疲软的就业数据与温和的生产者价格数据（PPI），让交易员认定美联储在9月16日至17日的会议上必然降息25个基 点，且年底前可能再跟进两次同等幅度的降息。 债券交易员正严阵以待一份高风险的美国通胀报告，该报告可能打乱他们的押注：即美联储本月起将开启一轮大幅 降息，并持续至2026年。 但除此之外，市场对经济风险平衡的判断已发生转变。目前的仓位布局显示，交易员认为美联储最终会将利率降 至"中性水平"以下，通过政策刺激增长以规避衰退。 这一转变堪称"巨变"：过去一年的大部分时间里，由于通胀表现顽固，交易员一直不敢押注如此大规模的宽松。在 当前格局下，周四发布的消费者价格指数（CPI）报告受到的关注度大幅提升。根据经济学家的共识预期，该报告预 计将显示核心CPI同比涨幅仍远高于美联储目标。 对美联储的降息押注已经推动美债在过去一个月反弹，其中美国2年期国债收益率跌至4月以来最低，但眼下的风险 是投资者可能已过度乐观。 "债市前端（短期债券）的定价反映的是经济疲软预期，而非对通胀的关注，"Columbia Threadneedle总回报债券基金 投资组合经理埃德·阿勒侯赛尼（Ed Al-Hussainy）表示，"若市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged, with various banks providing insights on potential future actions and economic conditions affecting this decision [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Several banks, including Scotiabank and HSBC, anticipate that the ECB will keep interest rates steady, with a cautious approach towards any future rate cuts [1][2]. - Bank of America suggests that ECB President Lagarde will mention the US-EU trade agreement while emphasizing flexibility without committing to future actions [3]. - Societe Generale predicts that the next rate cut may occur in the first quarter of next year, influenced by weakening inflation and increasing negative impacts from tariffs [4]. - UBS believes that the rate cut cycle may have ended due to large-scale fiscal stimulus measures being introduced in the EU, which are expected to support the economy starting next year [6]. - Danske Bank concludes that the easing cycle is likely over, with rates expected to remain unchanged until the end of next year due to unexpected growth and fiscal measures [7]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and ECB's Position - Monex Group indicates that if Lagarde officially announces victory over inflation and signals the end of the current easing cycle, the euro may appreciate [8]. - French Foreign Trade Bank notes that a final rate cut of 25 basis points in December is possible, contingent on a more severe slowdown in the labor market than anticipated [9]. - Berenberg Bank highlights that the market is focused on how the ECB will respond to political turmoil in France, although Lagarde is likely to remain silent on this matter [10]. - ING suggests that the current rationale for the ECB's inaction is strong, but the market may be underestimating the possibility of another rate cut this year [11].

Core Viewpoint - Kamala Harris criticizes the decision-making process regarding Joe Biden's potential re-election, deeming it reckless and overly reliant on personal ambition rather than a collective decision [1]. Group 1: Harris's Reflections on Biden's Decision - Harris expresses that the decision for Biden to run again should not have been made solely by him and Jill Biden, highlighting the high stakes involved [1]. - She questions whether the decision was made for the sake of appearances or out of recklessness, ultimately leaning towards the latter [1]. - Harris emphasizes that such choices should transcend personal ego and ambition, advocating for a more holistic approach to decision-making [1]. Group 2: Harris's Loyalty and Critique - After losing the Democratic nomination in 2020, Harris was selected as Biden's running mate, becoming the first female Vice President in U.S. history [3]. - She reflects on her past criticisms of Biden during the 2019 debates, noting that she felt compelled to repeatedly prove her loyalty to him afterward [3]. - Harris contemplates whether she should have encouraged Biden to step aside, acknowledging the potential perception of her suggestion as disloyalty [3]. Group 3: Evaluation of Biden's Capabilities - Despite questioning Biden's decision to run again, Harris defends his intelligence and capability to fulfill presidential duties, asserting that his knowledge and empathy surpass those of Donald Trump [3]. - She acknowledges that Biden's age has become a concern, noting signs of fatigue and errors in his physical and verbal expressions [3]. - Concerns regarding Biden's age and suitability for office have been prevalent since the 2020 campaign, peaking after poor debate performances against Trump [3]. Group 4: Internal Conflicts within the Biden Administration - Harris describes conflicts with Biden's team, indicating that they often undermined her, particularly when she faced Republican attacks [4]. - She points out that the White House did not adequately defend her against claims of being a "diversity hire" [4]. - Harris also mentions a lack of support from the administration when addressing issues related to Central American immigration [4]. Group 5: Zero-Sum Mentality in Biden's Team - Harris believes that Biden's core team fears her success could overshadow Biden, reflecting a zero-sum mentality where her achievements are seen as a threat to his image [5]. - She argues that her success should be viewed as a shared victory rather than a competition for attention [5].

