由于7月4日是假期，本周的非农报告罕见地在周四而非周五发布。 报告特别指出："只要非农数据高于10万，股市仍将获得支撑。虽然我们视之为积极信号，但接近预测 区间下端的数据可能难以显著改善市场情绪——尤其是考虑到美联储主席鲍威尔此前关于关税影响将在 6-8月数据中显现的警告。" 周三，在非农数据公布前，标普500指数创下年内新高。 然而，6月ADP报告显示私营部门就业减少3.3 万个岗位，这令部分交易员和经济学家对预测产生动摇。 虽然ADP数据并不总能准确预测美国劳工统计局（BLS）的就业数据，但此次疲软表现确实强化了经济 可能开始失速的观点。 摩根大通设定了不同情景下的市场反应： 新增8.5万-10.5万：标普500指数可能下跌0.25%-1.5% 摩根大通交易部门模拟推演显示，若周四公布的就业数据与早前ADP报告的疲软态势相似，美国股市很 可能出现大幅抛售。 该行美国市场情报团队周三发布报告称，符合预期的就业数据可能推动股市上涨，但下行风险明显大于 上行空间。 根据道琼斯调查，经济学家普遍预测6月新增就业岗位11万个。 摩根大通首席美国经济学家迈克尔·费罗利（Michael Feroli）则预计新增12.5 ...

在美国总统特朗普及其盟友努力赢取党内支持后，共和党保守派强硬人士对大规模税收和支出一揽子法 案的抵制态度在当地时间周三晚间开始软化。 共和党国会领导人将一项关键的程序性投票推迟了数小时，期间，因担忧高达3.4万亿美元法案成本的 极端保守派人士聚集在紧邻众议院议事厅的一个房间里，商讨他们的要求，随后与特朗普的预算主管拉 斯·沃特（Russ Vought）举行了会议。 沃特在下午晚些时候离开会议时告诉记者，双方正在"取得良好进展"。当天早些时候，特朗普曾召集几 位保守派人士到白宫与他们当面会晤。 特朗普希望在7月4日之前通过这项财政方案的雄心勃勃的时间表，但这不仅遭到了保守派的抵制，也遭 到了来自摇摆选区温和派的抵制，后者担心该措施对医疗补助和其他社会安全网计划的削减过深。 尽管如此，众议院议长迈克·约翰逊（Mike Johnson）仍表示乐观，认为足够多的共和党议员会转而支持 这项立法，其中包括该党在竞选时承诺的减税、逐步取消拜登时代的清洁能源激励措施，以及为特朗普 打击非法移民提供资金。约翰逊说，"我们议程的大部分内容都包含在这项立法中，所以它必须通过。" 到傍晚时分，一位曾在5月份投票反对该法案众议院初始版 ...

然而，周三特斯拉股价反而上涨5%至315.65美元，"对于特斯拉来说，'焰火'来得有点早，"Wedbush分 析师丹·艾夫斯（Dan Ives）这样评价，并称业绩好于担忧。艾夫斯给予"买入"评级，目标价500美元。 威廉·布莱尔（William Blair）分析师杰德·多斯海默（Jed Dorsheimer）也持类似看法，他给予"买入"评 级，但未给出具体目标价。 多数投资者已有所准备，因大多数季度中期销售数据不佳。根据花旗分析师杰夫·钟（Jeff Chung）跟踪 的每周数据，特斯拉在欧洲4月和5月的销量同比下滑约37%；在中国季度销量则同比下降逾10%。 此外，马斯克在特朗普政府中的立场令部分倾向环保的左翼核心买家望而却步，特斯拉管理层在4月第 一季度财报电话会议上也承认品牌面临挑战，贸易紧张局势让部分亚洲消费者回避购买美国产品。 周三数据显示，特斯拉(TSLA.O)在第二季度交付了384,122辆汽车，较2024年第二季度的444,000辆下降 了13.5%，但与华尔街普遍预期的约386,000辆仅差不多持平。 这是该公司历史上季度降幅最大的一次，不过好于预期，也高于2025年第一季度的337,000辆 ...

