文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） urn 银行螺丝钉 债券基金,收益水平和波动风险怎么 样呢? 债券基金,是我们最常见的资产大类之一。 与其他资产相比，有着自身的收益，以及风 n A = / + 不同地区股票市场不是同涨同跌的。了解多个股票市场，投资者可以把握更多的投资机会。 全球投资还可以显著降低波动风险。 那么，如何做好全球投资，分享全球市场长期上涨的红利呢？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，介绍了通过指数基金投资全球股市的方法。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 全球 」领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 如何刷用語發展論 语答全球博汇? 长按添加＠课程小助手,回复「全球」 免费领取《全球指数投资指南》课程 更有课程笔记、思维导图 帮你快速搞懂全球指数投资,分享全球市场长期上涨的红利 基金有风险,投资需谨慎 #螺丝钉小知识 有的债基,短期里下跌10%以上,甚至百分 之三四十，可能就是踩雷了。 规避债券基金踩雷可以注意以下两个要点: 险特征。 如下，是股票基金、债券基金和货币基金这 三个资产大类,2012年以来的走势对比图。 可以看到,债券基金的收 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cyclical nature of the A-share market, particularly focusing on the consumer sector's performance through various bull and bear markets from 2006 to 2025, highlighting significant events and their impacts on market valuations. Group 1: First Bull and Bear Market (2006-2008) - In 2006 and 2007, the A-share market experienced its largest bull market in history, with the Consumer 50 Index rising over 5 times [3] - The bull market was short-lived, as the 2008 financial crisis led to a global stock market decline, causing the Consumer 50 Index to drop over 70% within a year [3] Group 2: Second Bull and Bear Market (2008-2014) - Following the 2008 crisis, a 4 trillion yuan stimulus plan in 2009 initiated a small bull market lasting until around 2011, with the consumer sector increasing by more than 100% [5] - From 2012, rising interest rates began to suppress the A-share market, leading to a decline in the consumer sector, exacerbated by food safety concerns stemming from the liquor plasticizer incident [6][5] - By 2014, the consumer sector's valuation reached historical lows [7] Group 3: Third Bull and Bear Market (2014-2018) - Starting in the second half of 2014, continuous interest rate cuts led to another bull market, with the consumer sector rebounding for over four years [8][9] - However, in 2018, trade policy impacts caused a market downturn, resulting in the consumer sector being undervalued by year-end [10] Group 4: Fourth Bull and Bear Market (2018-2025) - Beginning in 2019, the consumer sector entered its fastest-growing bull market, with the Consumer 50 Index nearly doubling in value [11] - This period also saw significant valuation bubbles forming within the consumer sector [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the design of a "Golden Star Rating" and a "Golden Bull-Bear Signal Board" by the company, aimed at helping investors assess the valuation of gold, similar to stock market indicators [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price and Historical Context - The price of gold is typically referred to in terms of Shanghai gold prices, which closely follow London gold prices, with differences mainly due to exchange rate fluctuations [7]. - Historical data shows that in October 2025, gold was rated at 1.0 star, while it reached over 4 stars during its lowest valuation in 2022. The period from 2011 to 2016 saw a prolonged bear market for gold, with a notable 5-star opportunity during that time [9]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The three main factors affecting gold prices are: 1. **US Dollar**: The actual interest rate of the dollar, calculated as nominal interest rate minus inflation rate, significantly influences gold prices. A substantial decrease in actual interest rates typically leads to an increase in gold prices [12][13]. 2. **Mining Costs**: As of this year, the cost of gold mining is around $1500 per ounce, which has increased due to inflation and rising labor costs. If gold prices fall below mining costs, it presents a significant buying opportunity [18]. 3. **Geopolitical Risks**: Events such as regional conflicts and financial crises can drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset, often resulting in price increases during such times [19][20]. Group 3: Gold Volatility and Risk - Gold typically exhibits a volatility rate of around 34% and a maximum drawdown of approximately 44%, which is comparable to a mixed fund with a 60-70% stock allocation. Generally, gold's risk level is slightly lower than that of average stock assets but higher than bond assets [22][25]. Group 4: Investment Options in Gold - Investors can choose between gold funds and physical gold. Gold funds usually yield slightly lower returns than physical gold due to management fees and cash reserves [31]. - The annualized return for Shanghai gold is approximately 7.71%, while the pure bond index is around 4.36% and the CSI All Share Index is about 8.04% [33]. - Physical gold can be purchased in various forms, including investment bars, panda coins, and jewelry, each with different pricing and investment characteristics [37][39][42].

