Core Insights - The performance of the investment portfolios has validated the company's judgment over the past three years, indicating a global allocation strategy with a trend of oscillating upward [1][9] - The "Lazy Balanced" portfolio has shown a year-to-date increase of 13.89%, while the "Rui Global" portfolio has returned to a 19.19% gain after two weeks of consecutive increases [1][12] Weekly Market Review - Global markets experienced increased volatility, with most markets showing some rebound. A-shares rose by 0.99%, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.32%. The U.S. market saw a rise of 1.13%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 increased by 2.59% [7][9] - The bond market showed overall weakness, with the China bond index down by 0.27% and U.S. bonds down by 1%. Gold also experienced a slight decline of 0.49% [7][9] Portfolio Performance - The "Rui Global" portfolio increased by 0.72% this week, reaffirming the logic of "oscillating upward." The portfolio's performance over the past three years has provided sufficient validation for the investment strategy [9][12] - The "Lazy Balanced" portfolio demonstrated lower volatility and quicker recovery, suitable for investors seeking a more stable investment rhythm. It achieved a weekly increase of 0.42% and a year-to-date return of 13.89% [12][13] Investment Strategy - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balanced allocation across different assets to manage overall volatility effectively. This strategy is particularly relevant in the current market environment, where differentiation among asset classes is crucial [7][9] - The company encourages investors to continue with regular investments, especially during market corrections, as these periods can present the best buying opportunities [9][12]

前言 过去几个月里，我们偷偷做了一件"体力活 + 心力活"都拉满的事情。 我们把 Reportify 从底层拆开，又重新焊了回去。 Reportify 3.0 经历了长达数十天的内测后，终于在前几天正式和大家见面了。内测这段时间里，我们收到了大量来自用户朋友们的反馈，有拍桌子的，也 有夸得飞起的。每条建议我们都看了，也都改了。 你想象一下：每天 10 点，特斯拉投研助理自动给你发日报；早上起床，中国宏观和美股宏观两个助理已经把今天的重点都整理好了。 会不会像我一样，露出老父亲般欣慰的笑容 这就是我们希望 Reportify 3.0 给你带来的体验：不是一个工具，而是一群 AI 同事。 闲话少叙 解锁 Reportify 3.0 让AI成为你的专属投研助理 投资的关键 不仅是把逻辑弄清楚，而是持续跟踪关键变量 这一次，我们不是在做一个"版本更新"。 说句可能有点"技术味"的话：Reportify 3.0 是一次底层范式的重启。 从 1.0 的 Copilot 模式，到 2.0 的 Deep Search 框架，到今天的 Agent 平台化，我们跨过了那个过去只能憧憬、现在终于能落地的时代：AI 不再只是帮你总 ...

Core Viewpoint - The AI industry is experiencing a significant turning point, with renewed attention on Google (Alphabet) due to its long-term strategic positioning and technological advancements, particularly in the context of TPU (Tensor Processing Unit) versus GPU (Graphics Processing Unit) [2][10]. TPU - Google's TPU is being highlighted as 30% cheaper than NVIDIA's GPU, raising concerns about NVIDIA's market position if Google shifts to using TPU extensively and potentially offers it to competitors like Meta and Amazon [4]. - Historical context shows that similar concerns have arisen before, but Google's TPU, now in its seventh generation, has been in development for eight years, indicating a long-term strategy rather than a sudden emergence [6]. Organizational Structure - Google is not merely a search advertising company; it operates as a research-driven enterprise with several Nobel laureates contributing to its projects, showcasing its commitment to scientific research [7][8]. - The restructuring into Alphabet allowed Google to manage various subsidiaries independently, fostering innovation without the pressure of immediate profitability from its core search business [8]. Vision and Infrastructure - Google has invested in critical internet infrastructure, including undersea cables, positioning itself as a leader in the foundational elements of the internet [9]. - The market is recognizing that the next phase of AI development will focus on the ability to invest in foundational infrastructure rather than just model size, with Google being one of the few companies capable of managing the entire AI infrastructure chain [10][12]. Long-term Strategy - Google's strength lies in its comprehensive capabilities across algorithms, hardware, scientific research, quantum computing, data centers, and software ecosystems, making it a formidable player in the AI landscape [12][13]. - The company is not driven by short-term market fluctuations but by its long-term research, engineering, organizational, and infrastructural capabilities, which contribute to its unique position in the industry [13][15]. Conclusion - The future of AI is poised for rapid development, and companies like Google, with their extensive investments and capabilities, are likely to be at the forefront of this revolution [16].

