经济观察报
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千万老漂族,困在带孙辈的义务中
经济观察报· 2025-09-13 08:55
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing burden on families due to the demands of child-rearing and education, leading to the rise of the "old drifting" population, who move to cities to help care for grandchildren, often at the cost of their own well-being and mental health [1][8][22]. Group 1: Old Drifting Population - The "old drifting" population refers to elderly individuals who relocate to cities to assist their children with childcare and household duties, often feeling like outsiders in their new environments [6][7]. - In 2020, the number of old drifters in China exceeded 11 million, as they make up 43% of the elderly population involved in childcare [6][21]. - The old drifting population plays a crucial role in supporting young families, allowing them to maintain dual-income households and manage daily responsibilities [11][20]. Group 2: Family Dynamics and Conflicts - Conflicts often arise between the old drifting population and younger family members, primarily due to differing parenting philosophies, with younger parents favoring meticulous child-rearing practices that the elderly may struggle to implement [8][15]. - Many elderly caregivers feel unappreciated and overburdened, leading to feelings of resentment and mental health issues, as they often sacrifice their own needs for the sake of family [8][22]. - The article highlights that the old drifting population often experiences a lack of emotional support from their children, leading to increased feelings of isolation and neglect [22][23]. Group 3: Economic Considerations - The economic burden of hiring professional childcare services is significant, with costs for hiring a nanny for children aged 0-3 years potentially reaching around 180,000 yuan, making reliance on the old drifting population a financially viable option for many families [21]. - The article notes that the average salary for childcare workers in urban areas is high, making the old drifting population a cost-effective and reliable alternative for childcare [21][20]. - As urbanization continues to rise, the old drifting population is expected to remain a long-term fixture in family structures, necessitating policy exploration to alleviate their caregiving burdens and ensure their well-being [22][30].
海上新山东图景
经济观察报· 2025-09-13 08:55
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the booming development of the marine economy in Shandong, driven by favorable national policies and strategic planning, aiming to establish a comprehensive marine economy system [1][3][4]. Group 1: Marine Economic Development - The 2024 marine production value in Shandong reached 18,011.8 billion yuan, growing by 6.1%, surpassing the provincial GDP growth rate of 5.7% [6]. - The marine economy's contribution to Shandong's overall economic growth increased to 23.9%, adding 1.1 percentage points to the regional GDP [6]. - The central government has signaled strong support for high-quality marine economic development, encouraging social capital participation [3][7]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives and Events - The 2025 East Asia Marine Expo held in Qingdao attracted over 450 domestic and international enterprises, showcasing advancements in marine technology and industry [2][5]. - Shandong's strategic plan for marine industry development aims to integrate global marine innovation, enhance core technology, and build a competitive modern marine industry system by 2027 [9][12]. Group 3: Technological Integration - The integration of AI with marine industries is highlighted as a new trend, with companies showcasing intelligent marine equipment capable of complex operations [14][16]. - The establishment of the Qingdao Marine AI Model Industry Alliance aims to enhance marine technology innovation and promote the fusion of AI and marine industries [17]. Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - Despite Shandong's rich marine resources and technological advantages, there is a need for effective macro strategies and policies to enhance marine technology conversion capabilities [7][18]. - The traditional research model in China may hinder the effective commercialization of marine technologies, indicating a market opportunity for AI-driven solutions [18][19].
拆解“提高财政收入占比”的三个关键问题
经济观察报· 2025-09-13 06:07
Core Viewpoint - The current fiscal pressure in China is closely related to previous constructive debt rather than an increase in "welfare" from enterprises and households. Improving expenditure efficiency and optimizing expenditure structure are crucial for sustainable fiscal health, followed by revenue enhancement [1][5]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Revenue and GDP Ratio - Experts have suggested increasing the fiscal revenue-to-GDP ratio, with former Finance Minister Lou Jiwei advocating for this in his 2025 paper on fiscal policy reform [2]. - The fiscal revenue ratio reflects the government's ability to concentrate financial resources from the economy and its macro-control capacity. China's fiscal revenue includes four main accounts: general public budget, government fund budget, state-owned capital operating budget, and social insurance fund budget [3]. Current Fiscal Situation - The macro tax burden in China is currently at 28.2%, with a reasonable target considered to be around 30%. This indicates room for increasing the fiscal revenue ratio [4]. - The decline in fiscal revenue ratio in recent years is attributed to large-scale tax cuts and fee reductions initiated since 2019, with the ratio dropping from 28-29% in 2018 to 26% in 2023 [9]. Historical Context - Since the tax-sharing system reform in 1994, the fiscal revenue ratio has seen fluctuations, peaking during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" at 21.4% and declining to an average of 16.7% during the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" [7]. - The fiscal revenue ratio has decreased from 35.7% in 2013 to 30.4% in 2022, a decline of 5.3 percentage points, while the average for 11 middle-income countries increased slightly during the same period [10]. Taxation and Revenue Enhancement - Lou Jiwei has indicated that there is potential to raise the value-added tax (VAT) rate, which currently stands at a low 13%, compared to an average of 20% in other countries [14]. - Other revenue sources, such as social security fund income and land transfer income, have limited growth potential, while the personal income tax has structural weaknesses that make reform challenging [14]. Alternative Revenue Strategies - Experts suggest enhancing the state-owned capital operating budget and reducing unfair tax incentives as alternative methods to increase fiscal revenue without raising tax rates [20][21]. - The state-owned capital operating budget, which is currently underutilized, could significantly contribute to fiscal revenue, especially as land finance declines [21]. Efficiency in Fiscal Spending - Improving the efficiency of government spending and investment is essential for maintaining economic vitality and ensuring public service provision [12][23]. - The focus should be on balancing revenue enhancement with expenditure efficiency, rather than solely increasing the fiscal revenue ratio [18].
