Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets, highlighting the strength of dividend and value styles, while noting the volatility and shifts in market trends over the past months [1][3][5][6][7][8]. Market Performance - The A-share market opened lower but rebounded to close positively, returning to a rating of 3.8 stars [1]. - The overall market showed strength, with large-cap stocks rising significantly while small-cap stocks experienced minor gains [4]. - The dividend and value styles were particularly strong today, with the Shanghai Dividend Index rising by 3% [5][6]. - The A-share market has seen a 50-60% increase since September 2024, with notable surges occurring in three distinct phases [18][20][22]. Market Trends - The first phase of the market surge occurred in the last two weeks of September 2024, with a rise of over 40%, marking the fastest increase in the last decade [20]. - The second phase saw significant growth in the growth style during the third quarter of 2025, with the ChiNext Index achieving a 50% increase in a single quarter [22][23]. - The third phase involved a rally in mid-cap stocks from December 2025 to January 2026, with the CSI 2000 and CSI 1000 indices reaching overvalued levels [26][27]. - Overall, the significant gains in the A-share market were concentrated in approximately 7% of trading days, which contributed to the majority of market returns [28][30]. Investment Philosophy - During periods of market volatility, investors may find it challenging to manage their emotions. The article emphasizes a value investment approach, suggesting that buying stocks equates to purchasing a company [32]. - The concept of holding a fund is likened to owning a "mini conglomerate," which generates profits without requiring active management from the investor [34][36]. - The article encourages investors to adopt a long-term perspective, particularly during bear markets, and to focus on companies that continue to operate and generate profits [40]. New Publication - A new book titled "Dividend Index Fund Investment Guide" has been released, which aims to help investors better understand dividend index funds, a rapidly growing category in recent years [41].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 是我们日常生活中必不可少的消费品。 主要是食品饮料，包括酒、乳制品、肉制品等。 有朋友问，消费有哪些细分行业，长期表现如何？ 过去20年，消费行业经历了哪些牛 熊市 ？ 为啥这轮 牛市 中消费比较低迷，之后还会起来吗？ 投资消费行业，需要注意哪些？ 针对大家的这些疑问，螺丝钉也通过直播课，进行了讲解。 长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 0127 」即可观看直播回放。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦～） PS：直播内容仅为市场知识分享，不构成投资建议。 消费行业，长期表现较好 消费行业，跟投资者的日常生活密切相关，也是最知名的行业。 一般提到消费行业，会有两种：必需消费、可选消费。 （1）必需消费 （2）可选消费 是提高我们生活质量的消费品。 主要是汽车、家电、传媒娱乐等。 另外，消费行业和一些策略进行叠加，也可以组成新的指数。 比如，消费行业和红利策略进行叠加，组成了消费红利指数。 下面这张图，汇总了消费行业的常见指数，方便大家更加直观地了解消费行业的分类、具体情况等。 长期来看，消费行业的表现不错。 如下是11个一级行业从2004年年底以来的表现 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of smart investment strategies for mutual fund regular investment, particularly for those who prefer a more hands-off approach [2][3] - It suggests that preparation and a well-defined investment plan are crucial before starting a regular investment in funds [2] - The article introduces four different methods for regular investment, encouraging readers to find the one that best suits their needs and to consider strategies for profit-taking [2] Group 2 - The article discusses the sources of returns for dividend index funds, highlighting four main aspects: profit growth, valuation improvement, dividends, and rule optimization [7][8][10][11] - Profit growth is identified as the primary driver of returns, with stable profit growth in the dividend index from 2022 to 2025 being a key factor for better performance [7] - Valuation improvement is noted as a secondary source of returns, where buying undervalued stocks can lead to gains when valuations rise [8] - Dividends play a significant role in the returns of dividend and value-oriented funds, with an increase in dividend payout ratios among A-share companies over recent years [10] - The optimization of index rules has also contributed to improved performance and reduced volatility in dividend indices [11]

Core Viewpoint - The significant appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar in the past year is primarily attributed to the US interest rate cuts, which have narrowed the interest rate differential between the US dollar and the Renminbi, favoring the latter's appreciation [7][4]. Group 1: Currency Trends - The Renminbi has appreciated significantly against the US dollar, especially noticeable since the second half of 2025 [4][3]. - The exchange rate of the US dollar against the Renminbi has decreased from above 7.2 at the beginning of 2025 to around 7 as of January 2026 [5]. Group 2: Impact of US Interest Rates - The decline in US interest rates typically leads to a depreciation of the US dollar against other currencies, as seen during the current interest rate cut cycle that began in September 2024 [16][15]. - The US dollar index, which reflects the dollar's strength against a basket of currencies, tends to rise during interest rate hikes and fall during cuts [11][13]. Group 3: Effects on Various Markets - Rising US interest rates generally lead to a bear market in bonds, as higher rates decrease bond values [18]. - The current interest rate cut cycle has resulted in a bullish trend for US bond index funds since September 2024 [19]. - The decline in US interest rates has improved market liquidity, benefiting US stocks, although the appreciation of the dollar may have some adverse effects on dollar-denominated assets [22][24]. Group 4: Opportunities from Rate and Currency Fluctuations - Short-term fluctuations in interest rates and exchange rates can create opportunities for undervalued buying and overvalued selling in the market [31]. - The cyclical nature of interest rates and exchange rates suggests that they can provide strategic entry and exit points for investments [36][35]. Group 5: Summary of Findings - The appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar is linked to the US's interest rate cuts, which have improved liquidity in the market and positively impacted US bonds, stocks, and Renminbi-denominated assets [37].