前言 前两天，82 岁的传奇投资人 Ron Barron 和马斯克做了一场隔空对谈。 对谈本身不算罕见，但罕见的是：马斯克在短短几十分钟里，把自己对 AI、算力、特斯拉、机器人的全部长期判断，几乎重新讲了一遍。 我重复看了几遍。 越看越觉得，这是一场能"提前剧透未来十年科技格局"的对谈。 很多人以为马斯克的公司多、战线长，容易分心；但如果你把他过去十年的所有动作——特斯拉、SpaceX、xAI、星舰、机器人、自动驾驶、脑机接口 ——放在一起看，你会突然发现：所有东西的底层，其实都指向同一个目标：AI。 而他这次画的"饼"，几乎全部围绕三个关键词：100GW 太空算力集群、6 万亿参数的 Grok5、以及特斯拉未来 3 年的销量爆发。 下面我把他讲的核心内容，以及我补充的更深层逻辑，系统讲给你听。 OpenAI 的世界线 本来是马斯克开启的 马斯克聊到 OpenAI 的起源时，说了件非常关键的事。 早几年，他和谷歌创始人拉里·佩奇一起喝酒。佩奇当着一大群人的面说："马斯克是认为人类比机器更重要的物种。" （ 谷歌创始人拉里·佩奇 马斯克当场意识到：如果未来 AI 快速发展，谷歌的立场可能会把人类置于风险之中。 ...

前言 读懂未来 把握红利 每一代人都会遇到一次时代分水岭，只是大多数人并不知道自己正站在这条分水岭上。AI 的出现，让这种变化从模糊的趋势变成了肉眼可见的现实。 前两周，我和 《逃不开的经济周期》《超智能与未来》的作者，也是写了 17 本书、创立过 13 家科技公司、投资做得风生水起的名人，被誉为欧 洲的瑞·达里奥 拉斯·特维德（Lars Tvede） 做了一次长达 1.5 小时的深度对谈。 访谈的全程将会以直播的形式为大家放出，欢迎预约直播 他之所以被称为"欧洲的瑞·达里奥"，主要原因有三点。第一，他的趋势判断不是靠感觉，而是靠数据与模型说话；第二，他背后有一家强大的 AI 公司， 每天让 AI 自动阅读 10 万篇科学论文与资讯，再进行交叉验证，因此他的判断建立在极庞大的知识底盘之上；第三，他本人的投资能力同样过硬。 2016 年，他创立的风险基金 "北欧之眼"（Nordic Eye），是北欧历史上最赚钱的风险投资基金之一。 （先要看拉斯的书可以下单，真的很好，我每本都真读了才给大家真心推荐 未来 20 年 人类的年龄不会再"线性变老" 拉斯在书里做过一个非常关键的推算。 （在书里，有这么一幅图 （想更深 ...

