Revenue and Expenditure Progress - General public budget revenue for the first seven months of 2024 was CNY 13.6 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of -2.6%, significantly below the budget target of 3.3% by 5.9 percentage points[5] - The revenue completion rate for the first seven months was 60.6%, lower than the average of 64.9% from 2017 to 2023, only higher than the same period in 2022[5] - Non-tax revenue grew by 12% in the same period, increasing its share of total revenue from 16.45% to 18%[7] Fiscal Deficit and Funding - The expected shortfall in general public budget revenue by year-end could reach approximately CNY 900 billion, with government fund revenue likely to decline by 10%, corresponding to a shortfall of about CNY 700 billion[20] - The total revenue gap across both accounts is estimated at CNY 1.6 trillion, necessitating accelerated implementation of existing policies and introduction of new measures[20] - As of August, the net financing scale of national bonds reached CNY 3 trillion, accounting for 69.3% of the annual central deficit target, marking the highest progress since 2015[16] Government Financing and Debt Issuance - The issuance of special bonds has been slow, with a progress rate of 65.9% in the first eight months, the second lowest since 2019, but has accelerated since August[16] - The remaining quota for local government bonds is approximately CNY 1.3 trillion, with a total of nearly CNY 2.9 trillion available for financing through national and local bonds combined[20] - The central government has over CNY 8 billion in remaining quota space for national bond issuance, which can be utilized if necessary[20]

Group 1: Market Overview - Domestic infrastructure investment is expected to stabilize, with focus on new infrastructure and coastal/western regions[3] - By the end of 2023, China's railway operating mileage reached 159,000 kilometers, including 45,000 kilometers of high-speed rail[3] - The total length of highways in China is 5,436,800 kilometers, with 183,600 kilometers being expressways[3] Group 2: Industry Trends - Traditional infrastructure investment returns have significantly declined, indicating a shift towards structural investment opportunities[3] - High-quality development is crucial for sustainable operations in the construction industry, with a shift from focusing solely on profit to prioritizing cash flow and balance sheet sustainability[3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - State-owned enterprises in the construction sector, such as China Railway and China State Construction, are recommended due to their stronger risk resistance[4] - Private companies with core competitiveness and relatively low debt ratios, like Honglu Steel Structure and Jianghe Group, are expected to find new growth opportunities post-industry consolidation[4] Group 4: Risks - Risks include lower-than-expected growth support, policy effectiveness, and economic recovery[4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The social services sector has seen a market performance decline of 37% over the past 12 months, compared to a 15% decline in the CSI 300 index[1] - The hotel occupancy rate (OCC) is at 57.61%, down 0.94 percentage points week-on-week, and down 5.93 percentage points compared to 2019[18] - The average daily rate (ADR) for hotels is 194.45 CNY, reflecting a 1.61% decrease week-on-week and a 5.64% decrease compared to 2019[18] Group 2: Sector Insights - In the education sector, the K12 market is experiencing high growth, with leading companies expected to benefit from regulatory changes and increased demand for quality education services[23] - The public service examination training sector is set to see growth as the 2025 examination cycle approaches, with companies like Zhonggong Education focusing on employment services for the 18-45 age group[26] - The beauty and medical aesthetics sectors are witnessing a shift towards domestic brands, with new product launches expected to drive growth, particularly in the lead-up to the Double 11 shopping festival[2] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong growth potential in the tourism sector, particularly those with new projects or improved transportation links, such as Jiuhua Tourism and Huangshan Tourism[1] - In the hotel sector, attention should be given to leading brands that are expected to perform well in the third quarter, alongside new brand incubation and product iteration[1] - The retail sector is showing signs of recovery, with many companies' valuations at low levels, suggesting potential investment opportunities in undervalued stocks[2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's short-term performance is under pressure due to slowing growth in downstream industries and rising costs [1] - The company reported a revenue of 1.685 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.89%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 68 million yuan, down 48.87% year-on-year [3] - The company is focusing on expanding its liquid packaging line, with steady growth in beverage packaging production lines [3] - Despite short-term challenges in the dairy industry, there are opportunities for import substitution due to imbalanced supply and demand [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.258 billion yuan, with net profits of 114 million yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 24.30 [4] - Revenue growth rates are projected at 3.57% for 2024, 23.74% for 2025, and 26.20% for 2026 [5] - The company's gross profit margin for Q2 was 28.09%, a decrease of 1.41 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company's inventory as of 2023 was 3.104 billion yuan, an increase of 25.52% year-on-year, indicating future revenue certainty [3] Market Position and Strategy - The company is capitalizing on the increasing demand for sugar-free beverages, with the proportion of sugar-free tea drinks rising from 14% to 27% in 2023 [3] - The company is enhancing its offerings in sterile filling equipment and solid food packaging equipment to meet market demands [3] - The dairy consumption in China is currently below the recommended