特朗普政府将大量时间与精力投入两大外交领域，而在不到24小时内，这两个领域各出现了一项重大挑 战。 以色列空袭多哈的哈马斯办公室，以及俄罗斯无人机深入波兰领空，这两件事给白宫带来了两大难题 ——可以说，这是对特朗普权威的两大公然挑战。 在这两起事件中，他眼中"虽有分歧但属天然盟友"的领导人——俄罗斯总统普京与以色列总理内塔尼亚 胡——都给白宫的和平努力添了大麻烦。 以色列空袭多哈：打乱加沙外交架构 毕竟，对于乌克兰和加沙这两场冲突，这位美国总统曾表示会迅速、果断地解决。 先看时机：特朗普政府刚提交旨在结束加沙战争的最新提案两天，多哈空袭就发生了。 特朗普在社交媒体上告诉哈马斯，这是他们的最后机会。 "我已警告哈马斯，不接受（提案）将面临后果，"他上周日在"真相社交"上写道，"这是我的最后通 牒，不会再有下一次！" 哈马斯高层在多哈集会，商议如何回应提案，但以色列没有等待结果。这次空袭不仅彻底推翻了美国的 最新提案，还可能摧毁特朗普政府严重依赖的、脆弱的加沙外交架构。 关于美国"何时、如何得知以色列空袭计划"，以及"是否本可采取更多措施阻止"，争议不断。卡塔尔境 内有美国在全球最重要的空军基地之一（乌代德基地） ...

SHMET 网讯：特朗普为争夺美联储控制权发起的史无前例行动，于周三迎来充满悬念的阶段性结 局。两场平行推进的博弈将共同决定谁有权参与下周至关重要的美联储利率会议。 周二深夜，联邦法官批准了美联储理事莉萨·库克（Lisa Cook）的禁制令申请，暂时阻止了特朗普 罢免其职务的企图。这项裁决不仅是库克个人的重要法律胜利，更广泛意义上也是央行独立性的胜利 ——它确保库克至少目前得以留任，并为她参加下周美联储会议扫清道路。届时官员们很可能做出今年 首次降息决定。 周三上午，焦点转向参议院银行委员会。共和党人正全力推动特朗普顾问斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）填补美联储理事会另一个空缺席位，这意味着参议院最快本周进行全院表决，使其有望参与同 一场会议。 在今夏一连串疲软就业数据公布后，市场普遍预期下周会议将降息25个基点。库克在政策决策上与 美联储主席鲍威尔始终保持一致。由于米兰未透露具体政策倾向，其是否会支持更大幅度降息尚不可 知。 除即时投票权外，参会资格之所以关键，在于官员们将提交新季度经济预测，这些展望将塑造市场 对美联储后续行动的预期。 为绕开美联储理事长期享有的职务保障，特朗普上月以所谓"房贷欺 ...

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 美国8月PPI年率录得2.6%，为6月以来新低 法官阻止罢免美联储理事库克，特朗普政府火速上诉 美国劳工部总监察长办公室启动对劳工统计局的审查 美联储理事提名人米兰如期通过参议院委员会考验 印度抵制全面加密货币框架，担心系统性风险 知情人士：OpenAI与甲骨文签署3000亿美元算力大单 自然资源部：我国油气与铀矿实现重大找矿突破 市场盘点 周三，美国8月PPI意外大幅降温，美元指数应声下挫，但随后收复失地，最终收涨0.07%，报97.81。基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.0930%，对美联储政策 利率敏感的2年期美债收益率收报3.5520%。 美国8月PPI出乎意料地下降，让市场目前几乎完全消化了今年余下时间三次降息的预期，现货黄金一度逼近3560美元/盎司，最终收涨0.45%，收报3639.81 美元/盎司；现货白银最终收涨0.57%，报41.14美元/盎司。 因投资者权衡特朗普对俄罗斯采取进一步惩罚措施的可能，油价连续第三个交易日上涨。WTI原油大涨1.5 ...

民主党人称这种安排很荒谬。他们表示，考虑到特朗普将控制他是留在美联储理事会还是继续领取白宫 的薪水，他将独立于特朗普的说法是不可信的。 参议院银行委员会周三按党派路线投票，支持了美国总统特朗普的顾问米兰担任美联储理事的短期职 位，共和党人正迅速采取行动，以便在他下周参加利率制定会议前就位。 据一位熟悉计划的人士称，周三13票对11票的投票结果，使米兰有望在下周一于参议院全体会议上进行 可能的确认投票。目前尚不清楚是否能及时完成其余的确认程序，让米兰参加美联储9月议息会议。 一旦获得参议院确认，特朗普需要签署任命书，美联储也需要为米兰举行宣誓就职仪式。在最近的历史 中，从参议院确认到美联储宣誓就职的最快时间是四个工作日。 联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将于该周晚些时候，即9月16日和17日举行会议，外界已普遍预计，由 于就业增长疲软，该委员会将进行自去年12月以来的首次降息。 目前担任白宫经济顾问委员会主席的米兰告诉参议员们，他将以无薪休假的方式加入美联储，但目前尚 不清楚一旦临时职位结束，特朗普是会提名他担任一个完整的14年美联储任期，还是会要求他返回其白 宫职位。 一位熟悉确认程序的参议院共和党助手透露，米 ...

