加勒比海地区涉嫌走私毒品的船只发动袭击。特朗普政府称，这些行动是遏制毒品流入美国 的必要手段。 针对外界关于"美国行动旨在推翻长期对手马杜罗而非打击毒品"的质疑，特朗普予以否认，称其目标 是"多方面的"。 据CBS新闻（BBC美国新闻合作伙伴）报道，自9月初以来，美国在加勒比海和东太平洋地区的军事行 动已造成至少64人死亡。 特朗普在佛罗里达州海湖庄园（Mar-a-Lago）表示："每一艘被击落的船只都能减少2.5万份毒品流入， 拯救全美无数家庭。" 当被追问美国是否计划对委境内发动地面打击时，特朗普又拒绝排除这一可能性，称："我不会倾向于 说我会这么做……我不会告诉你我是否会对委内瑞拉采取行动。"他说，" ...

特斯拉董事长罗宾·登霍姆（Robyn Denholm）认为，这场投票对留住马斯克担任首席执行官至关重要。 而马斯克已公开威胁，若股东再次否决他的薪酬方案，他将离职。 去年，作为特斯拉前十大股东（持股1.1%）的挪威主权财富基金就曾投票反对马斯克当时那份规模达 560亿美元的薪酬方案——该方案曾是美国企业史上最大规模高管薪酬计划。尽管该560亿美元薪酬方案 在去年6月获得股东批准，但同年12月被特拉华州法院第二次驳回。 两大股东咨询机构——格拉斯·刘易斯（Glass Lewis）和机构股东服务公司（ISS）均建议投资者否决这 份最新的1万亿美元薪酬方案。该方案与特斯拉股价及运营绩效的高难度里程碑目标挂钩。 一批大型养老金基金也发布公开信反对该薪酬计划，称特斯拉董事会执着于留住首席执行官;的做法已 损害公司声誉，并导致高管薪酬过高。 特斯拉年度股东大会前，1.9万亿挪威主权财富基金公开反对马斯克1万亿薪酬方案。马斯克此前威胁方 案不通过就离职。 挪威规模达1.9万亿美元的主权财富基金，成为首家公开表态的主要投资者，明确反对特斯拉（TSLA） 首席执行官埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）新提出的1万亿美元薪酬方案。 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the dissatisfaction among voters regarding President Trump's handling of the economy and inflation, which presents an opportunity for the Democratic Party in upcoming elections [1][2][3] - Affordability has become a central issue for the Democratic Party in key elections in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City, as they aim to regain public trust and address economic concerns [1][2][3] - Polls indicate a significant shift in voter sentiment, with Democrats now perceived as more capable of managing the economy compared to Republicans, a change from previous years [3][4] Group 1: Election Context - The upcoming gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, along with the mayoral election in New York City, will test the Democratic Party's strategy focused on affordability [1][2] - Democratic candidates are emphasizing plans to reduce costs, such as Abigail Spanberger's "Affordable Virginia" initiative and Mikie Sherrill's proposal to freeze utility rates [1][2][5] - In New York City, mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani has proposed various affordability measures, including free childcare and rent stabilization [2] Group 2: Voter Sentiment and Polling - Recent polls show that dissatisfaction with Trump's economic management has led to a narrowing trust gap between Democrats and Republicans regarding economic issues [3][4] - A Gallup survey indicates that for the first time, Democrats are viewed as more capable of maintaining national prosperity, marking a significant shift from previous Republican advantages [3] - Despite this shift, some analysts caution that Democrats should not overinterpret these changes, as they may be more reflective of voter discontent with Trump than a strong endorsement of Democratic policies [3][4] Group 3: Internal Party Dynamics - The Democratic Party faces internal divisions on how to approach the affordability issue, balancing between progressive taxation and more centrist policies [6] - Polling experts suggest that the party needs to develop specific policy proposals that resonate with a broader audience while distancing itself from more leftist agendas [6] - The challenge lies in effectively communicating affordability as a key issue without alienating moderate voters [6]