levels, indicating potential growth opportunities in the future [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - In the first eight months of 2024, furniture exports reached USD 44.89 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.9%. This growth is attributed to the low base effect and the gradual end of inventory destocking overseas, suggesting a potential replenishment cycle ahead [4][28]. - Various local subsidies are being implemented to boost home furnishing demand, with policies in cities like Tianjin and Jiangsu supporting home renovation and smart home consumption. These subsidies are expected to enhance consumer spending in the home furnishing sector [4][37]. - The light industry sector has seen a decline in the stock index, with the Sub-index for light industry manufacturing dropping by 2.07% in the week of September 9-13, 2024, while still outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.16 percentage points [4][9]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shenwan Light Industry Index closed at 1532.24 points with a weekly decline of 2.07%, ranking 14th among 31 Shenwan primary industries. The light industry manufacturing sub-sectors, including entertainment products, packaging, paper, and home goods, all experienced declines [4][9]. Key Industry Data Tracking - In August 2024, the retail sales of furniture showed a year-on-year decline of 3.7%, indicating a downward trend compared to previous months. However, the overall retail sales of consumer goods in the first eight months of 2024 reached CNY 31.25 trillion, growing by 3.4% year-on-year [13][22]. Key Company Announcements and Industry News - Companies like Oppein Home (603833.SH) and Kuka Home (603816.SH) are recommended for their strong supply chain efficiency and management capabilities. Other notable companies include Mousse (001323.SZ) and Juran Home (000785.SZ), which are recognized for their brand strength and market positioning [5][35]. - Recent policies in cities like Xi'an aim to promote the replacement of old home appliances and furnishings, providing consumers with subsidies of up to 20% of the purchase price, capped at CNY 2000 per item [37].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Increase Holdings" for key companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture [4]. Core Viewpoints - The pig farming industry is experiencing high price fluctuations, with a slow recovery in production capacity. The average price of live pigs in August was 20.35 CNY/kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 9.10% and a year-on-year increase of 19.57% [3][8]. - The white feather broiler farming sector is seeing price fluctuations in chick prices, with the average price of broiler chicks in August at 3.14 CNY/chick, up 24.14% from July [3][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The pig price is experiencing high volatility, with supply increasing slowly and demand remaining weak. The average weight of pigs sold in August was 126.13 kg, a month-on-month increase of 0.48% [3][8]. - The white feather broiler chick price is fluctuating, with the average price for broiler chicks at 3.17 CNY/chick in August, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 24.14% [3][12]. 2. August Operational Situation - In August, the total number of pigs sold by 15 listed companies was 12.55 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.05% [3][18]. - The average price of broiler chickens was 3.72 CNY/kg in August, with a month-on-month increase of 1.56% [3][12]. 3. Investment Recommendations - For pig farming, it is expected that prices will remain high in September, with a slow recovery in production capacity. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture [3][4]. - For white feather chicken farming, the demand for broiler chickens remains supported, and prices are expected to stabilize in the short term. Recommended stocks include Yisheng Livestock and Shennong Development [3][4].

电力设备 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.09.14 新能源车销量激增，风电市场活跃 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -29% -23% -17% -10% -4% 2% 电力设备 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 张一弛 SAC 证书编号：S0160522110002 zhangyc02@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《二季度光伏业绩见底出清加速，锂 电小幅改善》 2024-09-07 2. 《 大 储 电 网 基 本 面 继 续 亮 眼 》 2024-08-27 3. 《主产业链出清，各板块均在复苏》 2024-08-23 核心观点 周观点 证券研究报告 ❖ 光伏：本周光伏市场 POE 树脂价格显著下降，硅料微涨后稳定，组件价格小 幅下滑。广东本数光能科技公司全钙钛矿叠层电池效率创新高，华晟新能源科 技股份有限公司交付 1.8GW 异质结组件，中国电力建设股份有限公司启动 1.5GW N 型异质结组件招标，促进行业技术进步和市场扩展。 ❖ 锂电：8 月新能源乘用车的批发销量实现了显著增长，达到了 105.2 万辆。与 去年同期相比增长了 31.70%，而与 7 月相比，环比增长也达到 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the home furnishing industry, suggesting potential investment opportunities due to government subsidies aimed at boosting consumer demand [3][7]. Core Insights - The recent subsidy policies in Tianjin and Jiangsu are expected to stimulate home furnishing demand, with Tianjin offering a 15% subsidy on home renovation products, capped at 2000 RMB per item, and Jiangsu providing similar support for green building materials [3]. - The convertible bond market showed a decline this week, with the China Convertible Bond Index dropping by 1.74%, while specific bonds like Mona Convertible Bond and Future Convertible Bond saw slight increases [3][4]. - Recommendations include focusing on convertible bonds related to customized home furnishings and sanitary products, such as Ou 22 Convertible Bond and Songlin Convertible Bond [3]. Summary by Sections Subsidy Policies - Tianjin's new plan supports home renovation and smart home consumption with a 15% subsidy, while Jiangsu offers a similar 15% subsidy for green building materials, with a limit of 3000 RMB per person [3]. Convertible Bond Market Performance - The convertible bond indices experienced declines, with the China Convertible Bond Index down 1.74% and specific bonds like Mona and Future showing positive performance [3][4]. Company Actions - Dongfeng Group plans to repurchase shares worth between 50 million and 100 million RMB, while Songlin Technology is reallocating funds from a beauty and health project to a new production base in Vietnam [4].

