设计 | 甄 尤 美 撰文 | 吴 静 编辑 | 黄 大 路 回望十余年前，中国汽车市场那段高增长的草莽岁月，总 是会被人怀念。 那是 一个 供需彻底失衡、规则尚显粗放、红利俯拾皆是的年代， " 躺着赚钱 "并不是神话， 对于亲历者而言 ， 那无疑是 一段名副其实的 "黄金 岁月"。 如今，中国汽车行业正在 "上演"相反的剧本：市场从"水大鱼大"的增量蓝海，急转直入"刺刀见红"的存量血海。曾经躺着赚钱的日子一去不返， 在极致内卷下，中国汽车人每天面对的都是关于生死存亡的考题。 过去一年，在行业增收不增利的大背景下，销量目标成功达成的车企屈指可数。 倘若多年后回顾中国汽车市场， 2025 年一定会是一个重要的分水岭。 共探新营销，共创新可能 这一年，中国汽车行业躲不过的关键词之一就是效率。在新能源市场竞争加剧、亏损式增长难以为继的背景下，车企纷纷整合品牌向行业清晰传 递了其从 "拼规模"向"拼效率"的重大转变。更重要的是，未来汽车行业的竞争将更加依赖核心技术、供应链效率与品牌协同，而非盲目扩张。 它标志着中国汽车产业告别野蛮生长的 "上半场"，开启了以体系化能力、全球化视野和可可持续盈利为核心的高质量发展"下半 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future of the Chinese automotive industry, highlighting the intense competition, the need for innovation, and the challenges faced by companies in establishing true high-end brands [4][5]. Group 1: Industry Insights - The Chinese automotive industry is expected to undergo a "淘汰赛" (elimination race) for at least another decade, with predictions that only about 10 major companies will survive [7]. - Companies are urged to align with leading firms in the supply chain to ensure survival during this competitive phase [7]. - The industry is experiencing a significant push for innovation driven by both aspiration and frustration, particularly in the context of advanced driving technologies [12]. Group 2: Company Perspectives - BYD's chairman emphasizes the importance of maintaining a good reputation through technology rather than engaging in cutthroat competition, even if it means sacrificing short-term growth [9][10]. - Geely's vice president criticizes the trend of imitation in automotive design, calling for a return to unique value propositions and aesthetic integrity [14]. - The chairman of JAC Motors argues that brand value is built through consistent effort rather than merely through time, as evidenced by their recent success in the luxury car market [19]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market for electric vehicles is becoming increasingly competitive, with a notable shift towards high-end models, yet many brands still lack the necessary brand value and recognition [29]. - Tesla's CEO critiques traditional automakers for their struggles in the electric vehicle sector, suggesting that their failure to innovate will lead to their downfall [21][22]. - The automotive industry is at a critical juncture where the true competition will begin once electric vehicle penetration exceeds 50% [17]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The year 2025 is seen as a pivotal moment for growth in the automotive sector, focusing on comprehensive advancements in electrification, intelligence, and brand strength [16][17]. - Companies like Leap Motor are setting ambitious sales targets, aiming for a significant increase in production to compete on a global scale [31][32].

