当地时间7月9日， 美股三大指数集体上涨。截至收盘， 纳斯达克指数上涨0.94%， 创历史新高； 道 琼斯工业指数上涨0.49%，标普500指数上涨0.61%。 当地时间7月9日，美联储公布联邦公开市场委员会6月17日至18日的会议纪要。 会议纪要显示，美联储 同意将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.5%之间。 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普9日上午致信菲律宾、文莱、摩尔多瓦、阿尔及利亚、伊拉克和利比亚6 个国家的领导人，通知他们将对这些国家输美商品征收新关税，新税率 将从8月1日起生效。 上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到 先得！ 美联储会议纪要公布 内部分歧明显 美股大型科技股 多数上涨 ，美国科技七巨头指数上涨1.25%。 据央视新闻报道， 美联储公布的6月会议纪要 显示，美联储同意将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25%至4.5%之间。与会者一致认为，尽管净出口波动影响了数据，但近期指标表明经济活 动继续稳步扩张。失业率保持在低位，劳动力市场状况依然稳健，通胀率仍然略高。 与会者 一致认为，经济前景的不确定性有所减弱但仍然居高不下。 英伟达 ...

当地时间7月9日，美股三大指数高开，纳斯达克指数盘中创历史新高， 英伟达开盘后涨逾2%，股价创 历史新高，成为历史上首家 总市值突破4万亿美元 的公司。 截至北京时间23:28，道琼斯工业指数、纳斯达克指数、标普500指数分别上涨0.13%、0.59%、0.29%。 近日，Loop Capital分析师Ananda Baruah将英伟达目标价从175美元/股上调至250美元 /股 ，这一水平相 当于约6万亿美元的市值。 文章封面图来源于AI，以上观点来自相关机构，不代表天天基金的观点，不对观点的准确性 和完整性做任何保证。收益率数据仅供参考，过往业绩和走势风格不预示未来表现，不构成 ↓ 点击"阅读原文" 而美国投行Wedbush的分析师Dan Ives预计，英伟达的市值可能会在未来18个月内达到5万亿美元。科技 股在今年下半年的表现将非常强劲。他看涨的原因是，在未来3年，企业和政府围绕AI技术的相关支出 将达到2万亿美元，投资者依然低估了这些支出将会带来的增长浪潮。 但华尔街知名大空头Jim Chanos认为，围绕AI热潮的整个生态系统让人联想起21世纪初的互联网泡沫。 一旦市场收缩，企业很可能减少资本支出， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent disclosures of the second quarter reports by various mutual funds, highlighting significant portfolio adjustments and investment strategies in both equity and bond markets, reflecting the evolving market conditions and opportunities [2][4][7]. Equity Fund Adjustments - In Q2, the A-share market experienced significant differentiation, with structural opportunities emerging. High-dividend stocks gained attention, with the banking index rising over 12%, while small-cap stocks saw a more than 20% increase [4]. - The Samei Fund's mixed fund focused on the North Exchange, with its top ten holdings entirely consisting of companies listed on the North Exchange, particularly in hard technology sectors like biomedicine and new energy materials. The fund achieved a net value growth of over 50% in the first half of the year [4][5]. - The Samei Fund's manager indicated a strategic shift back to the robotics sector, anticipating a production ramp-up in humanoid robots by 2025, driven by major manufacturers and technological breakthroughs [5][6]. Bond Fund Performance - The bond market saw significant growth in fund sizes during Q2, influenced by changes in risk appetite and monetary policy. The 10-year government bond yield stabilized around 1.65% [7][8]. - The Huian Fund's short-term bond fund experienced a dramatic increase in size from 1.98 billion to 19.74 billion, marking a nearly ninefold growth due to strategic positioning ahead of market movements [8][9]. - The Debang Fund's short bond fund also saw its size grow from 2.8 billion to 6.371 billion, reflecting a 1.28 times increase, with a focus on high-grade credit bonds and interest rate strategies [8][9]. Investment Strategies - The Samei Fund's manager emphasized a focus on high-growth sectors, particularly in robotics and financial technology, indicating a clear growth-oriented investment style [6]. - The Debang Fund's manager revealed a strategy combining ticket assets with volatile assets, primarily investing in high-quality urban investment bonds while adjusting the portfolio towards longer-duration bonds [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the latest trends in northbound capital flows in the Chinese A-share market, highlighting significant increases in holdings across various sectors, particularly in construction decoration and retail, while also noting declines in certain industries. Group 1: Northbound Capital Holdings - As of the end of Q2 2025, northbound funds held shares in 2,655 A-share companies, totaling 122.81 billion shares, a 3.18% increase from Q1 2025. The market value of these holdings reached 2.28 trillion yuan, up 2.23% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Northbound funds' shareholding accounted for 1.98% of circulating A-shares, a slight increase of 0.05 percentage points from the previous quarter, while the