Group 1 - The second quarter earnings reports are being released, with approximately 30% of S&P 500 companies (151 companies) expected to report this week, including 9 out of 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average components [2] - Jefferies highlighted overlooked stocks that may outperform the market, indicating potential for significant stock price movements due to upcoming earnings reports and data disclosures [2] - Spotify (SPOT.N) is a key focus for Jefferies, with a target price of $845, suggesting a 25% upside from the recent closing price, driven by healthy revenue growth despite a temporary slowdown in gross margin due to increased investment in video podcasting [2] Group 2 - Boeing (BA.N) is expected to report earnings on Tuesday, with Jefferies projecting a 13% upside for the stock, supported by a forecast of delivering 413 737 aircraft in 2025, which could positively impact free cash flow [2] - Clorox (CLX.N) is another stock favored by Jefferies, with a target price of $145, indicating about a 10% upside, as the company is expected to exceed expectations in its upcoming fourth-quarter earnings report [3] - Jefferies also expressed optimism for LPL Financial and Fair Isaac ahead of their earnings reports [3]

目前，加沙的人道主义危机比以往任何时候都更加严重，谈判陷入僵局，美国和以色列在国际上日益孤 立。 特朗普曾以结束战争和带回人质作为竞选承诺。随着战事拖延，巴勒斯坦人挨饿的画面传遍全球，特朗 普对以色列总理内塔尼亚胡的"极限主义"战争策略的支持，已在其"让美国再次伟大"（MAGA）的基本 盘中引发裂痕。 在哈马斯不接受最新的停火条款，以及以色列为表抗议而撤回其谈判代表之后，停火谈判的破裂可能成 为本届政府政策的一个转折点。 特朗普上周五暗示，以色列是时候进一步升级战争，以"除掉"哈马斯并"完成任务"。 以色列官员不确定这究竟是特朗普的谈判策略，还是其路线的真正改变——即为内塔尼亚胡使用更极端 的军事措施开"绿灯"。 特朗普上周五在苏格兰降落后告诉记者，"哈马斯发生的事情太可怕了。到处牵制所有人。我们等着瞧 会发生什么。我们等着看以色列会对此有何回应。但时机差不多到了。" 上任六个月以来，美国总统特朗普在结束加沙战争方面毫无进展。 据消息人士称，美国国务卿鲁比奥上周五在国务院与人质家属会面时多次表示，政府需要"反思"其在加 沙的战略，并"向总统提出新的选项"。 在过去六个月里，特朗普几乎给了内塔尼亚胡在加沙为所欲 ...

Core Points - The framework agreement between the U.S. and the EU includes a commitment from the EU to significantly increase energy imports from the U.S., aiming for $250 billion annually over three years, which is deemed unrealistic [1][6] - The EU's current energy imports from the U.S. are far below the target, with 2024 figures showing a total value of approximately $645.5 billion, only 26% of the target [3][6] - The U.S. energy exports in 2024, including crude oil, LNG, and metallurgical coal, total approximately $1,658 billion, indicating that even if the EU purchased all U.S. energy, it would still fall short of the $250 billion goal [4][5][6] Group 1 - The agreement imposes a 15% tariff on EU goods imported to the U.S. while emphasizing the EU's commitment to increase energy imports from the U.S. [1] - The EU imported 5.73 million barrels of crude oil from the U.S. in 2024, valued at about $40.1 billion, and 8.268 million tons of LNG, costing approximately $512.6 billion [3] - The total value of U.S. energy exports to the EU in 2024, including metallurgical coal, is significantly lower than the target, raising questions about the feasibility of the agreement [6] Group 2 - The U.S. exported 1.45 billion barrels of crude oil in 2024, valued at $101.5 billion, and 8.705 million tons of LNG, valued at approximately $540 billion [4] - The agreement may include nuclear fuel and refined products, but even with these additions, the total value remains insufficient to meet the $250 billion target [6] - The unrealistic nature of the $250 billion commitment raises concerns about the motivations behind the agreement and the potential for future negotiations [7]

Group 1 - The evolving tariff situation continues to create both pressure and opportunities for the market [2][5] - The most likely economic scenario is slow growth with persistent inflation, with a 40% probability assigned to this outcome [2] - The potential for a mild recession increases if tariffs are raised on key trading partners, as they account for nearly half of U.S. goods imports [5] Group 2 - Fixed income markets are expected to see rising U.S. Treasury prices due to anticipated dovish shifts from the Federal Reserve [3] - The stock market may experience a differentiated impact, with the S&P 500 likely to continue its upward trend despite growth slowdowns, driven by a weaker dollar and tax incentives for key sectors [3] - Industries sensitive to trade policies will face varying impacts, with industrial goods benefiting from domestic investment while consumer goods and retail sectors may struggle due to rising import costs [3][5]

