今天大盘整体微跌，波动不大，还在3.8星。 中证全指下跌0.18%。 沪深300等大盘股比较强势，整体上涨。 中小盘股下跌。 这两天价值风格比较强势。 现金流、红利等指数连续上涨。 成长风格下跌，科创50今天下跌近3%。 港股今天波动不大。 港股红利类指数连续上涨。 像恒生红利低波动等指数，2025、2026年上涨幅度都比较明显。 港股红利中，像能源、周期股的占比高一些，遇到这两年周期股大年，表现也比较强。 螺丝钉也汇总了红利类指数的估值，见文章下方图片。 最近港股红利强势上涨，创下新高，部分港股红利类指数也回到了正常估值。 今天最亮眼的是消费类指数。 白酒指数几乎涨停，消费类指数大幅上涨。 本周二直播课，螺丝钉刚介绍了消费指数，这个时间点也是没谁了··· 点击查看： 消费行业低迷，原因为何，未来估值还会起来吗？｜第431期直播回放 不过截止到2025年3季度，消费还没有出现明显的基本面拐点。 这也是其估值比较低的原因。 消费短期里还会有波动，未来当基本面出现明确拐点，上市公司盈利同比恢复增长，那消费这轮的低迷也就走出来了。 投资这类品种需要有足够耐心。同时单个行业主题，注意控制好比例在15-20%以内。 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an overview of the updated active fund manager pool information for the 2025 Q4 reports, highlighting key metrics such as investment style, stock ratio, industry preference, turnover rate, valuation of major holdings, concentration of holdings, and fund size [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Fund Manager Information - The article includes a comprehensive list of fund managers categorized by investment style, such as deep value, growth, and balanced strategies, along with their respective fund names and codes [4][5][10][11]. Investment Style - Investment styles are crucial as they reflect the types of stocks held by the funds. The article notes that different styles have their strong and weak phases, with historical data showing a rotation between value and growth styles over the years [36][40]. Industry Preference - Fund managers typically focus on specific industries where they have expertise. The article emphasizes the importance of understanding these preferences to gauge potential performance [48][50]. Stock Ratio - The article discusses the stock ratio, indicating that active funds usually maintain a stock ratio around 85% to 90%, which affects the fund's volatility [45][46]. Concentration of Holdings - The concentration of holdings, defined as the proportion of the top ten stocks in the fund's net assets, is highlighted as a significant factor influencing fund volatility [53]. Valuation of Major Holdings - The article mentions that the valuation of major holdings is assessed based on the top ten stocks disclosed in the fund's reports, which may not always reflect real-time adjustments made by fund managers [56][58]. Turnover Rate - The turnover rate, which indicates how frequently stocks are bought and sold within the fund, is discussed. A turnover rate below 200% is considered low for active funds [59][60]. Fund Size - The size of the fund is noted as a critical factor, with larger funds potentially facing challenges in achieving excess returns due to management complexities [62][64]. Fund Manager's Perspective - The article emphasizes the importance of the fund manager's insights, which can provide valuable context regarding past performance and future market outlooks [70][74].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an overview of fund managers' perspectives and data from their Q4 2025 reports, highlighting different investment styles and strategies across various funds [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Styles - Fund managers are categorized into different investment styles, including deep value, growth value, and balanced styles, each with distinct characteristics and strategies [7][26]. - Deep value style focuses on low valuation metrics such as low P/E and P/B ratios, primarily investing in sectors like finance, real estate, and energy [9][10]. - Growth value style emphasizes companies with strong profitability and cash flow, often holding stocks for the long term, with notable managers like Zhang Kun representing this style [15][16]. - Balanced style, represented by Peter Lynch, seeks a combination of growth and valuation, looking for stocks that offer good value [27][28]. Group 2: Fund Manager Insights - Fund managers provided insights on market conditions and future expectations, with some expressing optimism about the recovery of consumer demand and housing prices [19][20]. - Adjustments in fund allocations were noted, with some managers reducing exposure to underperforming sectors while increasing investments in technology and energy-related companies [20][23]. - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious yet optimistic outlook for 2026, with expectations of improved economic conditions and potential investment opportunities in various sectors [41][54]. Group 3: Sector Focus - Specific sectors highlighted include AI, renewable energy, and consumer goods, with managers emphasizing the importance of selecting companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential [52][59]. - The article notes a trend towards increasing allocations in sectors like chemicals and machinery, reflecting a structural adjustment in response to market conditions [21][23]. - Fund managers are also paying attention to the impact of macroeconomic factors, such as inflation and government policies, on investment strategies [41][56].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 大部分投资者对股票指数基金都耳熟能详，但是对债券指数基金知之甚少。