罚款、市场禁入!恒大人寿四任董事长都领到了罚单
经济观察报· 2025-09-13 02:24
罚单信息显示,恒大人寿相关责任人员存在保险资金运用严重 不合规、向关联方输送利益、投后管理不合规、报送的报告报 表存在虚假记载等违法违规行为的问题。 作者: 姜鑫 封图:图虫创意 2025年9月12日,国家金融监督管理总局(下称"金融监管总局")披露的罚单显示,恒大人寿保险 有限公司(下称"恒大人寿")20名相关责任人员被罚。其中,恒大人寿更名以来的四位董事长均 在其中。 罚单信息显示,恒大人寿相关责任人员存在保险资金运用严重不合规、向关联方输送利益、投后管 理不合规、报送的报告报表存在虚假记载等违法违规行为的问题。 基于此,金融监管总局对梁栋、朱加麟、曾松柏、陈堃、刘国辉、汪守想、方元甫、章新蓉、莫勇 光、陈里达、罗嵩、彭建军、姜劲峰、胡锋、许晓光、陈敏、赵宏涛、刘曲章、张炎、王煦警告并 罚款共计282.5万元。 2023年9月,深圳金融监管局负责人表示,恒大人寿严重资不抵债,依据《中华人民共和国保险 法》及相关监管制度规定,监管部门已对其实施贴身监管并开展风险处置。中国保险保障基金有限 责任公司、广东省、深圳市和重庆市地方国有企业及太平人寿保险有限公司共同设立的海港人寿保 险股份有限公司(下称"海港人寿" ...
房东直租在减少
经济观察报· 2025-09-12 13:03
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of asset management-style housing rental services, where landlords entrust their properties to intermediaries for unified management, leading to improved living and service standards, but also raising concerns about the redistribution of interests among intermediaries, landlords, and tenants [2][4]. Summary by Sections Asset Management Rental Services - Asset management-style rental services involve landlords handing over their properties to intermediaries for management, including renting, collecting rent, maintenance, and operations [2][4]. - This model has gained traction among many intermediary companies, enhancing living standards but also sparking debates over the interests of landlords and tenants being overlooked [2]. Cost Comparison - A case study shows that renting a managed property costs 21.38 million yuan over three years compared to 19.98 million yuan for direct rental, indicating that direct rentals are cheaper but managed properties offer better management and services [4]. Intermediary Benefits - For intermediaries, the asset management business provides stable income and transforms scattered properties into operational assets, allowing for additional revenue from financial, home decoration, and housekeeping services [7]. Landlord and Tenant Perspectives - Landlords transition from being mere property owners to asset owners, reducing risks associated with vacancy and management tasks [7]. - Tenants benefit from higher service standards, reduced disputes with landlords, and conveniences like cleaning and maintenance services [8]. Challenges in the Market - Issues arise such as limited visibility for direct rentals, reduced viewing frequency for direct rental properties, and fewer options for landlords who wish to rent out their properties quickly [8]. - Many landlords still rely on professional intermediaries due to the complexities of self-renting [8]. Industry Trends - The revenue structure of intermediary companies is shifting, with rental service income rising significantly; for example, Beike's rental service revenue reached 21.8% by mid-2025 [10]. - Companies like I Love My Home report that asset management is their largest revenue source, indicating a trend towards stable income through property management rather than traditional brokerage [10]. Future Considerations - The article suggests that the current issues in the asset management rental sector are temporary and will improve as companies enhance their asset management capabilities [11]. - There is a need for better financial oversight in the management of tenant deposits, as the accumulation of funds can pose risks if management companies fail [12].
“易中天”市值破万亿,凭什么?
