老徐抓AI趋势
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盈米小帮投顾团队-组合复盘
老徐抓AI趋势· 2025-12-19 10:01
Core Viewpoint - The global investment strategy has shown resilience despite a 1.47% decline last week, outperforming individual markets like the US and Vietnam [1][6]. Weekly Market Review - Global equity markets experienced a weak performance last week, with most major markets declining, particularly the US market. However, gold prices rose by 2.59%, and bond assets strengthened, providing a buffer for the investment portfolio [6][9]. - The global investment portfolio's drawdown was controlled, primarily due to a 12% allocation in gold, which effectively hedged against equity downturns [9][10]. Performance Summary - The global investment strategy has achieved a year-to-date return of 17.44%, aligning with the expected return goals. The "Lazy Balanced" strategy, which has a balanced allocation between stocks and bonds, has yielded approximately 12.88%, marking a new annual high since its inception [3][10][14]. - The "Lazy Balanced" strategy is designed for lower volatility and is suitable for investors sensitive to market fluctuations, aiming for relatively stable returns through global diversification [12][15]. Portfolio Adjustments - As the year-end approaches, the investment team has made strategic adjustments to the portfolio for 2026, adopting a core + satellite strategy. This includes increasing allocations in A-shares and precious metals while reducing holdings in high-dividend assets, aiming for a more balanced asset allocation to enhance stability and reduce volatility [18][20].
招人!欢迎真正懂期权交易、也愿意训练 AI 的朋友,来老徐工作室一起做点硬核的事
老徐抓AI趋势· 2025-12-16 01:04
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of AI on options trading, emphasizing that the future competitive traders will be those who understand how to leverage AI for executing trading logic rather than merely being fast at monitoring the market [5][6]. Group 1: AI's Role in Options Trading - Options trading is entering an AI-native era, where AI can track macro data, Federal Reserve policies, and market sentiment in real-time [6][9]. - AI is transforming complex options trading systems into capabilities that can be systematized, trained, and replicated, provided that traders possess sufficient knowledge to instruct AI correctly [9]. Group 2: Traditional vs. AI-Enhanced Trading - Historically, a mature options trading system relied on long-term experience, complex strategy dissection, and strong execution and review capabilities [7][8]. - The current landscape is changing, with AI reducing the barriers to entry in options trading, which has traditionally been a high-threshold field [8]. Group 3: Team and Project Overview - The company is building an AI-native investment research and trading operation system, focusing on creating a long-term, evolving options trading intelligence system [13][14]. - The project is not a short-term initiative but aims to develop a comprehensive AI-driven options trading agent that integrates macroeconomic and tech stock research [11][16]. Group 4: Job Responsibilities and Requirements - The role involves breaking down options trading strategies into reusable AI decision logic, training and validating the AI trading agent, and designing workflows and risk control mechanisms [18]. - Candidates should have a background in financial engineering, real options trading experience, and the ability to structure trading logic for AI applications [22][23].
哈佛老徐:大空头Burry预警,美股将陷入“2000年式熊市”,AI泡沫两年内破灭?
老徐抓AI趋势· 2025-12-14 01:06
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the warnings from Michael Burry regarding the potential collapse of the AI boom within the next two years, emphasizing the importance of understanding his perspective rather than simply agreeing or disagreeing with him [2][4]. Group 1: Michael Burry's Profile - Michael Burry is characterized as an "outlier" with a medical background and unique personal experiences that shape his ability to see risks that others overlook [7]. - His approach involves thorough analysis, such as reviewing thousands of mortgage contracts before the 2008 financial crisis, showcasing his "superpower" in identifying hidden risks [7]. - Burry often stands against consensus, remaining calm when others are excited and analyzing structures when others are panicking, providing a unique perspective in financial history [7]. Group 2: Current AI Market Analysis - The current AI market is not in a bubble, as it is still in a phase of productivity breakthroughs and infrastructure development, with real demand and practical applications [8][10]. - However, the potential for a bubble could form rapidly within three to six months due to excessive growth expectations [10]. - The distinction is made that Burry's logic is not about the current state of AI being a bubble, but rather that future rapid growth could lead to a bubble [10]. Group 3: Utilizing Burry's Insights - Investors should view Burry's emotional signals as indicators of market consensus, where his heightened concerns may suggest a strong market sentiment [15]. - Understanding the structural risks and opportunities he identifies, such as his focus on companies like Tesla and Palantir, is crucial for investors [15]. - Burry's ability to identify risks often precedes market recognition by two to three years, highlighting the importance of "lead time" in investment strategies [15]. Group 4: Future Market Trends - The article predicts that the capital market will not wait for results to rise, suggesting a trajectory of explosion, overheating, bubble formation, tightening, and differentiation over the next two years [18]. - The emphasis is on the need for investors to adapt to market cycles rather than seeking to predict outcomes, focusing on risk-reward ratios [10][18]. - The future of AI is expected to see significant developments, with companies like Google and Tesla advancing their capabilities, indicating a potential for explosive growth in the coming years [16].