撰文 | 贾 可 编辑 | 黄 大 路 设计 | 甄 尤 美 没有想到，这次跨年对谈，从 2025 年 12 月 31 日晚上 10 点钟，几乎一直持续到 2026 年 1 月 1 日凌晨 2 点半。感谢吴伯凡、吴声和张晓亮诸位 兄弟，给了我将近四个半小时来度过一年的最后时刻，又迎来一年开始的时间。 跨年对谈临近尾声的时候，伯凡兄问我：这个点了，还有人看吗？我说：有人看的，观看人数还在增加。 不知道有多少人从头至尾看了 2025-2026 贾可跨年对谈。但是，亲爱的朋友们，在如今这样一个喜欢心灵鸡汤、喜欢宏大叙事、喜欢格言金句、 喜欢短平快的时代，我感谢你们陪伴我们的长篇围炉夜话，而我也相信你们一定从中得到了真正有用的东西。 就我自己而言，我把自 2017 年开始的一年一度跨年对谈，当作承前启后的年度总结。我们彼此之间的思想碰撞或语言交流，被视频和文字记录下 来，成为一种"年记"，作为自己没有虚度年华的一个重要证明。 共探新营销，共创新可能 实际上，我也想把这样的贾可跨年对谈当作元旦献词，献给 2026 年的《汽车商业评论》的读者们，献给轩辕同学的学员们，献给轩辕矩阵的朋友 们，或者说，献给所有辛勤工作的汽车 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant challenges faced by Tesla's 4680 battery supply chain, particularly highlighting the drastic reduction in contracts with suppliers like L&F, which saw a drop in contract value from 3.83 trillion KRW (approximately 26.7 billion USD) to 973 million KRW (about 6,776 USD), a decline of over 99% [3][5]. Group 1: Supplier Impact - L&F's stock price has dropped over 11% this week and has fallen 64% since announcing the contract with Tesla in early 2023 [5]. - LG Energy Solution, another key supplier, is facing a 30% reduction in capital expenditures due to a slowdown in global electric vehicle demand, particularly in the high-end electric pickup market [5]. - Panasonic, despite a 4.3 billion USD agreement with Tesla for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, has not yet received orders for Cybertruck 4680 battery units [5]. Group 2: Cybertruck Sales Performance - As of Q2 2025, Cybertruck's actual sales were only 5,000 units, achieving just 5% of the ambitious target of 500,000 units per year [9]. - The sales figures for the third quarter continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 62.6%, delivering only 5,385 units [10]. - Design flaws and high starting prices over 60,000 USD have deterred potential buyers, leading to a rapid depreciation in the vehicle's resale value [11]. Group 3: 4680 Battery Development Challenges - The 4680 battery, introduced in September 2020, was expected to revolutionize Tesla's battery technology but has faced significant production hurdles [14][17]. - The dry manufacturing process intended to reduce costs and environmental impact has proven difficult to scale, leading to production delays and technical challenges [19][20]. - In May 2024, Elon Musk issued an ultimatum to the 4680 battery development team to resolve cost and scalability issues by the end of the year [22]. Group 4: Future Prospects and Industry Opinions - Despite the challenges, Tesla is committed to overcoming the production bottlenecks of the 4680 battery by controlling the entire supply chain and optimizing production processes [25]. - Industry skepticism remains, with some experts predicting the failure of the 4680 battery project, citing Tesla's lack of expertise in battery manufacturing compared to competitors [27][28]. - The future of the 4680 battery project is uncertain, especially if it remains tied solely to the underperforming Cybertruck model [28].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent personnel changes and organizational adjustments within China FAW Group, highlighting the strategic responses to the evolving landscape of the Chinese automotive industry [12]. Group 1: Personnel Changes - Dong Xiuhui has been appointed as the new General Manager of FAW-Volkswagen, succeeding Chen Bin [3][16]. - Nie Qiang has taken over Dong Xiuhui's previous role as Deputy General Manager of FAW-Toyota [4]. - Wu Bilei will no longer serve as the Secretary of the Party Committee and Dean of the R&D Institute, focusing instead on engineering technology and supply chain management [6]. - Jiang Wenhu will lead the R&D Institute while continuing to oversee product planning, which is seen as beneficial for the Hongqi brand's next-generation products [15][14]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The leadership changes reflect a shift where group leaders no longer directly manage subsidiary companies, raising questions about balancing operational control and oversight [13]. - The appointment of Dong Xiuhui is viewed as both an opportunity and a challenge, as FAW-Volkswagen faces pressures on sales and profitability [20][22]. - The company plans to launch 11 new models tailored for the Chinese market in 2025, with 10 being electric vehicles, indicating a strong push towards electrification [20]. Group 3: Marketing and Organizational Transformation - FAW-Volkswagen aims to elevate customer operations to a strategic core, focusing on "value marketing" and restructuring its organizational framework [22][24]. - The company is initiating deep organizational changes to enhance its marketing system and service quality, which presents both opportunities and challenges [24]. - The establishment of Jetta Automotive Technology (Sichuan) Co., Ltd. aims to enhance local decision-making and operational flexibility, marking a new phase in localized operations [26]. Group 4: Export and International Strategy - FAW-Volkswagen has achieved a historic breakthrough by exporting vehicles to the Middle East, marking a significant step in its international expansion [26][28]. - The company is committed to making overseas operations a key growth area, which introduces new challenges in becoming a leading exporter of Chinese automotive joint ventures [28]. Group 5: Challenges Ahead - Dong Xiuhui faces significant challenges with the Audi business, as the brand plans to adjust its development strategy in China, requiring careful negotiation and long-term planning [29]. - The article emphasizes the importance of talent development and organizational vitality in supporting the company's strategic transformation [24][31].

