Group 1 - The article discusses the current state of the A-share bull market, indicating that it may have entered the mid-to-late stage, supported by several signals observed in January 2026 [5][6]. - On January 12, a stock fund experienced over 10 billion yuan in subscriptions in a single day, a clear sign of a bull market's later stages, as similar occurrences were noted in previous bull markets in 2021, 2015, 2009, and 2007 [5]. - The announcement on January 14 to adjust the financing margin ratio from 80% to 100% is aimed at curbing leveraged investments in A-shares, a tactic previously used during the 2015 bull market [5][6]. Group 2 - On January 15, significant net outflows were observed in major ETFs, with the largest, the CSI 300 ETF, experiencing approximately 20 billion yuan in outflows, marking the highest single-day net outflow since 2012 [7]. - The primary investors in index funds are institutional investors, such as state-owned entities and pension funds, who typically buy during market dips and reduce their holdings as the market peaks [7][8]. - The current market conditions suggest that it may not be an opportune time for large investments in stock funds, as the market appears to be overvalued, and investors are advised to be cautious with their buying strategies [8][9].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 一、【第430期直播回放】 有朋友问，A股港股的牛市有哪些特点？ 牛市没到高估的品种，会有收益吗，收益来源有哪些？ 结构性牛市，我们该如何应对？ 在今晚的直播课里，螺丝钉详细介绍了这些问题。 长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 0123 」即可观看直播回放。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦～） PS：直播内容仅为市场知识分享，不构成投资建议。 二、【部分直播课内容如下】 1. A股港股牛市的特点 观察A股和港股的牛熊市，会发现在上涨行情中，二者有以下三个共同的牛市特点： · 少有慢牛，经常是闪电般快牛； 下面，我们就来分别介绍下。 2. 特点一： 少有慢牛，经常是闪电般快牛 A股经常是连续几年低迷，然后在短时间内大幅上涨。 从2024年9月以来，A股中证全指，大约从底部上涨66%。 4. 特点三： 少有普涨牛市，多为结构性牛市 第一波上涨出现在2024年9月，中证全指上涨大约40%。 第二波上涨出现在2025年4-9月，中证全指上涨大约20%。 第三波上涨出现在2025年12月至今，中证全指上涨大约11%。 这三波上涨，合计大约71%。 换句话说，除 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various methods for profit-taking in investments, highlighting their advantages and disadvantages, and provides examples of past investment strategies based on market valuation levels [1][22][81]. Summary by Sections Profit-Taking Methods - Three common methods for profit-taking in single index funds are outlined: 1. Profit-taking based on yield. 2. Profit-taking based on overvaluation. 3. Long-term holding without selling, relying on dividends for profit [5][34]. Method 1: Profit-Taking Based on Yield - This method involves taking profits when the yield reaches a predetermined level, typically around 30%. It is noted that opportunities for this type of profit-taking occur approximately every 3-5 years [7][10]. Method 2: Profit-Taking Based on Overvaluation - The article explains that: - Low valuation is suitable for regular investments. - Normal valuation suggests holding. - High valuation indicates a potential for profit-taking [11][12]. - The valuation can be assessed using the "Screw Nut Star Rating" and valuation tables updated daily [14][18]. Method 3: Long-Term Holding - This strategy emphasizes holding investments for the long term and relying on dividends. It is particularly suitable for high-dividend stocks and index funds [34][35]. Case Studies of Investment Strategies - The article provides examples of successful investment strategies: 1. From 2018 (5-star rating) to 2021 (3-star rating), investments were made in undervalued assets, which were later sold at high valuations [22]. 2. Investments made in 2018 that remain at normal valuation levels, with plans to sell when they reach overvaluation [24]. 3. A strategy initiated in 2024 with investments in the CSI 1000 index, which will be sold when it reaches overvaluation [26]. Automatic Profit-Taking Features - The company offers automatic profit-taking features in its investment advisory products, allowing for seamless transitions from high to low-risk investments when market conditions change [49][56]. Monthly Cash Flow Investment Strategy - The "Monthly Salary" investment advisory product allows for flexible cash flow options, with a projected annual payout of approximately 6% of the total assets [43][44]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes the importance of selecting appropriate profit-taking strategies based on individual circumstances and market conditions, while also highlighting the automated features of the company's investment products that facilitate these strategies [81][83].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of various stock indices, highlighting the rotation of investment styles and the implications for valuation metrics, particularly focusing on dividend indices and their calculation methods [1][2][3][4][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - The major indices, including the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen 300, experienced slight increases, with small-cap stocks showing more significant gains [2]. - After a period of low performance, value style indices related to dividends and cash flow have seen an overall rise [3]. - Growth style indices, such as the ChiNext and STAR Market, initially fell but ended the trading day with gains [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The current market conditions present opportunities for low-buy and high-sell adjustments in portfolios [6]. - Recent style rotations align with the adjustments made in