Core Viewpoint - The current state of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is still considered a bull market, despite fluctuations and signs indicating it may be in the later stages of the bull cycle [4][10][53]. Market Performance - Over the past year, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have seen significant increases, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 56.51% and the CSI All Share Index increasing by 68.54% from September 2024 to January 2026 [5]. - The CSI All Share Index experienced a rise of 61.93% from its lowest point in September 2024 to its peak in October 2025, confirming a technical bull market [9]. Market Signals - Signs indicating the potential late stage of the bull market include: 1. A surge in stock fund subscriptions exceeding 100 billion on January 12, 2026, alongside the suspension of certain fund subscriptions [13]. 2. An increase in the margin requirement from 80% to 100% announced by major exchanges on January 14, 2026, aimed at curbing leveraged investments [14]. 3. Significant net outflows from major ETFs, suggesting institutional investors are taking profits [14][15]. Market Characteristics - The current bull market has been characterized by significant gains in small-cap and growth stocks, with some reaching overvaluation [17]. - Conversely, dividend stocks have shown modest gains and remain relatively undervalued, indicating potential for future growth [21]. Valuation Insights - As of January 20, 2026, the market is rated around 3.8 stars, indicating that most stocks have returned to normal valuations, with fewer stocks considered undervalued [36]. - The overall valuation landscape has shifted from a high percentage of undervalued stocks in September 2024 to a more normalized state by early 2026 [37]. Key Indicators to Monitor - Important indicators to watch in the later stages of a bull market include: 1. Market valuation trends [28]. 2. The liquidity environment, which has been influenced by the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [40]. 3. The fundamental performance of listed companies, which has shown positive growth but may not be sustainable [44]. Summary - The market is experiencing typical bull market fluctuations, with the current phase indicating a potential late-stage environment. Investors are advised to remain vigilant for key signals related to market valuation, liquidity, and company fundamentals while maintaining a strategy of buying on dips and selling on rallies [53].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and investment potential of dividend index funds, highlighting their long-term ability to outperform the market and the various sources of returns associated with them [3][5]. Group 1: Long-term Performance of Dividend Indices - Dividend indices have shown a long-term effectiveness in the A-share market, achieving significant excess returns compared to the CSI 300 index from May 12, 2017, to January 16, 2026 [3]. - The volatility of dividend indices is lower than that of the CSI 300, indicating a slow bull market characteristic [3]. Group 2: Sources of Returns for Dividend Indices - The returns from dividend index funds primarily come from four sources: profit growth, valuation improvement, dividend income, and rule optimization [6][13]. - Profit growth is the fundamental driver of dividend index appreciation, with stable net profit growth observed from 2022 to 2024 [9]. - Valuation improvement contributes to returns, although its impact is relatively limited for dividend indices [10][11]. - Dividend income is significant for dividend and value-oriented indices, with the annualized return of the Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility Index from November 14, 2014, to January 16, 2026, being 8.42% [19]. - Recent policies have encouraged higher dividend payouts, leading to an increase in dividend yields compared to 5-10 years ago [21][23]. Group 3: Impact of Policy Changes - Policies introduced in 2023-2024 have aimed to enhance dividend stability and predictability, resulting in a rise in the number and amount of cash dividends distributed by A-share companies, reaching approximately 