OpenAI首席执行官山姆·奥尔特曼（Sam Altman）当地时间周日在社交平台X上分享了一张截图，似乎展示了备受期待的GPT-5。 奥尔特曼在X上发布了一条看似随意的留言，称赞科幻动画剧《Pantheon》。这部剧在科技圈中颇具人气，主题涉及通用人工智能等议题。 一名X用户随后询问GPT-5是否也会推荐这部剧。奥尔特曼回复了一张截图，并写道："结果是会的！" 截图显示，奥尔特曼向GPT-5提问："关于AI，最发人深省的电视节目是什么？"GPT回答说： 如果你正在寻找最发人深省的人工智能题材电视剧，这里有一份精心挑选的片单——每一部都以独特视角探讨智能、意识与人类—AI的关系： 1. 《Pantheon》（AMC+ / Netflix） 这是一颗在科技圈中备受推崇的隐藏宝石。《Pantheon》深入探讨了意识上传、人工通用智能，以及以数字化意识形态生活所带来的伦理影响。 它在硅谷广受认可，被视为进行AGI、身份认同与社会影响相关思想实验的首选剧集。该剧在烂番茄网站的影评人评分为100%，其叙事风格思 想性强、情感充沛、哲理意味浓厚。 2. 《Devs》（FX on Hulu） 由《机械姬》（Ex Machi ...

Economic Outlook - The recent employment report indicates that the U.S. economy is heading towards a recession, with various economic indicators signaling a downturn [1] - Consumer spending is stagnating, construction and manufacturing sectors are contracting, and employment is expected to decline [1][2] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in responding to rising inflation, which complicates potential interventions [1] Employment Data - Non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 last month, significantly below the expected 110,000, with previous months' data also revised downwards [2] - The average monthly job growth over the past three months is only 35,000, indicating a slowdown in employment growth [2] - Despite a stable unemployment rate around 4% to 4.2%, the labor force participation rate is declining due to reduced foreign-born labor [3] Labor Market Dynamics - The reduction in foreign-born labor by 1.2 million over the past six months is attributed to restrictive immigration policies, leading to a stagnation in labor supply [3] - There is a hiring freeze across the economy, particularly affecting new graduates, which suggests a significant drop in the "neutral job growth" needed to maintain stable unemployment [3] - Morgan Stanley economists have raised alarms about potential recession, noting that private sector job growth has averaged only 52,000 per month over the past three months [3][4] Economic Indicators - The second quarter GDP showed unexpected growth, but domestic final demand indicators suggest a slowdown [2] - Core inflation accelerated to 2.8%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, while consumer spending growth in June fell short of expectations [2] - The Atlanta Fed's GDP tracking model predicts a slowdown in economic growth from 3% in the second quarter to 2.1% in the third quarter [2]

《卫报》美国版的作家兼主持人亚当·加巴特（Adam Gabbatt）近期援引专家的言论指出，现任总统特 朗普日益怪异的行为再次令人怀疑其精神敏锐度。全文报道如下。 一年多来，79岁的特朗普在竞选活动、采访、即兴发言和新闻发布会上都表现出怪异行为。他频繁跑 题，包括在本月的内阁会议上花15分钟谈论装修，还似乎记错了关于其政府和个人生活的简单事实。 在拜登任总统期间，其精神敏锐度曾受到密集猜测——其中也包括来自特朗普的质疑。2024年6月，拜 登在辩论中表现糟糕，频繁难以集中思路，对其健康状况的审视最终导致他放弃连任。 然而，尽管特朗普在第二任期内持续出现迷糊和反常行为，且在最近的英国之行中充分暴露，但他却在 很大程度上避开了同样的审视。 怪异的公开表现 上周末，特朗普在与欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩（Ursula von der Leyen）会面时，突然从移民话 题转而说道："我还要对欧洲说一件事：我们——我们不会允许在美国建风车。它们在毁了我们，毁了 美丽的风景。" 特朗普接着毫无征兆地就风车滔滔不绝讲了两分钟，毫无根据地声称风车让鲸鱼"发疯"，风能"杀死鸟 类"（事实上，涡轮机杀死的鸟类比例远低于家猫和 ...

