本文系转载自 深交所投教公众号。 本文不构成野村东方国际证券的任何投资建议、推介或宣传。野村东方国际证券没有独立核实过被转载文章的 内容，该文章中的任何观点不代表野村东方国际证券观点，野村东方国际证券不对投资者依赖本文的任何内容 而采取的行动承担任何责任。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本文转载自： 深交所投教 免责声明 向上滑动阅览 ...

Core Viewpoint - The mid-term strategy meeting by Nomura Orient International Securities emphasizes the theme of "seeking certainty amid geopolitical games," focusing on how to navigate uncertainties and capitalize on industry and asset certainties in the current market environment [2]. Group 1: Market Environment - The euro, which accounts for over 60% of the dollar index, has appreciated against the dollar since March, indicating a trend of capital withdrawal from dollar assets [2]. - Non-dollar assets have received strong liquidity support in the first half of the year, with international capital favoring European bonds, European stocks, and the Hang Seng Technology Index [2]. - The market has priced in most potential changes, including consistent expectations for the U.S. economy and shifts in international capital flows [2]. Group 2: Future Market Outlook - The second half of 2025 is expected to be a critical juncture for market direction, with discrepancies between expectations and reality likely to converge as high-frequency data is validated monthly [3]. - The loosening and shifting of international capital narratives may lead to additional liquidity impacts, potentially increasing market volatility [3]. - Given strong domestic policy expectations and a favorable liquidity environment under a weak dollar, Chinese equity assets are anticipated to outperform overseas markets in the latter half of the year [3]. Group 3: Sector and Stock Performance - The projected revenue growth rates for the CSI 300 Index are 4.5% and 5.3% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profit growth rates of 2.8% and 6.7% [3]. - The decline in risk-free interest rates suggests that the CSI 300 is still undervalued from a static valuation perspective, making it attractive for long-term domestic investors [3]. - Dividend stocks with stable yields and specific technology growth sectors (military, new energy, and new consumption) are expected to be more suitable for the market environment in the second half of the year [3].

近日，野村东方国际证券举办了家庭日活动，公司特别邀请员工携带孩子走进上海办公室。活动 当日，办公室褪去了平日的严肃模样，换上了端午节的装饰，轻盈的飘空气球摇曳生姿，处处洋 溢着端午的温馨氛围，让大小朋友们一踏入便感受到浓浓的节日喜悦。 艾香与粽香交织的午后，上海的同事们欢聚一堂共享美味，从传统的蛋黄肉粽到清甜的豆沙粽，从箬叶 包裹的咸香软糯到蜜枣流露的绵密清甜，每一款粽子都似舌尖上的文化密码，诉说着南北风味的交融与 传承。 免责声明 本文不构成野村东方国际证券的任何投资建议、推介或宣传。野村东方国际证券不对投资者依赖本文的任何内容而 采取的行动承担任何责任。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 大家用五彩丝线串联翡翠、玛瑙般的珠串，指尖上的盘结传递着五彩绳"辟邪纳吉"的千年传说，以及珠 串中"五谷丰登"的美好寓意。 在温馨愉悦的氛围中，本次端午家庭日活动圆满落下帷幕，这场充满爱与陪伴的聚会，不仅为亲子关系 搭建了温馨的互动桥梁，更让员工们在忙碌的工作之余，以轻松愉快的方式增进了彼此的情感联结，共 同度过了一段充满欢笑与温情的美好时光。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in consumer behavior among Generation Z, emphasizing their willingness to pay a premium for emotional experiences, which reflects a broader transition in Chinese society from material abundance to emotional fulfillment [2][4]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior - Generation Z's pursuit of "uncertainty surprises," "community recognition," and "personalized expression" leads to a consumption model that prioritizes psychological satisfaction and social currency over traditional value-price assessments [2]. - This shift indicates a transformation in China from a "manufacturing output" economy to a "cultural IP output" economy, with capital markets increasingly recognizing high-value, light-asset models [2][4]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The rise of emotional economy has resulted in a new operational model that captures value across the entire content creation industry chain, from IP industrialization to value redistribution [4]. - Companies are building complete chains involving artist signing, industrial production, multi-channel sales, and secondary trading, relying on four key phases: incubation, growth, explosion, and continuation [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The emotional economy has driven significant market activity in A-share markets, particularly in the two-dimensional and trendy toy sectors, supported by a large consumer base [4]. - For instance, Pop Mart, known for its trendy toys, has shown strong stock performance since its listing in Hong Kong, exemplifying the dual attributes of "new consumption + cultural IP" [4].