Group 1 - The core concept of fund advisory is to address the issue where funds make profits but investors do not [4] - Fund advisory serves as a solution to enhance investor returns through professional guidance [5] - The article introduces a free course on fund advisory, providing insights and learning materials for better understanding [5][7] Group 2 - The article discusses three classic strategies for stock-bond allocation, emphasizing the importance of asset allocation in different market conditions [10][12] - The first strategy is valuation-based allocation, where funds are shifted to cash or bonds when the stock market is expensive, allowing for opportunistic buying during market dips [13][15] - The second strategy is target risk strategy, which maintains a fixed stock-bond ratio and rebalances when deviations occur, impacting long-term returns and risks [18][19] - The third strategy is target life cycle strategy, which adjusts stock and bond allocations based on age, promoting higher stock exposure in younger years and more stable assets as one ages [21]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 回到正常估值。 低估品种也逐渐减少。 每一轮从熊市底部上涨，领涨的品种都会 有区别。例如2016-2017年是大盘价值领 涨;2020-2021年是大盘成长领涨;2025 年是小盘成长领涨。 领涨的品种会率先回归正常甚至到高估。 同时，4点几星还有一些低估品种。因为市 场经常是风格轮动的结构性行情，并不是 同涨同跌。 在4点几星，可以投资，但需要控制好股票 资产的比例。股票资产比例不超过「100- 年龄」。做好股债资产配置。 同时，像月薪宝组合，在4-5星阶段也可以 投资。它本身波动比较小,相对稳健的参 与市场。 (3) 3星级 到了3点几星，大多数品种进入正常，一部 分进入高估，低估的品种非常少了。 例如在2021年初3点几星的时候，估值表 里一度没有了绿色低估品种。此时，主动 优选、指数增强,绝大部分指数基金,也 都暂停投入了。 进入高估、出现止盈机会的品种变多。不 过此时的止盈，往往是一部分品种到高估 止盈。也不会全部都止盈卖出。 月薪宝也会暂停投入，继续持有。月薪宝 会自带股债再平衡的低买高卖，会自动帮 助在上涨后止盈。 3星级，要考虑的是找一些波动风险较小的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant decline in global stock markets, primarily driven by renewed tariff threats from the U.S. government, and analyzes the potential impacts on investment strategies and market behavior. Group 1: Market Performance - Global stock indices fell by 2.8% this week [3] - The U.S. stock market index decreased by 2.5% [4] - European and Asia-Pacific markets also experienced widespread declines, with European stocks dropping over 2% and Japanese and Korean stocks falling over 3% [5][6] Group 2: Tariff Crisis Impact - The recent tariff crisis was triggered by Trump's announcement of a potential 100% tariff increase on China, effective November 1 [8] - This situation mirrors the volatility seen in April, which was also influenced by tariff concerns [9] - The A-share market saw a smaller decline of 0.34% compared to global fluctuations, but potential volatility is expected in the following week [11] Group 3: Historical Context and Investment Opportunities - In April, a similar tariff crisis led to a significant undervaluation of global stock markets, which later rebounded by over 20% [15][18] - A-share and Hong Kong stocks also saw substantial recoveries, with A-shares rising 27% and Hong Kong stocks increasing by 36% from their lows [22] - The current tariff situation is viewed as a short-term emotional impact rather than a long-term threat, with the potential for market recovery [23][30] Group 4: Market Segmentation and Valuation - The current market volatility is expected to affect high-valuation growth stocks more significantly, while value stocks may remain relatively stable [31][37] - Growth stocks, particularly in sectors like technology and pharmaceuticals, have seen significant price increases, leading to higher valuations compared to April [34][35] - Value stocks, characterized by lower valuations and stable cash flows, are likely to experience less volatility during this period [39][40] Group 5: Long-term Investment Perspective - Historical patterns suggest that such market fluctuations are often temporary and can present buying opportunities for undervalued stocks [41][46] - Investors are encouraged to assess their portfolios for undervalued assets that continue to show earnings growth, as these are likely to recover in the long run [44][45] - The overall trend indicates that stock indices are expected to move upward over the long term, despite short-term volatility [45]

