Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in coking coal prices has led to regulatory intervention by the Dalian Commodity Exchange, implementing trading limits to curb speculation, resulting in a significant price correction for both coking coal and coke futures [2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Coking coal futures experienced a dramatic increase, rising by 333 points or 36% in a week, with trading limits imposed on July 29 to control excessive speculation [2][3]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has set daily opening limits for non-futures company members at 500 lots for the JM2509 contract and 2000 lots for other contracts [2]. - The market sentiment shifted rapidly as speculative trading turned, leading to a strong reaction against previous bullish trends [2][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Coking coal and coke production data indicate a mixed supply situation, with coking coal inventories at 536 million tons, down 13%, and premium coal inventories at 278.4 million tons, down 18%, marking a nine-month low [3][4]. - Steel mills are maintaining high production levels, with iron water output at over 242 million tons, contributing to increased demand for coking coal despite high prices [2][4]. - The overall sentiment in the coking coal market remains strong, with downstream purchasing activity increasing, although the pace of procurement for high-priced coal has slowed [2][3]. Group 3: Price Trends and Future Outlook - Analysts expect short-term volatility in the market, with the potential for price adjustments following the recent rapid increases [5][6]. - The focus is shifting from speculative trading to fundamental supply and demand dynamics, as the market adjusts to regulatory measures and the impact of production checks on coal mines [6]. - The current trading environment is characterized by intense competition, with expectations of price corrections in the near term as market participants await new driving factors [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that President Trump is shortening the deadline for a ceasefire agreement with Russia from 50 days to approximately 10 to 12 days, expressing disappointment in President Putin's willingness to negotiate [1] - Trump previously threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Russian oil and other exports if hostilities with Ukraine do not cease, indicating a significant shift in his tone towards Russia [1] - The U.S. and allied capitals view oil purchases from Russia as tacit support, which undermines the effectiveness of sanctions [1] Group 2 - Since Trump's renewed threats of sanctions, Russia has intensified missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, with Trump showing increasing impatience towards Putin [2] - NATO allies, particularly Germany, are negotiating to provide Ukraine with more "Patriot" air defense systems in response to the ongoing attacks [2] - A legislative proposal in Congress aims to impose a 500% tariff on countries purchasing Russian oil and gas, reflecting a broader push for economic pressure on Russia [2]

尽管如此，分析师认为，一些关键问题仍未解决——包括美联储是否会隶属于白宫。 近期，美国总统特朗普因扬言要解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，并主动要求参观美联储总部正在进行的翻修工 程，将鲍威尔推向了风口浪尖。 然而，本周所有人的目光都将聚焦在鲍威尔身上，因为他将在周四凌晨召开个人新闻发布会，这在当前 的政治大戏中无疑是一场"必看"的电视节目。 即将召开的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议对经济而言，其重要性并非特别高。劳动力市场表现稳 健，通胀也保持稳定，即便略高于美联储2%的目标。本次会议对于利率决定而言，也并非具有决定性 意义。市场普遍预计基准利率不会有任何变动。 然而，派珀·桑德勒（Piper Sandler）全球政策与全球资产配置主管本森·德拉姆（Benson Durham）表 示，在上周特朗普造访美联储后，这次会议感觉"至关重要"。 此次会议召开之际，特朗普已连续数周向鲍威尔和美联储施压，要求其降低利率，这令市场处于紧张状 态。特朗普曾考虑解雇鲍威尔，尽管他在造访美联储期间似乎放弃了这一立场。市场一直密切关注特朗 普对鲍威尔和美联储的态度——任何表明美联储丧失独立性的迹象，都可能震动经济并导致借贷成本上 升。 ...

Group 1: Currency and Economic Outlook - The Japanese yen is under pressure due to political uncertainty following the ruling coalition's loss of majority in the Senate elections, making a rebound difficult [1] - The US short-term yields are expected to support the dollar, with initial jobless claims data indicating a stable labor market despite some signs of weakness [1] - The Bank of Canada is likely to maintain interest rates unchanged due to sticky inflation and a resilient economy, despite soft economic data [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - Two Federal Reserve officials, Bowman and Waller, are expected to vote against the consensus in the upcoming meeting, which may lead to a mild bullish reaction in the interest rate market [2] - The Bank of Japan may signal a shift towards a less dovish stance in its upcoming policy meeting, influenced by a recent trade agreement with the US that reduces uncertainty [4] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in A-shares and Technology - CITIC Securities suggests that the A-share market is on an upward trajectory, with a focus on technology and non-bank financial sectors as potential beneficiaries of the bullish sentiment [5] - The report highlights sectors such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, non-bank finance, and renewable energy as key areas of interest [5] - The AI sector is expected to see accelerated adoption and integration into business operations, with significant growth potential in the coming years [8][11] Group 4: Automotive and Semiconductor Industry Insights - The automotive industry is poised to benefit from advancements in autonomous driving regulations, with Shanghai leading the way in high-level autonomous driving applications [9] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing increased demand for advanced processes due to the AI boom, with domestic manufacturers working to catch up amid supply chain challenges [10] Group 5: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The report indicates a shift towards industrialization in the restaurant supply chain, driven by efficiency demands and the rise of pre-prepared food products [16] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to present opportunities, particularly in the technology sector, which is seen as having significant recovery potential [12]

