Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to end its quantitative tightening (QT) may not be as beneficial for the stock market as most investors believe, despite the significant implications of this policy shift [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - The Federal Reserve has reduced its balance sheet by $2.2 trillion since June 2022, which has been a major obstacle for the stock market [1]. - Historically, the stock market has performed better during periods of quantitative tightening than during quantitative easing (QE) [1][2]. Group 2: Stock Market Performance - During the recent QT phase, the S&P 500 index had an annualized total return of 20.9%, approximately double its historical average [1]. - Since 2003, during the 12-month periods of balance sheet contraction, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 16.9%, compared to only 10.3% during periods of balance sheet expansion [1]. Group 3: Economic Context - The negative correlation between the Fed's balance sheet size and the stock market is linked to the economic conditions when the Fed decides to expand or contract its balance sheet [2]. - The recent QT was possible due to a strong economy, suggesting that the announcement to end QT may indicate an impending economic downturn [5].

以色列空袭导致胡塞武装参谋长身亡，这是该组织中被以色列杀害的最高级别官员。 以色列表示，8月份的一次空袭导致穆罕默德·阿卜杜勒卡里姆·加马里少将（Muhammad Abdulkarim al- Ghamari）死亡。胡塞武装在周四宣布了他的死讯，并表示他与13岁的儿子侯赛因（Hussein）一起在空 袭中丧生。具体死亡时间尚不清楚。 加马里曾担任胡塞武装部队的参谋长，是该组织的最高军事战略家和行动指挥官。他被认为是这个伊朗 支持的组织中最有影响力的人物之一，负责协调也门陆军、海军和导弹部队之间的行动，指挥针对美国 领导的联军和以色列目标的关键战役。 马达尼指挥胡塞武装负责红海沿岸行动的第五军区，被认为是该运动最有影响力的战地指挥官之一。他 因在加剧也门内战中发挥的重要作用而被美国财政部列为全球恐怖分子，并受到制裁。 自从以色列和哈马斯本周达成停火协议以来，胡塞武装已经停止了对以色列的频繁无人机和弹道导弹袭 击。该组织曾承诺，如果加沙实现停火，他们将停止对以色列的敌对行动。 8月下旬，以色列军队对反叛分子首都萨那的胡塞政府官员集会进行了空袭。当时，胡塞武装表示，这 次袭击造成12名高级政府官员死亡，包括总理，但 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Multiple Federal Reserve officials are laying the groundwork for further interest rate cuts, with discussions around a potential 25 to 50 basis point reduction [11] - The U.S. credit market is experiencing significant stress, leading to increased risk aversion and heightened expectations for rate cuts [3][11] - The U.S. dollar index continued its decline, closing down 0.31% at 98.361, while U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board [3][8] Group 2: Commodity Markets - Spot gold prices surged to a record high, increasing by 2.8% to $4326.12 per ounce, driven by rising risk aversion and expectations of rate cuts [3][8] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 2.39% to $56.87 per barrel, influenced by concerns over oversupply and global economic outlook [4][8] - Silver prices also rose, closing at $54.15 per ounce, up 2.19% [8] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock indices collectively declined, with the Dow Jones down 0.65%, S&P 500 down 0.63%, and Nasdaq down 0.47% [4][8] - European stock indices showed positive performance, with France's CAC40 up 1.38% and Germany's DAX30 up 0.38% [5][8] - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index fell slightly by 0.09%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.18% [5][8] Group 4: Corporate Developments - Zions Bancorp reported a $50 million impairment charge related to a loan issue, highlighting ongoing challenges in the banking sector [11] - Tesla and Apple stocks both experienced declines of around 1%, while Oracle and Western Digital saw gains of over 3% and 4%, respectively [4][8] - In the A-share market, the coal mining sector showed strong performance, with several stocks hitting the daily limit up [6]