market value proportion decreased by 0.02 percentage points to 3.12% [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - In Q2 2025, over 60% of the 20 sectors saw increased holdings from northbound funds, with construction decoration and retail sectors showing remarkable growth, both exceeding 20% [3] - The construction decoration sector saw a 25.88% increase in holdings, reaching 5.665 billion shares, with a market value of 29.45 billion yuan. The retail sector also experienced a 25.79% increase, totaling 1.48 billion shares and a market value of 19.44 billion yuan [3] - The retail sector's performance was reflected in a 6.22% increase in the retail index, ranking 10th among 31 industries, with retail sales in the first five months of 2025 totaling 20.32 trillion yuan, a 5% year-on-year increase [3] Group 3: Declines in Certain Industries - The textile and apparel, electronics, and home appliances sectors saw a decline in holdings, each dropping over 10% from Q1 2025. The oil and petrochemical, computer, and media sectors also experienced declines exceeding 5% [4][5] - Specifically, the textile and apparel sector saw a 15.59% decrease in holdings, with a market value of 5.9 billion yuan, while the electronics sector decreased by 13.15% [5] Group 4: Major Holdings - The largest holding among northbound funds was Ningde Times, with a market value of approximately 153.08 billion yuan, an increase of 12.73 billion yuan, and a holding of 607 million shares, representing 15.55% of circulating A-shares [6][8] - Guizhou Moutai was the second-largest holding, with a market value exceeding 100 billion yuan but saw a significant reduction of 21.86 billion yuan, a 17.55% decline [6][8] - Other notable companies in the top holdings included Midea Group, China Merchants Bank, and BYD, among others [7][8] Group 5: Significant Increases in Specific Companies - Over 1,300 stocks saw increased holdings from northbound funds in Q2 2025, with 199 companies experiencing increases of over 100%. The electronics sector had 29 companies, while the pharmaceutical and power equipment sectors had 17 each [9] - Notably, 37 A-share companies with a market value exceeding 1 billion yuan saw increases of over 50% in holdings, with Baili Tianheng and New Yi Sheng exceeding 270% [9][10]

（截图来源：东方财富网） 如果说真是一场牛市，有几点要注意： 1.牛市一定要远离赚钱的朋友，因为他们会让你失心疯的，你是很容易追高的！ 以下文章来源于巴蜀养基场 ，作者九思基哥 巴蜀养基场 . 做好的理财经理教育，成为公募基金财富管理领域赋能的领先品牌，目前已服务280+金融机构和 100,000+理财经理。提供降费降佣背景下的行业各项解决方案（咨询、辅导、培训、基金产品测评、营 销策划等服务）基哥 18608036474（V信同号） "历史给我们最大的教训就是人类不会从历史中汲取任何教训。" ——萧伯纳 最近的确感觉到市场比较躁动。大盘盘中突破3500点了。 2.要记住"牛市是收获的季节，不是播种的时刻"！ 3.还有一点要记住：大部分散户都是在牛市亏钱的！ 好了，说了这么多，不是让大家不要投资，而是要抱着慎之又慎的态度去配置基金，千万不要让自 己迷失在狂躁的氛围之中，必须"三分醉七分醒"。 投资前一定要想清楚：你的投资目标 投资都是为了赚钱，但是赚钱这个目标太抽象，不好界定。 往往为了赚钱会让我们过度自信或者过度保守。 现在想想，我本来是因为有点闲钱，想通过买基金赚点小钱，是想通过钱生钱。 这里有个暗含潜台 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a rise and subsequent fall, with the Shanghai Composite Index losing the 3500-point mark, driven by various factors including economic indicators and market sentiment [1][5][6]. Market Performance - The two markets had a total trading volume of 1.51 trillion yuan, with sectors like diversified finance, banking, and media showing gains, while insurance, semiconductors, and non-ferrous metals faced declines [3][6]. - Analysts suggest that a sustained increase in trading volume above 1.6 trillion yuan and a stable breakthrough of the 3500-point level could open up further upward potential for the index [4][6]. Economic Indicators - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached a 14-month high, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, indicating a potential economic stabilization and positive market sentiment [8][10]. - The rise in CPI was attributed to a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices and effective policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [10]. International Relations - Recent developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations, including a planned meeting between U.S. Commerce Secretary and Chinese officials, may