来源：清华金融评论 文/外交学院国际经济学院院长欧明刚 作为布雷顿森林机构的多边开发银行，世界银行已从一个单一的机构发展成为一个多边开发集团。80多年来，世行顺应时代的需要做出了多轮改革。特 朗普重返白宫后，其单边主义的行为对世界银行的改革进程的推进和目标的实现可能会造成阻扰。同时，考虑到当前不稳定的国际形势，世行正在进行 的有关变革的效果也值得观察。 作为布雷顿森林机构的多边开发银行，世界银行已从一个单一的机构发展成为一个多边开发集团，包括国际复兴开发银行（IBRD）、国际开发协会 （IDA）、国际金融公司（IFC）、多边投资担保机构（MIGA）和国际投资争端解决中心（ICSID）。80多年来，世行顺应时代的需要做出了多轮改革。 由于美国持有世行的一票否决权，世行行长由美国人来任命，因此，世行的重大改革大多是由美国发起和推动或得到美国认可的。但美国政府的更迭自 然会对世行改革产生溢出效应。发轫于新冠疫情并由2023年拜登政府任命的彭安杰（Ajaypal Singh Banga）行长推动的世行改革正在逐步实施之中，但特 朗普政府关于世行的看法有所不同，相应改革能否按期推进不得不引起各方的关注。 世行改革的主要 ...

周一，多晶硅期货主力合约低开触及跌停后快速反弹，几乎收回日内所有跌幅后重新下跌，午后再度跌 停，市场分析指出，今日下跌的直接触发因素或与监管政策收紧与资金情绪反转有关。广期所此前发布 交易限额、提高保证金及手续费等措施，抑制前期投机多头情绪；同时，市场对"反内卷"政策预期出现 分歧，前期炒作资金加速撤离，引发踩踏式抛售。但是，需要留意的是，多晶硅主力合约多次打开跌停 板，尾盘价格走高重新测试5万关口，或表明市场看涨预期仍存。 "不能低于成本价销售"对价格影响最大，具体是指什么？ 经济观察报表示，"不能低于成本价销售"和"交割品缺货"这两篇小作文对多晶硅的价格影响最大；尤其 前者，更是一系列小作文的源头。那么，这个"成本价"指的是企业各自的成本，抑或是行业的平均成 本？ 对此，通威股份表示，到目前为止，关于"不能低于成本价销售"这方面，整个行业还没有一个严格、准 确的统一口径，他们这边也不把握这个"成本价"的明确指向。大全能源建议通过中国有色金属工业协会 硅业分会这个途径详细了解"成本价"的口径指向。 而对于"交割品缺货"相关的小作文，出现的原因是由于通威股份此前曾在信息互动平台上表示，"多晶 硅期货交割品为N ...

周一，碳酸锂期货主力合约盘中触及跌停，收盘报73120元/吨，单日跌幅达7.98%。市场分析指出，直 接触发因素可能为监管政策收紧，广期所近期发布多项风控措施，包括提高交易手续费，对碳酸锂期货 LC2509合约进行交易限仓等。此举或抑制投机多头情绪，引发资金踩踏出逃。此外，前期"江西矿 审""藏格停产"等事件驱动的情绪溢价，在政策明确降温后迅速消散。交易所风控措施或是导致价格下 跌的"关键推手"？ 7月7日，宜春自然资源局下发文件，指出当地8座矿山存在越权办理登记手续的问题，要求9月30日前补 报矿种变更储量核实报告待专家评审。其中一座矿山的采矿证将于8月上旬到期，市场担忧在补充材料 的窗口期内面临暂时停产的风险。 7月23日，广期所发布公告，调整碳酸锂交易手续费保准：自2025年7月25日交易时起，碳酸锂期货 LC2509合约的交易手续费标准调整为成交金额的万分之一点六，日内平今仓交易手续费标准调整为成 交金额的万分之一点六。 7月25日，广期所发布关于调整碳酸锂期货LC2509合约交易限额的通知：经研究决定，自2025年7月28 日交易时起，非期货公司会员或者客户在碳酸锂期货LC2509合约上单日开仓量不 ...