2.4 trillion in 2024 [22]. - The increase in dividend payout ratios has led to a higher dividend yield, although it may result in slower profit growth for underlying stocks [25]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Style Rotation - The decline in dividend indices can be attributed to style rotation, where value styles underperform during periods of strong growth styles [31][32]. - Historical performance shows a pattern of alternating between growth and value styles, with recent trends indicating a resurgence of growth styles since late 2025 [33][38]. Group 5: Current Valuation of Dividend Indices - As of January 2026, some dividend indices remain undervalued, with the market rating around 3.8 stars [39].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 基金定投是非常适合懒人的投资方式，但是如何才能聪明地做好基金定投？ 定投前要准备什么？如何制定好定投计划？ 4种定投方法，哪个更适合你？如何止盈？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，能帮助你搞清楚这些问题。 想要获取这门课程，可以扫下方二维码添加 @课程小助手 ，回复「 基金定投 」领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 ◆◆◆ #螺丝钉小知识 wnl 银行螺丝钉 简单4步，帮助新手投资者开启基金 定投 如果希望获得长期较好的收益，需要投资股 西到甘么 示坐垫立。 但是股票基金的波动风险也比较大。对新手 来说，定投，是更合适的入门方法。 这里也介绍一个，适合新手开启基金投资的 方法 -- 基金定投四步法。 (1) 定金额 基金是适合普通人的投资工具,可以满足各 种常见的投资需求。 不过对新手来说,基金不能盲目投资。 不同类型的基金，其风险和收益水平差别很 大,最好是先了解不同基金的特点,并掌握 一些基础的投资方法与技巧，再开始投资。 我们平时接触到的基金,主要是货币基金、 债券基金和股票基金这三类。货币基金、债 券基金走势比较平稳，而股票基金历 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing fluctuations, with large-cap stocks showing slight declines while small-cap stocks are facing more significant drops. Recent weeks have seen a shift towards value and dividend styles, which are gaining strength after a period of underperformance [2][3][4][5]. Market Performance - The overall market has seen a decline, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index slightly down, while small-cap stocks have dropped more significantly [2][3]. - Value and dividend indices have recently increased, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards these styles [4][5]. - Growth styles, particularly in the ChiNext board, have seen a pullback after reaching high valuations in previous weeks [6]. Investment Strategy - The company has adjusted its active selection strategy, taking profits from overvalued growth styles and increasing positions in undervalued value styles, aligning with the recent style shift [7][8]. - Active selection and monthly investment portfolios have achieved new highs recently, reflecting successful strategy implementation [9]. Fund Management - The Hong Kong stock market has shown slight declines, with less volatility compared to A-shares [10]. - The company has introduced a new fee structure for investment advisory services, capping annual fees at 360 yuan regardless of the number of portfolios held, which is a first in the industry [16][19]. - The company has paused subscriptions for certain investment portfolios to prevent investors from chasing high prices, indicating a focus on maintaining investment discipline [20]. Index Valuation - The CSI 1000 index has reached high valuation levels, prompting the company to initiate a phased profit-taking strategy for holdings in this index [22]. - The company has successfully executed profit-taking on its holdings in the CSI 1000 index, achieving returns of approximately 71% to 72% on recent sales [22]. New Publications - A new book titled "Dividend Index Fund Investment Guide" has been released, quickly becoming a bestseller, aimed at educating investors about dividend index funds [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment opportunities and strategies based on different star ratings of the market, specifically focusing on the current 3.x star rating and the appropriate investment combinations for both existing and new funds [1][11][67]. Group 1: Star Rating and Investment Strategies - The "螺丝钉星级" (Screw Star Rating) is used to assess the overall market valuation, with a scale from 1 to 5 stars indicating different investment phases [6][9]. - A 5-5.9 star rating represents the best phase for investing in stock funds, characterized by a high number of undervalued options and limited downside risk [26][28]. - In the 4-4.9 star range, there are still some undervalued