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【乘联分会论坛】10月狭义乘用车零售预计220.0万辆,新能源预计132.0万辆
乘联分会· 2025-10-24 14:28
Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in September showed strong performance driven by the traditional sales peak and the "old-for-new" policy, with significant growth in both overall and new energy vehicle (NEV) sales [2][4]. Group 1: September Market Review - In September, the retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles reached 2.244 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.4% and a month-on-month increase of 11.2% [2]. - Retail sales of new energy narrow-sense passenger vehicles totaled 1.299 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 15.7% and a month-on-month growth of 16.5%, achieving a penetration rate of 57.8% [2]. Group 2: October Market Outlook - October is expected to enter the traditional "Silver October" sales peak, with the National Day holiday's customer gathering effect and year-end policy adjustment expectations driving initial consumer demand [3]. - However, the impact of the "old-for-new" subsidy policy is expected to weaken, leading to potential pressure on market growth in the latter half of the month [3]. Group 3: Manufacturer Sales Trends - Most manufacturers are optimistic about October sales, with major manufacturers setting retail targets that are stable month-on-month. The narrow-sense passenger vehicle retail market is expected to reach around 2.2 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 2.0% [4]. - New energy vehicle retail sales are projected to be around 1.32 million units, with a penetration rate potentially reaching 60%, which would be a historical high [4][8]. Group 4: Weekly Sales Trends - The first week of October saw daily retail sales of 43,500 units, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.7% [5]. - The second week experienced a surge in daily retail sales to 87,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.8% and a month-on-month increase of 43.5% [5]. - The third week saw a decline in daily retail sales to 61,300 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.5% [5]. - The fourth week is expected to stabilize with daily retail sales of 68,600 units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 22.4% [5]. - The fifth week is projected to see an increase in daily retail sales to 118,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.5% but a month-on-month decrease of 15.9% [5]. Group 5: Market Structure Differentiation - After the National Day holiday, terminal discounts have shown a seasonal slight recovery, with the overall automotive market operating smoothly [7]. - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy has significantly impacted the market, with over 10 million applications for subsidies by October 22, 2025 [7]. - The market is expected to be supported by continued vehicle scrappage and the upcoming end-of-year tax subsidy adjustments for new energy vehicles, which may drive pre-purchase demand [7].
【深度分析】2025年9月份全国乘用车市场深度分析报告
乘联分会· 2025-10-23 08:38
Overall Market - The narrow passenger car production and sales data for September 2025 shows a total production of 2,846,384 units, with wholesale and retail figures at 2,796,051 and 2,243,658 units respectively [6][10]. - The broad passenger car market also reflects similar trends, with a total production of 2,880,568 units and wholesale and retail figures at 2,828,011 and 2,268,751 units respectively [10][12]. Vehicle Category Segmentation - The market share changes among different vehicle categories indicate that sedans, MPVs, and SUVs have varying growth rates, with SUVs showing a notable increase in both sales and market share [18][20]. - For September 2025, the retail sales of sedans reached 1,021,179 units, with a year-on-year growth of 4.9%, while SUVs sold 1,129,996 units, marking an 8.9% increase [15][18]. Country Segmentation - The market share changes by country show that domestic brands are gaining traction, with a significant increase in sales and market share compared to foreign brands [25][28]. - In September 2025, domestic SUVs accounted for 34.8% of the total market share, while German sedans held a smaller share of 5.9% [25][26]. Brand Positioning Segmentation - The analysis of brand categories reveals that domestic brands are performing well, with a year-on-year growth of 12.5% in retail sales, while mainstream joint ventures are experiencing a decline [30][33]. - In September 2025, the retail sales of domestic SUVs reached 780,000 units, representing 34.8% of the total market [33]. Price Positioning Segmentation - The market share changes across different price segments indicate that vehicles priced below 10 million yuan are experiencing significant growth, with retail sales of 637,333 units in September 2025, reflecting a 14.7% increase [37][38]. - The price segment of 30-40 million yuan saw a retail sales figure of 181,993 units, with a year-on-year growth of 10.7% [37].