Core Points - French Prime Minister Le Maire survived two no-confidence votes, gaining a fragile respite and creating an opportunity to pass the 2026 budget [1] - The votes were supported by abstentions from the Socialist Party and center-right lawmakers, despite 271 votes in favor of his ousting, just 18 votes short of the required threshold [1] - Political turmoil in France has persisted for the past two weeks, with Le Maire resigning and being reappointed, ultimately conceding to suspend a controversial pension reform [1][2] Budget and Economic Implications - Le Maire urged opposition parties to allow his government to pass a budget aimed at reducing the deficit from 5.4% in 2025 to below 5% [2] - He proposed a €30 billion tax increase and spending cuts, inviting open debate and negotiations among lawmakers [2] - The survival of the government and the potential for budget passage led to a rebound in French assets, with 10-year borrowing costs falling below 3.35% for the first time since mid-August [2] Political Landscape - The respite for Le Maire may be temporary, as far-right leader Le Pen calls for new legislative elections, while the far-left demands Macron's resignation [2] - The Socialist Party has not reached any long-term support agreement with Le Maire, and there are divisions within the conservative Republican Party regarding the pension policy reversal [2] - Le Pen warned that the government may only survive a few more weeks, describing the situation as "toxic" for democracy [2]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing government shutdown, now in its 15th day, is likely to extend into November, with increasing pressure on lawmakers to reach a resolution as the Thanksgiving travel season approaches [1][2]. Group 1: Government Shutdown Duration and Impacts - Analysts have raised their predictions for the duration of the government shutdown, suggesting it could last at least until November 4, due to a lack of negotiation or compromise between parties [2][3]. - The economic cost of the shutdown is significant, with estimates suggesting it could be costing the U.S. economy up to $15 billion per day [2][3]. - If the shutdown continues into mid-November, it could become the longest in U.S. history, surpassing the previous record of 34 days set in 2018 [5]. Group 2: Legislative and Political Dynamics - There is a growing consensus that the need for farmer relief and healthcare subsidy extensions will force Republicans and Democrats to negotiate [3][4]. - The end of October marks critical deadlines related to military pay and healthcare enrollment, which may act as a catalyst for negotiations [4][5]. - The potential impact on the Thanksgiving travel season is a significant concern, with warnings of increased flight cancellations and delays if the shutdown persists [5].

Core Insights - The futures market shows a strong bullish sentiment with 59 contracts rising and 20 contracts falling, indicating increased trading activity in upward-moving commodities [2] Group 1: Market Performance - The top gainers include polysilicon (+3.51%), coking coal (+3.36%), LPG (+3.07%), butadiene rubber (+3.05%), and Shanghai silver (+2.93%) [4] - The largest declines were seen in the shipping index (-3.64%), live pigs (-3.21%), apples (-1.82%), peanuts (-1.14%), and eggs (-1.05%), likely due to increased bearish pressure or negative fundamentals [6] Group 2: Capital Flows - The most significant capital inflows were into the SSE 50 (1.403 billion), coking coal (670 million), and CSI 300 (602 million), indicating strong interest from major funds [8] - Conversely, the largest capital outflows were from CSI 1000 (-2.862 billion), CSI 500 (-1.7 billion), and copper (-1.299 billion), suggesting notable fund withdrawals from these commodities [8] Group 3: Position Changes - Significant increases in open interest were observed in live pigs (+15.52%), apples (+11.30%), SSE (+9.43%), soybeans (+8.48%), and silicon iron (+6.31%), indicating new capital entering these markets [11] - Conversely, notable decreases in open interest were seen in butadiene rubber (-24.75%), crude oil (-21.62%), corn (-16.81%), lumber (-14.36%), and starch (-13.59%), suggesting potential exits by major funds [11] Group 4: Key Events - Glass production companies in Shahe are required to complete "coal-to-gas" conversions by the end of the month, affecting a capacity of 8,100 tons/day, with an estimated cost increase of 80-100 yuan/ton [12] - Malaysian palm oil production increased by 6.86% from the previous month, with a reported yield increase of 5.76% [12] Group 5: Industry Insights - The rebar production has decreased for two consecutive weeks, with a current output of 201.16 million tons, down 1.1% from the previous week [13][14] - Domestic soda ash production has decreased by 3.93% to 74.05 million tons, with total inventory increasing by 0.94% to 170.05 million tons [15] Group 6: Precious Metals Outlook - Gold and silver prices have shown volatility, with gold expected to reach $4,400 by the end of 2025 and $4,600 by mid-2026, driven by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [17] - The market for precious metals remains uncertain, with potential risks from high prices and fluctuating demand [26][27]

Core Points - President Trump plans to attend the Supreme Court oral arguments regarding tariffs, emphasizing the importance of tariffs for national defense and security [3] - The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments on November 5 regarding Trump's request to overturn lower court rulings that found he lacked authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [3][8] - Trump's administration argues that the IEEPA grants the president the right to regulate imports in response to "any unusual and special threat" [3][5] Legal Arguments - Trump's chief lawyer, John Sauer, contends that the Supreme Court has previously rejected similar claims regarding the president's authority [4] - The plaintiffs argue that even if the IEEPA grants tariff authority, it does not allow for unlimited tariff imposition [5] - Sauer asserts that decisions regarding foreign affairs and emergencies should be made by the president and Congress, not the courts [6][7] Tariff Strategy - Despite the ongoing Supreme Court case, Trump continues to announce new tariffs, including a 100% tariff on imported brand-name drugs and a 50% tariff on cabinets and related products [7][8] - The administration's actions are described as a "dual-track tariff strategy," indicating a potential continuation of tariffs regardless of the court's decision [8] - Legal experts suggest that businesses should consider tariffs as a significant aspect of regulatory and enforcement frameworks in the foreseeable future [8]