哈佛老徐:问了拉斯16个问题后,未来25年的底层逻辑我终于悟了!
老徐抓AI趋势· 2025-12-13 01:07
Core Insights - The article emphasizes that the next major economic opportunity will be driven by AI, contrasting it with the previous two decades dominated by real estate [11][12] - It highlights the importance of individuals connecting with AI to benefit from this new trend, suggesting that those who can leverage AI will have a significant advantage [12][14] Group 1: Economic Trends - The past two decades saw wealth accumulation linked to real estate, with various sectors benefiting from this trend [9] - The article posits that AI will surpass real estate in terms of economic impact over the next twenty years, marking a significant shift in wealth generation [11] - The disparity between individuals will increasingly depend on their ability to engage with AI, either by using it or investing in it [12][18] Group 2: AI Utilization - Companies that effectively integrate AI into their operations can achieve unprecedented efficiency, as demonstrated by the practices of Supertrends, which utilizes AI to analyze vast amounts of data [15][17] - The article suggests that the ability to use AI will determine job security and future prospects for individuals, making it essential for professionals to adopt AI tools in their work [20] - Ordinary individuals are encouraged to find ways to incorporate AI into their roles to enhance productivity and outcomes [20] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The article discusses the potential for small teams to create billion-dollar companies by leveraging AI, which democratizes access to capabilities previously reserved for larger firms [24][26] - It emphasizes that the efficiency gains from using AI can lead to significant shifts in industry dynamics, making it a critical area for investment and innovation [26] - The author recommends reading works by thought leaders like Lars to understand the structural changes in the economy driven by AI [22]
盈米小帮投顾团队-第22次信号发车
老徐抓AI趋势· 2025-12-12 08:41
Core Insights - The performance of the investment portfolios has validated the company's judgment over the past three years, indicating a global allocation strategy with a trend of oscillating upward [1][9] - The "Lazy Balanced" portfolio has shown a year-to-date increase of 13.89%, while the "Rui Global" portfolio has returned to a 19.19% gain after two weeks of consecutive increases [1][12] Weekly Market Review - Global markets experienced increased volatility, with most markets showing some rebound. A-shares rose by 0.99%, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.32%. The U.S. market saw a rise of 1.13%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 increased by 2.59% [7][9] - The bond market showed overall weakness, with the China bond index down by 0.27% and U.S. bonds down by 1%. Gold also experienced a slight decline of 0.49% [7][9] Portfolio Performance - The "Rui Global" portfolio increased by 0.72% this week, reaffirming the logic of "oscillating upward." The portfolio's performance over the past three years has provided sufficient validation for the investment strategy [9][12] - The "Lazy Balanced" portfolio demonstrated lower volatility and quicker recovery, suitable for investors seeking a more stable investment rhythm. It achieved a weekly increase of 0.42% and a year-to-date return of 13.89% [12][13] Investment Strategy - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balanced allocation across different assets to manage overall volatility effectively. This strategy is particularly relevant in the current market environment, where differentiation among asset classes is crucial [7][9] - The company encourages investors to continue with regular investments, especially during market corrections, as these periods can present the best buying opportunities [9][12]
哈佛老徐:我们把Reportify重做了一遍!
老徐抓AI趋势· 2025-12-12 01:05
前言 过去几个月里,我们偷偷做了一件"体力活 + 心力活"都拉满的事情。 我们把 Reportify 从底层拆开,又重新焊了回去。 Reportify 3.0 经历了长达数十天的内测后,终于在前几天正式和大家见面了。内测这段时间里,我们收到了大量来自用户朋友们的反馈,有拍桌子的,也 有夸得飞起的。每条建议我们都看了,也都改了。 你想象一下:每天 10 点,特斯拉投研助理自动给你发日报;早上起床,中国宏观和美股宏观两个助理已经把今天的重点都整理好了。 会不会像我一样,露出老父亲般欣慰的笑容 这就是我们希望 Reportify 3.0 给你带来的体验:不是一个工具,而是一群 AI 同事。 闲话少叙 解锁 Reportify 3.0 让AI成为你的专属投研助理 投资的关键 不仅是把逻辑弄清楚,而是持续跟踪关键变量 这一次,我们不是在做一个"版本更新"。 说句可能有点"技术味"的话:Reportify 3.0 是一次底层范式的重启。 从 1.0 的 Copilot 模式,到 2.0 的 Deep Search 框架,到今天的 Agent 平台化,我们跨过了那个过去只能憧憬、现在终于能落地的时代:AI 不再只是帮你总 ...