Core Viewpoint - The global lithium battery landscape is entering a new cycle, driven by the increasing penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) in China and the sustained demand for energy storage, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 57% for global power battery installations from 2020 to 2024 [3][4]. Demand Growth - The demand for lithium batteries globally is expected to reach 1339 GWh by 2024, with energy storage accounting for 235 GWh (18% of total demand). The energy storage demand is projected to grow to 305 GWh in 2025, driven by rising electricity prices, decreasing costs of storage systems, and increased renewable energy penetration [3][4]. Supply and Capacity Utilization - The oversupply situation in the lithium battery industry is expected to improve by 2025, with new capacity growth slowing to 29% and 10% in 2025-2026, compared to 68% and 52% in 2023-2024. This will lead to a recovery in capacity utilization rates to 46% by 2026 [4][5]. Global Market Dynamics - The previous cycle (2022-2024) saw significant changes in the global lithium battery landscape, primarily due to the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) attracting Japanese and Korean battery companies to expand capacity in North America, while domestic second-tier lithium battery companies in China expanded capacity significantly, leading to temporary oversupply and declining profits [4][5]. Investment Opportunities - Companies that can expand their capacity outside the U.S. and are close to end customers are expected to achieve excess profits, especially as trade tensions rise and domestic oversupply persists. The focus on European markets is seen as a strategic move for Chinese lithium battery companies to mitigate risks and enhance profitability [5][6]. European Market Outlook - The European market is anticipated to recover in 2025, with a projected increase in lithium battery capacity utilization from 62% in 2024 to 69% in 2025. The demand for both power and energy storage batteries is expected to drive this recovery [11][12]. Competitive Landscape - Chinese lithium battery companies are expected to gain a competitive edge in Europe, with planned capacity reaching 362 GWh compared to 213 GWh for Korean companies and 300 GWh for local European firms. The broad coverage of the supply chain and superior manufacturing capabilities position Chinese firms favorably [12][13]. Client Relationships - Chinese lithium battery companies have established partnerships with 23 international automotive manufacturers, significantly higher than the 18 partnerships of Korean companies and 4 of European firms, indicating a strong supply capability and responsiveness to market demands [13][15].

最近金价又上涨了，你关注了没？ 听说了，不过我最近看到一个新闻，说有人利用黄金洗钱，感觉挺可怕的。 黄金洗钱？什么意思？ 就是把非法获得的钱，通过买卖黄金的方式，变成合法的钱。 啊？这样也行？那不是很容易被发现吗？ 没那么简单。他们通常会通过很多复杂的交易，比如 黑市交易，即上游犯罪分子安排人员将黄金拿 到黑市进行交易变现；还有通过黄金回收店变现，就是将黄金拿到黄金回收店出售，换取现金；还 有兑换虚拟货币的方式，在某些案例中，黄金被兑换成虚拟货币后转往境外，以达到洗钱的目 的...... 原来如此，看来洗钱的手段真是层出不穷啊。 ...... 洗钱罪 大家千万不要以为 "洗钱"离我们很遥远 "黄金矿工" 直播巨额打赏 虚拟币投资 稳赚不赔"彩票" 这些都是常见的洗钱套路 洗钱风险"十面埋伏" 唯有掌握"秘籍"才能识破陷阱 避免沦为洗钱"工具人" （一）概念 洗钱 （ Money Laundering ）是一个金融行业专业术语，是一种 将非法所得合法化 的行为 。主要指将违法所得及其产生的收益，通过各种手段掩饰、隐瞒其来源和性质，使 其在形式上合法化。洗钱罪的上游犯罪主要有毒品犯罪、走私犯罪、恐怖活动犯罪、 黑 ...

向上滑动阅览 免责声明 本文转载自： 深交所投教 本文系转载自 深交所投教公众号。 本文不构成野村东方国际证券的任何投资建议、推介或宣传。野村东方国际证券没有独立核实过被转载文章的 内容，该文章中的任何观点不代表野村东方国际证券观点，野村东方国际证券不对投资者依赖本文的任何内容 而采取的行动承担任何责任。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 ...