经济观察报· 2025-09-12 12:43
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the optical module industry, particularly in the context of AI-driven demand and the recent surge in stock prices, questioning whether this is a new era or just a cyclical peak [1][4]. Market Performance - On September 11, the A-share market saw a significant increase, particularly in the CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) sector, which rose by 6.64%, attracting a net inflow of 19.763 billion yuan [2]. - Three companies, NewEase (300502.SZ), Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ), and Tianfu Communication (300394.SZ), collectively referred to as "Yizhongtian," saw their stock prices rise significantly, with NewEase up 13.42%, Zhongji Xuchuang up 14.28%, and Tianfu Communication up 13.54% [2]. AI Demand and Infrastructure - Oracle's unexpected performance guidance due to increased cloud infrastructure contracts signaled strong ongoing demand for AI computing power, which in turn spurred interest in optical modules as essential components for data transmission [3]. - The optical module market has become a focal point for investors, with AI computing hardware being a primary driver of growth since 2025 [4]. Optical Expo Insights - The 26th China International Optoelectronic Expo (CIOE) attracted 77,418 attendees, highlighting the growing interest in optical communication technologies [6]. - The expo showcased advancements in high-speed optical modules, with major companies presenting their latest technologies in 800G and 1.6T modules, as well as CPO solutions [6][9]. Technological Developments - Optical modules are critical for high-speed data transmission, converting electrical signals to optical signals and vice versa, with a shift from traditional copper cables to faster, more efficient optical solutions driven by AI demands [7][8]. - CPO technology, which integrates optical components with switching chips on a single substrate, is emerging as a solution to reduce signal loss and power consumption [9]. Financial Performance - Companies in the optical module sector reported strong financial results, with Zhongji Xuchuang's net profit for the first half of 2025 reaching 3.995 billion yuan, a 69.4% increase year-on-year, and NewEase's net profit soaring by 355.68% to 3.942 billion yuan [16]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with NewEase closing the gap on Zhongji Xuchuang in terms of revenue and profitability [17]. Market Debate - A debate has emerged regarding the sustainability of high valuations in the optical module sector, with some analysts questioning the feasibility of projected profits for companies like Zhongji Xuchuang [19][20]. - The discussion reflects differing perspectives on whether the current demand driven by AI represents a new paradigm or a temporary cycle [21][22]. Supply Chain Challenges - The optical module industry faces challenges related to reliance on imported high-end optical chips, with domestic production capabilities still developing [22]. - Companies are striving to enhance local supply chains to reduce dependency on foreign sources for critical components [22]. Future Growth Areas - The market is exploring new growth opportunities, including the application of optical interconnect technology within servers and long-distance data center interconnections [25][26]. - The demand for coherent optical modules is expected to rise as AI data centers expand, creating new revenue streams for companies in the sector [26].
100%缩瘤率!中国新药全球封神 百利天恒叩响MNC之门
经济观察报· 2025-09-12 12:39
Core Viewpoint - Iza-bren (BL-B01D1) is a groundbreaking ADC drug developed by the Chinese company BaiLi TianHeng, showing significant potential in treating EGFR-mutant non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and other cancers, with promising clinical trial results that could reshape cancer treatment paradigms globally [1][9][16]. Summary by Sections Clinical Efficacy - In a study involving 50 patients with advanced or metastatic EGFR-mutant NSCLC, 94% experienced tumor shrinkage, with progression-free survival (PFS) exceeding one year, nearly doubling the duration compared to existing treatments [4][14]. - Another study with 38 patients showed that 100% had tumor reductions of over 30% when treated with Iza-bren in combination with the targeted drug Osimertinib, outperforming the best current therapies which have an 86% effective shrinkage rate [5][14]. Drug Development and Market Potential - Iza-bren is the first-in-class dual-target ADC, currently in Phase III clinical trials for multiple cancers, with expectations for a 2026 launch in China [9][18]. - The drug has received breakthrough therapy designations from both the Chinese National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) and the U.S. FDA for several indications, highlighting its potential to address unmet clinical needs [17][18]. Financial Implications - The potential annual sales peak for Iza-bren is estimated at $20 billion, positioning it among the top-selling cancer drugs globally, alongside established products like Merck's Pembrolizumab [25][27]. - Achieving over $20 billion in annual sales would place BaiLi TianHeng among the top pharmaceutical companies worldwide, a significant milestone for a Chinese biotech firm [28][29]. Company Vision and Strategy - BaiLi TianHeng aims to transform into a multinational corporation (MNC) rather than merely a supplier for larger firms, emphasizing the importance of maintaining global rights and pursuing joint development agreements [24][30]. - The company is building a robust pipeline beyond Iza-bren, with several other ADCs in clinical development, indicating a strong commitment to innovation and long-term growth in the biopharmaceutical sector [31][32].
