前言 近期最大的新闻，莫过于川普与我国最高领导人的通话。虽然官方并未公开谈话细节，但从川普的发帖来看，氛围相当积极。 这也意味着双方会在不久之后的APEC峰会上面对面交流，这对于大家而言是一个积极信号。 从长期来看，中美之间的博弈已经成为常态，完全的"脱钩"并不现实，更多时候是"竞合"关系。两国都不希望关系完全失控， 尤其是在经济复苏仍需外部环境稳定的当下。这种理性竞争的状态，反而可能成为一种长期均衡，对市场是好事。大家不必过 度担心极端冲突情景，关注核心变量——经济增长与企业盈利，才是更重要的。 桥水拆解 A股上涨靠的是什么？ 桥水基金最近发布了一份对A股的研究报告，对今年以来的上涨做了详细拆解。结果非常有意思： 2024年至今A股收益37.1%。其中32.6%来自股价上涨，3.5%来自股息分红；利润增长贡献只有1.7%。 今年以来，A股迎来了一波令人振奋的上涨行情，很多投资者感叹久违的赚钱效应终于回来了。 尤其是近期，中美两国最高层通了电话，透露出即将在APEC期间面对面会晤的消息，这让大家的情绪进一步升温。表面上看， 政策面的暖风和国际关系的缓和，似乎为股市提供了坚实的支撑，但这波上涨究竟靠的是什么？能 ...

Group 1 - The atmosphere of the offline meeting in Shanghai was notably positive, largely attributed to Tesla's strong performance, with one-third of attendees owning a Tesla and the rest expressing admiration [2] - The meeting included a review of key decisions made in the first half of the year, such as the strategic buying of the Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor in April, the shift in outlook for the A-share market, and the belief in an improving economic cycle in China [2] - Future predictions and judgments were shared, along with an internal research methodology aimed at identifying the next major companies like Amazon, Tesla, Apple, and Nvidia, referred to as "Lao Xu's Business Cycle Model" [2] Group 2 - Investment and asset allocation are crucial for long-term wealth growth, with insights from two financial planners discussing three major asset transfer trends and the current real estate market [3] - Specific asset planning cases were presented, providing practical advice that resonated with attendees [3] - Successfully managing investment and asset allocation can position families to achieve stable asset growth, with the potential to outperform over 90% of the population [5] Group 3 - The company will take a break from offline meetings in October, with plans to announce the November meeting location once confirmed [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report "Intelligent World 2035" by Huawei outlines a systemic technological revolution driven by five foundational technologies: energy, storage and computing, perception and interaction, communication and networking, and intelligent technology, which will create significant opportunities in the next decade [8][13]. Group 1: Ten Technological Leapfrogs Towards Intelligent World 2035 - The report emphasizes that the upcoming technological revolution is not a result of single-point breakthroughs but a resonance effect from the accumulation of foundational technologies over decades [13]. - The future will see a shift from linear technological progress to simultaneous breakthroughs across multiple domains, creating a feedback loop that accelerates change [13][14]. - The concept of "superintelligent agents" is still maturing, requiring innovations beyond current models like Transformer to achieve true reasoning capabilities [16][17]. Group 2: Computing Power - Huawei predicts that global computing power demand will increase by 100,000 times by 2035 compared to 2025, highlighting computing power as a critical resource [19][22]. - The report introduces the concept of a "computing power cost singularity," where AI applications create value exceeding ten times the cost of computing power, leading to explosive demand [22]. Group 3: Storage - By 2035, storage demand is expected to grow by 500 times compared to 2025, with AI data comprising over 70% of this demand, indicating a significant growth opportunity in the storage industry [24]. Group 4: Intelligent Agent Internet - The report forecasts a future where 9 billion humans are interconnected with 900 billion intelligent agents, suggesting that the opportunities in the intelligent agent internet era will surpass those of the PC and mobile internet combined [28]. Group 5: Communication and Satellite Internet - Future communication networks will evolve into a "ground + satellite" collaborative network, making satellite internet and low-orbit satellite communication key infrastructure opportunities [30]. Group 6: Energy - The report anticipates that by 2035, wind and solar energy will surpass fossil fuels in generation capacity, with breakthroughs in hydrogen, controlled nuclear fusion, and space-based solar energy expected [30]. Group 7: Robotics, Batteries, and Perception Technology - The report identifies the need for advancements in robotics, including lighter, more cost-effective designs, and enhanced perception capabilities to enable AI to interact with the physical world [33][35]. - Innovations in energy density and efficiency of batteries are crucial for the practical application of AI in real-world scenarios [35][36]. Group 8: Opportunities Ahead - The report concludes that the next decade will present a multitude of interconnected opportunities across various industries, driven by advancements in AI and intelligent agents [39][40].