过去一周，美元指数表现强劲，但上周五疲软的非农数据令其涨幅大幅收窄。该指数在上半年暴跌近 11%，创下自1970年代初创立以来的最差上半年纪录。 那么美元作为领先指标的表现如何？赫伯特进一步观察美元年度变化是否与EPS后续增长率相关，但得出 了类似结论。下图显示，自1970年代以来，美元过去12个月的变化与标普500 EPS未来12个月增长率的相 关性并不稳定。 回顾历史，弱势美元被视为对美国股市有利——毕竟在近期美元贬值期间，标普500指数总回报率达 6.2%。但美国股市也曾在美元异常强劲的年份表现惊人。因此，美元波动或许对以美元计价的投资者无关 紧要。 然而，若美联储如特朗普政府所愿大幅降息，导致美元急剧贬值，股市反弹可能出现负面反应。这种情况 曾在1987年10月发生过。 为深入分析，《市场观察》专栏作家马克·赫伯特（Mark Hulbert）首先评估了美元指数作为标普500每股收 益（EPS）同步指标和领先指标的历史表现。 在研究美元作为同步指标的潜力时，赫伯特几乎一无所获。自1973年以来，美元指数的年度波动仅能解释 或预测标普500指数EPS同期波动的1%（以R平方值衡量）。这种近乎零的相关性源于 ...

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, marking a strategic shift from defending oil prices to regaining market share [2][5] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decisions - The agreement reached in the recent meeting allows for a gradual exit from the 2.2 million barrels per day reduction plan initiated in 2023 [2] - OPEC+ retains the option to reassess the 1.66 million barrels per day of suspended production, depending on market conditions [2][7] - The upcoming meeting on September 7 will further evaluate the production strategy [2] Group 2: Market Implications - The increase in production is seen as a response to geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand, providing relief to consumers but raising concerns about potential oversupply [2][5] - Analysts warn that the market may face significant oversupply by the end of the year due to increased production and slowing global economic growth [5][10] - Despite the increase, oil prices have shown resilience, recovering from earlier lows, partly due to OPEC+ not fully meeting its production commitments [6][11] Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The production increase coincides with U.S. President Trump's pressure on OPEC+ leaders, particularly Russia, regarding oil prices amid the Ukraine conflict [3][12] - The dynamics between Saudi Arabia and Russia remain crucial, as both countries have historically led OPEC+ [3] Group 4: Future Considerations - The fate of the remaining 1.66 million barrels per day reduction remains uncertain, with OPEC+ officials indicating that all options are on the table, including potential pauses or reversals of recent production increases [7][8] - Market analysts predict that OPEC+ may need to consider further production cuts in the coming months if oversupply issues persist [9][11]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent nuclear threats made by former President Trump in response to provocative statements from Russian official Dmitry Medvedev, highlighting the tension between the U.S. and Russia [1][2] - Trump's order to redeploy two U.S. nuclear submarines is seen as a reaction to Medvedev's comments, although the actual impact on U.S. nuclear capabilities is minimal given the existing presence of numerous submarines armed with nuclear warheads [2] - The timing of these actions is crucial, as Trump's Middle East envoy is set to engage with Russian leadership regarding the Ukraine peace agreement, while the Kremlin remains steadfast in its military objectives [3] Group 2 - The article suggests that Trump's nuclear rhetoric may serve as a distraction from domestic political issues, potentially overshadowing scandals and other concerns [3] - Despite the heightened nuclear rhetoric, the overall relationship between Washington and Moscow is tense but not at a level of nuclear confrontation [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. is likely to maintain the recently imposed tariffs on multiple countries, including a 35% tariff on most Canadian goods, 50% on Brazil, 25% on India, and 39% on Switzerland, as stated by U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer [1] - The Swiss government is willing to modify its concessions in response to the high tariffs, with concerns that the 39% tariff could lead to an economic recession in Switzerland [1][2] - The Swiss economy is heavily export-oriented, and the imposition of tariffs could significantly impact its economic output, potentially reducing GDP by over 1% if long-term export disruptions occur [2] Group 2 - The Swiss government is exploring options to address the trade deficit with the U.S., which reached 38.5 billion Swiss francs (approximately 48 billion USD) last year, including increasing investments in the U.S. and purchasing U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) [2] - The Swiss stock market is expected to be impacted by the tariff news, with predictions of a potential interest rate cut by the Swiss National Bank in September due to weakened economic growth and increased deflationary pressures [3]