治理校园欺凌要关注“人”
经济观察报· 2025-09-12 12:39
所 有 的 法 律 都 是 为 了 人 , 对 苍 梧 校 园 欺 凌 案 的 处 理 也 要 回 到"人"的身上。 我们的目光 要看到被伤害的个体,他们需要 安全感的重建和心理支持;我们也要看到施暴的个体,想要挽 救和改造他们,同样需要个性化的方案,而不仅仅是疾风骤雨 的执法。 作者:陈碧 封图:图虫创意 针对广西苍梧县石桥中学学生欺凌事件,苍梧联合调查组9月9日发布处理结果:县教育局责令对 涉嫌存在工作失职失责问题的石桥中学正副校长及班主任停职检查;根据预防未成年人犯罪法相关 规定,对9名实施欺凌的学生依照程序送专门学校接受矫治教育;对涉事学生家长进行法治教育。 这样的处置力度,显著高于常规,反映出此事的严重性,也回应了社会舆论对严肃处理校园欺凌的 呼声。 近年来,恶性校园欺凌事件时有发生,如2024 年甘肃广河县某中学多名女生被掌掴案、2024年湖 南吉首某校园内一女生被多人殴打案等,皆因视频流传而引发广泛关注。 对校园欺凌行为的治理,我国以往大多是"教育为主、惩罚为辅",公安机关就算接到报案,也不敢 轻易行使治安处罚权。学校一般会对肇事者做出纪律处分或教育惩戒,对受害者则安排心理康复, 帮助其恢复正常 ...
在直播间跳舞的董事长
经济观察报· 2025-09-12 12:39
Core Viewpoint - The chairman of Meibang Apparel, Zhou Chengjian, is attempting to connect with the younger generation despite being at retirement age, as evidenced by his active presence on social media and participation in live streaming events [1][3]. Financial Performance - Meibang Apparel's stock price increased from 1.97 CNY per share to a peak of 2.94 CNY per share, marking a nearly 50% rise since September 1, 2025 [2]. - The company reported a significant decline in revenue, with a 45.23% drop year-on-year to 227 million CNY in the first half of 2025, and a net profit decrease of 87.07% to 9.93 million CNY [7]. - The revenue from men's clothing fell by 30.46% to 114 million CNY, while women's clothing revenue decreased by 23.57% to 62 million CNY [7]. Leadership and Strategy - Zhou Chengjian has returned to lead Meibang Apparel after his daughter, Hu Jiajia, stepped down due to significant losses during her tenure, which saw the company lose 3.2 billion CNY over seven years [6]. - Zhou has embraced social media, particularly Douyin (TikTok), where he has gained 83,000 followers and actively engages with consumers through live streaming [10]. - The chairman aims to reshape the brand's image to appeal to younger consumers by emphasizing youthfulness, trendiness, comfort, and cost-effectiveness [10]. Market Presence - The top five stores by revenue are located primarily in second-tier cities, indicating challenges for the brand in first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai [8]. - Zhou's live streaming efforts, including dancing and product demonstrations, are part of a broader strategy to revitalize the brand and engage directly with consumers [12].
当宝盈基金“王牌”基金经理决定离开
经济观察报· 2025-09-12 12:39
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent transition of prominent fund manager Yang Siliang from Baoying Fund to Yifangda Fund, highlighting a trend of talent migration from small to large fund companies in the industry [1][4]. Group 1: Talent Migration - Yang Siliang, a star fund manager who managed over 11.5 billion yuan at Baoying Fund, has officially joined Yifangda Fund after resigning from Baoying [2][3]. - His departure is part of a broader trend of talent loss at Baoying Fund, reflecting a shift of skilled professionals from smaller firms to industry leaders [4][21]. - Yang's management record includes a return of 156.84% since October 2018, significantly outperforming benchmarks by over 10 percentage points in the last three years [6]. Group 2: Management Changes at Baoying Fund - Yang's exit is not an isolated incident; other key personnel, including Vice President Li Jun and Fixed Income Department Head Deng Dong, have also left Baoying Fund, indicating a significant management shake-up [9][10]. - The fund has seen a decline in its management scale, dropping from 115 billion yuan to approximately 85 billion yuan due to the departure of several fund managers [6][21]. - The fund's product line is facing challenges, with a significant portion of its assets concentrated in fixed income, which accounts for over 70% of its total management scale [15]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The article highlights the increasing difficulties faced by mid-sized public fund companies, including product structure limitations, talent shortages, and weak bargaining power in sales channels [22][23]. - The trend of talent moving to larger firms poses a risk to the sustainability and development of smaller fund companies, which struggle to retain experienced professionals [21][23]. - The public fund industry is at a crossroads, needing to find ways to differentiate and innovate to avoid being trapped in a cycle of talent loss and underperformance [23].