7 月 4 日 -5 日，格隆汇诚邀您莅临【格隆汇中期策略会 2025 】！ 东方港湾创始人兼董事长但斌先生将带来他的最新投资策略分析，当前 A 股估值处于历史中 低位，港股恒生科技指数更具反弹潜力，政策对"新质生产力"的聚焦，如人工智能、人形机器 人等，正在重塑产业竞争格局。 面对复杂的全球经济环境，中国经济正呈现 "温和复苏、结构优化"的特征。 根据中国科学院预测科学研究中心数据， 2025 年 GDP 增速预计达 4.8% ，其中高技术制造 业投资增速持续领跑，成为经济增长的核心引擎。 货币政策层面， 5 月 20 日 LPR 双降 10 个基点至 1 年期 3.00% 、 5 年期 3.50% ，释 放出稳健偏宽松的政策信号，为资本市场注入流动性支持。 与此同时，美联储 6 月降息预期升温，全年预计降息 50 个基点，全球风险偏好的回升将进一 步提振科技资产估值。 躬身耕耘的星火，终成燎原之势； 破浪而行的孤舟，自达沧海之界。 【格隆汇中期策略会 2025 】 在深圳期待您的莅临！ 你还在等什么！ 长按图片识别二维码进行报名吧！ 东方港湾创始人兼董事长 中国人民大学法学硕士、中欧国际工商学院 EMBA ...

作者 | 刀锋 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 6月5日以来，A港股两市多只新消费龙头同时出现大幅调整，其中，老铺黄金3个交易日累跌逾11%，润本股份累 跌近15%，潮宏基累跌16%，曼卡龙累跌超17%。 新消费趋势性行情从今年3月开启，从黄金饰品、化妆品到宠物及新潮玩等，其中不少细分领域的概念龙头股普遍 翻倍，出现了极致抱团现象。 然而近期，不少新消费概念龙头都纷纷转为出现突然高位下跌，这是抱团瓦解的开始，还是大涨中继的插曲？ 01 在此之前，新消费概念包括珠宝首饰、宠物经济以及茶饮等行业赛道，它们之所以被市场认可，主要是市场底层迎 来新逻辑的驱动。 首先，宏观政策基调，刺激内需消费稳定经济增长。早在 2024年末政治局会议、中央经济工作会议，便确定了 2025年政策主基调——大力提振消费、提高投资效益、全方位扩大国内需求。 这是首次将消费列在投资之前，背后意味着逆周期调节重心从投资生产端转向了消费需求端。 其次，经过多轮关税加征与博弈，更让市场确信了通过刺激内需对冲外部经贸压力的逻辑。这一点也容易凝聚市场 共识，亦是新消费持续上涨最底层的政策逻辑。 同时，新消费各大领域景气 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes a significant transformation in the global economic landscape driven by advancements in artificial intelligence and biotechnology, marking a new era of "new productive forces" [1] - The article suggests that this transformation is not merely a typical business cycle but a profound shift requiring a clear understanding of the underlying changes [6] - It highlights the need for courage and vision among a few individuals to initiate major historical turning points [8] Group 2 - The geopolitical landscape is described as turbulent, with various factors such as "black swan" events and fluctuating monetary policies contributing to global uncertainties [4] - The Chinese economy is undergoing a remarkable "quantum leap," indicating a significant shift in its economic dynamics amidst the tension between Eastern and Western civilizations [5] - The upcoming 2025 Mid-Year Strategy Summit in Shenzhen is positioned as a platform for thought leaders and practitioners to engage in discussions about future value mapping in the face of these changes [9]

一、 复盘点评： 沪指再次站上 3400 ，量能站上 1.3 万亿，科技风偏正在回归 1. 大盘指数走势及成交量强度表现 AI 方向全线异动 ：天孚通信、中际旭创表现强劲， 粤传媒和引力传媒涨停，港股尾盘 AI 应用大涨， 资金持续回补科技主线。 今日 A 股市场整体呈现强势震荡上行格局，沪指上涨 0.43% ， 重新站上 3400 点整数关口，实现 " 五连阳 " ，创业板指表现更为强劲，涨 幅达 1.07% ，反映出市场风险偏好提升。沪深两市成交额达 1.31 万亿元，较前一交易日显著放量超 1350 亿元，放量上涨显示做多资金持 续活跃，量能配合良好，市场动能充沛。 主力资金净流入明显，重点流入方向为医药、新能源、人工智能与国企改革方向。主力净流入个股中，东方财富、中际旭创、恒瑞医药、天孚 通信等龙头表现突出，显示资金更倾向于高景气 + 产业趋势明确 + 技术逻辑支撑的赛道 核心标的 。 | 体育 | | | 文娱用品 | | | 金属新材料 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

格隆汇新股 重庆市江北区冲出一家IPO，为比亚迪供应商，应收账款高企！ 原创 阅读全文 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) investments, highlighting the contrasting views of well-known fund managers who are publicly bearish on the market [1] Group 1: ETF Market Trends - The ETF market has experienced significant growth, with assets under management reaching a record high of $10 trillion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 25% [1] - The article notes that the popularity of ETFs is driven by their liquidity, low fees, and tax efficiency, making them an attractive option for both retail and institutional investors [1] Group 2: Fund Manager Sentiment - Prominent fund managers have expressed skepticism about the sustainability of the current market rally, citing concerns over inflation and interest rate hikes as potential headwinds [1] - The article mentions that some fund managers are positioning their portfolios defensively, indicating a shift in strategy amidst market volatility [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities and Risks - Despite the bearish outlook from some fund managers, the article suggests that there are still potential investment opportunities within specific sectors, particularly in technology and renewable energy [1] - The article emphasizes the importance of thorough research and analysis in navigating the current market landscape, as differing opinions among fund managers can create both opportunities and risks for investors [1]

ETF进化论 创历史新低！160万亿存款动手？ 原创 阅读全文 ...