Core Viewpoint - The market showed a rebound today, with the overall index rising after a previous decline, indicating a potential recovery phase in the market [1][4]. Market Performance - The market opened lower but closed higher, returning to a 3.9 star rating [2]. - The small and medium-cap indices, which had previously dropped significantly, saw a notable increase today [4]. - The value style had a strong performance in the past two weeks but has recently corrected, with a slight uptick today [6]. - Growth styles, such as the ChiNext, experienced gains today [7]. - The Hong Kong stock market also saw a slight increase, contrasting with the A-share market [8][9]. Investment Strategies - The active and index combination remains at normal valuation, leading to a pause in subscription [3]. - Some indices have reached high valuation levels, presenting potential profit-taking opportunities [19]. - The company has initiated a phased profit-taking strategy for certain funds, selling 10% of holdings weekly to gradually realize gains [20][22][24]. - Specific funds, such as the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 Low Volatility, have shown significant returns, with profit-taking executed at approximately 71% to 90% gains [22][24]. Fund Management - The company has introduced a new fee structure for advisory services, capping annual fees at 360 yuan regardless of the number of advisory combinations held [19]. - The company continues to promote personal pension fund investments, highlighting the importance of regular contributions for retirement planning [19][16]. Valuation Insights - A valuation table was provided, indicating various indices' price-to-earnings ratios, dividend yields, and return on equity, which can guide investment decisions [17][30]. - The valuation table categorizes indices into different investment stages, with green indicating undervalued, yellow for normal, and red for overvalued [34].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 而金融终端中，通常对所有指数是用总 市值加权，即哪个股票总市值大，计算 的时候分配比例高。 但是红利指数，大多数使用的是股息率 加权，也就是哪个股票股息率高，计算 的时候分配比例高。 这两种计算方式，最大的差异，在银行 股下。 值数据。 例如在中证红利指数中，工商银行占比 在1%上下，比例并不高。中证红利前十 大重仓股,都没有银行。这是按照股息 率加权，计算出来的比例。 正常情况下，计算红利指数市盈率估值 的时候，工商银行在计算中占比就在1% 的权重。 但是从总市值上，工商银行达到2.6万 亿，是一个庞然大物。按总市值计算， 工商银行这一家,就能占到10%以上。 再加上中国银行、农业银行、交通银行 等等，银行股按总市值，将会达到中证 红利一半以上比例。 此时计算出来市盈率，会向着银行股估 值靠拢，大约8倍多市盈率。 这是大家看到大多数平台，红利指数估 值的数据来源。 但实际上,中证红利中，金融行业总占 比在23%，跟沪深300中金融行业占比 相近（21%），并没有太高。按照真实 持有股票比例,算出来的市盈率,在10 倍上下。 两者差距还比较大。 这个问题在2016-20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the design of a "Golden Bull and Bear Signal Board" by the company, which helps assess the valuation of gold, similar to stock market indicators. The board is updated regularly to provide insights into gold price trends [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - The price of gold is primarily referenced through Shanghai Gold in mainland China and London Gold internationally, with their movements closely related but affected by exchange rate fluctuations [12][13]. - Historical data shows that in February 2026, gold prices significantly dropped to a 1.2-star rating, while in 2022, gold was undervalued at over 4 stars. The period from 2011 to 2016 marked a prolonged bear market for gold, with a recovery starting in 2017 [15]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The main factors affecting gold prices include: 1. **US Dollar**: The actual interest rate of the dollar, calculated as nominal interest rate minus inflation rate, significantly influences gold prices. A decrease in the actual interest rate typically leads to higher gold prices, while an increase results in lower prices [18]. 2. **Mining Costs**: As of this year, the cost of gold mining is around $1600 per ounce, which has risen due to inflation and labor costs. If gold prices fall below mining costs, it presents a buying opportunity [23][24]. 3. **Geopolitical Risks**: Events such as regional conflicts and financial crises can drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to price increases [25][26]. Group 3: Gold Volatility and Returns - Gold exhibits a volatility rate of approximately 40% and a maximum drawdown of around 44%, comparable to a mixed fund with a 60-70% stock allocation [29]. - Since 2012, the annualized return for Shanghai Gold is about 8.18%, while the annualized return for the pure bond index is approximately 4.31%, and the total return index for the CSI All Share is around 8.39% [33]. Group 4: Investment Options in Gold - Investors can choose between gold funds and physical gold. Gold funds typically yield slightly lower returns than physical gold due to management fees and cash reserves [38][39]. - Physical gold can be purchased in various forms, including investment bars, panda coins, and jewelry, each with different pricing structures and potential for counterfeit risks [42][44][47].