过去一周，全球资产在情绪修复与预期改善的共同作用下出现明显回暖，从权益到贵金属均呈现出不同程度的反弹。 伴随这一波市场情绪的回升，各组合的周度表现也同步改善，前期调整幅度较大的品种重新站上更高收益区间，整体节奏回到既定趋势。 本周整理依旧围绕三部分展开：一周行情复盘、睿定投全球版、懒人均衡。所有数据均源自动态实盘记录， 旨在为朋友们提供一个清晰、完整的周度更 新参考框架。 一周行情复盘｜市场集体回暖 | | | 涨跌幅 | | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ａ股 | 沪深300 | 2.9% | 中债新综合全价 | -0.2% | | 红利 | 中证红利 | 1.2% | 美国20年+国债 | -1.0% | | 港股 | 恒生科技 | 1.8% | 下湿金 | 3.4% | | 美国 | 纳指100 | 1.9% | | | | 德国 | 德国DAX | 1.5% | | | | 日本 | 日经225 | 1.4% | 省心债组合 | -0.14% | | 印度 | 印度sensex30 | 0.9% | 懒人—均衡组合 | 1.46% | | 越南 | 胡 ...

Core Viewpoint - Understanding Google is key to comprehending the next phase of AI development [6] Group 1: AI Market Dynamics - Google has significantly increased its capital expenditure from $30 billion four years ago to over $90 billion this year, with the additional funds directed towards AI [6] - Global investment in AI is projected to exceed $1 trillion this year, with infrastructure spending expected to surpass the total of the past 10-20 years [6][8] - Current demand for AI exceeds supply, indicating that the market's true needs are far from being met [8] Group 2: Google's AI Strategy - Google is adopting an "AI-first" approach, restructuring its entire organization around AI, including physical infrastructure, research systems, and product offerings [13] - The company is not merely developing AI products but is transforming itself into an AI-centric organization, aiming to pave the way towards Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) [13][16] - Google's AI capabilities are being integrated across various domains, enhancing their overall effectiveness and creating a synergistic effect [16] Group 3: Future AI Developments - In the next 12 months, AI is expected to evolve from being a "question-answering robot" to a more capable "agent" that can complete tasks [17] - This shift will significantly impact the labor market, marking a new phase of AI influence that has not yet been realized [19] Group 4: Quantum Computing - Google is making substantial investments in quantum computing, which is likened to the state of AI five years ago, with the potential to revolutionize understanding of the universe [22][24] - The company is positioned as a leader in both AI and quantum computing, indicating a dual advantage in technological advancement [24] Group 5: Investment Perspective - The future years are anticipated to be a revolutionary period for AI, with rapid advancements driven by AI and chip technology [26] - Continuous tracking and in-depth research are essential for investing in AI and hard technology, as understanding the underlying logic is crucial for seizing opportunities [26]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of NVIDIA and its implications for the AI industry, emphasizing that the demand for GPUs is just beginning and that NVIDIA's ecosystem is crucial for its dominance in the market [4][19]. Financial Performance - NVIDIA's Q3 revenue reached $57 billion, a 62% year-over-year increase, with net profit at $31.9 billion, up 65% [6]. - The outlook for Q4 is even more optimistic, with projected revenue of $65 billion, representing an 85% year-over-year growth [7]. AI Market Dynamics - The article questions whether AI is a bubble, suggesting that the real issue is the ongoing and increasing demand for GPUs, which is far from reaching its peak [8]. - Three accelerating trends are identified that will drive GPU demand: 1. Non-AI software migrating from CPU to GPU, indicating a significant shift in data processing needs [9]. 2. Generative AI replacing traditional machine learning, leading to substantial changes in advertising effectiveness, with Meta's ad conversion rates increasing by 5% on Instagram and 3% on Facebook [10]. 3. The imminent explosion of autonomous driving, robotics, and intelligent agents, which are expected to grow at a rate ten times faster than current expectations [11]. Competitive Advantage - NVIDIA's competitive edge lies in its CUDA ecosystem, which supports a wide range of applications and is continuously evolving due to active developer engagement [15][16]. - The article argues that without software support, even the best hardware is ineffective, highlighting the importance of NVIDIA's established software ecosystem [16]. Strategic Investments - NVIDIA's investments in companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are not merely for chip sales but to integrate these companies into the CUDA ecosystem, enhancing its market position [18]. - The strategy aims to optimize AI models using NVIDIA's chips, thereby expanding the CUDA ecosystem and solidifying NVIDIA's dominance [18]. Future Outlook - The article posits that NVIDIA's true value lies in the anticipated $3-4 trillion annual investment in AI infrastructure, positioning the company as a foundational player in the AI era [19]. - The narrative suggests that the future of AI will be defined by those who successfully implement AI across various industries, indicating a significant opportunity for growth and innovation [21].