Group 1 - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is overshadowed by other global issues, including the trade war initiated by Trump and the situation in Gaza, leading to a lack of media coverage on the conflict [1] - Trump has indicated that Ukraine could receive more U.S.-made weapons if NATO allies cover the costs, while giving Russia a 50-day ultimatum to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine, threatening severe sanctions and up to 100% secondary tariffs if unsuccessful [1][2] - Analysts express skepticism about whether the threat of further sanctions will genuinely compel Putin to negotiate with Ukraine, highlighting the complexities of the situation and the potential for unknown variables [2][3] Group 2 - Ukraine is experiencing internal unrest due to dissatisfaction with the ongoing martial law, lack of elections, and concerns over Zelensky's wartime leadership, which has led to protests against government actions perceived as undermining anti-corruption efforts [4] - The recent government reshuffle in Ukraine has raised concerns about Zelensky consolidating power among loyalists, potentially alarming international supporters and donors [4][5] - The current dynamics suggest that Ukraine is in a critical phase of internal consolidation amid growing external uncertainties, with the West increasingly viewing international support as transactional rather than aimed at promoting democratic reforms [5]

反对者认为，单笔交易无论规模多大都不代表意识形态背叛。他们强调此次出售明确关联遗产规划，而 非信念丧失。更有社区成员指出，像亚当·巴克（Adam Back）等元老仍在持续增持，梅尔克的言论纯属 臆测。 支持者则断言，巨鲸退场折射出更深刻的转向——随着比特币通过ETF、企业国库和托管方案被传统金 融收编，其"抗审查、去中心化"的原始精神正被稀释。对他们而言，早期持有者的退出恰印证了比特币 已从"个人主权工具"沦为"金融工程产物"。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 数字资产公司Galaxy Digital上周五宣布，它为一位比特币上古时期的"巨鲸"投资者完成超过8万枚比特 币的出售，总价值逾90亿美元。这笔加密货币史上最大规模的单笔交易之一，标志着中本聪时代（比特 币诞生初期）持有者的罕见退出。 这一消息宣布后，比特币价格基本保持稳定，目前交易价格接近11.9万美元，比周末前水平高出约5千 美元。 该公司表示，此次抛售是客户遗产规划策略的一部分。这些早期投资者当年以每枚几美元甚至美分的成 本建仓，如今已成为数字资产领域最集中的财富群体。 这场交易迅速演变为象征性事件，有人视其为正常的资产 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - The stock market has experienced unusual volatility, with Opendoor Technologies' stock price soaring approximately 377% over the past month despite a stagnant U.S. real estate market [1] - Kohl's, a department store, has seen significant stock movement as investors speculate on the potential sale of its real estate assets, with the stock down over 70% since early 2022 [2] - The rise of meme stocks and speculative trading has been reminiscent of the 2021 market frenzy, with companies like GameStop previously reaching a valuation of $24 billion [2] Group 2: Speculative Investments - Many high-risk assets, including meme stocks and cryptocurrencies, have attracted substantial investment, with a notable increase in stocks that have not reported profits [2][3] - The ARK Innovation ETF, which includes several unprofitable speculative companies, has risen over 36% this year, indicating a strong appetite for speculative trading [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Market - The prices of cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Bitcoin have surged recently, driven by favorable policies and increased acceptance from mainstream financial institutions [3] - Companies, including Trump Media Technology Group, have accumulated significant amounts of Bitcoin, raising concerns about the potential risks in the cryptocurrency market [3] Group 4: Stock Valuation Concerns - Despite a broad market rally, stock valuations remain high, with the equity risk premium nearing zero, suggesting minimal additional returns for holding stocks compared to low-risk bonds [4] - The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index and other sectors have seen substantial gains, but analysts warn that the current valuation levels may not be sustainable [4] Group 5: Employment Market Insights - Signs of weakness in the employment market have emerged, with private sector job growth at an eight-month low and a slowdown in hiring [5] - Economic indicators suggest a potential slowdown in growth for the second half of the year, raising concerns about consumer spending and overall economic health [5]