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that different stock markets do not move in unison, and understanding multiple markets can provide investors with more opportunities [2][3] - Global investment can significantly reduce volatility risk, allowing investors to share in the long-term growth of global markets [2] - A free course is offered to teach methods for investing in global stock markets through index funds, along with supplementary materials like course notes and mind maps for efficient learning [2][3] Group 2 - The article discusses the emotional impact of short-term stock price fluctuations, suggesting that investors should shift their focus away from daily price movements [5] - It highlights that over the past decade, approximately 47% of trading days in the A-share market experienced declines, while 53% saw increases, indicating that most daily fluctuations are ineffective and cancel each other out [5] - The focus should be on the underlying assets' profitability rather than short-term price changes, as quality assets will drive prices upward over time [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant declines in gold and silver prices have led to increased volatility in global stock markets, with concerns about high valuations and potential changes in U.S. monetary policy impacting investor sentiment [1][4][24]. Group 1: Market Movements - London gold experienced a maximum drawdown of 21%, while silver saw a maximum drawdown of 41% [1]. - The global stock market exhibited considerable fluctuations due to the sharp decline in commodity prices [4][27]. - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks faced substantial declines, with the market closing around the 4.00 star level [5][12]. Group 2: Valuation Concerns - Gold and silver were previously identified as overvalued, with recent price drops marking the fastest decline in 40 years [2][3]. - The high valuations of commodities were driven by significant inflows of capital, leading to the highest valuation levels in 30 years [20]. - The market is currently experiencing a rotation, with some sectors like consumer goods showing resilience while others, particularly small-cap stocks, are underperforming [11][36]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The volatility in the markets is partly attributed to concerns over the potential for the Federal Reserve to slow down interest rate cuts, which could tighten global liquidity [24][29]. - The recent appointment of a hawkish Federal Reserve nominee has heightened these concerns [23]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The company has paused subscriptions for actively managed and enhanced index products to mitigate risks associated with chasing high valuations [14][40]. - Investors are advised to manage their exposure to high-valuation assets and consider taking profits where appropriate [42]. - Maintaining a balanced portfolio with a focus on low-valuation assets is recommended, with a suggested limit of 15-20% exposure to any single industry [44].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding investment strategies, particularly focusing on dividend index funds and their growing popularity among investors due to low interest rates on savings accounts [5]. Summary by Sections New Book Release - A new book titled "Dividend Index Fund Investment Guide" has been released, aimed at helping investors understand the high dividend strategy of dividend index funds, which have seen rapid growth in recent years [5]. Investment Advisory Updates - The investment advisory service has introduced new features, including a cap on annual advisory fees and the suspension of stock fund subscriptions to avoid buying at high prices. An "automatic profit-taking" feature has also been launched to simplify the profit-taking process for investors [7]. Market Insights - The year 2025 was noted as the best year for A-shares and H-shares in the past five years, with both markets rising over 20%. Approximately 88.65% of the advisory service's clients were in a profitable position by the end of 2025 [11]. Gold and Market Signals - The article discusses the introduction of a "Gold Star Rating" and a "Gold Bull-Bear Signal Board" to help investors evaluate gold assets. It also mentions that the stock market is currently at a valuation of around 3.8-3.9 stars, indicating that most stocks are either fairly valued or overvalued, with few undervalued options available [13][14]. Index Classification - An "Index Map" has been created to categorize commonly used indices, including broad-based, strategy, industry, thematic, and overseas indices, providing details on stock codes, selection rules, and average market capitalizations [14]. Fund Manager Insights - The article summarizes insights from fund managers based on the 2025 Q4 reports, categorizing them into four styles: deep value, growth value, balanced, and growth. This provides a comprehensive view of their investment strategies and market outlooks [15][16]. Investment Strategies - The article highlights the effectiveness of dividend strategies in the A-share market, noting that while they can underperform during growth market phases, they are generally reliable during undervalued periods. It emphasizes the importance of buying undervalued stocks and holding for dividends as the best investment approach for dividend index funds [18][22].