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结构化回应看好乐道L90人士对理想i8所有主流槽点
理想TOP2· 2025-07-24 14:59
1.没有前备箱,储物空间不足。 首先i8在前备箱/后备箱放置行李能力上确实不如L90。好用的前备箱也的确是有用户价值的,最典型的用户场景之一,去山姆,即使周围都停满了车, 也可以把东西直接放进前备箱。在所有需要再开出来一些再放后备箱的场景里,有大的前备箱都是更方便的。 理想i6大概率也是有前备箱的。 i8没有前备箱的原因在于,理想追求三排车的三排体验尽可能的好,尽可能好的锚点之一是X向(一排指向二排的方向)的空间,基于此决定把前备箱全 部干掉。在干掉前备箱的基础上,理想也谋求尽可能小的风阻。 一些看好L90人士详尽的梳理了潜在的i8不足之处,本文将回应所有主流槽点, 帮助读者与潜在消费者多一个参考的视角。 本文写作得到了一位群友的帮助,没有这位群友,就没有这篇文章。 看好L90人士对i8的槽点主要为: 1.没有前备箱,储物空间不足 2.内部空间不足够大,三排头部空间不足够高 3.后备箱下沉空间不足,指向纯电技术积累不足 4.车偏重,指向轻量化水平不高 5.像MPV,不像SUV 6.车头短碰撞不安全 7.没有ADB大灯 8.冰箱不能电动关闭 前五个槽点本质是理想在风阻/空间/舒适度上做了环环相扣的平衡,最终会在 ...
理想超充站2928座|截至25年7月24日
理想TOP2· 2025-07-24 14:59
北京市 朝阳区 中国石化华运达加油站 为城市4C站,规格:4C × 8 甘肃省 临夏回族自治州 临夏服务区(乌玛高速玛沁方向) 为高速服务区5C站,规格:4C × 4 甘肃省 临夏回族自治州 临夏服务区(乌玛高速乌海方向) 为高速服务区5C站,规格:5C × 4 河北省 保定市 涿州服务区(京港澳高速北京方向) 为高速服务区5C站,规格:2C × 3 5C × 1 河北省 保定市 涿州服务区(京港澳高速深圳方向) 为高速服务区5C站,规格:2C × 3 5C × 1 江西省 上饶市 上饶国际大酒店 为城市4C站,规格:4C × 6 来源:北北自律机 25年07月24日星期四 理想超充 9 新增 1 恢复。 超充建成数:2918→2928座 基于2025年底4000+座目标 还剩1072座 今年新增数进度值:52.40%→52.84% 今年剩余160天 今年时间进度值:56.16% 需每日 6.70 座,达到年底目标值 【附】9 座新增建成 加微信,进群深度交流理想实际经营情况与长期基本面。不是车友群。 天津市 滨海新区 天津名士华庭 为城市4C站,规格:4C × 8 重庆市 南岸区 弹子石环道地面停车场 为城 ...
