文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 螺丝钉也做了美股、全球股票指数、美债指数的估值表。见文章下面图片。每周日会在公众号、以及「 今天几星 」小程序，每周定期更新。 1. 本周全球股票市场微涨微跌，波动不大。 本周美股全市场指数略微下跌，非美股市场整体上涨。 港股恒生指数本周上涨2.34%，领涨全球。 A股本周也整体上涨。 这周A股港股也都达到3点几星。 A股在上涨后也出现了一些牛市中后期的信号。 （1）1月12日出现了单日申购超百亿的股票基金。也是在同一天，主动优选、指数增强暂停申购，主动优选做调仓止盈。 这些都是前几轮牛市中后期常见的信号。 其实A股港股在今年都回到了3点几星，目前整体估值不太便宜。 （2）14日三大交易所宣布调整融资保证金比例，从80%提升到100%。 这个说的是抑制上杠杆投资A股。2015年牛市的时候，也有过类似的操作。 （3）1月14-16日，场内规模最大的几只ETF出现单日大额资金净流出。 金额达到数百亿，疑似机构等分批止盈。 机构投资者在2024年5点几星的时候，买入了上万亿的指数基金。 当指数大幅上涨、估值变高后，也会有相应的减仓。 市场还有少量低估品种，做定投OK，但不太适 ...

Group 1 - The core concept of fund advisory is to address the issue where funds make profits but investors do not [4] - Fund advisory services aim to help investors achieve better returns through professional guidance [5] - The article promotes a free course on fund advisory, providing additional resources like course notes and mind maps for efficient learning [5][7] Group 2 - The concentration of holdings in a fund refers to the proportion of the top 10 holdings relative to the fund's net asset value [10] - A concentrated portfolio can lead to higher volatility, while a diversified portfolio tends to have lower volatility, aligning more closely with market fluctuations [11] - Research by investment expert Burton Malkiel indicates that the number of stocks in a portfolio inversely correlates with risk, with 50 stocks generally aligning risk with the overall market [12][15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and psychological hurdles investors face during market fluctuations, particularly during the transition from bear to bull markets, emphasizing the importance of patience and experience in investment strategies [2][3][6]. Group 1: Market Performance and Investor Behavior - The market experienced significant growth from a low of 5.9 stars to around 3.x stars by early January 2026, indicating a recovery phase where pessimistic sentiments decreased [3]. - Many investors began to realize profits during the market upturn in 2025, but the initial recovery phase was challenging as investors often felt compelled to sell once they broke even [4][5]. - By the end of Q2 2025, a dense recovery phase was noted, with many investors seeing average returns increase as the market continued to rise in Q3 [5]. Group 2: Investor Challenges and Learning - Investors faced two main tests: the initial recovery from losses and the temptation to sell upon breaking even, which many failed to navigate successfully [4][6]. - Research indicated that approximately 36.6% of fund investors were still at a loss by the end of Q3 2025, highlighting the prevalence of losses despite overall market gains [6]. - Investors who endured the bear market from 2022 to 2026 gained valuable experience, understanding the risks of market volatility and the benefits of holding undervalued investments for the long term [7].