Core Points - The U.S. has halted the delivery of several high-value weapons to Ukraine, raising concerns about Kyiv's defense capabilities amid recent Russian advances [1][2] - Ukrainian officials have expressed disappointment and concern over the impact of this decision on their military strategy and civilian infrastructure [2][3] - The Pentagon stated that the review of military aid is aimed at aligning with U.S. defense priorities, emphasizing the need to maintain military readiness [1][2] Group 1: U.S. Decision and Its Implications - The decision to suspend military aid was made in early June but only took effect recently, with some shipments already en route to Ukraine at the time of the halt [3] - The weapons affected include PAC-3 interceptors for the Patriot air defense system, Stinger missiles, precision-guided munitions, and Hellfire missiles [1][2] - The Kremlin welcomed the U.S. decision, suggesting that fewer weapons supplied to Ukraine could lead to a quicker end to the conflict [3][4] Group 2: Impact on Ukraine's Defense - The lack of Patriot missiles is expected to increase the success rate of Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, potentially leading to higher civilian casualties [3][4] - Ukrainian military officials indicated that the suspension of promised systems would significantly affect their planning and expose civilian infrastructure to attacks [2][3] - Analysts suggest that while European and Asian sources may partially compensate for the reduced U.S. aid, the immediate situation for Ukrainian forces will become more challenging [4]

Core Viewpoint - The UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's support for Chancellor Rachel Reeves is crucial amid market concerns regarding her political future and the potential impact on government fiscal policies [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Reactions - The UK government’s abrupt cancellation of a £50 billion disability benefits cut led to significant declines in UK bonds and the pound, with the 10-year gilt yield rising by 0.16 percentage points to 4.61%, marking the largest single-day increase since April of the previous year [1] - The pound fell by 0.9% against the dollar and 0.7% against the euro, reflecting investor anxiety over the Chancellor's position [1] Group 2: Political Dynamics - Concerns about the potential replacement of the Chancellor could lead to modifications or abandonment of fiscal rules, resulting in larger deficits and increased borrowing [2] - Reeves' emotional display during parliamentary questioning intensified speculation about her resignation, with allies asserting that she is viewed as a bulwark against excessive government borrowing [2][3] Group 3: Fiscal Policy Implications - The reversal of welfare policies creates a £50 billion gap in Reeves' plans to improve public finances, raising the likelihood of tax increases or spending cuts in the upcoming autumn budget [4] - The internal dissent within the Labour Party regarding welfare reforms has made Reeves a target for criticism, complicating her fiscal strategy [2][3]

特朗普一直在加强对这位美联储主席的施压运动，猛烈抨击美联储维持利率不变的立场。特朗普上个月 表示，他会选择一位希望削减借贷成本的继任者。 美国联邦住房金融局（FHFA）局长Bill Pulte呼吁国会调查美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，指控其最近在参 议院就美联储总部翻修计划所作的证词"具有欺骗性"。 "我请求国会调查主席鲍威尔、他的政治偏见以及他具有欺骗性的参议院证词，这足以将他'因故'免 职，"Pulte周三在社交媒体上的一篇帖子中说，他指控鲍威尔发表了不准确的陈述，但未提供证据。 Pulte一直在加大对鲍威尔的批评力度，并在另一篇帖子中敦促他辞职。作为一家主要住房监管机构的 负责人，Pulte也曾力促鲍威尔降息，称民众正受到高昂借贷成本的伤害。 长期以来一直抱怨鲍威尔不愿更快降息的美国总统特朗普，在当地时间周三晚间放大了这位FHFA局长 要求美联储主席辞职的呼声。 "'太迟先生'应该立刻辞职！！！"特朗普在社交媒体写道，他用这个绰号来嘲讽鲍威尔不降低利率。 另外，众议院司法委员会主席吉姆·乔丹（Jim Jordan）表示，议员们没有具体讨论过这个问题，但 会"看一看"。 最高法院最近在一项裁决中保护了美联储， ...

