文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 这种定期支付型基金的设计理念还是不错, 可以满足我们对定期现金流的需求。 不过，这类基金的数量很少，基金规模也比 较小，其中很多规模还不到1个亿。 机正个官困立正百正宣州吖休芯,卻云走敗 发放现金流。 并且还有不少基金限购了，普通投资者很难 买得到。 (2) 红利指数基金 这类基金，通常是按照红利指数的规则来选 股，也就是挑选股息率较高的股票。 所以，红利指数基金有一种投资策略就是: 在低估、股息率较高的阶段买入，之后长期 持有不卖出,以基金分红作为盈利来源。 如果不需要现金流也可以随时暂停，那么现 金流就不会发放,而是在账户里继续投资。 这样更加灵活，可以满足更多朋友的需求。 月薪宝组合投资的是40%的股票基金+60% 的债券基金。波动比红利指数基金更小。 红利指数基金往往是按年分红，时间间隔比 较长。遇到熊市低迷的阶段，也会出现不分 红的情况。 波动小更容易长期持有下来，也更适合拿月 薪宝来养老、还贷等，会更加安心。 总结一下上述3种方式,不难发现: 月薪宝组合是更能满足养老、教育、生活、 还贷等长期、持续定期现金流需求的。 在公众号底部对话框回复「月薪宝」，即可 ...

Core Insights - The article provides a summary of key investment strategies and insights for October, focusing on various investment portfolios and market conditions [1][2]. Investment Strategies - The article introduces a free investment guide titled "Fund Investment Advisory Guide," which aims to help readers understand fund advisory and investment strategies [2]. - The "Screw Nail Gold Nail Treasure Index Enhanced Advisory Portfolio" has outperformed the CSI 800 Index by 5.49% as of August 2025, indicating its effectiveness in generating returns [4]. - The "Screw Nail Gold Nail Treasure Active Selection Advisory Portfolio" has outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 6.94% as of August 2025, showcasing the benefits of selecting high-quality fund managers [4]. - The "Screw Nail Silver Nail Treasure Monthly Salary Advisory Portfolio" employs a balanced stock-bond strategy, maintaining a 40:60 ratio, and has shown significant excess returns since its inception [5]. - The "Screw Nail Silver Nail Treasure 365-Day Advisory Portfolio" focuses on a conservative allocation of 15% stocks and 85% bonds, outperforming the secondary bond fund index by 3.01% as of August 2025 [6]. - The "Screw Nail Silver Nail Treasure 90-Day Advisory Portfolio" primarily invests in short-term bond funds, achieving returns that exceed the CSI Money Market Fund Index [7]. Market Insights - The article discusses the characteristics of bull markets in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, emphasizing the importance of avoiding impulsive trading and focusing on long-term investments [15]. - It highlights the current low valuation of the consumer sector, which has been underperforming but is expected to recover as valuations have decreased significantly [16]. - The article explains the impact of high tariffs on investments, suggesting that while they may cause short-term volatility, they do not significantly affect long-term investment strategies [21]. Investment Principles - The article outlines the four principles of value investing, which include understanding that buying stocks means buying companies, maintaining a margin of safety, recognizing market fluctuations, and operating within one's circle of competence [22]. - It emphasizes the importance of asset allocation and rebalancing strategies to manage market volatility and enhance returns [22]. Additional Resources - The article mentions the creation of a "Screw Nail Index Map" to help investors quickly reference various indices, including their codes, selection rules, and industry distributions [13]. - It also introduces the "Screw Nail Gold Star Rating" and "Bull-Bear Signal Board" for assessing gold asset valuations and market conditions [12].