想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 指数基金 」领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 ◆◆◆ #螺丝钉小知识 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 很多投资者都是从投资指数基金开始自己的投资之路的。 但是怎样投资指数基金，才能获得好收益？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，介绍了指数基金的投资技巧。 苹果。 分红前是一棵树+树上的苹果。分红后还 是一棵树+摘下来的苹果。 确实在分红前后,都是一棵树+苹果。 但如果能长期分红，那就可以收获源源不 断的果实。 // 银行螺丝钉 基金分红和不分红，有什么差别呢? 指数基金持有股票,自然也可以收到成分 股的分红,收到后会归入到基金净值中, 不会被其余公司挪作它用。 有的指数基金攒一攒,会以基金分红的形 式分给基金投资者。 有朋友问，分红有意义吗? 例如1.05元净值的基金，分红每份0.05 元，分红后，净值变成1元，外加0.05元的 现金。 这不是左手倒右手么? (1) 可以理解为有一棵苹果树，结满了 最终积累的分红，甚至超过本金的总额。 例如海外有一些指数基金,经过几十年分 红、历年分红已经超过净值本身很多。 (2) ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "economic moats" as proposed by Warren Buffett, emphasizing the importance of competitive advantages for companies to achieve long-term profitability and returns for investors [4][5]. Summary by Sections Introduction to Economic Moats - The article introduces a new investment book titled "Investment Moats," which elaborates on Buffett's investment philosophy regarding economic moats [2]. Definition and Importance of Economic Moats - Economic moats are defined as competitive advantages that allow companies to maintain profitability over time, thus providing returns to investors [4]. Characteristics of Companies with Economic Moats - Companies that possess economic moats typically have stable and significant profits, distinguishing them from early-stage or startup companies [5]. Avoiding Market Saturation - Economic moats help companies avoid "involution," where excessive competition leads to homogenization and price wars, ultimately resulting in losses [6][7]. Types of Economic Moats 1. **Scale Advantage**: Companies like BlackRock and Vanguard dominate the index fund market, controlling over 80% of the global market share, benefiting from lower management fees due to their scale [10][12][14]. 2. **Network Effects**: The value of networks increases with the number of users, making it difficult for new entrants to compete against established players like the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [16][20]. 3. **Brand Advantage**: Strong brands in consumer and pharmaceutical sectors create recognition and loyalty, making it hard for new brands to penetrate the market [22][27]. 4. **Switching Costs**: High switching costs, as seen with integrated product ecosystems like Apple's, make it challenging for customers to change to competitors [28][32]. 5. **Resource Advantage**: Companies with access to low-cost resources, such as mining operations, have a competitive edge in their industries [33]. Conclusion - Companies need unique advantages that are not easily replicable to protect their profits and ensure sustained revenue generation. Financially, companies with economic moats often exhibit high gross margins and long-term return on equity (ROE) levels of 15% or higher [36][37].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 川从机, 达州同伯关山低谷易珪胖, 疋取 常见的一种卖出方式。 第二种卖出的逻辑，就是基本面恶化。 比如前面说的这个球队，可能之前一个球 员表现的挺好的,但球员短期放纵自我, 表现大幅下滑，基本面恶化了。 那这个时候,不可能让这个球员再在球场 上首发了，可能就会把他替下来，甚至最 后把他开除掉也有可能。 第三种逻辑，是有更好的品种可以替代。 比如说,我们手头上有5个球员，但是自 己也会关注顶级球员名单，当这些顶级的 球员价格比较便宜的时候，我们就可以买 入进来。 户户人 == 1 兰心 人 基本面恶化,在基金上并不是很常见，主 要出现在个股上。 风险提示 ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 本文仅为信息分享，不构成任何投资建议。市场有风险，投资需谨慎 。 基金投资组合策略过往业绩并不预示其未来表现 为其他客户创造的收益并不构成业绩表现的保证 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of diversifying investments across both RMB and foreign currency assets, as well as between equity and bond assets, highlighting the role of US dollar bond funds in this strategy [2] - It discusses the current market conditions, indicating that as of early January 2026, the market has returned to a "3-star" rating, suggesting that many investment options are now fairly valued, with fewer undervalued opportunities available [5] - The article suggests that in a "3-star" environment, investors should consider low-volatility assets for transition, such as fixed income products with lower equity exposure, like a 365-day combination [5][6] Group 2 - It recommends a global multi-asset allocation strategy, such as an all-weather portfolio, which may not perform exceptionally well during bull markets but offers stability when stock markets are overvalued [6][7] - Short-duration bond funds are highlighted as a suitable investment option, especially given