options, but the number decreases, and investment amounts should be reduced compared to the 5-star phase [31][32]. - The 3-3.9 star range indicates that most options are either fairly valued or overvalued, making it less favorable for new investments in stock funds [35][39]. Group 2: Current Market Valuation - As of early January 2026, the market is around 3.9 stars, with most options returning to normal valuations and few remaining undervalued [11][67]. - The article notes that during the extreme valuation of 5.9 stars in September 2024, a significant portion of the market was undervalued [12]. - Historical data shows that at 3.7 stars in early 2021, there were no undervalued options available, highlighting the cyclical nature of market valuations [13][36]. Group 3: Investment Combinations - The article outlines various investment combinations suitable for different star ratings, including "主动优选" (Active Selection), "指数增强" (Index Enhancement), and "月薪宝" (Monthly Salary Treasure) [19][30][55]. - The "月薪宝" combination, which includes a higher proportion of stock assets, is currently undervalued, while "主动优选" and "指数增强" have returned to normal valuations [20][21]. - For 4-star phases, a more conservative approach with lower stock exposure, such as the "月薪宝" combination, is recommended to mitigate volatility [33][34]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Strategies - The article suggests using a "100-age" rule for allocating existing funds, where the percentage of stock assets should be based on the investor's age [49][46]. - For new funds, a systematic investment approach (定投) is recommended, particularly during favorable market conditions [51][29]. - The article emphasizes the importance of diversifying investments across different asset types to manage risk effectively [34][57].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cyclical nature of the A-share market, emphasizing that it will not remain in a perpetual bull or bear market, but will oscillate between the two states over time [11][12][30]. Market Performance - The major indices, including the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, experienced slight declines, while small-cap stocks saw significant gains [2]. - The value style, which was previously underperforming, showed notable increases today [3]. - Free cash flow and dividend indices led the market gains [4]. - Growth styles, such as the ChiNext and STAR Market, experienced minor declines [5]. - The Hong Kong stock market also faced an overall downturn [6]. Market Cycles - Three significant cycles impact the market: 1. **Liquidity Cycle**: Influenced by the availability of money, affected by interest and exchange rate fluctuations. For instance, the Federal Reserve's rate hikes in 2021-2022 led to a global market downturn, while a potential rate cut in September 2024 could result in a 50-60% rise in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks from their lows [14][15][17][19]. 2. **Fundamental Cycle**: Relates to the growth rate of corporate earnings. Bull markets typically occur when earnings growth exceeds 20%, as seen in 2007, 2017, and 2021. Conversely, earnings declines in 2013 and 2024 marked bear market bottoms [20][22]. 3. **Sentiment Cycle**: Reflects investor emotions, where optimism peaks during bull markets and pessimism during bear markets. This is evidenced by fluctuations in new account openings and trading volumes [24][26][28]. Investment Strategy - Investors should recognize that these cycles are ongoing and will not remain static. When one or two cycles are at their peaks or troughs, it can lead to significant market movements [29][30]. - Smart investors can capitalize on these cycles by buying during downturns and selling during upswings, while remaining patient during neutral periods [32][33]. New Book Release - The new book "Dividend Index Fund Investment Guide" has been released and quickly topped sales charts, highlighting the growing interest in dividend index funds [35].