Group 1 - The article discusses various investment styles, particularly focusing on "deep growth" stocks, which are less common in funds but prevalent in new stocks on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the ChiNext Board [4] - "Growth" style stocks are characterized by high revenue and profit growth, often trading at significantly higher valuations than the market average, with typical price-to-earnings ratios ranging from 40 to 50 times [6][7] - "Growth value" style stocks are in a mature phase with slowing revenue growth but can maintain profitability through cost control, often represented by high ROE stocks in sectors like consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and technology [8][10] Group 2 - "Deep value" style stocks show stable dividends and high dividend yields, with performance expected to be strong from 2022 to 2024, reflecting a trend of style rotation in the A-share market [11][12] - The article highlights a historical performance pattern where growth styles dominated from 2019 to 2021, while value styles are expected to be strong from 2022 to 2024, with a potential shift back to growth styles in 2025 [12][13] - Understanding the characteristics of different styles allows for strategic adjustments in portfolio allocation based on valuation opportunities [12]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector has been experiencing a downturn since 2025, similar to the period from 2013 to 2017, with concerns about profitability and market conditions [2][4]. Group 1: Historical Comparison - The current situation mirrors the 2013-2017 period, characterized by declining profits and a sluggish consumer market [3][4]. - In 2013, the consumer sector faced its lowest historical valuations, exacerbated by a bear market and fundamental issues such as food safety scandals [4]. - The first wave of recovery in 2014 was driven by securities, while the upcoming recovery in late 2024 is expected to see significant gains in brokerage stocks [4]. Group 2: Economic Correlation - The consumer industry is closely tied to the real economy, with notable bull markets occurring in 2017 and 2021 during periods of strong economic fundamentals [5][6]. - The current low performance in the consumer sector is attributed to weak fundamentals, with profit growth expected to slow in early 2025 [7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - A weak fundamental environment often leads to a "double whammy" of declining valuations and profits, while a strong environment can result in simultaneous valuation increases and profit growth [7]. - The consumer sector is currently in a low fundamental phase, but a potential recovery could lead to improved profitability and higher valuations [9]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - For those optimistic about consumer stocks, a long-term investment approach is necessary, waiting for a fundamental recovery [10]. - It is advisable to limit exposure to a single industry to 15%-20% to manage volatility effectively [10].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 螺丝钉也做了美股、全球股票指数、美债指数的估值表。见文章下面图片。每周日会在公众号、以及「 今天几星 」小程序，每周定期更新。 1. 本周全球股票市场微涨微跌，波动不大。 A股本周略微上涨，中证全指微涨0.41%。 欧洲股票市场普遍下跌。 亚太地区微涨。 北京时间周四凌晨，美联储发布了10月的降息公告。 降低25个基点，符合市场预期。 不过美联储发言说，12月的利率下调"远非"已成定局。 也就是10月降息了，12月降不降美联储还没给准话。 这让市场担心美元12月可能降息会有变数（目前市场预期12月降息概率在50-60%上下）。 消息出来后，周四周五全球市场也出现了一些波动。 韩国股市最近因为APEC峰会，大幅上涨，本月韩股上涨超20%。 去年、今年4月，韩国股市也一度处于低估，最近两个季度大幅上涨，目前也不太便宜了。 其实从去年9月份，美联储进入降息周期以来， 全球股票市场都受益于利率下降带来的资金充裕，估值得到提升。 A股港股从去年5.9星大幅上涨；亚太地区的韩股、日股，欧洲股市，也普遍上涨。 不过从长远看，美联储还是会继续降低利率的。 目前4%上下的利率对美元来说还 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investing in A-shares can indeed outperform inflation over the long term, as the overall economic development of the country supports stock market growth [4][5]. Group 1: A-share Market Performance - The representative index for A-shares is the CSI All Share Index, which covers all listed companies in A-shares, providing a stronger representation compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [6]. - The CSI All Share Index started at 1000 points at the end of 2004 and is projected to reach 4750.67 points by December 31, 2024. Including dividends, the total return index is expected to rise to 6284.26 points [6]. - The historical average annualized return for A-shares over the past decade is approximately 9%-10% [8]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investing in stock funds can yield better returns than directly investing in A-shares, with the total return index for all A-share stock funds rising from 1164 points at the end of 2004 to 9140.39 points by December 31, 2024, resulting in an annualized return of 11%-13% [8]. - The phrase "investing in funds is better than trading stocks" reflects the higher average returns from stock funds, as they can exclude poorly performing companies [9]. - Stock funds can be categorized into two types: passive funds (index funds) and active funds, with index funds being a good entry point for individual investors due to their clear rules, low costs, and ease of management [9].

