更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 ...

报告导读： 央行推动LPR下降10个基点，引导贷款利率下行。这将降低开发商融资成本 并减少购房者的房贷压力，促使后续房产销售回升。维持行业"增持"评级。 本文摘自：2025年5月21日发布的 小幅调降LPR，呵护市场回暖趋势 涂力磊 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040101 谢皓宇 ，资格证书编号： S0880518010002 谢 盐 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040098 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 投资建议：央行推动 1 年期和 5 年期以上 LPR 下降 10 个基点，引导贷款利率下行。 我们认为，这将 有助于引导包括开发商在内的社会融资成本下行，并将有利于减少购房者承担的房贷利率和财务压力，促 使后 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall sensitivity of deposit scale to the reduction in deposit interest rates is low under the trend of low interest rates [1] Group 1: Deposit Scale and Interest Rate Sensitivity - The deposit scale is not sensitive to the reduction in non-interbank deposit rates, primarily due to the manual interest compensation rectification in April 2024, which caused a short-term outflow of deposits to asset management products [2] - Despite several rounds of deposit rate cuts since 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of personal and corporate deposits has aligned with the growth rate of broad money supply, with the proportion of deposits in broad money supply rising from around 48% to a peak of 52% by March 2024 [2][3] - The proportion of deposits in low-risk preference funds has shown a slight decline from a peak of 79.3% in March 2023, indicating manageable outflow pressure [2] Group 2: Impact of Deposit Rate Cuts - The disturbances caused by deposit rate cuts on fund outflows were not significant before 2024, but became more pronounced afterward due to increased price comparison willingness in a low-interest environment [3] - Following the deposit rate cuts in July and October 2024, there was a noticeable decline in the year-on-year growth of large bank deposits, indicating a shift towards asset management products [3][4] - The current round of deposit rate cuts is not expected to lead to a significant tightening of the funding environment, as the year-on-year growth of deposits has remained stable despite the cuts [4] Group 3: Future Expectations - The attractiveness of asset management products relative to deposits is expected to decrease due to the ongoing adjustments in performance benchmarks and the gradual implementation of net value rectification [4] - The company anticipates that the ticket interest strategy will continue to prevail, with high-grade short-duration credit bonds likely to benefit from some funds flowing from deposits to asset management products [4]

重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of Tencent's Hunyuan Game visual generation platform marks a significant advancement in the application of AI within the gaming industry, potentially transforming production paradigms and promoting diversified development in the sector [1][2]. Summary by Sections Product Features - The Hunyuan Game platform enhances industrial-level content production efficiency by up to several dozen times. Key features include: 1. AI Art Pipeline: Integrates multiple AI tools to streamline the workflow from inspiration to concept sketches and standard character views [2]. 2. Real-time Canvas: Allows designers to quickly generate and adjust concept designs through hand-drawn sketches, enabling a "draw and see" approach [2]. 3. AI 2D Art Generation: Understands various gaming terms and concepts to accurately reproduce creative ideas [2]. 4. Professional Character Multi-view Generation: Can create standard three-view and 360° rotation videos from a single character artwork, reducing the time from 12 hours to between a few minutes and 30 minutes, achieving a 300% efficiency increase for art teams [2]. Model Overview - Hunyuan Game is positioned as the first industrial-grade content asset generation model in the AIGC series, comprising four major game image models and five visual models. The game image models include: 1. Game Raw Image Model Base 2. Special Effects Generation Model 3. Transparent Image Generation Model 4. Character Original Artwork Generation Model - The special effects generation model is the first in the industry to meet top game standards, covering 17 types of effects and five major styles [3]. - The five video models include: 1. Image-to-Video Base Model (I2V) 2. Character Multi-view Model 3. Character Dynamic Illustration Model 4. Game Video Super-resolution Model 5. Real-time Interactive Model, which enables the interactive generation of dynamic content for game production videos [3]. Investment Outlook - The continuous development of AI technology is expected to enhance efficiency in the gaming and content production industries, leading to a flourishing of content creation. The company maintains a "buy" rating for the cultural dissemination sector [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the development of a sentiment timing model based on the analysis of limit-up stocks, "board strategies," and the profit effect, which successfully predicts short-term market sentiment changes [1]. Group 1: Sentiment Timing Model Construction - The annualized return of the sentiment timing model portfolio is 6.65% with a volatility of 15.37% and a maximum drawdown of 29.39% [2]. - The model also performs well when applied to broad indices such as the CSI 300 [2]. Group 2: Improvements to the Model - Improvement 1: By incorporating market trend judgments, the annualized return of the sentiment timing model portfolio increases to 9.41%, with a volatility of 17.98% and a maximum drawdown of 46.35% [3]. - Improvement 2: After applying factor weighting to different sentiment indicators, the annualized return reaches 9.68%, with a reduced volatility of 13.31% and a maximum drawdown of 24.47% [4].

本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 重要提醒 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 ...

更多国泰海通研究和服务 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 ...

报告导读： 4月财政收支增速边际回升，反映经济韧性。二季度或主要加快落实存量政 策，关注城市更新项目的进展以及两新政策的力度。 狭义收入：增速继续回升。 2025 年 1-4 月，全国一般公共预算收入同比下降 0.4% ，但是 4 月当月增 速 1.9% ，相比 3 月的增速 0.3% 有所回升。在海外不确定性扰动、我国 PPI 价格低位运行的情况下， 4 月财政收入增速回升反映了积极财政发力后，经济表现出一定的韧性。从主要分项看，增值税、消费 税、企业所得税收入增速边际回落。个人所得税收入增速明显回升。此外，出口退税增速虽然边际回落， 但是表现尚可，或与出口受转口贸易的支撑有关。接下来，随着关税局势缓和，外需或边际回升。此外， 非税收入增速持续回落，可能对地方收入有所拖累。 狭义支出：增速平稳，保障民生。 2025 年 1-4 月，全国一般公共预算支出同比增长 4.6% ，其中从 4 月当月同比增长 5.8% ，相比 3 月的增速 5.7% 略微抬升。从节奏看，目前支出进度与过去两年的同期 水平大体相当。这体现出，财政政策仍较为积极，对经济保持应有的支持力度。 政府性基金：收入回升，支出提速。 2025 年 ...

报告导读： SLG赛道因其高用户付费、长生命周期、全球化适配性，具备结构性投资机 会。中国厂商在出海领域的快速发展，以及SLG轻量化、融合化的转型，为其带来新的 发展机会，建议关注拥有成熟产品矩阵、全球化发行能力及融合玩法储备的优质公司 。 建议关注拥有成熟产品矩阵、全球化发行能力及融合玩法储备的优质公司。 在当前全球手游市场增速放缓 的背景下， SLG 赛道因其高用户付费、长生命周期、全球化适配性，仍具备结构性投资机会。 SLG 厂家 切入玩法创新赛道， SLG+ 模拟经营等玩法吸引轻度用户，降低买量成本，副玩法买量通过塔防、肉鸽等 机制提升转化率； SLG 与小游戏的结合已经涌现成功案例，未来有望进一步成为赛道主流发展方向之 一。头部厂商具备长线运营能力和技术壁垒，叠加技术降本能力和本地化深度，护城河较为稳固，成熟产 品有望为厂商持续提供盈利支撑。 热门单品表现强势，国内厂商出海优势显著。 SLG （ Simulation Game ，策略游戏）具有长生命周 期、高用户付费（ ARPU ）和强社交粘性等特点。 2024 年全球策略游戏以 175 亿美元收入位居手游品 类榜首，中国厂商发行的《 Last W ...