过去一周，全球市场表现分化：A股与港股小幅下跌，美股则延续反弹，其他主要市场涨跌不一。在这样的环境下，我们的全配置组合依然交出了亮眼成 绩，尤其是睿定投全球版与懒人均衡组合，不仅跑赢了A股，还实现了连续多周的上涨。这也再次证明了全球配置的优势—— 不用与单一市场"死磕"，依 然能稳步前行。 | | | 涨跌幅 | | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A股 | 沪深300 | -0.23% | 中债新综合全价 | -0.05% | | 红利 | 中证红利 | -1.40% | 美国20年+国债 | -1.65% | | 港股 | 恒生指数 | -0.39% | 上海金 | 1.48% | | 美国 | 纳指100 | 1.92% | | | | 德国 | 德国DAX | -0.93% | | | | 日本 | 日经225 | 1.62% | 省心债组合 | -0.02% | | 印度 | 印度sensex30 | 0.46% | 懒人—均衡组合 | 0.41% | | 越南 | 胡志明指数 | -2.99% | 睿定投全球版组合 | 0.87% | 一周行情复盘 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that Elon Musk's recent interview reveals a clear technological roadmap and business strategy for his companies, particularly in the AI era, which investors and entrepreneurs should pay attention to [4][26]. Group 2: Tesla Robotics - Musk identifies three critical components for successful robotics: achieving human-like dexterity, enabling robots to understand the physical world, and achieving mass production [5]. - The human hand has 27 degrees of freedom, and replicating this complexity in robotic hands is essential for their functionality [7]. - Tesla's solution involves using actuators in the forearm and tendon-like cables to control the fingers, which has shown significant advancements in recent demonstrations [9]. - Understanding the physical world is crucial for robots, requiring them to make decisions in complex environments, which Tesla aims to achieve through advanced AI chips that significantly enhance performance [11]. - Mass production is key to reducing costs, with a target of producing 1 million robots at a cost of $20,000 to $25,000 each, including $6,000 for AI chips [13]. Group 3: Autonomous Driving - Musk reiterates the commitment to a pure vision approach for autonomous driving, rejecting the integration of lidar, emphasizing the importance of a clear technical path [14]. - The decision-making process in technology investment should focus on following proven leaders rather than emotional reactions [14]. Group 4: Starlink - Starlink aims to disrupt the traditional telecommunications industry, with SpaceX acquiring EchoStar for $17 billion to secure critical frequency bands for satellite-to-mobile connectivity [16]. - The plan includes collaborating with major smartphone manufacturers to adapt chips for these frequencies, with a two-year timeline to become a global operator [16]. - The cost comparison shows that Starlink's satellite internet could potentially replace 5G, with a significantly lower investment required for global coverage [18]. Group 5: Starship - Musk describes the Starship project as one of humanity's most challenging engineering feats, focusing on creating fully reusable rockets [20]. - The development of new heat shield materials is crucial for rapid reusability, with ambitious timelines set for testing and achieving full reusability by 2028 [21][24]. Group 6: Future of AI - Musk predicts the arrival of superintelligent AI within three years, indicating that the AI sector will continue to experience significant growth and opportunities [26]. - The overarching strategy of Musk's ventures involves setting grand goals, disrupting industries, and reinvesting profits into larger objectives, which is a model for potential investors to consider [26].