大家好，我是银行螺丝钉，欢迎来到这期的螺丝钉带你读书。 「螺丝钉带你读书」也陪伴大家度过了三百多期，为大家讲解了很多有趣、经典的书籍和故 事，比如《三十几岁，财务自由》、《如何读一本书》、《战胜拖延症》等等。 还为大家详细介绍了几位投资大师：股神巴菲特、他的好搭档查理芒格和指数基金之父约翰博 格。分享了他们的人生经历、投资生涯和投资的理念。 大家可以点击下面链接查看部分螺丝钉带你读书合集： 《 世界读书日，螺丝钉送你121本私藏经典好书 》 往期回顾 第一篇：《 从创业，到上市：企业生命周期6阶段，投资机会都在哪？ 》 第二篇：《 牛市涨成长，熊市涨价值：如何洞悉企业生命周期，把握A股风格轮动？ 》 企业的生命周期 和投资风格 上一篇螺丝钉带你读书，我们介绍了企业的生命周期和投资风格。 当企业成功上市之后，主要是有4个生命周期和风格。 （1）深度成长 上市时间不长，收入规模不大，但高速增长。 （2）成长 上市一段时间，收入规模比较大，收入高速增长。 （3）成长价值 收入逐渐接近天花板，增长速度放缓；但企业控制好成本，盈利还高速增长。 （4）深度价值 此时收入、盈利增速都放缓，企业保持稳定高分红。 不同阶段的企 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of market fluctuations on investor behavior, particularly during bear market bottoms, where some investors may sell their holdings due to fear or financial necessity [3][4]. - It highlights a scenario where an investor initially invests 10,000 yuan at a rating of 4.5 stars, but due to market downturns, the value drops to 8,000 yuan, resulting in a floating loss of 2,000 yuan [3]. - Even when the market recovers to the initial rating of 4.5 stars, the remaining investment of 2,000 yuan may not be sufficient to cover the previous floating loss, leading to a situation where some investors still experience losses despite the strategy reaching new highs [4]. Group 2 - The article suggests that improving investment outcomes can be achieved by using long-term idle funds for investment and maintaining a positive mindset to avoid panic selling during bear market bottoms [5][6]. - It notes that a significant majority of investors, over 90%, engaged in regular investment or increased their positions during bear market bottoms, which is much higher than the market average [6][7]. - The recommended strategy is to buy during market dips and sell during market rises, while remaining patient during other periods [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve on various asset classes, including U.S. stocks, bonds, and international markets, highlighting the relationship between interest rates, inflation, and economic growth [1][12][36]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Interest Rates - The primary long-term factor affecting interest rates is the economic growth rate. A slowdown in economic growth typically leads to lower interest rates [4][5]. - In the short term, inflation rates also significantly influence interest rates. High inflation often necessitates higher interest rates to control it [6][7]. Group 2: Historical Inflation Trends - U.S. stock market inflation rates surged from around 0% in 2020 to a peak of 9.1% in mid-2022, prompting the Federal Reserve to implement the most significant interest rate hikes in the last 20 years [9][10]. - As of September 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the U.S. stock market has decreased to approximately 3% [10]. Group 3: Recent Interest Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve initiated a new cycle of interest rate cuts in September 2024, with the first cut occurring in October 2025 [12][36]. - Following the initiation of the rate cut cycle, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have seen significant gains, ranking among the top globally [13]. Group 4: Impact of Interest Rates on Asset Prices - Higher interest rates generally exert downward pressure on asset prices, while lower rates can lead to price increases across various asset classes, including stocks, bonds, and real estate [15]. - The U.S. stock market has experienced a 22.41% increase, while the global stock market rose by 23.01% since the onset of the rate cut cycle [19]. Group 5: Effects on Different Markets - The decline in U.S. interest rates has led to a narrowing interest rate differential between the U.S. dollar and the Chinese yuan, contributing to the appreciation of the yuan [25]. - The changes in U.S. interest rates also affect the A-share and Hong Kong markets, with the recent rate cuts leading to increased capital inflows into these markets [29][30]. Group 6: Common Questions and Answers - The benefits of interest rate cuts are often reflected in the market weeks before the actual announcement, as investors anticipate the changes [32]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates due to significant fiscal pressures, including rising national debt and interest payments [36][38].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reasons behind the discrepancies in dividend indices' percentile rankings and their valuation, emphasizing that percentile data serves as a reference rather than a definitive measure of value [2][3]. Group 1: Changes in Dividend Index Rules - The dividend index rules have undergone significant changes over the past decade, impacting the percentile rankings and valuations of stocks within these indices [5]. - The first major change occurred in 2013, where the selection method shifted from "dividend yield stock selection, market capitalization weighting" to "dividend yield stock selection, dividend yield weighting," leading to a more balanced representation across sectors [6]. - A second major adjustment took place around 2022, increasing the requirements for sample stocks regarding dividend stability and continuity, influenced partly by the issues faced by real estate companies [7]. Group 2: Impact of Real Estate Sector on Dividend Indices - The real estate sector's practices of high short-term dividends led to inflated dividend yields, which were unsustainable and resulted in significant losses when these companies faced financial difficulties [8]. - Following the rule changes, the requirement for consistent high dividends has mitigated the issues previously caused by real estate stocks, leading to an overall improvement in the valuation metrics of the dividend indices [9]. Group 3: Interpretation of Percentile Data - Percentile data should be viewed as a tool for identifying anomalies rather than a sole basis for investment decisions, as extreme percentile values may indicate underlying issues worth investigating [10].