positively influence market sentiment [11][12]. - The U.S. has postponed the implementation of tariffs on certain countries, which could alleviate some market pressures and provide a more favorable environment for negotiations [13][14][18]. Market Outlook - There is a growing sentiment that the A-share market may be entering a bull market phase, with institutions like CITIC Securities predicting a significant upward trend in equity assets over the next year [20]. - The market is currently viewed as being in the early stages of a bull market, with a focus on structural growth rather than rapid increases [20][22]. Sector Focus - Analysts recommend focusing on sectors that may benefit from current economic conditions, including electronics, machinery, textiles, chemicals, and agriculture, which are expected to see positive performance due to export substitution benefits [19][20]. - The upcoming earnings reports in July are anticipated to shift market focus towards sectors with improving performance, particularly large-cap stocks [24][25]. Performance Trends - Historical data indicates that large-cap stocks tend to outperform small-cap stocks during July, with a 60% probability of outperforming the overall market [24]. - Resource products and AI computing are highlighted as key performance indicators for the upcoming earnings season, with expectations of price increases in sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals [25][28].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the global capital market driven by the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBB) and its implications for various industries, alongside the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and global trade dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" - The OBBB was passed by the U.S. Senate after overcoming internal party divisions and external opposition, marking a pivotal moment in Trump's policy agenda [3][4]. - The act focuses on three main areas: large-scale tax cuts favoring the wealthy, adjustments in government spending with increased defense budgets and reduced social welfare, and raising the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion, the largest adjustment in U.S. history [7][8]. - The act creates a dichotomy in industry impacts, benefiting traditional energy, manufacturing, real estate, and defense sectors while imposing pressures on clean energy, healthcare, and food industries due to reduced incentives [8][9]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve has paused interest rate changes four times, with market expectations leaning towards two rate cuts by the end of the year, potentially starting in September [14][15]. - Trump's push for immediate rate cuts contrasts with the Fed's cautious approach, which is influenced by high unemployment and inflation uncertainties stemming from tariffs and fiscal stimulus [16][20]. - Current economic conditions differ from previous cycles, with fiscal expansion and tariff uncertainties constraining the Fed's decision-making space [20]. Group 3: Global Trade Dynamics - The expiration of tariff exemptions on July 9 has heightened tensions, with Trump announcing new tariffs on imports from 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, effective August 1 [21][24]. - The trade landscape remains volatile, with previous tariff announcements causing market fluctuations and ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China [25][26]. Group 4: Future Market Considerations - The article emphasizes the need for diversified asset allocation in response to the evolving global landscape, highlighting the importance of low correlation among assets for risk mitigation [29][30]. - It suggests focusing on sectors aligned with new productivity paradigms, such as AI and high-end manufacturing, as potential growth areas in the A-share and Hong Kong markets [30]. - The importance of cash flow assets and maintaining liquidity is underscored, as these can provide stability in a fluctuating market environment [32][34].

