创始人兼首席投资官 凯丰投资 总经理、首席产品配置官 袁巍 华安合鑫 董事长兼投资总监 曲天石 彭博大中华区 高级经济学家 廖启承 (CFA, CQF) 彭博行业研究 刘一民 彭博大中华区 Sean Ho 聚焦权益与固收，展望宏观与量化 州 等城市。行业领袖将与彭博经济学家、彭博行业专家共同讲述对当前市场走势的洞察与研判， 探讨业界普遍面临的挑战与破局之道，并分享科技助力投资决策更加明智的实践经验。 深圳场主题： 2025年6月19日（星期四） | 15:30 - 18:00 (15:30 注册签到，16:00活动开始) 深圳 （详细活动地址将在确认函中提供） 2025年即将过半，我们见证了美国关税政策、地缘政治博弈等因素频频导致全球宏观格局震荡， 引发市场避险情绪。而中国市场凭借经济复苏、融资需求高涨而备受投资者关注，境内外多元化 2025年彭博私募投资策略闭门交流会系列活动（深圳场） 资产配置机遇显现，吸引多家国际对冲基金在此落子布局。与此同时，人工智能（AI）等前沿科 技的蓬勃发展不仅使科技股表现亮眼、拉动股指上涨，还为量化投研高效赋能，成为私募机构在 不确定性中破局取胜的关键工具。 继上海场圆满举办后 ...

Core Insights - BNP Paribas has launched its Exane equity research model on Bloomberg terminals, allowing clients to seamlessly integrate leading stock analysis into their workflows [1][2] - The collaboration aims to enhance the ability of buy-side clients to make informed investment decisions through access to comprehensive market insights [2][3] Group 1: Company Overview - BNP Paribas Exane has been awarded the "Best Provider of Industry Research in Developed European Markets" by Extel for eight consecutive years, indicating its strong reputation in the research sector [2] - Exane covers over 1,000 stocks globally, with a recent expansion of its U.S. stock coverage to over 300, focusing on sectors such as Technology, Media, Telecom (TMT), Consumer Goods, Healthcare, and Industrials [2] - Exane operates with a robust business model across three complementary lines: cash equities, structured solutions, and asset management, with a global presence in nine offices [4][5] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships - The partnership with Bloomberg allows BNP Paribas Exane to provide its clients with direct access to research models and reports, enhancing the decision-making process for investors [2] - Bloomberg's research solutions, in collaboration with BNP Paribas Exane, aim to simplify the research workflow for investment firms, enabling quicker and more informed decisions [3] Group 3: Company Structure and Operations - BNP Paribas operates in 64 countries with nearly 178,000 employees, offering a wide range of financial services including commercial banking, investment services, and corporate banking [6] - The group emphasizes corporate social responsibility in its operations, aiming for sustainable development while maintaining robust performance [6]

Core Insights - The article discusses the anticipated delay of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts to Q4 2025, indicating a potential shift in the yield curve from a "bear steepening" to a "bull steepening" phase as market participants adjust their expectations for inflation and economic growth [3][10]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The market now expects the Federal Reserve to initiate rate cuts in Q4 2025, aligning with the company's assessment that rates could drop below 3% once the easing cycle begins [7]. - Current market pricing suggests a terminal rate of 3.35%, which is higher than the company's estimated reasonable rate of 2.75% [7]. - There is a 20% probability that the Federal Reserve will lower rates to below 2.25% by the end of 2026, based on risk-neutral distribution models [7]. Group 2: Yield Curve Dynamics - The yield curve is currently experiencing a "bear steepening" phase, with short-term rates stable while long-term rates rise due to supply pressures and concerns over fiscal sustainability [3][10]. - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is approaching a technical resistance level of 5%, which may provide temporary support for long-term rates, limiting further upward movement [3]. Group 3: Credit Market Insights - The credit spread of Chinese dollar-denominated bonds is influenced by U.S.-China trade tensions, with recent fluctuations reflecting market sensitivity to policy signals [11][12]. - The Peterson Institute reports that the average tariff on U.S. exports to China has risen to 126.5%, impacting the credit spread dynamics [12]. - Recent policy directions from China's central government aim to stimulate consumption and stabilize the real estate market, which may enhance risk appetite and affect credit spreads [14]. Group 4: Asset-Backed Securities - Major U.S. banks are showing caution in their demand for agency MBS, with a notable reduction in holdings as they navigate interest rate risks [19]. - The issuance of floating-rate and short-duration CMO securities has surged, indicating a defensive positioning by banks in a rate-sensitive environment [19]. - There is a growing preference for GNMA securities among banks due to their favorable capital treatment, despite expectations of regulatory changes [21].