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 美国6月"小非农"创2023年3月以来最大降幅，利率期货几乎完全定价美联储9月降息 特朗普宣布与越南达成贸易协议，征收20%关税 里士满联储主席巴尔金：目前没有改变政策的紧迫性 英国财长里夫斯在议会中落泪，英国首相方面紧急发声称其支持里夫斯 国务院副总理张国清：坚持科技赋能，加快产业创新，持续推进制造业高质量发展 今年8000亿元"两重"建设项目清单已全部下达完毕 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩会见王毅 8月1日起，现金买黄金超10万元将需上报 市场盘点 周三，美元指数小幅反弹，盘中一度重回97关口上方，但随后回吐部分涨幅，最终收涨0.13%，报96.77；基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.284%，2年期美债 收益率收报3.797%。 因弱于预期的"小非农"引发了人们对美联储将更早降息的希望。现货黄金在美盘时段突破3350美元关口，最终收涨0.55%，收报3357.15美元/盎司；现货白银 最终收涨1.46%，报36.54美元/盎司。 因伊朗暂停与联合国核监督机构的合作 ...

Core Viewpoint - The emotional breakdown of UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves during a parliamentary session has led to significant market reactions, raising concerns about her position and the government's stability [2][3][5]. Market Reactions - UK borrowing costs surged, with the yield on 10-year government bonds rising by 22 basis points to 4.681%, marking the largest single-day sell-off since October 10, 2022 [3]. - The British pound fell over 1% against the US dollar, dropping below the 1.36 mark, which is the largest single-day decline since mid-June [3]. - The mid-cap index in the UK dropped by 1.65%, underperforming compared to European markets [5]. Political Context - Reeves faced backlash for a series of policy reversals that have created a fiscal gap in the budget plan, leading to investor unease [5]. - The government had to abandon measures that could have led to long-term savings, which has raised concerns about potential tax increases or spending cuts in the upcoming annual budget [5][6]. - Opposition leaders criticized Reeves, questioning her capability and the support she has from Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who has not explicitly backed her amidst the turmoil [6][7].

Group 1 - OPEC's production increased by 360,000 barrels per day in June, reaching 28 million barrels, with two-thirds of the increase coming from Saudi Arabia [2] - Despite weak oil demand and impending global oversupply, Saudi Arabia is pushing OPEC and its allies to quickly restore supply, which may alleviate consumer pressure and align with Trump's interests [2] - The recent policy shift of the OPEC+ alliance has surprised oil traders, moving from defending oil prices to increasing production, with plans to discuss an additional increase of approximately 411,000 barrels per day in August [2][5] Group 2 - Saudi Arabia's production increased by 240,000 barrels per day in June, reaching 9.37 million barrels, in line with new production targets [3][4] - The UAE and Kuwait also contributed to the increase, with the UAE's production rising by 90,000 barrels per day to 3.4 million barrels, and Iraq's by 30,000 barrels to 4.21 million barrels [5] - The shipping data indicates that Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE's exports significantly exceeded production, likely to divert supply from the region's turmoil, with an average of 11.9 million barrels shipped per day in June, the highest in over two years [5]

Group 1 - The core issue of the article revolves around the impact of Trump's administration on the global economic order, particularly in the realm of international tax rules and trade [1] - The G7 countries have been forced to accept exemptions for U.S. companies from certain tax rules, indicating a shift in international tax dynamics [2] - The compromise reached may lead to future conflicts, particularly regarding digital taxes, as countries like the UK, France, Spain, and Italy have already implemented similar taxes [3] Group 2 - The U.S. tax supremacy ideology has emerged, with bipartisan support in Washington against foreign extraterritorial taxation [2] - The agreement to exempt U.S. companies from specific rules may set a precedent for future negotiations, raising concerns about the credibility of U.S. commitments [3] - The complexity of the dual taxation system is increasing for multinational companies, leading to greater policy uncertainty and higher cross-border operational costs [3]