Core Viewpoint - As of the end of Q2 2025, northbound funds held a total of 3,572 A-shares with a combined market value of 2.28 trillion yuan, reflecting an increase of approximately 500 billion yuan compared to the end of Q1 2025 [1]. Group 1: Northbound Fund Holdings - Northbound funds increased their holdings in seven industries by over 10% compared to the end of Q1 2025, including retail, construction decoration, telecommunications, defense, comprehensive, non-bank financials, and steel [1]. - Conversely, the household appliances, electronics, and textile and apparel sectors saw a decline in holdings of over 10% [1]. Group 2: Top Holdings and Changes - The top ten stocks held by northbound funds at the end of Q2 2025 included Ningde Times, Kweichow Moutai, Midea Group, China Merchants Bank, Yangtze Power, BYD, Ping An Insurance, Zijin Mining, Huichuan Technology, and Mindray Medical [1]. - Notably, the market value of holdings in Ningde Times was nearly 153.1 billion yuan, while Kweichow Moutai and Midea Group had holdings valued at over 102.7 billion yuan and approximately 74.2 billion yuan, respectively [1]. Group 3: Net Buying and Selling - In Q2 2025, northbound funds recorded a net purchase of 54.77 billion yuan in A-shares, marking the second consecutive quarter of net buying [2]. - The top three stocks with the highest net buying amounts were Ningde Times (12.58 billion yuan), Hengrui Medicine (7.36 billion yuan), and Dongpeng Beverage (4.04 billion yuan) [2]. - The stocks with the largest net selling amounts included Kweichow Moutai (10.32 billion yuan), Midea Group (8.13 billion yuan), and Wuliangye (4.27 billion yuan) [2].

近期 京东 、阿里、美团外卖纷纷加大补贴力度，外卖大战白热化态势明显。 7月8日下午， 京东 黑板报宣布， 京东 外卖正式上线4个月，已有近200个餐饮品牌在京东 外卖上销量突破百万。瑞幸、库迪、蜜雪冰城等成为京东外卖上首批销量破亿品牌， 霸王茶 姬 、 古茗 、塔斯汀、华莱士等超10个品牌销量破千万，肯德基、 麦当劳 、 海底捞 、 星 巴克 、汉堡王、 小菜园 、南城香、鱼你在一起、袁记云饺、紫燕百味鸡等品牌上线后销量 快速突破百万。 在这场即时零售巨头战争中，奶茶这枚"棋子"成最直接的受益者。论价格，大部分正餐商家 不参与活动，且很多品质连锁店的客单价要远高于二十多元的门槛；而一杯奶茶十多块钱， 如果单杯凑不到最低消费可以点两杯，或者加几元钱小料凑单。其次，夏季是茶饮消费旺 季，本就具备高频属性，一张满减券往往"引爆"成倍销量，补贴效果立竿见影。 如今，平台补贴成为茶饮市场营收增长的重要抓手，而现制茶饮行业呈现高度连锁化，截至 2024年末，蜜雪冰城全球门店总数达到4.6万家， 古茗 、 沪上阿姨 、 奈雪的茶 、 茶百道 、 霸王茶姬 门店分别为9914家、9176家、1798家、8395家、6440 ...

Core Viewpoint - China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) has launched a public offering of 4.9 billion yuan convertible bonds, which is the second-largest issuance of convertible bonds this year, amid a low supply of new bonds in the market [1][4]. Group 1: Convertible Bond Issuance - The convertible bond, named "CGN Convertible Bond," has an initial conversion price of 3.67 yuan per share and a credit rating of AAA [4]. - The funds raised will be used for the construction of the 5th and 6th units of the Lufeng Nuclear Power Plant in Guangdong [5]. - The issuance is expected to improve the market's supply-demand situation, as the convertible bond is considered a top-tier product due to its size and rating [7]. Group 2: Market Context - The market for convertible bonds is currently experiencing a decline in new issuances, while the number of bonds being delisted, particularly bank convertible bonds, is increasing [1][8]. - Recent delistings include the Hangzhou Bank Convertible Bond and the South Bank Convertible Bond, indicating a tightening market for convertible bonds [8]. Group 3: Impact on Subscription Rate - Historical data shows a positive correlation between the issuance size of convertible bonds and the subscription rate, with larger issuances typically resulting in higher subscription rates [10][11]. - The subscription rate for CGN's convertible bond is expected to be significantly higher, although it may be influenced by the participation of the controlling shareholder, CGN Group [12].