Core Viewpoint - The reintroduction of the Most Favored Nation (MFN) pricing by former President Trump poses a threat to pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer and AstraZeneca, potentially leading to lower drug prices as part of the Inflation Reduction Act negotiations [3][4]. Group 1: Impact of MFN Pricing - The Biden administration has set the prices for the first ten Medicare Part D drugs to be 38%-79% lower than the list price and 13%-57% lower than the net price, indicating significant price reductions [4]. - The MFN pricing initiative may face legal challenges, complicating the implementation of price controls on domestic drug pricing [6]. - The White House's announcement of the highest fair prices in November could be a pivotal moment in the negotiations, as the Inflation Reduction Act sets price ceilings without establishing minimums [4][6]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation (CMMI) model proposed by Trump aims to link reimbursement for the top 50 highest spending Medicare drugs to foreign payment prices, although its implementation has faced procedural hurdles [6]. - The guidance released by Medicare regarding combination products may negatively impact companies like Merck, which are attempting to protect monopoly pricing through the development of subcutaneous versions of older therapies [9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The MFN executive order may compel pharmaceutical companies to lower the list prices of certain drugs or bypass drug benefit managers to align with the administration's objectives [9]. - Monitoring of protected category drugs, such as AstraZeneca's Calquence and Pfizer's Ibrance, is crucial as Medicare Part D coverage requirements could lead to reduced rebates [4].

本文节选自彭博终端"彭博行业研究《2025年生成式AI展望》"，彭博终端用户可运行{NSN SWJ7Y1DWX2PS0 }阅读。如您还不是终 端用户，您可在文末"阅读原文"联系我们预约产品演示。 彭博行业研究 2025年生成式AI展望 生成式人工智能（AI）和大语言模型（LLM）的应用已经渗透到科技领域的各个环节并迅速发 展。预计到2032年， 这个市场将创造约1.8 万亿美元的收入。 彭博行业研究认为，随着由思维链和强化学习加持的推理模型更受青睐，LLM的应用可能从基 于文本的搜索扩大至各种图片、音频和视频的分析；除了LLM赋能的合同审查和客服聊天机器 人等现有用例外，集成写作和编程助手以及利用文本和语音提示词生成图像和视频的工具，也 将推动生成式 AI智能体在消费端和企业端的部署；DeepSeek问世后，大多数LLM公司都致力 于提高模型效率，从而实现大规模推理。 核心议题： 长按或扫描二维码 阅读完整报告 推理超过训练的时间有望提前： 推理支出超过训练支出的时间可能比我们之前的预测至 少提前三年。 大语言模型之间的差距缩小： OpenAI的GPT、谷歌的Gemini、Meta的Llama、 Anthro ...

Group 1 - The article highlights various upcoming Bloomberg seminars and workshops scheduled for June 2025, focusing on different financial markets and tools [2][4][5][6][10]. - It emphasizes the importance of understanding the Bloomberg Terminal for analyzing bonds, foreign exchange, stocks, commodities, and derivatives [8]. - Specific sessions are dedicated to equity analysis, fixed income liquidity analysis, and the impact of tariffs on various sectors, including technology stocks [9][11]. Group 2 - The article provides a detailed schedule of events, including dates and times for each seminar, indicating a structured approach to financial education [3][7][10]. - It mentions the introduction of new data updates and application scenarios for global stock models and China's onshore fixed income market [9][10]. - The seminars aim to equip participants with essential tools and insights for effective market analysis and investment strategies [8][11].

