前言 读懂未来 把握红利 上周我和拉斯·特维德做了一场一对一的深度访谈。 访谈的全程将会以直播的形式为大家放出，欢迎预约直播 老朋友应该知道，拉斯是《逃不开的经济周期》《超智能与未来》的作者，也是写了 17 本书、创立过 13 家科技公司、投资做得风生水起的名人，被誉为 欧洲的瑞·达里奥。 2016年，他创立的风险投资基金"北欧之眼"(Nordic Eye)，成为北欧有史以来最赚钱的风险基金之一。 老实讲，这次谈话的收获远远超出我的预期。书里的洞察、模型、理解，他在人身上是"活的"。很多人写未来、讲科技、谈周期，都停在"讲概念"或"想 象"，但他是建立在庞大数据基础设施之上的推断。 为什么我说他看到的未来更可信？因为他不是"瞎想未来"，而是"看见未来"。 这就是震撼我的第一点。 （这是拉斯的书， 如果你还没有看过，我真心推荐你看一看 （ 非常智慧有趣的拉斯 职业生涯关键节点 早期职业经历与入行背景 特维德的职业生涯始于金融投资领域，拥有在投资组合管理和投资银行领域长达11年的从业经历。这段早期的金融从业经历为他奠定了坚实的宏观经济与 市场分析基础，使其对经济周期的运行规律有了深入的理解。随后，在20世纪90年 ...

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's recent AI initiatives, particularly the launch of the Lingguang app and the Qianwen app, signify a strategic move to dominate the AI entry point in daily life, focusing on practical applications rather than mere information retrieval [2][19]. Group 1: Lingguang's Unique Features - Lingguang is positioned as a "full-modal general AI assistant," capable of generating interactive tools and applications beyond traditional Q&A formats, including maps, animations, and 3D models [4][5]. - The app's three main functionalities include Lingguang Dialogue, Lingguang Flash Applications (which can create small applications in 30 seconds), and Lingguang Open Eye (which provides instant information from photos) [5][12]. - The interactive map feature allows users to receive categorized location suggestions with detailed information, transforming the user experience from simple answers to actionable tools [7][18]. Group 2: Flash Applications and Ecosystem Potential - The Flash Application feature enables users to create personalized applications quickly, addressing specific needs such as calorie tracking for takeout meals, showcasing the app's adaptability and user-centric design [9][11]. - Lingguang's ability to modify application structures in real-time using natural language enhances user engagement and reflects its ambition to create a vast ecosystem of personalized tools [11][20]. - The potential for Lingguang to address long-tail user needs through low-cost, on-demand application generation could lead to significant ecosystem growth, filling gaps that traditional products overlook [18][20]. Group 3: Strategic Implications for Alibaba - Alibaba aims to reclaim the "entry rights" in the mobile era, shifting the focus from app-based entry points to integrating AI into everyday life scenarios [19][20]. - The combination of Qianwen and Lingguang is designed to meet both large-scale and niche user demands, creating a comprehensive solution for various daily tasks and challenges [18][20]. - The overarching goal is to redefine user interaction with AI, moving from simple question-answering to delivering actionable, interactive solutions that enhance daily life [21].

