Investment Rating - The semiconductor industry is rated as "Overweight" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand dynamics in the semiconductor industry are improving, with expectations for storage prices to rise due to production cuts by major manufacturers and strong AI-driven demand for enterprise-level storage [39][18] - Domestic storage companies are expected to gain market share through technological innovations and localization strategies, significantly increasing their market presence compared to 2023 [39] - The recent launch of new features by ByteDance indicates the commercialization of multimodal perception technology, which is anticipated to boost demand for upstream computing chips and AI terminal SoC chips [39] Industry Performance Review - As of May 29, 2025, the semiconductor industry index has decreased by 1.59% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.35 percentage points [5][12] - Year-to-date, the semiconductor industry index has remained flat, while outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.93 percentage points [5][12] - Among sub-sectors, the performance varied, with discrete devices up by 1.02% and digital chip design down by 3.16% [14][15] Industry News and Company Developments - Major NAND manufacturers, including Samsung and Micron, have initiated production cuts of 10%-15%, leading to expectations of a rebound in memory prices in Q2 [18] - Google announced a partnership with XREAL to launch a new AR glasses platform, with support from domestic suppliers [19] - Huawei has released two new HarmonyOS computers, indicating ongoing innovation in the tech space [20] - The Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission and other departments have outlined goals for IPv6 deployment by 2025, aiming for significant user and connection growth [21] - The AI demand is expected to drive significant growth in enterprise SSDs, with projections for NAND Flash prices to rise in Q3 2025 [24] Semiconductor Industry Data Updates - Global smartphone shipments in Q1 2025 reached 305 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.53% [31] - In April 2025, domestic new energy vehicle sales reached 1.226 million units, a year-on-year increase of 44.2% [33] - Global semiconductor sales in March 2025 amounted to $55.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.8% [36] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on storage chip design, storage modules, and DDR5 segments as potential beneficiaries of the improving market conditions [39] - Recommended stocks include: - Semiconductor Equipment: North China HuaChuang, Zhongwei Company, Huahai Qingke, Changchuan Technology, Shengmei Shanghai [40] - Semiconductor Materials: Dinglong Co., Jiangfeng Electronics, Yake Technology [40] - IC Design: Zhaoyi Innovation, Lanke Technology, Baiwei Storage, Lexin Technology, Shengbang Co., Sirui Technology, Weier Co., Sirui Technology, Haiguang Information [40]

证券研究报告 2025 年 5 月 30 日 星期五 后市展望： 周四，市场全天震荡反弹，创业板指领涨。早盘三大指数集体高开，随后市场继续 走强，午后大盘保持窄幅震荡。截至收盘，三大指数全线收红，创业板指领涨。盘面上， 无人车辆、智能驾驶概念股集体爆发，数字货币概念股震荡走强，创新药概念股再度活跃。 下跌方面，黄金股展开调整。总体上个股涨多跌少，计算机、医药生物、电子、国防军工 和通信等行业表现靠前；美容护理、银行、食品饮料、石油石化和家用电器等行业表现靠 后。概念指数方面，数字货币、电子身份证、跨境支付(CIPS)、移动支付和 EDR 概念等板 块表现靠前；草甘膦、黄金概念、供销社、代糖概念和社区团购等板块表现靠后。 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 计算机 | 3.62% | 美容护理 | -0.59% | 数字货币 | 6.50% | 草甘膦 | -1.65% | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market index by more than 15% in the next six months [3][7]. Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, but it continues to advance its dual-sea strategy, focusing on expanding its offshore wind power market and overseas markets [3][5]. - The company reported a revenue of 48.38 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.52%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 37.77% to 1.82 billion yuan [6]. - The company has a growing order backlog, with total orders amounting to 49.17 billion yuan by the end of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.97% [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 48.38 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.82 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 13.83%, down 6.26 percentage points year-on-year [6][8]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 7.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.01%, and a net profit of 0.45 billion yuan, down 17.47% year-on-year [6][8]. Market Strategy - The company is actively expanding its production capacity and has established a European sales center in Germany to tap into international market opportunities [6][7]. - The company is also focusing on technological innovation, developing new products such as floating offshore wind turbine platforms and high-capacity offshore wind equipment [6][7]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.37 yuan, 0.47 yuan, and 0.59 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of approximately 17, 13, and 11 [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock performance in the near term [1][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in cash flow, with a positive operating cash flow of 716 million yuan in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 129.72% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1010.01% [5]. - The sales volume of N-type ABC components has surged, with a total sales volume of 6.33 GW in 2024, representing a nearly 12-fold increase compared to 2023, and Q1 2025 sales volume reached 4.54 GW, up over 500% year-on-year [5]. - The company is focusing on continuous R&D and innovation, enhancing its core competitiveness, with the conversion efficiency of ABC batteries reaching over 27.3% in 2024 and expected to exceed 25% with new technologies [5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.155 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 58.94%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -5.319 billion yuan, a decline of 802.92% [5][6]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.136 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.53%, and a net profit of -300 million yuan, a decline of 229.35% [5][6]. Sales and Market Position - The N-type ABC components have gained market acceptance, with over 50 countries and regions involved in sales, and the company has secured over 5 GW in new sales orders in Q1 2025 [5]. - The company’s innovative business model and technological advancements have contributed to its strong sales growth despite a general slowdown in industry demand [5]. Future Projections - The report forecasts EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 0.17 yuan, 0.46 yuan, and 0.92 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of approximately 65 times, 24 times, and 12 times [5][6].