Core Insights - Precious metals have regained their status as safe-haven assets due to domestic turmoil in the U.S. and geopolitical tensions, with gold prices surpassing $4,000 per ounce for the first time in October and reaching over $4,240, while silver exceeded $53 [1] - Analysts from major financial institutions, such as JPMorgan, suggest that a mere 0.5% shift of foreign investors' U.S. assets into gold could drive prices to $6,000 per ounce, indicating significant growth potential for both gold and silver [1] - The year-to-date performance of precious metals has been remarkable, with silver and platinum futures rising over 80% and 85% respectively, while palladium has increased by over 75%, and gold has seen a rise of more than 60% [1] Market Dynamics - The recent surge in precious metals was influenced by President Trump's "liberation day" tariff announcement, which temporarily depressed U.S. stocks and led investors to seek refuge in metals, alongside expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - Precious metals are benefiting from "currency devaluation trades," as investors typically turn to hard assets like metals when confidence in fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar declines [2] Future Projections - Despite the current upward trend, there are indications of potential short-term pullbacks in gold prices, as historical patterns suggest that consecutive weeks of price increases often precede declines [3] - Analysts predict that gold and silver could reach $5,000 per ounce and $65 per ounce respectively by 2026, with expectations of gradual declines rather than abrupt drops if a broader correction occurs [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Yellen, indicated that the Japanese yen could stabilize at an appropriate level if the Bank of Japan continues its correct monetary policy, amidst concerns over the yen's rapid depreciation [1][4]. Group 1: Yen Depreciation and Market Reactions - The yen's depreciation rate is at least twice that of other major currencies, reaching a low of 153.27 against the dollar on October 10, which has cooled speculation about a recent interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [1]. - The dollar-yen exchange rate rebounded to around 151 before the European market opened on Thursday [1]. - Japanese Finance Minister Kato Masanobu acknowledged the yen's rapid movement towards weakness, supporting the currency's outlook [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - Yellen refrained from commenting on the specific level of the yen or the upcoming policy decision by Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo, but noted Ueda's capabilities [4]. - Hawkish member of the Bank of Japan, Tamura Naoki, suggested that inflation trends may reach targets sooner than the bank currently anticipates, despite political instability reducing the likelihood of a policy tightening this month [5]. - Market expectations for a rate hike this month have dropped significantly, with only a 15% probability as of Thursday, down from 70% at the end of the previous month [5]. - Former Bank of Japan Executive Director, Kamezawa Kazuo, indicated that if the yen depreciates to 155 or lower against the dollar, a rate hike could be likely, especially with the new government potentially accepting such actions to mitigate inflation pressures [5].

美联储主席鲍威尔声称，当前劳动力市场降温、通胀回升，美联储已陷入"无风险路径可选"的困境。若 官员们为抑制通胀而维持高利率，可能会损害劳动力市场；若为支撑劳动力市场而降息，又可能让通胀 更难控制。 目前来看，鲍威尔似乎更愿意在通胀问题上"冒险"。他的理由是，今年夏季招聘大幅放缓后，劳动力市 场面临的风险已显著上升。种种迹象表明，美联储将在本月底的下次会议上，实施今年第二次降息。9 月发布的预测还显示，多数官员认为，在12月今年最后一次会议上，仍有空间再降25个基点。 但有经济学家警告，若劳动力市场未进一步走弱，美联储的降息空间可能仅限于此。若继续大幅降息， 通胀可能会被困在美联储2%的目标之上。 "通胀长期大幅偏离目标，对美联储而言是切实风险。"德意志银行、首席美国经济学家马修·卢泽蒂 （Matthew Luzzetti）表示，"边际宽松政策将导致通胀在更高水平维持更久。" 鲍威尔对通胀的乐观态度，源于他的两个判断：一是特朗普的关税政策仅会导致消费者价格一次性上 涨，而非引发多轮涨价、推升持续性通胀；二是劳动力市场走弱将抑制消费价格涨幅——尤其是在薪资 增长疲软、失业率上升、整体支出放缓的情况下。他的乐观态度 ...