【保值率】2025年9月中国汽车保值率报告
乘联分会· 2025-10-23 08:38
Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of vehicle resale value as a reflection of brand strength, product quality, and market perception, providing critical data for various automotive business operations [2][4] Policy Direction - The automotive industry has become a key economic pillar in China, contributing approximately 10% to the national GDP. The recent growth stabilization plan includes 15 specific measures aimed at enhancing the efficiency of used car transactions and promoting high-quality supply to stimulate demand [6] Market Trends - The automotive market is experiencing fluctuations in vehicle supply, with discussions around subsidies impacting new car sales and subsequently affecting the used car market. The market was active in early September but slowed down towards the end of the month, likely in preparation for the upcoming holiday marketing activities [11] Resale Value Analysis - The resale values of mainstream vehicle models have increased due to new car price rebounds driven by subsidy limits. However, high-end models, particularly MPVs, have seen a decline in resale value. Recent new models launched by manufacturers offer better cost-performance ratios [15] Quality Control in New Energy Vehicles - Strengthening quality supervision is a key measure to combat industry "involution." A special inspection initiative covers various emerging industries, including new energy vehicles, ensuring that the quality of sampled products matches market offerings [17] New Energy Vehicle Resale Value - The resale value of plug-in hybrid vehicles has decreased, influenced by price cuts from new models. While domestic brands are leading the development of electric vehicles, the second-hand market for hybrids faces challenges due to performance disadvantages compared to newer models [20]
【快讯】每日快讯(2025年10月23日)
乘联分会· 2025-10-23 08:38
Domestic News - The "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0" was officially released, outlining six major goals for China's automotive industry by 2040, including a 60% reduction in carbon emissions from peak levels by 2040 and an 80% penetration rate of new energy vehicles [6] - Qingdao announced adjustments to the 2025 automobile trade-in subsidy rules, which will be effective from September 28, 2025, to December 31, 2025, requiring public lottery for subsidy eligibility [7] - SAIC Group established a new company, SAIC Forward Automotive Technology, with a registered capital of 20 million yuan, focusing on automotive parts R&D and sales [8] - SAIC Volkswagen signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with German robotics company Neura Robotics to develop cognitive robotic systems for automotive manufacturing [9] - BYD plans to invest 8.8 billion yuan in a new battery project in Taizhou, aiming for an annual production capacity of 22 GWh of lithium iron phosphate blade batteries [10] - Hongmeng Zhixing launched a worry-free driving assistance service with coverage up to 5 million yuan, available for customers who place orders by November 3, 2025 [11] - Huawei's Qian Kun Intelligent Driving CAS 4.0 system added a driver incapacitation assistance feature to enhance safety for long-distance drivers [12] - Geely established a new company, Geely Jiyao Tongxing Holdings, with a registered capital of 1 billion yuan, focusing on engineering and technology research [13] Foreign News - General Motors plans to discontinue support for Apple CarPlay and Android Auto by 2028, transitioning to a unified in-car experience with a new computing platform [15] - Tata Technologies announced a strategic partnership with Synopsys to accelerate the transition to software-defined mobility, leveraging each other's expertise [16] - Waymo will begin human-driven testing at Newark Airport, laying the groundwork for future autonomous ride-hailing services [17] - Baidu plans to launch the world's first driverless taxi without a steering wheel in Switzerland by 2027, in collaboration with Swiss Post [18] Commercial Vehicles - Honda China and Dongfeng Group announced a joint initiative to demonstrate hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles in Wuhan, with plans to expand to other cities [19] - The Tuyano X6 won the Innovation Gold Award at the 79th Plovdiv International Technical Fair, showcasing China's manufacturing competitiveness [20] - The 2026 model of Great Wall's pickup truck, the King Kong Cannon, was launched with prices ranging from 89,800 to 120,800 yuan [21] - Weichai's new energy Blue Sky VAN was globally launched, featuring efficient power systems and a focus on comfort and environmental sustainability [22][23]
【快讯】每日快讯(2025年10月22日)
乘联分会· 2025-10-22 08:42