设 计 | 甄尤 美 撰 文 | 丁晶 晶 编 辑 | 张 南 Editor's notes 编者按 最近几年来，以成就新汽车人为使命的轩辕同学和以"打造最强新汽车合作生态圈"为使命的世界新汽车生态协会，一直在努力促 进中国汽车产业全球化进程。 在连续进行北美考察、东南亚考察之后，2025年9月7日开始，贾可博士又率领轩辕新汽车产业欧洲北非考察团，对德国、波兰、 匈牙利、塞尔维亚、西班牙和摩洛哥进行了为期10天的商务访问。 共探新营销，共创新可能 期间，当地时间9月8日晚上，轩辕同学和世界新汽车生态协会在德国慕尼黑举行主题为"长风破浪"的2025轩辕新汽车之夜，一百 余位中外汽车人齐聚一堂（ 详见2025年9月9日《汽车商业评论》微信公众号文章《One night in Munich》 ）。 如今，在2025年即将结束之际，《汽车商业评论》发表此次考察相关报道，为奔波于全世界的中国汽车产业从业者提供一些有益 参考。今天刊发第一篇《到欧洲北非去之一|走进克拉科夫，感受波兰中欧新桥头堡》。敬请关注，并提出宝贵意见。 2022年9月，张家口金融控股入局，完成对京西重工 55.45% 的股权收购。历经十余年的沉淀，公 ...

Core Viewpoint - Leap Motor aims to become a world-class smart electric vehicle company, with a long-term sales target of 4 million units annually by 2030, and a goal to sell 1 million units by 2026 [4][9][30]. Group 1: Company Growth and Achievements - Leap Motor has delivered over 1.2 million vehicles and achieved nearly 600,000 annual sales, positioning itself as a leader among new car manufacturers in China [6][24]. - The company has maintained a high level of R&D personnel, with 80% of its workforce dedicated to research and development, allowing it to control 65% of vehicle costs through in-house production [16][24]. - Leap Motor's unique dual-driven model of "whole vehicle + Tier" has provided a 10% cost advantage over competitors in a price-sensitive market [16]. Group 2: Product Innovation and Strategy - The launch of the D series, including the D19 SUV and D99 MPV, reflects Leap Motor's commitment to redefining luxury in the automotive sector by offering high-quality features at competitive prices [20][22]. - The D19 features advanced technology, including a dual Qualcomm 8797 chip and a comprehensive suite of 28 high-precision sensors for enhanced driving assistance [20]. - Leap Motor emphasizes a "cost pricing" strategy, ensuring that its products deliver high value without the premium price tag typically associated with luxury vehicles [22][24]. Group 3: Global Expansion and Market Strategy - Leap Motor has established a presence in 35 countries and regions, with over 800 overseas sales and service outlets, marking its successful international expansion [26][28]. - The company has exported 60,000 vehicles in 2025, becoming the top seller among new car manufacturers in overseas markets [28]. - Leap Motor's partnership with Stellantis for global expansion represents a shift from traditional automotive strategies, leveraging established resources for rapid growth [26]. Group 4: Future Directions and Challenges - The company has outlined five strategic directions for the next decade, focusing on technological innovation, product development, ecosystem building, industrial clustering, and refined marketing management [31]. - Leap Motor acknowledges the challenges ahead in a competitive market, emphasizing the need for continuous improvement and innovation to achieve its ambitious sales targets [34].