Core Viewpoint - Investor Michael Burry has made significant bearish bets against Nvidia and Palantir, signaling concerns about a potential market bubble driven by AI hype [1][2][3] Group 1: Investment Positions - Scion Asset Management holds put options equivalent to 1 million shares of Nvidia, valued at approximately $186.6 million, and 5 million shares of Palantir, valued at about $912 million [2] - The recent filing indicates a strategic shift for Burry, as he did not hold positions in these companies in the previous quarter [3] Group 2: Market Context - Nvidia's stock has risen 54% this year, driven by surging demand for AI hardware, while Palantir's stock has skyrocketed 174% amid AI enthusiasm and increased defense spending [2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices have reached historical highs, intensifying discussions about whether the AI boom has inflated stock valuations into bubble territory [3] Group 3: Sentiment Analysis - Retail investor sentiment towards Nvidia has shifted from "extremely bullish" to "bullish," while sentiment for Palantir remains "extremely bullish" with increased discussion activity [3] Group 4: Other Holdings - Despite bearish positions on Nvidia and Palantir, Scion has taken bullish positions in Halliburton and Pfizer, and holds stocks in Lululemon, Bruker, Molina Healthcare, and SLM [4] - As of September 30, Scion's total investment positions have decreased from 15 to 8 [4]

瑞银（UBS）分析师表示，当前黄金市场的回调仅为暂时现象，金价仍有望达到每盎司4200美元；若地 缘政治或市场风险加剧，乐观情况下金价甚至可能冲高至每盎司4700美元。 "市场期待已久的回调已暂时平息，"瑞银在周一发布的研究报告中称，"除技术面因素外，我们未发现 此次抛售存在基本面支撑。" 这家瑞士银行业巨头指出，"价格动能减弱引发期货持仓量出现第二轮下滑"，但同时强调，黄金的潜在 需求依然强劲。 瑞银分析师还援引世界黄金协会（World Gold Council）《第三季度黄金需求趋势报告》称，该报告证 实"各国央行与个人投资者的购金需求均表现强劲且持续升温"。 他们在报告中写道："今年以来各国央行已购金634吨，虽低于去年同期速度，但第四季度购金量正逐步 回升，符合我们对2025年全年900-950吨购金量的预测。" 黄金ETF资金流入达222吨，金条与金币需求连续第四个季度超过300吨，这些数据均表明投资者对黄金 的兴趣已显著增强。瑞银指出，"珠宝需求也未如预期般疲软"。 "我们倾向于逢低买入黄金，"分析师表示，并补充称他们仍认为投资者对黄金的"配置比例偏低"。瑞银 建议，投资者应在投资组合中配置中等个 ...

加拿大皇家银行资本市场（RBC Capital Markets）的美国股票策略主管Lori Calvasina曾多次反驳美国股市已进入AI驱动泡沫的说法，但最近，她也有所 倒戈，只因一张图表让她感到紧张。 这张图表比较了标普500指数中市值最高的10只股票的权重与这些公司在总净利润中所占的份额。正如Calvasina指出的，根据RBC使用的数据，这些股票在 指数中的权重最近触及了超过44%的新高，这是至少自1990年以来的最高水平。然而，这些公司在所有指数成员公司总利润中所占的份额却并未完全跟 上。 可以肯定的是，这并非一个全新的趋势。Calvasina表示，至少从2021年起，标普500指数中最大公司的整体权重增长速度就一直快于其盈利份额的增长。 这主要是因为投资者愿意为更强劲的长期盈利增长预期支付溢价，尤其是在2022年底ChatGPT引爆AI投资热潮之后。 然而，在过去几个月中，这一差距扩大的速度有所加剧。根据最新可用数据，截至10月底，标普500指数中最大的10家公司占指数内所有公司总净利润的 34.3%。这使得这些公司的权重与其利润份额之间的差距扩大到9.9个百分点。这与2000年3月时10.3个百 ...