Market Overview - The global markets experienced a general decline, with major indices such as the Nasdaq down by 3.17% and the Shanghai Composite down by 2.07% [1] - Only the Indian Sensex and the Ho Chi Minh Index saw slight increases of 1.69% and 4.95% respectively, while gold prices also fell [1] Investment Strategies - The "Rui Ding Tou Global Version" portfolio showed a year-to-date return of 16.79%, despite a recent minor decline due to short-term corrections in the US stock market [6] - Over the past three years, the portfolio's returns were 13.13% for 2023, 7.87% for 2024, and higher for the current year, highlighting the benefits of global diversification [6] - The "Lazy Balanced" portfolio, which includes bonds, experienced a smaller drawdown with a return of approximately 12.46% this year, indicating strong volatility resistance [10] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current market downturn is viewed as a technical correction following a strong performance, rather than a sign of systemic weakness [2] - The focus for the upcoming period should be on the earnings performance of leading companies, as this will drive market momentum [14][21] - The valuation of US stocks has decreased to below 60%, suggesting potential for further declines if the market continues to adjust [14] Portfolio Performance Metrics - The "Rui Ding Tou Global Version" portfolio has a cumulative return of +439.72% since inception, with a maximum drawdown of -35.21% and an annualized volatility of 18.18% [12] - The "Lazy Balanced" portfolio has a cumulative return of +8.50% since inception, with a maximum drawdown of -27.45% and an annualized volatility of 10.96% [14] - The "Small Helper Dividend" portfolio focuses on high-dividend funds, achieving a cumulative return of +366.07% [17] Investment Recommendations - The current market conditions suggest that it is a suitable time for regular investment in diversified portfolios, particularly those with a focus on dividend-paying assets [18][21] - The "Small Helper Hang Seng Stock Connect" portfolio remains resilient despite external market pressures, indicating a stable investment opportunity [20]

Core Viewpoint - OpenAI is planning to invest $1.4 trillion to build the world's largest computing power center, which raises questions about its funding sources and the feasibility of such a massive project [2][3]. Group 1: OpenAI's Ambitious Plans - OpenAI has signed significant contracts with chip manufacturers like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom, committing to large-scale chip purchases and data center construction, amounting to $1.4 trillion [3]. - Despite its valuation of $500 billion, OpenAI's planned investment exceeds its total worth, leading to skepticism about its ability to finance such a project [3]. Group 2: Government Involvement - OpenAI's CFO hinted at seeking government backing for the project, suggesting that it is a national-level initiative that could benefit the country [4]. - This statement sparked backlash from politicians and the public, questioning why taxpayer money should support a private enterprise [4]. Group 3: Financial Viability - The financing model for the $1.4 trillion investment is compared to a mortgage, but the rapid depreciation of computing centers poses a challenge for banks to provide loans [4][5]. - The concern is that if the cash flow return period exceeds the depreciation period, banks will be reluctant to finance such projects [4]. Group 4: Comparison with Tesla - In contrast to OpenAI's narrative-driven approach, Tesla is focused on tangible production, with Elon Musk announcing plans to manufacture chips in-house due to high demand [6]. - Musk's confidence in future chip demand reflects a different capital model, emphasizing the importance of actual production capabilities [6]. Group 5: Long-term Implications - The demand for computing power is expected to continue growing, regardless of OpenAI's success or failure, as other players in the AI space will continue to drive demand [7]. - The article suggests that the current situation is part of a larger trend towards "generalized computing power," akin to the electrification wave of the past century [13]. Group 6: Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by narrative-driven fluctuations, where perceptions of AI can shift rapidly, impacting stock valuations and investor sentiment [8][10]. - Understanding these narratives is crucial for investors, as they can present opportunities amidst market panic [10]. Group 7: Strategic Importance of Computing Power - The $1.4 trillion investment is not just a corporate issue but a matter of national strategy, as control over computing power equates to control over AI sovereignty [12]. - Major tech companies are also increasing their investments in computing power and clean energy, indicating a collective movement towards this goal [12].

Core Viewpoint - The global market showed significant divergence last week, with A-shares continuing to rebound while US, Japanese, and Vietnamese markets experienced declines. Bonds remained stable, and gold emerged as a strong safe-haven asset, highlighting the advantages of a global allocation strategy that seeks steady progress amidst short-term volatility [1][2][3]. Market Performance Summary - A-shares (CSI 300) increased by 0.90%, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.88%. In contrast, the US Nasdaq 100 fell by 1.39%, Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped by 2.86%, and Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh Index decreased by 2.25%. The overall bond market remained stable, with Chinese bonds nearly flat and US bonds experiencing a slight decline. Gold prices rose approximately 1.6%, marking it as one of the few standout assets [1][2]. Global Allocation Strategy - The global allocation strategy demonstrated resilience, with a year-to-date cumulative return of 19.43%, achieving positive growth for the third consecutive year. The