Core Points - Poland's Prime Minister Tusk has announced the intention to invoke NATO's Article 4 following alleged incursions of Russian drones into Polish airspace, labeling it an "act of aggression" [1] - A total of 19 drones reportedly violated Polish airspace, with some being shot down, prompting NATO's internal consultation process which could lead to collective action [1][2] - The incident is seen as a significant escalation in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, raising concerns about a potential direct confrontation between Russia and NATO [2] Summary by Sections NATO Article 4 Invocation - Tusk's request to activate NATO's Article 4 indicates a serious threat to Poland's territorial integrity and security, which could lead to collective defense discussions among NATO members [1] - The invocation of Article 4 has occurred seven times previously, including during the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 [1] Incident Details - The drones reportedly threatened a Polish city located approximately 40 miles from the Ukrainian border, marking a notable scale of incursion [2] - NATO's response included the activation of Germany's Patriot missile system and the deployment of an Italian AWACS aircraft, highlighting the alliance's readiness to address threats [1][2] Russian Response - Russia's Defense Ministry stated it does not intend to target Poland and claimed that the drones that entered Polish airspace were not launched from Russian territory [2] - Russian officials suggested that the drones were likely from Ukraine, as Poland has not provided evidence linking the drones to Russia [2][3] Ukrainian Perspective - Ukraine has been actively promoting the narrative of the threat posed by Russian drones, seeking to encourage NATO's direct involvement in the conflict [4] - Ukrainian President Zelensky noted the presence of eight drones and emphasized the need for a more integrated NATO air defense system to protect against such incursions [5] Political Reactions - U.S. lawmakers, particularly hawkish members, have called for immediate sanctions against Russia in response to the drone incursions, framing it as an act of war [5]

美国劳工统计局（BLS）周三公布的8月份生产者价格指数（PPI）报告显示批发通胀压力正在缓解，这降低了未来几个月消费者价格大幅上涨的可能性。 美国8月PPI年率录得2.6%，为6月以来新低，远低于预期的3.3%，前值从3.3%下修为3.1%；月率录得-0.1%，为四个月来的首次下滑，低于预期的0.3%，前 值从0.9%下修为0.7%。 美元指数短线下挫26点，最低至97.6。现货黄金短线上扬8美元，随后有所回落。非美货币对普涨，欧元兑美元短线上扬逾30点，最高至1.1729。美元兑日元 短线下挫40点，最低至147.11。美国股指期货短线上扬，标普500指数期货涨0.44%。 短期美国利率期货在PPI数据公布后上涨，交易员加大了对美联储降息的押注。美债集体反弹，美国10年期国债收益率跌0.6个基点，至4.068%。美国2年期 国债收益率下跌1.1个基点，至3.531%。美国30年期国债收益率上涨0.5个基点，至4.722%。 尽管特朗普的关税政策推高了企业成本，但上个月企业仍避免了大幅提价。此次PPI回落是在7月大幅上涨之后出现的，许多企业担心，在经济不确定性持续 影响消费决策的背景下，大幅加价可能会吓跑客户 ...

Group 1 - Wall Street expects the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to show rising inflation, but the employment market will dominate market narratives, leading to moderate stock market volatility predictions [1][2] - Citigroup's U.S. equity trading strategist Stuart Kaiser indicates that options traders anticipate a mild fluctuation of about 0.7% in the S&P 500 index (SPX) post-CPI report, lower than the average actual volatility of 0.9% on CPI release days over the past year [1][2] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at the September meeting, with potential further cuts in October and December, influenced by signs of economic growth threats from weak employment data [1][2] Group 2 - Economists predict that the core CPI, excluding food and energy, will rise by 0.3% month-over-month in August, maintaining a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [2][3] - JPMorgan's Andrew Tyler outlines various scenarios for the S&P 500's reaction based on core CPI readings, with probabilities assigned to different ranges of CPI increases [3] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model indicates a robust annualized GDP growth rate of 3% for Q3, despite a slight decline from Q2's 3.3%, contributing to a lower risk perception among traders in the coming weeks [3][4] Group 3 - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) remains below the critical level of 20, indicating that traders are not overly concerned about market volatility [4] - Citigroup's U.S. Economic Surprise Index is near its highest level since January, suggesting that positive economic surprises could complicate the Fed's inflation control efforts, potentially leading to prolonged high interest rates [5][6] - The employment market will be crucial in determining the Fed's actions; a rate cut in October may signal continued pressure on employment data and no unexpected inflation increases [6]