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 特朗普不满就业数据，下令解雇劳工统计局局长 特朗普下令部署两艘核潜艇至俄附近海域 美国7月非农大爆冷，前两个月数据大幅下修 美联储二把手：对9月降息持开放态度 美联储理事库格勒辞职，美联储9月降息押注升温 欧佩克+同意9月继续大幅增产 移动电源认证新规8月15日起实施 8月8日起新发国债等利息收入恢复征收增值税 央行：加大"两重""两新"等重点领域的融资支持力度 市场盘点 上周五，由于疲软的非农数据推动降息预期急剧升温，美元指数重挫，下破99整数关口，最终收跌1.363%，报98.67，创4个多月来最大单日跌幅。美债收益 率集体跳水，基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.225%，2年期美债收益率收报3.698%。 现货黄金在非农数据公布后直线拉升，大涨逾70美元，最终收涨2.21%，收报3362.88美元/盎司，刷新一周高点，并抹去周内全部跌幅；现货白银走势相 似，但涨幅略逊，最终收涨0.76%，报37.05美元/盎司。 A股整体缩量，三大股指早盘窄幅震荡，午后集体 ...

市场情绪降温，双焦期货领跌内盘，焦炭、焦煤主力合约均跌超2%。前期涨幅巨大的双焦期货面临市 场炒作情绪的快速降温，当前维持低位震荡调整。现货方面，山西市场（介休）主流价格报价1200元/ 吨，较上个交易日+30元/吨；蒙5#主焦原煤自提价932元/吨，较上个交易日-68元/吨。 7月30日重磅会议中表示要依法依规治理企业无序竞争，推进重点行业产能治理。与7月1日会议的表述 相比，措辞上去掉了"低价"，将之前的"推动落后产能有序退出"改成"推进重点行业产能治理"，市场对 反内卷政策预期有所降温，空头力量趁势加压。 再来看看基本面，供应方面，煤矿产能核查仍在继续，本周国内炼焦煤总库存在下降，供应压力在减 弱。据Mysteel，目前长治地区新增停产煤矿4座，分别是因为月度生产任务完成、瓦斯超标、搬家倒面 以及安全检修，合计核定产能690万吨，其余部分煤矿也有不同程度减产。截至8月1日当周，国内炼焦 煤总库存为2245.01万吨，环比下降0.35%，同比增加7.01%。需求方面，本周新增2座高炉复产，2座高 炉检修，铁水产量环比下降1.52万吨至240.71万吨，终端需求有所减弱，但是考虑到焦化利润正在修 复，焦化企 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 消息人士透露，欧佩克+预计将在周日批准新一轮的增产计划，该集团仍在就9月份的具体增产规模进 行讨论。 欧佩克+目前供应全球约一半的原油，近年来一直通过减产来支撑油市，但今年起转变策略，开始增产 以争夺市场份额，同时回应美国总统特朗普"要求欧佩克增产、压低汽油价格"的呼声。 三位消息人士表示，欧佩克+中有八个成员国可能在9月将日均产量增加54.8万桶；而另一位消息人士 称，关于具体增产幅度的讨论仍在进行，最终增幅可能会低于这个数字。 如果欧佩克+在本周末如交易员预期的那样，同意大幅增产石油，该组织将立即面临又一个战略十字路 口。 在每桶约71美元的水平，油价远低于国际货币基金组织（IMF）所说的沙特为支付其"2030愿景"经济战 略的庞大支出承诺所需的水平。 包括摩根大通和高盛集团在内的许多石油预测师表示，由于美国供应充裕，石油期货价格今年将跌向60 美元，这将进一步侵蚀欧佩克+成员国的石油收入。 原油交易员们将密切关注周日的会议，寻找任何关于该组织将如何处理那166万桶/日产量的迹象，包括 是否会安排一次后续会议来评估下一步措施。 如果欧佩克+不就其未 ...