哈佛老徐:为什么突然这么多人开始看好谷歌?聊聊背后的三个本质逻辑
老徐抓AI趋势· 2025-12-07 10:46
Core Viewpoint - The AI industry is experiencing a significant turning point, with renewed attention on Google (Alphabet) due to its long-term strategic positioning and technological advancements, particularly in the context of TPU (Tensor Processing Unit) versus GPU (Graphics Processing Unit) [2][10]. TPU - Google's TPU is being highlighted as 30% cheaper than NVIDIA's GPU, raising concerns about NVIDIA's market position if Google shifts to using TPU extensively and potentially offers it to competitors like Meta and Amazon [4]. - Historical context shows that similar concerns have arisen before, but Google's TPU, now in its seventh generation, has been in development for eight years, indicating a long-term strategy rather than a sudden emergence [6]. Organizational Structure - Google is not merely a search advertising company; it operates as a research-driven enterprise with several Nobel laureates contributing to its projects, showcasing its commitment to scientific research [7][8]. - The restructuring into Alphabet allowed Google to manage various subsidiaries independently, fostering innovation without the pressure of immediate profitability from its core search business [8]. Vision and Infrastructure - Google has invested in critical internet infrastructure, including undersea cables, positioning itself as a leader in the foundational elements of the internet [9]. - The market is recognizing that the next phase of AI development will focus on the ability to invest in foundational infrastructure rather than just model size, with Google being one of the few companies capable of managing the entire AI infrastructure chain [10][12]. Long-term Strategy - Google's strength lies in its comprehensive capabilities across algorithms, hardware, scientific research, quantum computing, data centers, and software ecosystems, making it a formidable player in the AI landscape [12][13]. - The company is not driven by short-term market fluctuations but by its long-term research, engineering, organizational, and infrastructural capabilities, which contribute to its unique position in the industry [13][15]. Conclusion - The future of AI is poised for rapid development, and companies like Google, with their extensive investments and capabilities, are likely to be at the forefront of this revolution [16].
哈佛老徐:马斯克对谈82岁传奇投资人Ron Barron,提前剧透未来十年科技格局
老徐抓AI趋势· 2025-12-07 09:55
Core Insights - The conversation between Ron Barron and Elon Musk provides a preview of the technological landscape for the next decade, emphasizing AI as the central theme across Musk's ventures [4] - Musk's long-term vision revolves around three key elements: a 100GW space computing cluster, a 6 trillion parameter model named Grok5, and a significant increase in Tesla's sales over the next three years [4] Group 1: OpenAI's Origins - Musk played a pivotal role in the establishment of OpenAI, driven by concerns over AI's potential risks to humanity, contrasting Google's profit-driven approach with OpenAI's non-profit and open-source model [9][12] - Musk's initial contributions included funding, strategic direction, and assembling a key team, which laid the foundation for OpenAI's development [10][12] Group 2: xAI's Strategy - Musk identifies three critical components for AI companies: talent, computing power, and data, asserting that these are the core elements that drive success in the AI sector [14][15] - The Colossus2 computing cluster, developed by xAI, aims to be the first in history to exceed 1GW of computing power, setting a new standard in the industry [17] Group 3: Grok5 Model - Grok5 is projected to be a groundbreaking model with 6 trillion parameters, doubling the capacity of its predecessor, Grok4, and is expected to launch in the first quarter of next year [20] - The model's capabilities are anticipated to significantly enhance visual understanding, multi-modal processing, and tool utilization, which are essential for advancements in autonomous driving and robotics [22] Group 4: Space Computing Vision - Musk proposes the construction of a 100GW computing center in space to address the limitations of terrestrial power and cooling, leveraging SpaceX's capabilities for transportation [23] - This ambitious plan could revolutionize AI model training, enabling unprecedented advancements in capabilities and efficiency [25] Group 5: Tesla's Future - Tesla plans to manufacture its own AI chips to meet the anticipated surge in demand from its electric vehicles and robots, aiming for performance comparable to Nvidia's offerings at a fraction of the cost [26][27] - Musk's confidence in Tesla's growth over the next three years is underscored by the urgency to establish in-house production capabilities, reflecting a significant strategic commitment [27] Group 6: Competitive Landscape - Musk's ability to execute on ambitious projects is highlighted as a key differentiator, positioning him at the forefront of the AI and technology competition [29] - The future of AI is seen as a critical battleground, with companies needing to accelerate their efforts in AI and chip development to remain competitive [34]