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying business and profitability when investing in stocks, suggesting that rising profits will ultimately lead to rising stock prices [3][9] - It introduces key principles of value investing, including the concept of a margin of safety, which encourages buying undervalued assets [3][5] - The article discusses the concept of "Mr. Market," a metaphor for market volatility, highlighting the need for investors to remain patient and not be swayed by short-term price fluctuations [10][12] Summary by Sections Value Investing Principles - The core principles of value investing are summarized, focusing on the importance of assessing a company's operational and profit situation [2][7] - The article outlines four fundamental principles of value investing: buying stocks as if buying companies, maintaining a margin of safety, understanding market volatility, and recognizing one's own investment circle of competence [5][6] Understanding Market Behavior - "Mr. Market" is described as a volatile entity that can create irrational price movements, which investors should learn to navigate [10][11] - Historical data indicates that significant market fluctuations occur regularly, with average annual volatility ranging from 10% to 20%, and more severe drops every few years [12][13] Investment Strategy - The article advocates for a long-term investment strategy, suggesting that even during market downturns, quality investments will eventually recover and yield positive returns [13] - It emphasizes the importance of evaluating whether the underlying companies in an investment portfolio are still profitable and growing, which can provide reassurance during market volatility [13]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 很多投资者都是从投资指数基金开始自己的投资之路的。 但是怎样投资指数基金，才能获得好收益？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，介绍了指数基金的投资技巧。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 指数基金 」领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 ◆◆◆ wnl 银行螺丝钉 #螺丝钉小知识 投资领域的免费午餐: 再平衡策略 分散配置可以减少波动风险,但如果只做 分散,那么过段时间随着市场涨跌，不同 资产的比例自然会有高有低,也就失去了 分散的效果。 所以需要按照一定的方式，进行再平衡。 比如股债再平衡,即使股价不涨不跌,投 资者的资产也会增值。 因此,再平衡策略也被称为,投资领域的 免费午餐。 那么,常见的再平衡策略有哪些呢? 主要有四种： (1) 定期再平衡 比如说50:50，每年定期重新再平衡一次。 简单方便，容易操作。 (2) 偏离度达到一定程度后再平衡 比如说一开始50:50，之后，如果比例达到 60:40或者40:60,就触发一次再平衡。 不是按照时间，而是按照偏离程度。 (3) 按照估值再平衡 ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the characteristics of bull and bear markets, highlighting that bear markets often experience prolonged declines while bull markets tend to have sharp corrections followed by recoveries [2][3]. - In a bull market, there are often significant short-term gains followed by market pullbacks, typically characterized by patterns such as "three up, two down" or "three up, one down" [4]. - The article emphasizes the difficulty of timing the market, as the most substantial gains in a bull market can occur within a few trading days, making it challenging to exit and re-enter profitably [5]. Group 2 - The article notes that the magnitude of pullbacks can vary significantly, with some being minor while others can exceed 10%, leading to potential missed opportunities if investors attempt to time their exits [7]. - It explains the relationship between index funds, valuation, earnings, and dividends, stating that valuation primarily affects short-term returns while earnings growth is crucial for long-term performance [8].

Market Overview - The overall market has seen a decline, with the closing rating at 4.1 stars [1] - All market caps, including large, medium, and small caps, experienced a downturn [2] - Growth style stocks faced significant declines, while value style stocks remained relatively stable [3][7] Index Performance - The ChiNext index dropped over 4% after reaching overvalued levels [4] - The Sci-Tech 50 index fell by 4.7% [5] - The Hong Kong stock market also experienced declines, particularly in technology and growth sectors [11][12] Investment Style Dynamics - There is a notable rotation in market styles, with growth stocks showing high volatility and value stocks exhibiting lower volatility during corrections [14] - Indices focused on dividends, value, and free cash flow generally saw increases, with free cash flow indices rising for five consecutive trading days [8][9] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong medical index has shown significant volatility, with a 4.9% drop recently [16] - The Hong Kong medical index has increased by 60-80% from the beginning of the year to the end of September, despite some recent corrections [30] - The Hong Kong medical index is categorized differently than its A-share counterparts, with a focus on healthcare and innovative drugs [21][25] Valuation and Future Outlook - The Hong Kong medical index reached overvalued levels in early September but has since seen a valuation correction [31][32] - The overall valuation of the Hong Kong market is currently between 3.5 and 3.6 stars, with fewer undervalued stocks compared to the previous year [33] - The market is expected to continue adjusting, with some stocks being sold to increase bond holdings in response to rising stock asset values [43]