债券指数基金该如何投资？ 有朋友问，目前A股跟全球股票市场，估 值差距多大呢? 在2024年5.9星的时候，A股港股估值比 全球市场低很多，相差近50%。 不过从2024年5.9星以来，A股港股上涨 50%-60%，比同期全球股票市场上涨高 约1倍，估值上A股港股也快速提升。 全球股票指数，2026年1月中旬达到大 约23.3倍市盈率。 A股中证全指估值已经跟此相接近。 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，介绍了债券指数基金的投资方法。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 债券 」领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 ◆◆◆ A股港股继续上涨，估值跟全球还 差多少呢? A股港股在2026年1月都回到了3点几 星，整体估值不太便宜了。 人民币资产被大幅低估的时间段也已经 过去了。 不过A股港股倒不至于像2015年、2007 年1星级时那样，估值大幅超过全球市场 平均。目前只是回到了跟全球市场平均 差不多的水平上。 随着市场上涨，对大涨、估值偏高的品 种，逐渐做好分 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘整体微涨，波动不大，截止到收盘，还在3.8星。 港股也整体上涨。 今天港股涨幅比A股还高。 沪深300、中证500等大中盘股上涨。 中证500今天上涨后，也达到了高估。 价值风格大幅上涨。 现金流指数、红利类指数大幅上涨。 这两周价值风格品种也开始补涨了。 低估品种总会有上涨的阶段～ 前两周咱们主动优选做了调仓，止盈了部分高估的成长风格，加仓了价值风格。 刚好匹配最近的市场风格。 今天几个组合整体上涨，主动、指数、 月薪宝 、 365 等都创下历史新高。 恒生指数上涨超2%。 恒生红利低波、港股科技等都上涨明显。 港股中很多也属于人民币类资产，只不过欧美投资者占比高一些。 一般老外看好人民币资产，考虑港股会多一些。 1. 去年螺丝钉也介绍过，这轮牛市的风格，跟2013-2017年比较相似。 （1）2013年，A股上市公司盈利下滑，A股整体也在5点几星的熊市。 （2）2014年下半年，开始了各种刺激政策。人民币利率也大幅下降。 在利率大幅下降的背景下，市场开始大幅上涨。 第一波领涨的品种是证券。 （3）2015年上半年，市场风格切换。第二波领涨的品种，变成了小盘、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recognition of various stock indices by institutional investors and their suitability for ordinary investors, particularly beginners. It emphasizes the importance of diversified allocation and rebalancing in index investing [1]. Group 1: Common Stock Index Guidance - The rapid growth of index funds is noted, with projections indicating that by 2025, the total scale of index funds will exceed 5.5 trillion, making it the largest type of stock fund in China [4]. - The introduction of new indices, such as the China Securities A500 index fund launched in September 2024, which reached several hundred billion in scale within just over a year, highlights the increasing variety of index funds available [5]. - The article identifies common stock index guidance suitable for both institutional and ordinary investors, focusing on key indices that can serve as investment references [7][8]. Group 2: Public Fund Performance Benchmark Library - The establishment of a standardized "benchmark library" for public funds aims to address issues of vague performance benchmarks and inconsistent investment strategies among funds [12]. - The current public fund performance benchmark library includes a variety of stock indices, with 69 indices in the first category and 72 in the second category, focusing on strong market representation and high recognition [14]. - The first category includes widely recognized indices such as the CSI 300 and the CSI 500, which are essential for fund managers in developing actively managed funds [14][15]. Group 3: Personal Pension Accounts - The introduction of the personal pension system in 2022 allows individuals to voluntarily open accounts with a maximum annual contribution of 12,000 yuan, which can be deducted from taxable income [17]. - By the end of 2025, the number of pension index funds will expand to 91, covering 16 mainstream indices, indicating a growing focus on retirement investment options [19]. - The first batch of pension index funds includes 85 funds, emphasizing the importance of risk control for new investors [21]. Group 4: Constant Proportion Stock-Bond Indices - Constant proportion stock-bond indices are designed to maintain a fixed ratio of stocks and bonds, with periodic rebalancing to adhere to this ratio [23]. - These indices typically have a higher allocation to bonds, often exceeding 70%, and are characterized by a target risk strategy [28]. - The introduction of these indices aligns with the trend of multi-asset investment strategies, which may include stocks, bonds, and potentially other assets like gold in the future [24]. Group 5: Insurance Company Risk Factor Adjustments - In December 2025, regulatory adjustments reduced the risk factors for insurance companies investing in indices like the CSI 300 and the low-volatility dividend index, allowing for more capital to be allocated to these assets [32]. - The reduction in risk factors from 0.3 to 0.27 for the CSI 300 means that insurance companies can free up more funds for investment, enhancing their capacity to invest in stable assets [38][39]. - The implications of these adjustments are significant for ordinary investors, as they reflect a conservative investment approach focused on long-term value appreciation with manageable volatility [40]. Group 6: Suitable Indices for Beginner Investors - The article identifies the most frequently referenced indices in various guidance categories as suitable for beginner investors, primarily focusing on broad-based indices like the CSI 300 and CSI 500 [67]. - The recommended investment strategy for beginners includes a combination of broad-based indices and growth/value strategies, such as the leading strategy and dividend strategy [68]. - The article suggests that new investors can benefit from diversified exposure to both growth and value styles, which can enhance returns while managing risk [45].