哈佛老徐:和拉斯深聊90分钟后,我发现AI时代,普通人其实有非常大的机会
老徐抓AI趋势· 2025-12-07 01:06
Core Insights - The article emphasizes that the emergence of AI represents a significant turning point in human civilization, marking a shift from traditional trends to tangible realities [2][6] - It highlights the importance of health and longevity in the context of technological advancements, suggesting that future technologies may alter the aging process [10][11] - The article posits that AI is not merely a technology but a new form of existence, indicating a shift in the evolutionary chain of intelligence [13][15] Group 1: Future of Humanity and Health - The article discusses a projection that human aging will not follow a linear path due to technological advancements, potentially allowing individuals to maintain a younger biological age than their chronological age [10][11] - It stresses the importance of health management in the coming decades, as maintaining health will be crucial for longevity in a future where aging may plateau [11] Group 2: AI as a New Evolutionary Stage - AI is described as a continuation of the evolutionary chain, suggesting that humanity is not the final stage of intelligence [13] - The article argues that while AI may dominate future intelligence, it does not necessarily imply the extinction of humanity, as higher intelligence often correlates with greater empathy and moral responsibility [15] Group 3: Wealth Distribution and AI - A significant point made is that historically, major technological advancements initially concentrate wealth among a few, but over time, the majority of benefits flow to the broader population, with only 4% of the gains remaining with the original innovators [17] - The article asserts that the true wealth from AI will belong to those who can effectively utilize it, rather than the companies that create it [19] Group 4: Opportunities for Individuals - Two primary avenues for individuals to capitalize on AI are identified: using AI in their respective fields and investing in AI technologies [19][20] - The article emphasizes that early adoption of AI tools can create significant competitive advantages for individuals in various industries [20] Group 5: Investment in AI - Investing in AI is framed as a critical strategy for the next decade, with the potential to reshape global capital expenditures and industry profit structures [21] - The article warns that failing to invest in AI could result in missing out on substantial wealth generation opportunities in the coming years [21] Group 6: The Impact of AI on Employment - The article notes that the AI-driven job displacement is occurring quietly, with companies reducing their workforce while increasing profits, indicating a trend towards automation [25][26] - It predicts that the pace of AI adoption will accelerate, leading to a widening income gap between those who can leverage AI and those who cannot [26] Group 7: Conclusion and Call to Action - The article concludes by urging individuals to embrace AI as a tool for enhancing productivity and competitiveness, suggesting that the next three to five years represent a critical window for capitalizing on AI advancements [28]
盈米小帮投顾团队-第21次信号发车
老徐抓AI趋势· 2025-12-05 10:39
Core Viewpoint - The global asset market has shown a significant recovery over the past week, driven by improved sentiment and expectations, with various asset classes, including equities and precious metals, experiencing rebounds [1]. Group 1: Weekly Market Review - The overall market saw a rebound last week, with major stock indices closing in the green and gold prices rising, while bonds experienced slight weakness [2]. - Specific performance metrics include: - A-shares (CSI 300) increased by 2.9% - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech index rose by 1.8% - The Nasdaq 100 in the U.S. gained 1.9% - The DAX in Germany increased by 1.5% - The Nikkei 225 in Japan rose by 1.4% - The Sensex 30 in India increased by 0.9% - The Ho Chi Minh Index in Vietnam rose by 2.0% [2]. Group 2: Global Investment Strategy - The "Rui Ding Tou Global Version" showed the most significant rebound, recovering from a previous drawdown of 14.67% to a current gain of 18.34% [6]. - Historical data indicates that this investment strategy has maintained stable performance over the past three years, validating the approach that downturns present excellent buying opportunities [6]. - Due to the involvement of overseas assets, there is currently a daily purchase limit of over 1,000 yuan, which has been tightened from a previous limit of 20,000 yuan [6]. Group 3: Balanced Investment Strategy - The "Lazy Balanced" strategy also saw positive performance last week, albeit with a more moderate increase compared to the Rui Ding Tou Global Version [11]. - This strategy is characterized by lower volatility and risk, making it suitable for investors seeking more stable asset performance [11]. - The performance metrics for the Lazy Balanced strategy indicate a year-to-date return of 13.13% and a projected return of 7.87% for 2024, with a 2025 projection of 18.34% [8][14].