本文来自彭博终端，终端用户可运行NSN SVI3F8T1UM0W 阅读原文。非终端用户可点击文末 "阅读原文" 预约演示。 彭博行业研究 (Bloomberg Intelligence) 就各公司、行业和市场提供全球投研分析以及交互式 数据。在 环境、社会与治理（ESG） 方面，BI研究立于行业前沿，聚焦热门话题，为您分享 关键洞察。 扫描二维码 立即订阅 彭博ESG双周报 本期主题：银行业联盟转向恐致碳目标推迟实现：谁面临撤资风险？ （彭博行业研究）—— 净零银行业联盟(Net-Zero Banking Alliance)近期通过投票放宽了对成 员资格的规定，此举或将为银行在放弃或调整各自净零目标方面留出回旋余地，进而引发环 境、社会和治理(ESG)投资者撤资的潜在风险。瑞银与荷兰国际集团面临的风险最大——其相 当于3%以上市值的股票由ESG基金和气候基金持有。富国银行近日宣布放弃净零目标，尽管其 面临的撤资风险较低（占市值的0.5%），但若有其他银行效仿，撤资风险可能会上升。 哪些欧洲银行面临投资者撤资风险？ 净零银行业联盟通过投票放宽了一项气候目标，该目标此前要求成员机构将其贷款和投资组 合与温升不超过 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the upcoming Bloomberg Private Investment Strategy closed-door exchange meeting in Beijing, focusing on global and Chinese market opportunities and the dynamics of the derivatives market [3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event will take place on June 18, 2025, in Beijing, featuring discussions on the impact of U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical tensions on global macroeconomic conditions [3]. - The meeting aims to address the rising risk aversion in the market while highlighting China's economic recovery and increased financing demand, which are attracting international hedge funds [3]. Group 2: Key Themes - The event will cover the integration of technology in investment decision-making, particularly the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in enhancing quantitative research and investment strategies [3]. - There will be a focus on the dynamics of the derivatives market and how it relates to the broader investment landscape [3]. Group 3: Participation and Logistics - Registration for the event requires a review process, and participants will receive confirmation and reminders via WeChat [4]. - The series of events will also include sessions in Shenzhen and Hangzhou later in 2025, with specific themes and agendas to be announced prior to the events [5].

本文来自彭博终端，终端用户可运行NSN SWMTTDDWLU68 阅读原文。非终端用户可点击文末 "阅读原文" 预约演示。 伴随行业飞速发展、地缘政治博弈、供需天平摇摆…全球能源市场时刻处于动荡之中。彭博行 业研究（Bloomberg Intelligence）为您及时传递行业动态，并基于高质量数据、模型与分析 助您解读市场变化，看见全局、看向前景。 扫描二维码 立即订阅 彭博能源行业研究双周报 本期主题： 美国-伊朗协议或将油价推低至40美元 OPEC+寻求维护配额秩序 (彭博行业研究)——如果针对伊朗出口的制裁被解除，油价可能会跌至4 0美元/桶。美国总统 特朗普已暗示，美国和伊朗朝着达成核协议又迈进了一步，这提高了解除制裁的可能性。伊 朗石油可能会增加OPEC+的供应，并帮助推进该组织向超额生产的成员国施压，使其遵守生 产配额的计划。 核协议或为伊朗石油出口打开大门 数据来源：彭博行业研究 OPEC+产量分歧或引发供应过剩 6月OPEC+决定下调减产规模，幅度超过预期，与4月和5月的行动类似，这可能表明该组织 或将在更长时间里放宽供应限制，第三季度石油市场或将因此出现多达4 8万桶/日的供应过 剩，第四 ...

香港私人银行与理财通的发展前景 AI新时代：探索现实场景中的金融技术创新 买方视角分享 演讲嘉宾 Kevin Sneader 高盛集团 亚太区联席总裁（除日本外） Muska Chiu 渣打银行 香港投资顾问总监 李学林 法国巴黎银行 香港财富管理主管 罗文辉 华泰证券 首席技术官 Wendy Yuen 中信银行 国际私人及企业银行部主管 Michael Elko 彭博 市场与产品专家主管 Yvonne Man 彭博电视 主持人 Jennifer Yan 彭博北亚地区（除日本） 卖方技术销售主管 扫码立即报名 展望全球，随着不确定性加剧，美元主导地位面临前所未有的压力，地缘博弈也重塑着贸易流 向。投资者更多地将目光投向亚洲——这一活力与韧性兼具的地区经济增速回升，受到寻求稳定 与增长的投资者青睐。与此同时，面对科技给各行业带来的颠覆性影响、ESG要求的持续更新、 货币政策转向、监管环境发展……卖方机构亟需灵活调整战略，从而与时俱进、把握良机。 彭博诚邀您出席 2025年亚太区卖方领袖论坛 ！机构高管、行业领袖、资深专家等业界人士将齐聚 一堂，探讨有关银行业与资本市场的热点议题，展望未来趋势，分享真知灼见。 主 ...