returns for 2023 and 2024 are projected at 13.13% and 7.87%, respectively, showcasing the compounding advantages of global allocation [6]. Balanced Investment Approach - The "Lazy Balanced" investment strategy yielded a return of 14.01% this year, exhibiting smoother performance and stronger resistance to volatility compared to last year's 5.13% return. The bond component, despite a brief decline, quickly recovered, providing a reliable foundation for the portfolio [10]. Investment Combinations - The company launched five investment combinations this week, reflecting a strategic approach to market conditions. The "Lazy Balanced" combination currently has an equity position of around 57%, allowing for sufficient capacity to capitalize on potential market corrections [16][19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting approaches of Xiaopeng and Tesla in the development of humanoid robots, highlighting that Xiaopeng focuses on creating robots that resemble humans in movement and aesthetics, while Tesla emphasizes practical functionality and efficiency in robotic applications [5][19][30]. Group 1: Xiaopeng's Approach - Xiaopeng's robot is designed to mimic human movement with high degrees of freedom, allowing for graceful and natural actions, which is seen as an artistic expression rather than just a functional tool [9][12]. - The design philosophy of Xiaopeng is to create a robot that can perform delicate movements and poses, showcasing a vision of the future that emphasizes aesthetics and interaction [9][24]. - Xiaopeng's robot serves as a demonstration of engineering innovation and brand imagination, aiming to communicate the potential of a "Xiaopeng-style future" [19][24]. Group 2: Tesla's Approach - Tesla's robot, Optimus, is designed with a focus on core functionalities such as perception, decision-making, and execution, aiming to create a practical worker rather than a showcase model [14][21]. - The emphasis for Tesla is on commercial viability, with the goal of integrating robots into homes, factories, and warehouses as scalable labor assistants [21][28]. - Tesla's approach is characterized by a systematic and reliable engineering mindset, prioritizing the ability to perform tasks over aesthetic considerations [30][32]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The article suggests that both companies represent different stages of the same technological era, with Xiaopeng showcasing imaginative possibilities and Tesla focusing on practical applications [23][30]. - The future of robotics will likely transition from impressive demonstrations to practical applications that create real value in everyday life [28][30]. - The competition between Xiaopeng and Tesla is framed not as a matter of technological superiority but as a strategic choice in addressing different market needs [30][32].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent Tesla shareholder meeting where Elon Musk's compensation plan was approved, highlighting various ambitious plans for Tesla's future, including advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD), the introduction of CyberCab, the development of the Optimus robot, and the strategic decision to manufacture chips in-house [2][4]. Compensation Plan - Musk's compensation plan, initiated in 2018, allows him to unlock 1% of shares for each of the 12 milestones achieved, totaling a potential 12% increase in his holdings, bringing his total to approximately 25% of Tesla [6]. - The plan is based on the expectation of increasing Tesla's market value from $1.4 trillion to $8.5 trillion over the next decade, implying a sixfold increase in stock price [6]. - Despite a 75% approval rate, 25% of votes opposed the plan, reflecting polarized opinions on Musk's leadership and the potential for investment opportunities arising from this division [9]. New Strategic Directions - Musk's "new book" strategy focuses on sustainable abundance through AI, with key initiatives including FSD, CyberCab, Optimus, and in-house chip manufacturing [10]. - The FSD program is reaching a critical point where it aims to transition from supervised to fully autonomous driving, with a target for full approval in China by early 2024 [14][16]. CyberCab Development - The CyberCab, designed without a steering wheel or pedals, aims for a revolutionary manufacturing process that allows for a vehicle to be produced in under 10 seconds [18]. - Upgrades to manufacturing systems are expected to increase production capacity by 50% within the same factory space, with a target annual production of 2.7 million vehicles by the end of 2026 [20]. Optimus Robot - The Optimus robot is being developed with a focus on advanced dexterity and AI capabilities, with a production target set for 2026 [22][27]. - The robot's design incorporates a unique biomechanical approach to movement, aiming for mass production efficiency [24]. Chip Manufacturing Strategy - Tesla plans to develop its own AI chips to overcome supply chain constraints, targeting performance levels comparable to leading competitors but with significantly lower costs and power consumption [28]. - The decision to manufacture chips in-house is driven by the anticipated future demand and the need for self-sufficiency in production capabilities [28]. Roadster Launch - The highly anticipated Roadster is set to be unveiled on April 1, 2024, with promises of groundbreaking technology [30]. Energy Storage and Supply Chain - Tesla is focusing on enhancing energy storage capabilities to double the usable electricity without the need for new power plants, presenting a significant market opportunity [31]. - The company is also investing in securing its supply chain by building one of the largest lithium refining plants outside the U.S. and establishing its own cathode production lines [32]. 2026 as a Pivotal Year - The year 2026 is projected to be a critical turning point for Tesla, with multiple product launches and production milestones expected to be achieved [33].