Core Viewpoint - The approval of the first domestic nine-valent HPV vaccine, Xinkening®9, by Wantai Biological Pharmacy, marks a significant breakthrough in China's vaccine industry, challenging Merck's long-standing monopoly in the market [1][26]. Summary by Sections R&D and Product Value - Wantai Biological invested approximately 1 billion yuan over 18 years to develop Xinkening®9, achieving three major breakthroughs in vaccine technology [3][12]. - The vaccine utilizes an innovative E. coli expression system, resulting in higher immunogenicity, cost-effectiveness, and complete proprietary intellectual property [5][6]. Efficacy and Safety - Xinkening®9 can prevent infections from nine HPV types, covering over 90% of HPV-related infections, with proven efficacy and safety comparable to imported vaccines [6][7]. - A head-to-head study published in The Lancet confirmed that both domestic and imported vaccines had a 100% seroconversion rate for neutralizing antibodies [7]. Administration and Accessibility - The vaccine offers flexible dosing schedules: a two-dose regimen for females aged 9-17 and a three-dose regimen for those aged 18-45, making it more accessible compared to imported alternatives [11][12]. Pricing Strategy - The market is keenly awaiting the pricing strategy for Xinkening®9, with current expectations based on the pricing of the only other available nine-valent HPV vaccine, Gardasil®9, which costs around 1300 yuan per dose [13][14]. - Two main pricing strategies are anticipated: an aggressive pricing approach or a price set at 50%-70% of the imported vaccine's cost [14][15]. Market Potential and Growth - If priced between 700 to 800 yuan per dose, Xinkening®9 could balance commercial viability and social responsibility, addressing the significant gap in HPV vaccination rates in China [16][17]. - The global demand for HPV vaccines is robust, with projections estimating Xinkening®9 could reach sales of 22.8 billion yuan [23]. Future Expansion - Wantai Biological plans to expand into the male market and pursue international opportunities, leveraging its WHO pre-certification and existing market access in various countries [25]. - The approval of Xinkening®9 signifies a shift in China's vaccine industry from catching up to leading in core product development [26].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the significance of the upcoming US-China economic dialogue in London, which is expected to alleviate trade tensions and enhance market expectations [2][3]. - The recent phone call between the US and Chinese leaders set a positive tone for the economic discussions, marking a shift from sporadic communication to a more structured dialogue [2][3]. - The capital markets reacted positively to the news, with notable fluctuations in related sectors such as electric vehicles, rare earths, and aviation, indicating a potential reduction in trade friction and improved policy expectations [2][3]. Group 2 - The upcoming talks in London are seen as a continuation and upgrade of previous communications, particularly following the unsatisfactory outcomes of the Geneva talks [3][4]. - The choice of London as the meeting location is significant, as it serves as a bridge between the US and Europe, potentially easing bilateral tensions while allowing for coordination on technology policies [4][5]. - The change in US representation, with a focus on technology export controls, suggests that discussions will center on sensitive areas such as semiconductors and AI, indicating a strategic shift in the dialogue [5][6]. Group 3 - Recent interactions between the US and China, including the issuance of rare earth export licenses and the resumption of Boeing 737 MAX deliveries, signal a mutual need for de-escalation and stabilization of supply chains [6][7]. - Market expectations remain cautious, with analysts predicting low-key discussions; however, any unexpected positive outcomes could lead to significant market reactions [7][8]. - Potential "surprise" agreements, such as new arrangements on technology exports or tariff exemptions, could provide structural benefits to sectors like semiconductors, consumer electronics, and renewable energy [8].

作者 | 弗雷迪 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 上月末，由于难以解决巨额债务问题，全球 SiC （碳化硅）巨头 Wolfspeed 宣布准备在几周内申请破产。 先发优势并不代表企业护城河坚不可摧。在国产厂商的奋力追赶下，部分企业的市场份额已经能够望其项背。 最后一个靴子落地，随着供应链重新洗牌， SiC 衬底行业有望走出价格低迷的阴霾，竞争格局或将重塑。 对于技术工艺实力领先的国内企业如天岳先进、天科合达，随着产能供需逐渐走向平衡，争夺行业话语权的机会或在酝酿之中。 01 激进扩产埋下危机 Wolfspeed 的高光时刻发生在 2021 年，那年 10 月之前还叫做 Cree ，而 Wolfspeed 作为后者的三大部门之一，主要从事第三代半导体 业务。 成立于 1987 年的 Cree ，在上世纪 90 年代是全球最大的蓝光 LED 芯片制造商， 1991 年就已推出全球首片商业化碳化硅晶圆，一举奠定 行业鼻祖地位。 2011 年， Wolfspeed 率先推出全球第一款 SiC MOSFET ，在行业内树立起技术标杆。 但另外两个业务（ LED 芯片和组件、照明系统及灯具 ...