NOMURA 野村东方国际证券 内容来源 分钟了解日本 日本体育消费趋势的转变 上期我们介绍了日本体育市场的发展历程以及流行趋势的转 变。上世纪90年代后,日本的体育市场逐渐呈现"低门槛、 低消费、个人化"三大消费特征。本期将解析这一转变的社 会经济原因以及细分体育领域的趋势。 三大消费特征转变的原因 经济下行抑制奢侈型 消费支出,低消费、 低门槛项目崛起。 = 1172 假门槛 低消费 个人化特征 日本重视校园体育。 老龄化、家庭小型化 但少子化使青少年体 03 现象使大众转向休 育市场大幅缩水。 闲、个人类项目。 本材料虽由野村东方国际证券有限公司（以下简称"本公司"或"我们"）研究部提供，但并非我们发布的证券 研究报告，仅系我们根据本公司已正式发布的研究报告内容制作。我们不保证本材料内容、观点、文字与正 式出具的研究报告保持完整性、一致性，您应通过查阅本公司正式发布的研究报告获得详细信息，研究报告 的免责声明同样适用于本材料。 本内容根据野村东方国际证券2023年08月17日发布的证券研究报告 《赛道之上，创新致胜——日本经济下行期黄金赛道之运动 服饰》 分析师 张影秋 （SAC执证编号：S172052 ...

对于近期中美日内瓦经贸会谈的重大进展，肖令君表示会谈成果超越市场预期，短期缓解了对中国 出口及经济增长的担忧，实则为更长行情周期的起点。 肖令君分享了其自"对等关税"公布以来持续看多中国市场的底层逻辑。他强调中国在制造业领域的 强大竞争力，即使面临关税增加的挑战，中国产品的质量与价格优势依然明显。中国制造业的全球 竞争力根植于完整的产业链与高效供给能力。加之转口贸易、提价策略等灵活应对，关税的实际影 响可能更低。回顾4月7日市场下跌时，其团队通过定量分析认为市场超跌，如今事实也印证了当时 观点的正确性。 当谈及外部不稳定性缓解后A股的运行逻辑与驱动因素时，肖令君从四方面阐述了支撑A股走势的 核心因素： 近期，野村东方国际证券资产管理部总经理兼投资总监肖令君接受华尔街见闻直播间《大咖会客 厅》栏目的采访，并围绕中美日内瓦经贸会谈后关税调整及其对市场的影响展开了深入探讨，以下 为主要观点摘要： 向上滑动阅览 本文不构成野村东方国际证券的任何投资建议、推介或宣传。野村东方国际证券没有独立核实过被转载文章的内 容，该文章中的任何观点不代表野村东方国际证券观点，野村东方国际证券不对投资者依赖本文的任何内容而采 取的行动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recovery trend in consumer goods, driven by a rebound in retail sales and an increase in disposable income, alongside a notable recovery in the food and beverage sector [2][3]. Retail Sales and Consumer Income - In March 2025, total retail sales increased by 5.9% year-on-year, while per capita disposable income saw a cumulative real increase of 5.6% [3][5][7]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for food declined by 1.4%, contributing to an overall CPI decrease of 0.1% [3][8]. Market Dynamics - The second-hand housing market is experiencing significant price differentiation, with overall transaction volumes under pressure [3]. - The food and beverage sector is currently undervalued, with sales of liquor and beer facing pressure, while the price index for condiments has risen to its highest level in nearly a year, indicating a recovery in the dining industry [3][9]. Investment Themes Theme 1: Urban Consumption Recovery - High-tier cities are leading the recovery in domestic demand, with cities like Chongqing showing strong growth in retail sales, while traditional high-tier cities like Shanghai and Beijing are under pressure [9][10]. - In the first two months of 2025, Chongqing's retail sales reached 28.32 billion, up 8% year-on-year, while Shanghai's sales fell by 11% [14]. Theme 2: Restaurant Consumption Recovery - The restaurant sector is showing a positive trend, with total revenue from large-scale enterprises reaching 134 billion in March 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [15][20]. - The recovery in restaurant consumption is expected to boost the performance of upstream suppliers and drive growth in ready-to-drink products, particularly in the beer sector [15][17]. Theme 3: Domestic Demand vs. Export Fluctuations - Policies aimed at boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand have been introduced, with infrastructure investment growing by 11.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 [18][25]. - The consumer confidence index showed a slight increase in February 2025, indicating a gradual expansion of domestic demand [18][19]. Theme 4: High Dividend Yield - The food and beverage sector has a relatively high dividend payout ratio, with an average cash market value ratio of 11% and an average payout ratio of 112% in 2024, suggesting a strong willingness to distribute dividends [21][27].