actively managed portfolios over the past two weeks [7]. - Active selection and enhanced index strategies have achieved strong performance at the beginning of the year, marking one of the best starts in recent years [8]. Group 3: Valuation Discrepancies - There is a notable discrepancy in the reported price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the CSI Dividend Index, with some sources reporting around 8 times while others indicate over 10 times [13][14]. - The difference arises from the weighting methods used in calculating the indices, with most platforms using total market capitalization while the dividend index uses dividend yield weighting [19][20]. - The weighting method significantly affects the representation of bank stocks, which have a low weight in the dividend index but a high market cap, leading to a distorted P/E ratio when calculated by market cap [21][27][30]. Group 4: Index Composition - The top holdings in the CSI Dividend Index show that only two stocks have a P/E ratio below 10, indicating that the overall P/E cannot realistically be as low as 8 times [35][36]. - The financial sector's actual weight in the dividend index is around 23%, similar to the 21% in the CSI 300, suggesting that the perceived low valuation is misleading [30][31]. - The article emphasizes the need for accurate valuation calculations based on actual holdings rather than simplistic total market cap methods [55]. Group 5: Investment Insights - The article introduces a valuation table for various indices, including dividend indices, to assist investors in making informed decisions [56]. - The recent publication of the book "Dividend Index Fund Investment Guide" aims to clarify investor doubts regarding dividend products and has quickly gained popularity [63]. - The author encourages investors to focus on long-term value and to be cautious about market trends, emphasizing the importance of protecting investor interests over mere growth in scale [64].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 大部分投资者对股票指数基金都耳熟能详，但是对债券指数基金知之甚少。债券指数基金该如何投资？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，介绍了债券指数基金的投资方法。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 债券 」领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 ◆◆◆ 成长价值风俗投资,核心是话! 企业从上市开始，会经历： ·深度成长： IPO成功，企业获得大笔资 金，收入开始高速增长。 ·成长：企业拥有一定的市场占有率和营 收规模，收入增长速度快。 ·成长价值:企业占有率逐渐接近天花 板,收入增速放缓,但可以通过裁员降 薪、提高效率的方式，盈利高速增长。 · 深度价值:收入和盈利都接近天花板, 企业会呈现低估值、高分红的特征。 不同的投资大师,所处的阶段不同，投 资策略和理念也会有区别。 这需要几个条件。 (1) 有可观盈利 这就注定不是一些创业公司。 创业公司还在比较早期，别说盈利了, 有的还要烧钱发展业务。 (2) 盈利要稳定 公司要有能维持长期盈利的能力。这种 能力，就是护城河。 巴菲特在1999年的《财富》杂志上，发 表了一篇文章，介绍 ...

想要获取这门课程，可以扫下方二维码添加 @课程小助手 ，回复 「 基金入门 」 领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 und #螺丝钉小知识 银行螺丝钉 场内基金溢价了，是啥意思? 正常情况下场内基金往往是很少出现溢 价的。 场内基金溢价是什么意思呢? 投资的时候,我们会看到场内基金有两种 交易方式。 第一种是按照基金的净值申购赎回,这 点跟场外是一样的。 现在场外申购基金都是按照当天的净值 去成交和申购赎回的。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 基金是非常适合普通人的投资品种。 什么类型的基金更适合新手？ 基金投资该怎么投？ 长期投资前要做哪些心理建设？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，能帮助新手投资者从零开始了解基金投资。 如果溢价去购买场内基金就不太划算 了。 在投资的时候,大多数情况下,场内基 金的折溢价率都不太高,一般是在零上 下波动。 也就是场内基金在投资的时候,通常没 有太高的溢价,也没有太高的折价。 场内基金除了按照净值申购赎回之外, 还可以按照场内的交易价格进行买卖交 易。 如果买卖的交易价格低于基金净值,就是 折价。 反之,当交易价格高于基金净值,就是出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets, highlighting their resilience amidst global market fluctuations and the potential impact of tariff increases on inflation and interest rates [2][3][4][7]. Market Performance - The A-share and Hong Kong markets showed strength, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the Hang Seng Index experiencing slight increases [2]. - The growth style of stocks outperformed value stocks, which saw a minor decline [2]. - The article notes that the A-share and Hong Kong markets have risen by 50-60% since the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in September 2024, significantly outperforming global stock indices [8][10]. Tariff Implications - Recent announcements by former President Trump regarding tariff increases on European countries have caused short-term concerns in the market, leading to declines in major U.S. indices [3][4]. - Historical context is provided, indicating that similar tariff increases in April 2025 led to significant market downturns, but subsequent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve resulted in market recoveries [5][6][8]. Economic Recovery - The article emphasizes that the fundamentals of A-share companies have shown recovery, with a year-on-year profit growth of approximately 10% in the third quarter of 2025, marking the best performance in recent years [15][16]. - The recovery in corporate earnings is seen as beneficial for the valuation of RMB assets [17]. Valuation Insights - The current valuation of A-share and Hong Kong stocks has returned to around 3 stars, indicating a less favorable environment for large new investments compared to previous years when valuations were lower [18][20]. - The article suggests that while the market has seen significant gains, the best investment opportunities may have been during the periods of lower valuations [19]. Investment Strategy - The article promotes a cautious approach to investing, suggesting that as the market rises, investors may need to consider rebalancing and taking profits [22]. - It also introduces a new book on dividend index fund investment, aimed at helping investors navigate this investment strategy [23].