关于Thor/VLA 一些信息线索
理想TOP2· 2025-07-22 13:22
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Li Auto due to delays in the delivery of NVIDIA's Thor chips, which are critical for the company's new range of vehicles. The delays have prompted Li Auto to accelerate its own chip development efforts. Group 1: Chip Delivery Issues - Li Auto's suppliers were notified that the launch of the upgraded L series range was postponed from March to May due to delays in the delivery of NVIDIA's Thor chips [1] - The initial mass production timeline for the Thor chip was promised for the end of 2024, but this has been pushed back multiple times [1] - The first batch of Thor chips delivered by NVIDIA faced significant engineering and design issues, leading to a reduction in promised performance from 700 TOPS to below 500 TOPS [1] Group 2: Self-Development of Chips - In response to the delays, Li Auto is accelerating its self-developed chip project, aiming for delivery in the first quarter of next year [2] - The cost of the first self-developed chips for Li Auto and its competitors is estimated to be between 300 million to 400 million USD, with ongoing investments for the second chip development [2] - Li Auto is exploring the application of large model technology in vehicles, with a focus on improving feedback and adjustment cycles through self-developed chips [2] Group 3: Challenges with NVIDIA - Li Auto faced unreasonable demands from NVIDIA during the testing of the T chip, which included a refusal to provide a list of issues and solutions [3] - NVIDIA's contract terms with Li Auto were described as lacking penalties for delays and containing unfair clauses [3] - Despite these challenges, Li Auto has successfully launched a fully functional intelligent driving system and is progressing with the upcoming VLA model [3]
理想超充站2916座|截至25年7月22日
理想TOP2· 2025-07-22 13:22
来源:北北自律机 25年07月22日星期二 理想超充 8 新增。 超充建成数:2908→2916座 ———————————————————— 基于2025年底4000+座目标 还剩1084座 今年新增数进度值:51.96%→52.31% 今年剩余162天 今年时间进度值:55.62% 需每日 6.69 座,达到年底目标值 【附】8 座新增建成 北京市 朝阳区 北京科汇时代中心 为城市4C站,规格:4C × 6 江苏省 南京市 南京悦斯荟购物中心 为城市4C站,规格:4C × 6 江苏省 南京市 南京毅达汇创中心 为城市4C站,规格:4C × 6 内蒙古自治区 呼和浩特市 呼和浩特邻里荟B座 为城市4C站,规格:4C × 6 四川省 成都市 成都新都富森美家居 为城市4C站,规格:4C × 6 天津市 河东区 天津东兴路 为城市4C站,规格:4C × 6 重庆市 江津区 先锋服务区(江綦高速江津方向) 重庆市 江津区 先锋服务区(江綦高速綦江方向) 为高速服务区5C站,规格:2C × 6 5C × 2 加微信,进群深度交流理想实际经营情况与长期基本面。不是车友群。 为高速服务区5C站,规格:2C × 6 5C ...
可以留意一下10位业内人士如何看VLA
理想TOP2· 2025-07-21 14:36
Core Viewpoints - The current development of cutting-edge technologies in autonomous driving is not yet fully mature for mass production, with significant challenges remaining to be addressed [1][27][31] - Emerging technologies such as VLA/VLM, diffusion models, closed-loop simulation, and reinforcement learning are seen as potential key directions for future exploration in autonomous driving [6][7][28] - The choice between deepening expertise in autonomous driving or transitioning to embodied intelligence depends on individual circumstances and market dynamics [19][34] Group 1: Current Technology Maturity - The BEV (Bird's Eye View) perception model has reached a level of maturity suitable for mass production, while other models like E2E (End-to-End) are still in the experimental phase [16][31] - There is a consensus that the existing models struggle with corner cases, particularly in complex driving scenarios, indicating that while basic functionalities are in place, advanced capabilities are still lacking [16][24][31] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards utilizing larger models and advanced techniques to enhance scene understanding and decision-making processes in autonomous vehicles [26][28] Group 2: Emerging Technologies - VLA/VLM is viewed as a promising direction for the next generation of autonomous driving, with the potential to improve reasoning capabilities and safety [2][28] - The application of reinforcement learning is recognized as having significant potential, particularly when combined with effective simulation environments [6][32] - Diffusion models are being explored for their ability to generate multi-modal trajectories, which could be beneficial in uncertain driving conditions [7][26] Group 3: Future Directions - Future advancements in autonomous driving technology are expected to focus on enhancing safety, improving passenger experience, and achieving comprehensive scene coverage [20][28] - The integration of closed-loop simulations and data-driven approaches is essential for refining autonomous driving systems and ensuring their reliability [20][30] - The industry is moving towards a data-driven model where the efficiency of data collection, cleaning, labeling, training, and validation will determine competitive advantage [20][22] Group 4: Career Choices - The decision to specialize in autonomous driving or shift to embodied intelligence should consider personal interests, market trends, and the maturity of each field [19][34] - The autonomous driving sector is perceived as having more immediate opportunities for impactful work compared to the still-developing field of embodied intelligence [19][34]
理想超充站2908座|截至25年7月21日
理想TOP2· 2025-07-21 14:36
加微信,进群深度交流理想实际经营情况与长期基本面。不是车友群。 ———————————————————— 基于2025年底4000+座目标 还剩1092座 今年新增数进度值:51.65%→51.96% 今年剩余163天 今年时间进度值:55.34% 需每日 6.70 座,达到年底目标值 【附】7 座新增建成 广东省 江门市 江门白石大道 为城市4C站,规格:4C × 6 广东省 中山市 中山百汇时代广场 为城市4C站,规格:4C × 6 江苏省 扬州 扬州蒋王半岛公园 为城市4C站,规格:4C × 8 四川省 成都市 永兴服务区(蓉遵高速成都方向) 为高速服务区5C站,规格:2C × 3 5C × 1 四川省 成都市 永兴服务区(蓉遵高速遵义方向) 为高速服务区5C站,规格:2C × 3 5C × 1 四川省 成都市 成都佛莱雅花园酒店 为城市4C站,规格:4C × 6 浙江省 宁波市 宁波梦创金谷科创产业园 为城市4C站,规格:4C × 6 来源:北北自律机 25年07月21日星期一 理想超充 7 新增。 超充建成数:2901→2908座 ...