the current 10-year government bond yield of 1.8%-1.9%, which makes long-term pure bond investments less attractive [8] - The article notes that the A-share market is likely to experience multiple bull and bear cycles over the next 30 years, with an average of 5-6 opportunities arising, thus indicating that there will always be investment options available [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market, highlighting signals of a potential late-stage bull market and the behavior of institutional investors regarding ETF investments. Group 1: Market Overview - The overall market experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index showing more significant drops compared to small and mid-cap stocks [2] - Both value and growth styles saw declines, while Hong Kong stocks opened higher but closed slightly down, mirroring A-share volatility [2] Group 2: Bull Market Signals - Several signals indicating a late-stage bull market have emerged, including a single-day subscription volume for stock funds reaching 100 billion and increased margin requirements from major exchanges [3] - On Thursday, the largest ETF, the CSI 300 ETF (510300), saw a net outflow of approximately 20 billion, marking the largest single-day outflow since 2012 [4][5] Group 3: ETF Market Status - The domestic ETF market has grown rapidly, with total ETF assets increasing from less than 1 trillion to 6 trillion by early 2026 [8] - Institutional investors, rather than retail investors, currently dominate the index fund market, with entities like state-owned enterprises, insurance companies, and pension funds being the primary investors [11][12] Group 4: Institutional Investor Behavior - In the 2024-2025 period, state-owned entities significantly increased their holdings in ETFs during market dips, typically buying at around 5-star ratings [13][14] - Recently, as the market has surged, some ETFs have begun to experience substantial net outflows, suggesting that institutions may be taking profits [17][18] Group 5: Implications for Investors - Current market signals indicate that the market is becoming less attractive for new investments, with caution advised for chasing high prices [30][31] - Investors who have already made profits should consider gradual profit-taking strategies as the market rises [36][37] Group 6: Hong Kong Market Valuation - The article provides a summary of the valuation of Hong Kong indices, indicating that the Hong Kong market has also returned to a 3-star rating [38] - A detailed valuation table for various indices is included for reference [39] Group 7: New Book Release - The article announces the pre-sale of a new book titled "Dividend Index Fund Investment Guide," which aims to help investors understand dividend index funds better [41][42]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the cyclical nature of the stock market, highlighting three main cycles: profit growth, funding conditions, and investor sentiment [2][3][5][6][8] - The first cycle is profit growth, where listed companies experienced significant profit growth of over 20% during certain periods, but stagnated in 2022-2023 due to economic downturns [2] - The second cycle relates to funding conditions, which can be observed through interest rate fluctuations, typically occurring in 3-5 year cycles, affecting the flow of capital into higher-yielding investments [3][5] - The third cycle is the sentiment cycle, characterized by periods of extreme fear and greed among investors, which is the shortest of the three cycles [6][7] - Understanding these cycles helps explain the recurring nature of bull and bear markets, reinforcing the idea that long-term investment opportunities exist despite short-term challenges [8]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 大部分投资者对股票指数基金都耳熟能详，但是对债券指数基金知之甚少。债券指数基金该如何投资？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，介绍了债券指数基金的投资方法。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 债券 」领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 ◆◆◆ 何解决呢? 定投有一个很好的作用，可以在下跌的过 程中降低成本。 如果我们手里已经积累了大量的存量资 产，那么，新投入的资金，相比存量资产 占比很小。 这个时候，主要的涨跌就是由存量资产带 来的，新投入的资金，影响就不大了。 这就是钝化效应。 那么，钝化效应会发生在什么时候呢? 通常来说,如果你单次定投的资金量,是 你现在持有的基金总市值的5%以下,那 就接近出现钝化效应了。 换句话说,如果每个月定投同样的钱,那 么,通常来说,定投超过20个月之后,钝 化效应就开始出现了。 面对「钝化效应」，我们可以通过两个方 法解决。 (1) 「定期不定额」定投 我们可以提高定投的金额,也就是市场越 下跌，买入越多。 这就是「定期不定额」定投方法的原理。 风险提示 本文仅为信息分享，不构成任何投 ...