Group 1 - The main driving factors behind the recent market rally are market liquidity and the growth of listed companies' profits [1] Group 2 - Market liquidity is influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, leading to global liquidity easing. Many small countries and certain small-scale metals have seen significant price increases due to abundant liquidity [2] - The Chinese yuan is also experiencing ample liquidity, with a large amount of deposits maturing in 2026, which may lead to a portion of these funds flowing into other financial assets, including stocks [3][4] - It is expected that 5%-10% of the maturing deposits may enter stock assets, contributing to a potential bull market for small-cap stocks [4] Group 3 - The profitability of listed companies is projected to recover in 2025, particularly in the technology sector, which is expected to lead the market [6] - Some sectors, such as dividend stocks, may see slight profit growth, while others, like consumer stocks, are still expected to decline in profitability [6]

Core Viewpoint - The current state of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is still considered a bull market, despite fluctuations and signs indicating it may be in the later stages of the bull cycle [4][10][53]. Market Performance - Over the past year, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have seen significant increases, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 56.51% and the CSI All Share Index increasing by 68.54% from September 2024 to January 2026 [5]. - The CSI All Share Index experienced a rise of 61.93% from its lowest point in September 2024 to its peak in October 2025, confirming a technical bull market [9]. Market Signals - Signs indicating the potential late stage of the bull market include: 1. A surge in stock fund subscriptions exceeding 100 billion on January 12, 2026, alongside the suspension of certain fund subscriptions [13]. 2. An increase in the margin requirement from 80% to 100% announced by major exchanges on January 14, 2026, aimed at curbing leveraged investments [14]. 3. Significant net outflows from major ETFs, suggesting institutional investors are taking profits [14][15]. Market Characteristics - The current bull market has been characterized by significant gains in small-cap and growth stocks, with some reaching overvaluation [17]. - Conversely, dividend stocks have shown modest gains and remain relatively undervalued, indicating potential for future growth [21]. Valuation Insights - As of January 20, 2026, the market is rated around 3.8 stars, indicating that most stocks have returned to normal valuations, with fewer stocks considered undervalued [36]. - The overall valuation landscape has shifted from a high percentage of undervalued stocks in September 2024 to a more normalized state by early 2026 [37]. Key Indicators to Monitor - Important indicators to watch in the later stages of a bull market include: 1. Market valuation trends [28]. 2. The liquidity environment, which has been influenced by the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [40]. 3. The fundamental performance of listed companies, which has shown positive growth but may not be sustainable [44]. Summary - The market is experiencing typical bull market fluctuations, with the current phase indicating a potential late-stage environment. Investors are advised to remain vigilant for key signals related to market valuation, liquidity, and company fundamentals while maintaining a strategy of buying on dips and selling on rallies [53].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and investment potential of dividend index funds, highlighting their long-term ability to outperform the market and the various sources of returns associated with them [3][5]. Group 1: Long-term Performance of Dividend Indices - Dividend indices have shown a long-term effectiveness in the A-share market, achieving significant excess returns compared to the CSI 300 index from May 12, 2017, to January 16, 2026 [3]. - The volatility of dividend indices is lower than that of the CSI 300, indicating a slow bull market characteristic [3]. Group 2: Sources of Returns for Dividend Indices - The returns from dividend index funds primarily come from four sources: profit growth, valuation improvement, dividend income, and rule optimization [6][13]. - Profit growth is the fundamental driver of dividend index appreciation, with stable net profit growth observed from 2022 to 2024 [9]. - Valuation improvement contributes to returns, although its impact is relatively limited for dividend indices [10][11]. - Dividend income is significant for dividend and value-oriented indices, with the annualized return of the Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility Index from November 14, 2014, to January 16, 2026, being 8.42% [19]. - Recent policies have encouraged higher dividend payouts, leading to an increase in dividend yields compared to 5-10 years ago [21][23]. Group 3: Impact of Policy Changes - Policies introduced in 2023-2024 have aimed to enhance dividend stability and predictability, resulting in a rise in the number and amount of cash dividends distributed by A-share companies, reaching approximately 2.4 trillion in 2024 [22]. - The increase in dividend payout ratios has led to a higher dividend yield, although it may result in slower profit growth for underlying stocks [25]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Style Rotation - The decline in dividend indices can be attributed to style rotation, where value styles underperform during periods of strong growth styles [31][32]. - Historical performance shows a pattern of alternating between growth and value styles, with recent trends indicating a resurgence of growth styles since late 2025 [33][38]. Group 5: Current Valuation of Dividend Indices - As of January 2026, some dividend indices remain undervalued, with the market rating around 3.8 stars [39].