前言 最近，美国那位"金发老头"川普又拉着一帮科技巨头开会，讨论美国AI发展路径。这次会谈释放出一个非常明确的信号：未来的AI，将 沿着"电力—算力—落地"这条路线加速前进。 这背后，既有能源布局的重大机会，也有对英伟达未来地位的挑战。 电力是AI的"粮食" 为什么？因为算力要用电力。AI时代的算力中心、数据中心，本质上就是巨大的耗电机器。 中国在这一点上其实是有优势的，我们水电、火电、风光电的布局已经很成熟，超高压输电技术全球领先，可以把西部的电送到东部沿海负荷中心。 我个人也会持续关注这个赛道，尤其是美国那几家做小型核反应堆的公司。电力是AI的第一道门槛，没有足够便宜稳定的电，就没有足够便宜的算 力。 算力 从训练到推理的转折 聊完电力，再说算力本身。很多朋友以为AI算力的需求，主要来自模型训练。其实不是。 算力需求分两块：训练（Train）和推理（Inference）。 训练：让AI变聪明，比如训练一个GPT-5、一个世界模型。这一步需要大量、灵活、可编程的GPU，英伟达就是靠这吃饭的。 推理：用AI干活，比如调用GPT回答问题、让机器人执行指令、让自动驾驶跑一段路。推理的计算模式相对固定，不像训练那么 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's board has approved a groundbreaking $1 trillion compensation incentive plan for Elon Musk, marking an unprecedented commitment in business history and a significant bet on the company's future over the next decade [2][5]. Group 1: Tesla's Ultimate Vision - The incentive plan is closely tied to Tesla's ultimate goal of "Sustainable Abundance," which envisions a future where AI and robots significantly enhance productivity and reduce human labor [6][8]. - Achieving this vision requires two core conditions: the widespread adoption of AI and robotics capable of performing various tasks, and the comprehensive use of clean energy to support these technologies [8]. Group 2: Award Terms and Conditions - The plan includes 423,743,904 shares of Tesla's common stock, representing 12% of the adjusted share count, divided into 12 tranches, each unlocking 35,311,992 shares upon meeting specific market capitalization milestones [7]. - The first milestone requires Tesla's market capitalization to reach $2 trillion, with subsequent milestones increasing by $500 billion, culminating in a target of $8.5 trillion [9]. Group 3: Operational and Profitability Goals - To unlock each tranche, Musk must also meet operational targets, including delivering over 20 million vehicles, achieving 10 million Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscriptions, and delivering 1 million Optimus robots [12]. - The adjusted operating profit must start at $50 billion and rise to over $400 billion [12]. Group 4: Challenges and Historical Context - The plan is not a "free ride" for Musk; it presents significant challenges, including the need to deliver on ambitious production and market goals [13]. - Historical reference shows that Musk successfully completed a similar incentive plan in 2018, which involved increasing Tesla's market cap from $60 billion to $650 billion [15]. Group 5: AI and Management Innovations - The integration of AI and robotics is seen as crucial for overcoming traditional growth limitations faced by large companies, allowing for management of vast numbers of intelligent agents without the typical inefficiencies [18]. - This technological advancement is expected to enable Tesla to continue scaling beyond the $1 trillion market cap threshold [18]. Group 6: Investor Perspective - From an investor's standpoint, the incentive plan represents a low-cost gamble; if successful, the dilution of shares by 12% could lead to substantial gains if Tesla's market cap reaches $8.5 trillion [19]. - Investors can benefit from Musk's efforts without needing to engage directly in the operational challenges [19]. Group 7: Importance of the Optimus Robot - The development and mass production of the Optimus robot are critical to unlocking the incentive plan, with the third generation of the robot expected to be a key milestone for Tesla's future growth [27]. - The successful commercialization of the Optimus robot could open up new markets worth billions, further supporting Tesla's ambitious market cap goals [27].