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company plans to spin off its subsidiary, Goertek Micro, for a Hong Kong IPO, with an initial issuance size of up to 20% of the total shares post-issuance (before over-allotment) [3] - Goertek Micro specializes in MEMS devices and microsystem modules, with a high concentration of customers, particularly in the Apple supply chain [3] - The subsidiary's revenue has been stable, with 2021-2023 revenues of 3.348 billion, 3.125 billion, and 3.015 billion yuan, respectively, and net profits of 329 million, 326 million, and 226 million yuan [3] - The spin-off is expected to enhance Goertek Micro's development in MEMS and SIP microsystem modules, benefiting both the subsidiary and the parent company [4] - The company forecasts 2024-2026 net profits of 2.389 billion, 3.398 billion, and 4.231 billion yuan, with EPS of 0.70, 0.99, and 1.24 yuan, respectively [4] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue for 2022A, 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected at 104.894 billion, 98.574 billion, 100.121 billion, 104.980 billion, and 112.467 billion yuan, respectively [5] - Net profit growth rates for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are expected to be 119.56%, 42.23%, and 24.53%, respectively [5] - EPS for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected at 0.70, 0.99, and 1.24 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 26.51x, 18.64x, and 14.96x [5] - ROE is expected to improve from 5.93% in 2022A to 11.71% in 2026E [5] Industry and Market Opportunities - The MEMS and SIP microsystem module market is poised for growth, driven by AI-enabled smart hardware and AR/VR products [4] - Goertek Micro holds a significant global market share in MEMS acoustic sensors and is well-positioned to capitalize on industry opportunities [4] - The spin-off will allow Goertek Micro to access capital market resources, improve corporate governance, and enhance international market visibility [4] Financial Metrics and Ratios - Gross margins for 2022A, 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 11.1%, 8.9%, 11.3%, 12.1%, and 12.6%, respectively [6] - Operating profit margins for the same periods are 1.5%, 0.9%, 2.4%, 3.2%, and 3.8% [6] - Net profit margins are projected to increase from 1.7% in 2022A to 3.5% in 2026E [6] - ROIC is expected to rise from 7.2% in 2022A to 9.0% in 2026E [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's share repurchase plan demonstrates confidence in future development, with 786,200 shares repurchased (0.16% of total shares) at an average price of 6.33 yuan per share [2] - The company's liquid food packaging equipment has high market coverage, helping to smooth cyclical impacts [3] - Beverage & dairy industry: Demand for aseptic filling lines is growing due to health-conscious trends, with sugar-free tea drinks increasing from 14% to 27% market share [3] - Beer industry: The company has strong relationships with major players like Snow Beer, Budweiser, and Tsingtao Beer, positioning it well for equipment upgrades [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 3.258 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.088 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 26.2% [3] - Net profit is projected to increase from 114 million yuan in 2024 to 391 million yuan in 2026 [3] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.23 yuan in 2024 to 0.80 yuan in 2026 [3] - PE ratio is expected to decline from 24.3x in 2024 to 7.1x in 2026 [3] Valuation Metrics - Current price-to-book ratio is 1.06x, expected to decrease to 0.91x by 2026 [3] - EV/EBITDA is projected to decline from 7.9x in 2024 to 4.0x in 2026 [4] - ROE is forecasted to improve from 4.4% in 2024 to 12.8% in 2026 [4] Operational Efficiency - Inventory turnover days are expected to decrease from 482 in 2024 to 414 in 2026 [4] - Accounts receivable turnover days are projected to improve from 68 in 2024 to 49 in 2026 [4] - Total asset turnover days are forecasted to decrease from 839 in 2024 to 648 in 2026 [4] Industry Position - The company has strong market positioning in liquid food packaging equipment, particularly in the beverage, dairy, and beer industries [3] - It has established relationships with major industry players, providing a competitive advantage in equipment upgrades and replacements [3]