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing rapid style changes, with large-cap stocks and small-cap stocks alternating in performance, indicating a limited pool of market funds [3][4][5][6]. Market Performance - The overall market remains stable, rated at 3.8 stars, with large-cap stocks rising in the morning and small-cap stocks declining, reversing in the afternoon [2][4]. - Dividend and value styles have seen a decline today, while growth styles have shown an overall increase [7][8]. - Hong Kong stocks have performed relatively well, with significant gains, particularly in dividend and technology sectors [9][10]. Investment Strategies - The company is implementing a systematic investment approach, focusing on regular contributions to selected funds, including the China A50 and 300 Dividend Low Volatility funds [11][14]. - A new benefit for investors has been introduced, capping the annual advisory fee for multiple investment combinations at 360 yuan, promoting cost efficiency for those holding multiple portfolios [17]. Valuation Insights - Recent evaluations indicate that the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 Low Volatility indices have reached overvaluation, prompting a phased profit-taking strategy [18][20]. - Specific profit-taking actions have been executed, with the first sales yielding returns of approximately 71% to 90% [20][22]. Fund Performance Metrics - Various indices have been analyzed for their performance metrics, including price-to-earnings ratios, dividend yields, and return on equity, providing a comprehensive view of investment opportunities [16][31].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that fund investment is a suitable method for lazy investors and discusses how to effectively implement it [2][3] - It outlines the preparation needed before starting a fund investment and how to create a solid investment plan [2] - The article presents four different investment methods and encourages readers to identify which one suits them best, along with strategies for profit-taking [2] Group 2 - A free course titled "Fund Investment Guide" is offered to help individuals learn how to formulate a fund investment plan [3] - The course includes supplementary materials such as course notes and mind maps to enhance learning efficiency [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the performance and investment considerations of the consumer industry, highlighting its historical trends and current challenges [1][40]. - The consumer industry is categorized into two main segments: essential consumption and discretionary consumption [4][6]. - Essential consumption includes daily necessities such as food and beverages, while discretionary consumption encompasses items that enhance quality of life, like automobiles and entertainment [5][6]. Group 2 - The consumer industry has shown strong long-term performance, ranking high in returns among all sectors since the end of 2004, with essential consumption leading in returns within the A-share market [10]. - Over the past 20 years, the consumer sector has experienced five cycles of bull and bear markets, indicating its volatility and cyclical nature [12][13]. - In the current bull market, the consumer sector has underperformed, with A-share consumer indices showing minimal gains and even declines in certain segments like liquor [15]. Group 3 - The recent underperformance of the consumer sector is attributed to two main factors: a decline in valuations from previously high levels and a weak fundamental outlook leading to reduced profitability [17][21]. - The article notes that the consumer sector is currently in a low fundamental cycle, similar to the technology sector's previous downturn, suggesting potential for recovery once performance improves [22][25]. - The cyclical nature of the economy means that during periods of declining fundamentals, both valuations and profits can suffer, while recovery phases can lead to simultaneous improvements in both [30]. Group 4 - Investment in the consumer sector requires careful consideration, particularly focusing on buying during undervalued periods and maintaining a long-term perspective [33][34]. - It is recommended to limit exposure to individual sectors or themes to 15-20% of the portfolio to manage volatility effectively [35]. - The article provides resources for checking current index valuations, emphasizing the importance of informed investment decisions [36][38].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 2020-2021年，又是大盘成长风格的午 市，跟500低波动这种中小盘价值风格关 系不大。 ·背后上市公司这些年的盈利也有增长。 2018年之后就没有出现过高估，一直到 今年500类指数大涨。 指数基金净值=估值*盈利+分红，这几个 因素带来了指数的上涨。 红利、低波动、自由现金流、价值，这 螺丝钉看了下2018年那轮5点几星，定 投的500低波动，时隔8年后，持有收益 率大约90%多。 风险提示 从底部上涨，有几方面的原因： ·5点几星以来，估值从低估逐渐提升。 ·低波动指数,每次调仓的时候，会有低 买高卖的效果，带来指数估值的降低。 ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 本文仅为信息分享，不构成任何投资建议。市场有风险，投资需谨慎 。 基金投资组合策略过往业绩并不预示其未来表现 为其他客户创造的收益并不构成业绩表现的保证 ...