Core Viewpoint - The article aims to clarify the ongoing debate about the "AI bubble," emphasizing that perceptions of a bubble often stem from misunderstanding the underlying supply and demand dynamics in the AI industry [4][5]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Analysis - The first test examines whether GPUs are in surplus, with evidence from NVIDIA's latest earnings report indicating that all GPUs are operating at full capacity and are still in high demand, suggesting no inventory accumulation or production idleness [6][9]. - The article argues that the current situation reflects a structural supply-demand gap rather than a bubble, as evidenced by Elon Musk's decision to build a chip factory due to insufficient chip supply [9][11]. - The conclusion drawn is that when the entire supply chain is operating at full capacity, it indicates a supply-side imbalance rather than a bubble [11]. Group 2: Investment Viability - Concerns about whether investments in AI will yield returns are addressed, highlighting that major tech companies conduct extensive evaluations before making significant capital expenditures, such as Google's $90 billion annual investment in AI [13][15]. - The article posits that the collective decision of major corporations to invest heavily in AI, even at the risk of short-term losses, signals a strong belief in the future commercial value of AI [15][29]. - The consistency in choices made by industry giants indicates that they are prioritizing long-term growth over immediate profits, reinforcing the notion that AI is not a bubble but a critical investment opportunity [15][31]. Group 3: Historical Context and Comparisons - The article contrasts the current AI landscape with the historical internet bubble, noting that the previous issue was overbuilding (e.g., excessive fiber optics), while today's challenge is insufficient infrastructure to meet explosive demand [19][20]. - It emphasizes that the rapid pace of AI development has outstripped many people's expectations, leading to perceptions of irrationality in market valuations [20][25]. - The article clarifies that while there may be bubbles in the early-stage investment market, this does not equate to a broader industry bubble in AI, which is characterized by robust demand and investment [26]. Group 4: Future Implications - The article discusses the potential for AI to enhance human well-being by automating repetitive tasks, allowing individuals to focus on more fulfilling work, countering fears of widespread job loss [32]. - It concludes that the real risk lies in misinterpreting the AI trend as a bubble due to emotional responses rather than analyzing the fundamental supply-demand dynamics and investment behaviors [34].

Core Viewpoint - The global markets faced pressure last week, leading to a general decline, but the investment portfolio maintained a controlled drop, ensuring a stable long-term return structure [1]. Market Summary - Major markets experienced a downturn, with A-shares falling by 3.26%, Hong Kong stocks down by 2.53%, and significant declines in Germany and Japan. The US market saw a slight increase of 0.3% [2]. - The overall market sentiment was weak, with various asset classes, including gold and government bonds, also experiencing declines [2]. Portfolio Performance - The investment strategy demonstrated resilience, with the "Rui Ding Tou Global Version" only declining by 0.51% during a week of significant A-share adjustments, maintaining a year-to-date return of 16.19% [7]. - Historical performance indicates that the portfolio achieved a return of 13.13% in 2023 and is projected to yield 7.87% in 2024, showcasing the long-term advantages of global diversification [7]. Investment Strategies - The "Lazy Balanced" strategy exhibited stability with a decline of 0.6% last week, yet it has achieved a return of 11.78% since 2025, reflecting its robust performance during market volatility due to a higher bond allocation [11]. - This strategy is recommended for investors seeking to reduce volatility and pursue long-term steady growth, complementing the global version for a more balanced risk structure [11]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations, and investors are advised to avoid chasing trends. The recent rebound in the Nasdaq indicates potential recovery opportunities [14]. - The investment team plans to continue optimizing asset allocation to deliver stable and sustainable returns in the future [27].