将理想i8销量预期从从6-10K提升至7-12K
理想TOP2· 2025-07-20 11:01
Core Viewpoint - The i8 model is expected to achieve sales between 7,000 to 12,000 units, significantly higher than the previously estimated 6,000 to 10,000 units, due to its competitive features and pricing strategy [2]. Group 1: Sales Projections - Initial sales projection for i8 was set at 6,000 to 10,000 units, based on the assumption that MEGA could achieve monthly sales of 2,000 to 3,000 units, with i8 expected to outperform MEGA by 2 to 3 times [1]. - The revised sales projection for i8 is now 7,000 to 12,000 units, with MEGA expected to maintain monthly sales of over 3,000 units from August to December [2]. Group 2: Product Features and Comparisons - i8's interior quality is noted to be a step above that of L9 and MEGA, featuring enhancements such as a zero-gravity seat in the second row and a 21.4-inch screen, which contribute to a more luxurious feel [2]. - The i8 is positioned as a cost-effective alternative, offering 90% of MEGA's product capabilities at 70% of its price, and 110-115% of L9's capabilities at 85% of its price [2]. - The i8 is described as the "king of product capability" in the 350,000 RMB price segment in China [2]. Group 3: Target Customer Profile - The primary target customers for the i8 are families looking for a three-row electric vehicle, particularly those with two or more children or those needing to transport additional family members [3]. - A significant portion of potential i8 buyers (over 50%) may currently own gasoline vehicles, indicating a broader market appeal beyond just electric vehicle switchers [3]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The i8 is expected to capture orders from the L series, although the exact impact on L series sales remains uncertain [3]. - Customers who find the MEGA's price manageable but are concerned about its size may lean towards the i8, while those who can afford the L9 may also consider the i8 as an alternative [4].
理想超充站2901座|截至25年7月20日
理想TOP2· 2025-07-20 11:01
来源:北北自律机 25年07月20日星期日 理想超充 8 新增。 超充建成数:2893→2901座 基于2025年底4000+座目标 还剩1099座 今年新增数进度值:51.30%→51.65% 今年剩余164天 今年时间进度值:55.07% 需每日 6.70 座,达到年底目标值 【附】8 座新增建成 福建省 龙岩市 龙岩新罗华莲路(近铂瑞酒店宴会中心) 为城市4C站,规格:4C × 6 福建省 厦门市 厦门高崎南十二路100号 为城市/枢纽4C站,规格:4C × 6 广东省 阳江市 阳江铂顿元世纪酒店 为城市4C站,规格:4C × 4 河南省 洛阳市 洛阳建业定鼎府营销中心 为城市5C站,规格:5C × 4 河南省 郑州 郑州金富源 为城市4C站,规格:4C × 6 江苏省 无锡市 无锡堰桥小学西 为城市4C站,规格:4C × 6 江西省 抚州 抚州利兹堡 为城市4C站,规格:4C × 6 辽宁省 沈阳市 沈阳东站检车线 为城市4C站,规格:4C × 6 ———————————————————— 加微信,进群深度交流理想实际经营情况与长期基本面。不是车友群。 ...