Domestic News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to revise the national standard for vehicle factory certificates to enhance the management of new energy vehicles and ensure product safety [2] - Guangdong Province has issued an action plan to support the application of industrial intelligent computing power and the development of industrial software and intelligent equipment [3] - Guangzhou is actively seeking to pilot reforms in automotive circulation consumption, including promoting the trade-in of old vehicles and supporting the development of the second-hand car market [4] - BYD has formed a strategic partnership with Honor to explore the integration of mobile and automotive ecosystems [5] - Zeekr has signed a cooperation agreement with Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation to support major aerospace missions [6] - The Avita 12 is set to become the first domestic new energy vehicle to conduct polar testing in Antarctica, marking a significant milestone in extreme environment vehicle testing [7] - CATL plans to establish over 2,500 "chocolate" battery swap stations across more than 120 cities in China by 2026 [8] - Weilan Battery has increased its registered capital to approximately 2.14 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of about 14% [9] International News - France and Spain are urging the EU to maintain the 2035 ban on the sale of fuel vehicles, emphasizing the importance of achieving zero emissions from vehicles [11] - Thailand's domestic car sales in September saw a year-on-year increase of 23.82%, up from 5.38% in August [12] - Mercedes-Benz Canada has announced that its electric vehicle owners can now access Tesla's Supercharger network [13] - Volvo has launched a free home charging plan for new electric vehicle buyers in Sweden, offering one year of free charging [14] Commercial Vehicles - CATL reported that commercial power batteries currently account for nearly 20% of its total shipments, indicating rapid growth in this segment [16] - Foton has officially launched its pure electric light truck, marking a significant step in the transition to electric vehicles in the light truck sector [17] - Dongfeng has introduced its Z9 pickup truck in Chile, showcasing its commitment to expanding its presence in international markets [18] - FAW Jiefang and Guoxuan High-Tech are deepening their collaboration to advance the development of new energy commercial vehicles [19]
【周度分析】车市扫描(2025年10月13日-10月19日)
乘联分会· 2025-10-22 08:42
Group 1: Market Overview - From October 1 to 19, the national passenger car retail market sold 1.128 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, but a month-on-month increase of 7%. Cumulative retail sales for the year reached 18.136 million units, up 8% year-on-year [2][5] - During the same period, wholesale of passenger cars reached 1.155 million units, down 5% year-on-year but flat compared to the previous month. Year-to-date wholesale totaled 22.002 million units, an increase of 12% year-on-year [2][8] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the passenger car market reached 56.1% with retail sales of 632,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 5% [2][5] Group 2: Monthly Sales Trends - Daily average retail sales in the first week of October were 44,000 units, down 18% year-on-year, while the second week saw an increase to 85,000 units, up 7% year-on-year [4][5] - The third week recorded a daily average of 63,000 units, a slight decrease of 3% year-on-year [5] Group 3: Wholesale Trends - Daily average wholesale in the first week of October was 30,000 units, down 21% year-on-year, while the second week saw a slight decrease to 76,000 units, down 1% year-on-year [7][8] - The third week recorded a daily average of 87,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 1% [7] Group 4: Investment and Production - In the first nine months of 2025, automotive investment grew by 19%, production increased by 11%, and consumption rose by 1% [9] - The production of automobiles in September reached 3.23 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with NEVs accounting for 1.58 million units, up 20% [9] Group 5: Battery Market Insights - In September, the production of power batteries reached 151 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 50%, with a cumulative production of 1,122 GWh for the first nine months, up 44% [10][11] - The market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries has increased, with CATL surpassing BYD in market share for these batteries [11] Group 6: Pickup Truck Market Analysis - In September 2025, the pickup truck market sold 46,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% but a month-on-month increase of 14.6% [12] - Cumulative sales for the first nine months reached 432,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [12][13]
【地方市场】2025年9月上海汽车市场上牌情况
乘联分会· 2025-10-22 08:42
点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 本文全文共 339 字,阅读全文约需 1 分钟 2025年9月上海总体上牌数是 48 ,942 ,同比增长 24.12% ,环比增长 11.23% 。 9月具体分类型的上牌情况是:进口小客车(含轿车) 2,699 ;国产轿车 4,514 ;小型客车(除轿车) 7 , 651 ;新能源小客车 30, 998 ;大型客车 668 ;小型、大型货车分别是 1 , 167 和 1 , 245 。 三信息 2025年9月上海各车型上牌量同比情况 | 类型 | 2025年 | ਰੇ H | ਰੇ H | 2025年 | 1-ਰੇ H | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਰੇ H | 环比 | 同比 | 1-9月 | 同比 | | 进口小客车 (含轿车) | 2699 | 16.59% | -2.17% | 23509 | -18.38% | | 国产轿车 | 4514 | 14.57% | 6.14% | 35745 | -19.89% | | 小型客车 (除轿车) | 7651 | 11.95% | 3.41% | 62736 | -1 ...