日本央行周四预计将维持利率不变，但在美日上周达成贸易协议后，该央行可能对经济前景给出不那么 悲观的评估，暗示今年晚些时候可能重启加息。 随着上周日美国与欧盟达成协议，全球贸易紧张局势进一步缓解，这让日本央行政策制定者对该国出口 导向型经济的前景更感宽慰。 但分析师也表示，日本央行可能会警告，美国关税对企业活动的影响仍存在不确定性，预计今年晚些时 候出口所受冲击将加剧。 他们表示，委员会还可能会维持一些原有观点，包括通胀将在截至2027财年的三年预测期后半段持续达 到2%的目标。 在5月1日发布的当前预测中，日本央行预计2025财年核心消费者通胀率将达到2.2%，2026财年放缓至 1.7%，2027财年为1.9%。 根据日本上周与特朗普达成的贸易协议，美国降低了对日本主力产品（包括汽车）的进口关税，这缓解 了依赖出口的日本经济的压力，也为日本央行进一步加息扫清了一个关键障碍。 市场正聚焦日本央行的季度展望报告，以及行长植田和男（Kazuo Ueda）会后的新闻发布会，以寻找 下次加息时机的线索。 路透社在美日贸易协议公布前进行的调查显示，多数经济学家预计日本央行将在年底前再次加息。 消息人士表示，在季度报告中 ...

美国总统特朗普广泛的关税权力及近期达成的贸易协议，可能很快会遭遇法律阻力。 一家联邦上诉法院定于本周就一起备受关注的诉讼举行口头辩论，该案质疑特朗普所谓的关税权力—— 只要他认为有必要应对国家紧急状态，就能随时对任何国家征收任何水平的关税。 特朗普政府表示，这种广泛的关税权力源自《国际紧急经济权力法》（International Emergency Economic Powers Act，简称IEEPA）。 特朗普实施的大部分重要关税——包括针对加拿大和墨西哥的芬太尼相关关税，以及4月初首次公布的 全球对等关税——都基于他对该法律的援引。 美国国际贸易法院5月底推翻了这些关税，裁定特朗普超越了IEEPA赋予的权限。但美国联邦巡回上诉 法院迅速暂停了该判决，允许这些关税在特朗普的法律挑战推进期间继续生效。 这起名为"V.O.S. Selections诉特朗普"的案件，是超过六起挑战特朗普使用紧急权力法的联邦诉讼中进展 最快的一起。 该案定于当地时间周四上午在联邦巡回上诉法院进行口头辩论。 "我认为这些关税面临风险，"盛德律师事务所（Sidley Austin）合伙人、全球贸易业务主管特德·墨菲 （Ted Mur ...

Group 1: Regulatory Warnings and Risks - Multiple financial management departments and industry self-regulatory organizations have issued risk warnings regarding scams disguised as "stablecoins," highlighting the need for consumers to verify the legitimacy of institutions and products through official channels [1] - Authorities in China have uncovered a Bitcoin money laundering case involving $20 million, emphasizing the necessity for enhanced regulatory systems in the context of digital asset tracking [1] Group 2: Stablecoins and Financial Stability - Li Lihui, former president of Bank of China, expressed concerns that the U.S. double deficit could impact the stability of stablecoins, which are tied to the dollar, and emphasized the importance of monitoring decentralized financial markets [2] Group 3: Bitcoin Market Trends - Bitcoin's price has surged by 250% since BlackRock submitted its spot ETF application, with reduced volatility attracting more investors and suggesting a potential shift in Bitcoin's market behavior [3] - Michael Saylor's company is planning to introduce a Bitcoin-backed financial instrument on Wall Street, which has already seen significant investor interest, indicating a new investment tool that could attract traditional finance [4] Group 4: Investor Sentiment on Cryptocurrencies - A Gallup survey revealed that only 14% of American adults own cryptocurrencies, with 64% considering them to be high-risk investments, reflecting a cautious attitude towards digital assets [5][8] - The survey also highlighted demographic disparities in cryptocurrency ownership, with younger males and high-income individuals more likely to invest, while older adults and low-income households remain largely absent from the market [6][8] Group 5: Emerging Opportunities in Virtual Assets - Futu Holdings plans to offer interest-earning investment services in cryptocurrencies and is set to launch tokenized currency funds in RMB, HKD, and USD, indicating a move towards compliant on-chain trading solutions [9] - Guotou Capital is closely monitoring opportunities in Hong Kong's virtual asset trading service market and plans to advance related work while considering business development and regulatory requirements [10]