一般平均每3-5年，会遇到一次按照收益 率止盈的机会。 这种止盈方式的优点是，执行起来比较 简单。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 缺点是,可能会错过牛市收益。例如 2007、2015年这种罕见的大牛市，会提 前下车。 不过止盈后,也可以投资其他的低估品 种,以此来弥补牛市错过收益的遗憾。 (2) 按照高估止盈 通常来说估值较低的时候,适合定投; 估值正常的时候,可以暂停定投继续持 有;估值较高的时候,可以考虑止盈。 按照高估止盈,具备两大优点。 一是在牛市收益高。通常从低估到正常 估值,从正常估值到高估,每一个区域 都有30%-40%的涨幅。 另一个优点是可以长时间地享受到投资 品种盈利上涨带来的收益。 一般在大牛市的中后期,才会达到高 估。大牛市通常7-10年一轮，使用这种 投资方式,持有时间比较长,可以享受 投资品种本身盈利带来的收益。 当然,这种止盈方式也会有缺点,那就 是持有周期会比较长,投资者需要非常 有耐心。 (3) 长期持有不卖出,依靠分红作为盈 利方式 指数基金之父约翰·博格曾说过：如果客 户的收入需求和指数基金的股息分红、 利息收入等相匹配，那就没有比简单的 「坚持到底」更好的投资 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that different stock markets do not move in unison, and understanding multiple markets can provide investors with more opportunities [2] - Global investment can significantly reduce volatility risk, suggesting that investors should consider diversifying their portfolios internationally [2] - A free course is offered to teach methods for investing in global stock markets through index funds, along with supplementary materials like course notes and mind maps [2][3] Group 2 - The article discusses how to allocate family funds into stock assets, suggesting a strategy based on the "target life cycle" approach [5] - It defines two types of funds: existing funds (savings) and incremental funds (future income), recommending that at least 30% of family assets should remain in stock assets [5][7] - The "target life cycle strategy" suggests allocating stock and bond assets based on the formula "100 - age," indicating that younger individuals can afford a higher percentage of stocks [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents an index map that includes various commonly used stock indices, their codes, selection rules, industry distribution, and average and median market capitalizations of constituent stocks, which will be updated regularly for easy reference [1]. Group 1: Index Categories - The index map includes several categories of stock indices: broad-based indices, strategy indices, industry indices, thematic indices, and overseas indices [3]. Group 2: Industry Indices - The industry indices listed include: - CSI Semiconductor - Biotechnology - Hang Seng Technology - CSI Medical - China Internet 50 - CSI Traditional Chinese Medicine - Hang Seng Healthcare - NASDAQ 100 - Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Healthcare - S&P 500 - Hang Seng Biotechnology - S&P Technology - Hang Seng Innovative Drugs - US Consumer - Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drugs - Global Healthcare - Real Estate Industry - Infrastructure Industry [4][7]. Group 3: Broad-based Indices - Key broad-based indices include: - CSI 300: Average market cap of ¥216.27 billion, median market cap of ¥112.28 billion, with 300 constituent stocks [6]. - CSI 500: Average market cap of ¥37.79 billion, median market cap of ¥32.58 billion, with 500 constituent stocks [6]. - CSI 800: Average market cap of ¥104.72 billion, median market cap of ¥44.98 billion, with 800 constituent stocks [6]. - CSI 1000: Average market cap of ¥15.93 billion, median market cap of ¥14.04 billion, with 1000 constituent stocks [6]. - CSI 2000: Average market cap of ¥6.48 billion, median market cap of ¥5.69 billion, with 2000 constituent stocks [6]. Group 4: Strategy Indices - Strategy indices include: - CSI Dividend: Average market cap of ¥212.88 billion, median market cap of ¥33.85 billion, with 100 constituent stocks [10]. - Shanghai Dividend: Average market cap of ¥333.78 billion, median market cap of ¥71.59 billion, with 50 constituent stocks [10]. - Shenzhen Dividend: Average market cap of ¥107.51 billion, median market cap of ¥75.75 billion, with 40 constituent stocks [10]. - Dividend Opportunity: Average market cap of ¥163.31 billion, median market cap of ¥21.37 billion, with 100 constituent stocks [10]. Group 5: Thematic Indices - Thematic indices are categorized but not detailed in the provided content [17].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 准的超大盘股指数。 (2) H股指数 H股指数，全称是「恒生中国企业指 数」，也有地方称它为「国企指数」。 这里的国企指数，并不是说它只投资国 有企业，而是说它投的是中国企业。如 果一家公司的主营业务在内地，但是在 香港地区上市，这样的公司就属于H股 范畴。 H股指数也是大盘股为主，它的平均市 值规模甚至比恒生指数还要更大一些。 因为它的成分股中，包括了很多主营业 务在内地、大家比较耳熟能详的大公 司，比如腾讯、阿里，以及金融行业里 的银行、保险、券商股。 风险提示 本文仅为信息分享，不构成任何投资建议。市场有风险，投资需谨慎 。 基金投资组合策略过往业绩并不预示其未来表现 为其他客户创造的收益并不构成业绩表现的保证 ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 (3) 香港中小 ...