Group 1 - The A-share market has experienced a rapid rise in recent months, leading to a temporary adjustment, which raises questions about potential risks and market signals [2][4] - Healthy market conditions require rhythmic fluctuations rather than a one-sided surge; excessive rapid increases can lead to more severe declines [6][7] - Historical patterns indicate that every bull market ends with overheating emotions, high valuations, and rapid price increases, suggesting that early and moderate adjustments can prolong market vitality [7][11] Group 2 - The current stage of A-shares shows high turnover rates, indicating overheated short-term sentiment, with the index at a high valuation of approximately 14 times earnings, at the 81st percentile [11][18] - Future market movements could take three forms: a brief adjustment followed by a rise, a deeper decline of around 10%, or a sideways consolidation for one to two months [13][14][15] - The economic fundamentals will be crucial in determining the longevity of the bull market; if economic conditions improve, the bull market may continue, but if they remain weak, valuations will need to adjust [18] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market is beginning to show independent trends, with the Hang Seng Index reaching new highs, diverging from A-shares [19] - Unique advantages of Hong Kong include its recognized international status, strong performance of major companies like Tencent and Alibaba, and a return to reasonable valuations, suggesting a potential for stronger performance compared to A-shares [19] - The focus should be on position management during high-risk periods, with strategies to reduce exposure during volatility and increase positions when valuations are more attractive [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of global asset allocation, highlighting the contrasting performances of A-shares and US stocks, and validating the effectiveness of the company's portfolio strategies [1][3]. Weekly Market Review - A-shares (CSI 300) declined by 1.24%, while the dividend index rose by 0.50% [2]. - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong saw a slight increase of 0.06% [4]. - The NASDAQ 100 in the US increased by 1.48% [4]. - The DAX in Germany fell by 0.96% [4]. - The Nikkei 225 in Japan rose by 3.45%, and the Sensex 30 in India increased by 0.53% [4]. - The Ho Chi Minh Index in Vietnam dropped significantly by 3.43% [4]. - Overall, bond markets experienced a slight decline of 0.08%, but Chinese and US bonds rose, with US bonds increasing by 4.75% [4]. - Gold prices increased by 3.07%, with a cumulative rise of 5%-10% since the company increased its holdings [4]. Portfolio Performance - The "Rui Ding Tou Global Version" portfolio achieved a 1.32% increase, reaching a new net value high despite the decline in A-shares [7]. - This portfolio includes diverse assets such as US stocks, Indian stocks, and gold, which helped mitigate risks during A-share adjustments [7]. - The "Lazy Balanced" portfolio, with a high bond allocation, reported a cumulative return of 13.37% this year, outperforming previous years [8]. - The "Peace of Mind Bond" portfolio, which is defensive in nature, rose by 0.81% last week and has a year-to-date return of 9.32%, also reaching a historical high [13]. - The "Pure Bond" portfolio experienced a minor decline of 0.06%, demonstrating strong defensive capabilities by falling less than the market average [16]. Investment Strategy - The article suggests that the "Peace of Mind Bond" portfolio is suitable for investors seeking stability and lower volatility, serving as a "ballast" to balance equity market fluctuations [18]. - The company plans to continue optimizing its asset allocation strategies to provide stable and sustainable returns [32].

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's recent financial report showed disappointing revenue and profit figures, yet the stock surged by 12.9%, indicating that the market is more focused on future potential rather than past performance [2][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Alibaba's Stock Surge - **Victory in Subsidy War**: Alibaba, along with competitors like Meituan, has been engaged in aggressive subsidy battles. While Meituan's profits plummeted by 98% to only 230 million, Alibaba managed to leverage its dual business model of food delivery and e-commerce to gain market share and increase monthly active users by 25% [5][7][9]. - **International E-commerce Approaching Break-even**: Alibaba's international e-commerce business has reached a point of near profitability, which is crucial for its long-term growth strategy. This move is essential for any major Chinese tech company aiming for a market cap of one trillion USD [10][12]. - **Rapid Growth in Cloud AI Business**: Alibaba Cloud's revenue grew by 26% year-on-year, with AI-related income increasing for eight consecutive quarters, now accounting for 20% of cloud revenue. This indicates a significant shift towards scalable AI solutions [12][14]. - **Development of New AI Chip**: Alibaba's semiconductor division, "Pingtouge," is reportedly developing a new AI chip that could achieve 90% of Nvidia's H20 performance while consuming 15% less energy. This development aims to reduce reliance on foreign chips and could significantly boost market confidence [14][15]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - **Meituan's Decline**: Meituan's lack of a competitive moat in the food delivery sector has led to its profit evaporating due to price wars. Unlike Alibaba, which can recover through its e-commerce segment, Meituan is left vulnerable [17]. - **Nvidia's Stock Decline**: Nvidia's stock fell by 3% following concerns about the potential for self-sufficiency in China's AI chip market. This could threaten Nvidia's market position, especially given that half of the world's AI researchers are based in China [18][21]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - **Importance of Clear Strategy**: Alibaba's recent success is attributed to a clear strategic focus established after the return of its founder. The company is concentrating on becoming a comprehensive consumer platform and enhancing its AI and cloud capabilities [22][24]. - **Market Dynamics**: The capital market prioritizes future potential over past performance. Alibaba's clear strategy and growth prospects led to its stock increase, while Meituan's uncertain future resulted in a stock decline. Nvidia faces pressure due to emerging competition in the chip sector [24].