Group 1 - The article discusses the emotional experiences of automotive industry leaders, highlighting their struggles and triumphs over the past decade, particularly in the context of the challenges faced in the electric vehicle sector [3][5][6] - Zhu Jiangming, founder and CEO of Leap Motor, reflects on the company's journey from obscurity to becoming a recognized potential player in the global market, emphasizing the importance of support from key individuals throughout this journey [6][8] - The narrative includes instances of emotional expressions from various industry leaders, such as BYD's Wang Chuanfu and others, showcasing the intense pressures and challenges they face in the competitive automotive landscape [12][13][19] Group 2 - The article highlights the significant financial challenges in the automotive industry, particularly the high costs associated with vehicle manufacturing and the difficulties in securing funding during tough market conditions [8][26] - It notes the increasing competition within the Chinese automotive market, with numerous new energy vehicle models being launched each year, leading to price wars and reduced profit margins for manufacturers [26][27] - The emotional responses from industry leaders are framed as a reflection of the immense pressure they face, with their personal reputations closely tied to the success or failure of their companies [28][29]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive marketing industry in China is at a crossroads, facing challenges from AI transformation, intense competition, and tightening regulatory environments, leading to difficulties in innovation, conversion, and compliance [3][4]. Group 1: Event Overview - The 12th Jin Xuan Award evaluation has entered its final phase of supplementary applications, initiated on November 20, ahead of the Guangzhou Auto Show [3][6]. - The award aims to recognize excellence in automotive marketing, with public voting scheduled for January 4, 2026, and the awards ceremony on January 23, 2026, in Beijing [6][8]. Group 2: Award Structure and Categories - The Jin Xuan Award adopts a dual-track system of "Committee Nomination + Enterprise Application," covering nearly 100 automotive brands and accumulating around 500 cases, with 68 cases passing the initial screening [6][8]. - The award includes four main categories: Creative Works, Marketing Cases, Individuals and Teams, and Public Welfare and Sustainable Development, with a total of 20 sub-items [8][10]. Group 3: Evaluation Criteria and Historical Context - The Creative Works category focuses on the evolution and breakthroughs in creative content, while the Marketing Cases category addresses personalized marketing, brand IP marketing, and AI marketing, among others [10][12]. - Since its inception in 2014, the Jin Xuan Award has recorded 1,005 cases and awarded 268 prizes, reflecting a 27% average award rate, indicating the rigorous nature of the selection process [10][15]. Group 4: Industry Impact and Value - The Jin Xuan Award serves as a comprehensive evaluation system for the automotive industry, evolving from focusing on brand and product innovation to encompassing the entire marketing ecosystem [13][16]. - Participation in the Jin Xuan Award provides companies with access to a valuable case database, enhancing brand influence and offering opportunities for resource connections and cross-industry collaborations [18][16].

Core Viewpoint - The core strategy of Chasing Technology is focused on the automotive sector, with significant attention from CEO Yu Hao, who has been monitoring the car manufacturing business closely since its inception in 2013. The company aims to achieve a sales target of over 100 billion yuan to compete with its rival, Roborock Technology [3][6]. Group 1: Company Strategy and Market Position - Chasing Technology has been preparing to enter the automotive market since 2013, but officially announced its entry in August 2025, coinciding with a highly competitive market environment [3][6]. - The company plans to adopt a light-asset operation model, outsourcing vehicle manufacturing to established manufacturers while focusing on product definition and differentiation [12][13]. - Chasing Technology aims to leverage its existing sales channels from its home appliance business to market its vehicles, utilizing a network of agents rather than direct sales [14][27]. Group 2: Product Development and Launch Plans - The company has developed two prototype vehicles based on the Ideal L9 chassis, with plans to unveil a luxury SUV and a high-end electric supercar at the CES 2026 [8][9]. - Chasing Technology has established six teams focused on different vehicle types, including SUVs and sedans, to explore various market segments simultaneously [20][22]. - The company has secured over 15 billion yuan in orders during its first strategic partner conference, indicating strong initial market interest [8]. Group 3: Financial and Operational Developments - Chasing Technology has acquired management rights to three domestic car factories and is in discussions with state-owned enterprises for financial support, indicating a strategic approach to funding and production [28][30]. - The company has signed agreements with two leading domestic insurance companies to cover global after-sales risks, enhancing its operational security for overseas markets [30]. - Current profit margins for Chasing Technology are reported at around 70% gross margin and 20%-30% net margin, providing a financial cushion for its automotive ventures [27].