Group 1 - The recent meme stock surge has created a dilemma for professional investors, who must decide whether to follow retail investors in chasing gains or view it as a warning signal for a market correction [1] - Stocks like Opendoor Technologies and Kohl's Corp. have seen significant price movements, although some have retraced gains, while broader indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have rebounded to historical highs [1][3] - There are signs that investors are abandoning restraint, with margin debt on the New York Stock Exchange surpassing previous highs from the tech bubble, indicating a record level of borrowing to invest in stocks [3] Group 2 - The S&P 500's expected price-to-earnings ratio is nearing 23 times, significantly above the ten-year average of approximately 18 times, suggesting that stocks may be overvalued [3][4] - Market fatigue is evident as the latest meme stock rally quickly lost momentum, and Bitcoin, a symbol of speculative fervor, has also retreated from its historical highs [3] - Comparisons are being drawn to the January 2021 meme stock event, where retail investors drove significant price increases, highlighting the similarities in current market behavior [5][6] Group 3 - Current macroeconomic conditions differ from 2021, with higher interest rates leading to expectations that the Federal Reserve may lower benchmark rates later this year, potentially providing further support for stock prices [6] - Despite concerns over increased tariffs from the Trump administration, trade agreements have generally yielded better outcomes than anticipated in early April, and inflation remains manageable with steady earnings growth [6] - Short-term corrections in the market could be seen as healthy, providing buying opportunities for investors, as any pullback may be viewed as a chance to acquire stocks at lower prices [8]

SHMET 网讯：美联储官员决心将利率维持在现有水平更长时间，尽管本周政策会议上日益激烈的辩论可能强化秋季降息的预期。美联储主席鲍威尔正 承受来自特朗普及其盟友要求降低借贷成本的重压，本周可能面临多名官员的异议——他们希望为逐渐放缓的劳动力市场提供支持。 但市场普遍预计，在7月30日结束的为期两天的会议上，这家美国央行将维持基准利率不变，因政策制定者仍在等待更多数据以揭示关税对消费者价格 的影响。 "尽管我们预计政策利率不会变化，但可以看到政策路径正处于转折点的迹象，"富国银行高级经济学家莎拉·豪斯（Sarah House）表示，"不过委员会多 数成员似乎尚未做好准备——我认为他们仍对关税可能引发的通胀保持警惕。" 美联储官员将于华盛顿时间周三下午2点（北京时间周四凌晨2点）发布会后声明，鲍威尔将在30分钟后举行新闻发布会。利率期货显示，投资者正押注 下次会议（9月）可能降息，市场观察人士将寻找任何支持这一观点的蛛丝马迹。 此次利率决议适逢关键经济数据密集发布周，包括周五将公布的月度非农就业报告。经济学家预计，由于特朗普贸易政策的不确定性持续拖累经济前 景，7月招聘活动将呈现放缓。 异议之声 许多分析师认为， ...

"我们认为，在诸多方面，鲍威尔主席的行动都过于迟缓，"白宫管理与预算办公室主任沃特告诉 CNN，"我们必须阐明美国民众和总统的观点：需要更低的利率，且反对在国家广场上搞这种铺张浪费 的工程。" "（特朗普）正明确表达他对利率水平的看法——利率应该比当前水平低得多，"他说。 在沃特发表这番言论之际，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将于美东时间周二和周三召开会议，外界普 遍预计美联储将维持利率不变。 若美联储做出这一决定，可能会将本已紧张的与特朗普政府的关系推向新冰点——特朗普正发起一场运 动，要求将借贷成本从当前的4.25%-4.5%区间降至仅1%。 美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克（Howard Lutnick）上周日坚称，美联储维持当前利率"毫无意义"。 "总统正带来数千亿美元收入，减少我们的赤字。这怎么就不能成为我们减少债务、降低利率的基础 呢？"卢特尼克告诉福克斯新闻。 特朗普对美联储的反复批评以及解雇鲍威尔的威胁，引发了华尔街对美联储独立性可能被削弱的担忧。 在美联储利率制定委员会本周召开重要会议之前，白宫加大了对美联储主席鲍威尔大幅降息的施压。 特朗普政府的预算主管拉塞尔·沃特（Russell Vough ...