【新能源周报】新能源汽车行业信息周报(2025年10月13日-10月19日)
乘联分会· 2025-10-21 09:31
Industry Information - Guoxuan High-Tech has achieved a key breakthrough in all-solid-state battery technology, with the all-solid-state Jinshi battery currently in the pilot production stage [12] - In the first three quarters of this year, the export share of China's self-owned electric vehicle brands reached 59.5% [12][14] - Beijing has added 48,000 new motor vehicle parking spaces this year, significantly improving the parking situation [14] - Canada’s local government is calling for the removal of the 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles [14][15] - Xiaomi's fund has invested in automotive parts company Shengshi Qichuang, which focuses on automotive powertrain system sensors [15] - China has built the world's largest charging network, with 17.348 million charging facilities by the end of August 2025 [16] - The total number of motor vehicles in China has reached 460 million, with 360 million being cars [16] - Li Auto and Xinwanda have established a battery company, with a registered capital of 300 million yuan [16] - JD.com will collaborate with CATL and GAC to launch a new car during the Double 11 shopping festival [17] - Global electric vehicle sales surpassed 2 million units for the first time in September 2025, with China leading the market [18] - In September, China's power battery installation volume reached 76.0 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 39.5% [19] - Over 60% of new passenger cars sold in China are equipped with combined driving assistance features [19] - The establishment of a new automotive sales company under Seres, with a registered capital of 50 million yuan [20] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to develop a new energy vehicle industry development plan for the 14th Five-Year Plan [21] - A significant breakthrough in solid-state lithium batteries has been achieved, with a 100 kg battery expected to exceed 1000 km in range [23] - The market for retired power batteries is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan, with a large-scale retirement phase approaching [24] Policy Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is proposing to raise the requirements for vehicle manufacturers' intelligence and connectivity capabilities and production access thresholds [27] - The Shaoxing City Shangyu District has published a proposal for the second batch of 2024 and the first batch of 2025 charging infrastructure construction subsidies [31] - Xinjiang Hami City is seeking public opinions on the management measures for urban charging piles [32] - The China Automotive Engineering Research Institute has released a national mandatory energy efficiency standard for electric vehicle power supply equipment [34] - By the end of 2027, the goal is to establish 28 million charging facilities nationwide, providing over 300 million kilowatts of public charging capacity [39]
【快讯】每日快讯(2025年10月21日)
乘联分会· 2025-10-21 09:31
Domestic News - The number of applications for the national vehicle trade-in program has exceeded 8.3 million this year, with an average of over 30,000 applications per day [3] - As of September 2025, the total number of electric vehicle charging infrastructure reached 18.063 million, a year-on-year increase of 54.5% [4] - Dongfeng Motor has established a self-controlled solid-state battery supply chain, achieving battery products with energy densities of 240Wh/kg and 350Wh/kg, and a maximum range exceeding 1000 kilometers [5] - SAIC Group plans to start local assembly operations in Malaysia in the first quarter of 2026, with the first model expected to be the MG S5 [6] - Dongfeng Honda has launched a "lifetime warranty" service for its powertrain components, covering key parts without mileage or time limits [8] - GAC Group and Huawei's new brand "Qijing" plans to launch its first model in mid-2026, featuring Huawei's intelligent solutions [9] - A new battery technology company has been established by NIO and CATL, focusing on battery leasing and recycling [10] - Meituan's autonomous delivery vehicles have achieved large-scale deployment in Shenzhen, completing 5 million orders and covering over 15 million kilometers [11] International News - Germany plans to restart electric vehicle purchase subsidies, allocating €3 billion to support low- and middle-income families in buying zero-emission vehicles [12] - Indonesia aims to achieve domestic automobile production within the next three years, with budget allocations already in place [13] - Canada's electric vehicle incentive program has officially ended, having provided approximately $2.6 billion in subsidies since its launch [14] - Tesla has confirmed that the new generation Roadster will debut this year, with ambitious performance targets including a 0-100 km/h acceleration in under one second [15] Commercial Vehicles - The Yuantong Star F3E has been launched in the southern market, with 188 orders signed at the release event [17] - The Jianghuai 1 Card has launched two new models, focusing on different market needs for urban logistics [18] - The Zhengzhou Nissan Frontier Pro pickup, designed and produced in China, will officially start pre-sales at the end of October [19] - China National Heavy Duty Truck exported 15,000 heavy trucks in September, setting a new record for the industry [20]
【联合发布】2025年8月汽车智能网联洞察报告
乘联分会· 2025-10-21 09:31
点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 本文全文共 1552 字,阅读全文约需 5 分钟 中国新能源汽车市场走势 中国新能源汽车市场,2025年9月销售160.4万辆,比上升15.0%,同比增长24.5%,渗透率达到 49.7%,渗透率维持较高水平 。 装车率统计 ——级别分布 2025年1-8月新能源乘用车L2级及以上的辅助驾驶功能装车率达到86.8%,16万以下市场中智驾装车 率进一步增长。随着技术能力提升叠加成本下降,推动智能辅助驾驶搭载率不断提升 。 中国新能源汽车市场结构 2025年9月,新能源轿车占比42.4%,比去年同期下滑2.9个百分点。新能源SUV份额达到47.7%,份 额较同期上升1.1个百分点。2025年9月,细分市场全部实现增长,商用车增速整体高于乘用车,半 挂牵引车增长179.6%。乘用车市场中轿车、MPV、SUV增幅分别为16.6%、41.6%和26.9% 。 其中新能源乘用车销售151.6万辆,同比增长22.8%;新能源商用车销售8.8万辆,同比增长65.7% 。 新能源乘用车市场延续增长态势,消费者对新能源车接受度持续提升,叠加以旧换新政策,共同推 动换购需求增长,推动渗透率持续攀升。 ...