群友分析售价20万元以上品牌/车型销量市场
理想TOP2· 2025-07-18 14:10
Core Viewpoints - The main competitors in the new energy vehicle market over the next five years will still be fuel vehicles, with the core competitive point being the differentiated product matrix supply capability for models priced above 200,000 yuan, which currently has significant room for improvement in supply [2][3] - The market share of vehicles priced above 200,000 yuan is expected to exceed 60% in the next 5-10 years, up from the current 30%. The leading brand in this price segment is likely to exceed a 25% market share, potentially surpassing 30%, indicating annual sales exceeding 3 million units [2][3] - The new energy vehicle market is awaiting its "iPhone 4 moment," where technology and blockbuster products mature, leading to a significant increase in market concentration [2][4] Market Analysis - In 2024, the domestic passenger car sales are projected to be approximately 22.6 million units, with fuel vehicles accounting for about 11.5 million units, representing a market share of around 51%. The sales of models priced above 200,000 yuan are estimated at about 6.6 million units, making up 30% of total sales, with fuel vehicles contributing approximately 4.2 million units [3][6] - The market share of fuel vehicles in the 200,000 yuan price range remains substantial, currently at 64%. Despite significant price reductions in the past year to maintain market share, the trend is set, and the market is awaiting the arrival of the "iPhone 4 moment" [3][4] iPhone 4 Moment - The "iPhone 4 moment" refers to two key turning points: the maturity of 3G technology, which allowed smartphones to surpass traditional computers in user experience, and the decline of traditional phone brands' flagship models, which led to a loss of cash flow for R&D and ultimately market exit. This parallels the potential decline in sales of fuel vehicles priced above 200,000 yuan [4][5] Price Segment Analysis - The market share of vehicles priced above 200,000 yuan has increased from 9% in 2019 to 30% in 2023. It is anticipated that this segment will exceed 60% in the next five years, corresponding to sales of at least 12 million units domestically [6][7] - The brands and products in this price segment are crucial for generating sufficient profits to support R&D, branding, and market promotion, creating a flywheel effect. Additionally, this price segment attracts a broad customer base, enhancing brand momentum [6][7] Brand Market Share - In the segment of vehicles priced above 200,000 yuan, the top six fuel vehicle brands hold a market share of approximately 55%, while the top four new energy brands account for about 26-27% [16][17] - The future market structure is expected to resemble the smartphone industry, where a few brands dominate the high-end market. The leading brand in the new energy vehicle segment could capture around 25% of the market share, with annual sales exceeding 3 million units if the overall passenger car sales reach 20 million [17][29] Sales Performance - The average monthly sales of models priced above 200,000 yuan that exceed 10,000 units are defined as "blockbuster products." Currently, only six major fuel vehicle brands and four new energy brands have this capability, with these models accounting for 65% of the overall sales in this price segment [18][19] - The performance of Li Auto is particularly notable, as achieving a market share of 25-30% in the SUV segment priced above 200,000 yuan would significantly enhance its market position before expanding into the sedan market [29][30]
理想超充站2892座|截至25年7月18日
理想TOP2· 2025-07-18 14:10
来源:北北自律机 25年07月18日星期五 理想超充 2 新增。 超充建成数:2890→2892座 广东省 广州 新安服务区(珠三角环线高速广州花都方向) 为高速服务区5C站,规格:2C × 5 5C × 1 基于2025年底4000+座目标 还剩1108座 今年新增数进度值:51.17%→51.25% 今年剩余166天 今年时间进度值:54.52% 需每日 6.67 座,达到年底目标值 【附】2 座新增建成 四川省 成都市 成都美高登A座 为城市5C站,规格:2C × 6 5C × 2 加微信,进群深度交流理想实际经营情况与长期基本面。不是车友群。 ———————————————————— ...