Core Points - The U.S. Department of Commerce and the Department of Defense have committed to providing financial support and potential equity investment to Vulcan Elements, a domestic rare earth magnet manufacturer [1] - Vulcan Elements will receive $50 million from the CHIPS Act to purchase equipment for producing permanent magnets, which are essential for fighter jets, wind turbines, and other critical products [1] - The company will also secure a direct loan of $620 million from the Department of Defense and $550 million in private capital to build a magnet factory with an annual production capacity of 10,000 tons [1] - The partnership with ReElement Technologies will involve an $80 million direct loan for expanding recycling and processing capabilities, with matching private capital [1] - This initiative is part of a broader effort by the U.S. federal government to invest directly in the permanent magnet supply chain, aiming to reduce dependence on foreign sources [1] Financial Arrangements - The funding from the CHIPS Act is described as a non-binding preliminary agreement, leaving the specifics of the arrangements unclear [2] - The Department of Defense confirmed that the conditional loans are sourced from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which authorizes $100 billion in loans for critical mineral production and related projects [2] Strategic Implications - The agreements aim to support the development of advanced rare earth element separation, metallization, and magnet manufacturing capabilities within the U.S. [3] - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce has previously converted part of the CHIPS Act funding into equity investments in struggling domestic chip manufacturers, indicating a potential similar approach with Vulcan Elements [3] - The Department of Defense will also receive warrants for future equity purchases in Vulcan Elements and ReElement Technologies, although the specific value of these warrants has not been disclosed [3]

周二，澳洲联储继续维持其关键利率不变，但同时警告经济中存在更强的通胀压力，并重申未来的行动将以新出炉的数据为指导。 澳洲联储周二决定将现金利率维持在3.6%不变。此前，澳大利亚上季度消费者价格指数涨幅超出预期，而劳动力市场依旧紧张。根据声明，这一决定由九 人组成的委员会一致通过。行长布洛克将在晚些时候举行新闻发布会。 委员会在声明中表示："最近的通胀数据表明，经济中可能仍然存在一定的通胀压力。鉴于私人需求正在复苏，劳动力市场状况似乎仍有些紧张，委员会认 为在本次会议上将现金利率维持在当前水平是合适的。" 决议公布后，澳元小幅走低，而对政策敏感的三年期政府债券收益率则跌至3.61%。 澳洲联储周二还发布了季度宏观经济预测，显示核心通胀预计将在2026年中期前攀升至2-3%目标区间的上限以上，而劳动力市场可能保持大致稳定。最新 的预测是基于明年第二季度将有一次降息的假设。 澳洲联储表示，强于预期的第三季度CPI报告"表明潜在的通胀压力可能比我们之前想象的要大一些"，并指出，近期的一系列数据增加了这样一种可能性， 即"经济中的产能压力比我们之前评估的要稍大"。 澳洲联储在双重使命下运作，其目标是在实现可持续的充分就 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to maintain the cash rate at 3.60%, citing recent inflation increases and uncertain economic prospects as key factors [1][2]. Inflation Trends - Recent inflation has risen, with core inflation increasing from 2.7% to 3.0% in the September quarter, exceeding previous expectations [3] - Overall inflation rose to 3.2% in the September quarter, influenced by the end of electricity subsidies in several states [3] - The RBA anticipates core inflation to rise above 3% in the coming quarters, before declining to 2.6% by 2027 [3] Domestic Economic Activity - Domestic economic activity is recovering, with private demand showing continued strength and a robust real estate market [4] - Employment growth has slowed, with the unemployment rate increasing from 4.3% in August to 4.5% in September, although job vacancies remain high [4] - There are uncertainties regarding the sustainability of private demand recovery and its potential impact on labor demand and inflation [4] Global Economic Context - Global economic uncertainties remain high, but short-term growth forecasts have been revised upwards by many institutions [5] - Trade policies and geopolitical risks continue to pose threats to global economic stability, potentially suppressing demand growth [5] Monetary Policy Outlook - The RBA emphasizes the importance of maintaining price stability and full employment, considering the current inflation pressures and labor market conditions [6] - The committee will closely monitor data and evolving risks to guide future decisions, focusing on global economic developments and domestic demand trends [7]