Core Insights - AI is both an opportunity and a mechanism for elimination, with a significant portion of the population likely to be left behind if they do not embrace AI [2] - The global GDP growth rate could reach 10% due to AI, indicating the creation of a new wealth era for those who understand AI [2] - The differentiation in society will shift from educational and familial backgrounds to the ability to seize AI-related opportunities [2] Group 1: Using AI - AI acts as a productivity amplifier across various fields, enhancing efficiency in content creation, financial research, and daily tasks [4] - The company is developing AI courses to help individuals effectively utilize AI as a language partner and research assistant [4] - The initial course sessions are conducted in-person to optimize the learning experience through real-time feedback [4] Group 2: Investing in AI - The "Investing in AI" membership aims to guide individuals in identifying the right investment directions amidst the AI wave, focusing on long-term structural opportunities rather than short-term speculation [6] - The emphasis is on deep understanding rather than merely acquiring information quickly, which is crucial for investment advantage [6] Group 3: Membership Benefits - Membership includes exclusive access to resources such as the "Global Allocation Guide" and "Bull-Bear Cycle Analysis," which provide insights into asset distribution and historical trends [7][16] - Members will receive advanced membership benefits from AI research assistant reportify, which aids in generating investment research and data visualization [19] - A special course will be launched in December to teach members how to conduct research using AI [19] Group 4: Future Outlook - The next five years are critical for establishing positions in the AI era, with the potential realization of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2030 marking a significant turning point [13] - The AI dividend belongs to those who take action and adapt, with a small percentage of the population likely to benefit from the opportunities presented by AI [13] - The company encourages continuous learning and adaptation to ensure participation in the AI-driven economic landscape [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of global market diversification, highlighting that different markets exhibit varying performances, which presents investment opportunities [1][3]. Market Performance Summary - In October, A-shares remained flat with a 0% change, while the dividend index rose by 3.05%. Hong Kong stocks fell by 3.53%, and US stocks increased by 4.77%. This disparity illustrates the need for a diversified investment approach [2][1]. - The global allocation strategy outperformed in this mixed market environment, with the "Rui Ding Tou Global Version" achieving a monthly return of 2.66%, the "Lazy Balanced Portfolio" returning 2%, and the "Worry-Free Bond Portfolio" rising by 0.7% [1][6]. Diversification Benefits - The article discusses the benefits of diversification, stating that it captures more profit opportunities while effectively spreading risk. When A-shares and Hong Kong stocks weaken, the strength of US stocks and other assets supports overall performance [3][11]. - The consistent upward trend of the overall portfolio is attributed to the collaborative performance of global assets, which helps mitigate volatility [4][3]. Performance Metrics - The "Rui Ding Tou Global Version" has shown a year-to-date return of 19.98% as of November 2025, with previous annual returns of 7.87% in 2024 and 13.13% in 2023. This indicates a strong long-term structural performance rather than short-term luck [8][6][7]. - The "Lazy Balanced Portfolio" achieved a return of 2% in October and has a cumulative return of 13.83% for the year, demonstrating its stability during market fluctuations [17][14]. Investment Strategy - The article suggests that the global allocation strategy is suitable for long-term investment, as it tends to have lower volatility compared to single markets. Regular investments can help average costs and benefit from long-term compounding growth [12][13]. - The "Lazy Balanced Portfolio" is characterized as a more conservative option, with a lower equity ratio and higher bond and dividend proportions, making it suitable for investors seeking stability [17][14].

Core Insights - Tesla is approaching a significant milestone in autonomous driving with the announcement of the Cybercab, a vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals, set to begin production in Q2 of next year, indicating a paradigm shift in the automotive industry [2][5][17] - The transition from a rule-based system to an end-to-end AI learning model marks a revolutionary change in Tesla's approach to autonomous driving, enhancing safety and efficiency [10][11][12] Group 1: Autonomous Driving Technology - Tesla's autonomous driving system relies on an end-to-end AI model that learns from vast amounts of real-world driving data, totaling 60 billion miles, allowing it to recognize and react to complex driving scenarios [10][11] - The recent FSD V12 version has eliminated 330,000 lines of code, fully transitioning to a neural network-based system, which has shown improved performance and human-like driving behavior [11][12] - Tesla's AI model is designed to be interpretable, allowing users to understand the reasoning behind its decisions, enhancing safety and regulatory compliance [12] Group 2: Market Implications - The removal of the steering wheel signifies a major shift in the automotive ecosystem, potentially impacting the used car market as vehicles lacking full autonomous capabilities may see a decline in resale value [17][19] - The year 2026 is projected to be pivotal for Tesla, with the potential for a significant increase in stock value similar to the surge experienced in 2019-2020, driven by advancements in autonomous technology [19][31] - Tesla's ambitions extend beyond cars, aiming to apply its AI technology to various mobile objects, redefining human-machine relationships and potentially transforming multiple industries [20][22]