Group 1: Global Military Expenditure Trends - Global military expenditure reached a record high of $27,181.84 billion in 2024, marking an 11.06% increase from 2023 and the fastest growth since 1988 [13][14] - Military spending in Europe increased by 19.26% in 2024, the largest increase since the Cold War, primarily driven by the Russia-Ukraine conflict [14][17] - The top 15 countries accounted for 81.3% of global military spending in 2024, with the United States leading at 37%, followed by China at 12% and Russia at 5.5% [17][19] Group 2: Chinese Military Trade Opportunities - China's share of global military exports was 5.9% from 2020 to 2024, slightly lower than the previous five-year period, with 77% of exports going to Asia and Oceania [23] - In 2024, China's military trade volume was $1.131 billion TIV, a 62.07% decrease year-on-year, with its global share dropping to 3.91% [23] - The increase in global military spending is expected to boost demand for Chinese military equipment in regions such as the Middle East, Asia, and Africa [23] Group 3: Company Focus - Chuangyuan Xinke - Chuangyuan Xinke specializes in the development of RF communication testing instruments, with a net profit of $0.12 billion in 2024, down 62.90% year-on-year, but rebounding to $0.06 billion in Q1 2025, up 244.81% [3][46] - The company achieved a revenue of $2.33 billion in 2024, a decrease of 13.93%, but saw a 27.47% increase in Q1 2025 [46][48] - R&D expenses were $1.04 billion in 2024, with a high R&D expense ratio of 46.75%, indicating a strong focus on innovation [48] Group 4: Company Focus - Xingchen Technology - Xingchen Technology focuses on the development and production of servo drives and automation products, with a net profit of $0.16 billion in 2024, up 26.24% year-on-year [3][57] - The company reported a revenue of $1.47 billion in 2024, an increase of 8.95%, and a 31.71% increase in Q1 2025 [57][60] - In 2024, the company had a gross margin of 41.94%, reflecting its operational efficiency [60]

半导体行业 | 事 件 点 评 半导体行业 超配 半导体行业事件点评 （维持） 原厂推动减产+AI 需求刺激，存储价格有望上涨 刘梦麟（SAC 执业证书编号：S0340521070002） | | --- | | 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱：liumenglin@dgzq.com.cn | | 2025 年 5 月 29 日 | | 陈伟光（SAC 执业证书编号：S0340520060001） | | 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱：chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn | | 行 事件： 业 | | 事件一：据财联社《科创板日报》5月20日援引《台湾工商时报》报道，五大NAND原厂同步减产，供 研 | | 给面收缩，助攻内存市场行情，根据调查，全球市占前五大NAND Flash制造商，包括三星、SK海力士、 究 | | 美光、铠侠与威腾，皆在2025年上半年启动减产计划，幅度在10%～15%，以调节供过于求的市场结构。 | | 预计第二季存储器价格，出现优于预期的反弹走势。 | | 事件二：据财联社26日援引集邦咨询调查，以北美大厂为主的云端服务业者(CSP)持续加强AI投资 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced narrow fluctuations with slight declines in the three major indices, closing at 3339.93 for the Shanghai Composite Index, down 0.02%, 10003.27 for the Shenzhen Component Index, down 0.26%, and 1985.38 for the ChiNext Index, down 0.31% [1][3]. Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included textiles and apparel with a gain of 1.17%, environmental protection at 0.89%, coal at 0.74%, transportation at 0.71%, and communication at 0.62% [2]. - Conversely, the worst-performing sectors were basic chemicals down 0.79%, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery down 0.78%, defense and military down 0.72%, automotive down 0.72%, and real estate down 0.68% [2]. Concept Index Performance - The leading concept indices were medical waste treatment up 2.66%, combustible ice up 2.50%, dairy up 2.02%, controlled nuclear fusion up 1.88%, and hair medical up 1.41% [3]. - The lagging concept indices included epoxy propylene down 1.90%, genetically modified down 1.75%, photoresist down 1.60%, soybeans down 1.56%, and Chengfei concept down 1.55% [3]. Economic Indicators - From January to April, state-owned enterprises reported total operating income of 262,755.0 billion yuan, remaining flat year-on-year, while total profits decreased by 1.7% to 13,491.4 billion yuan [4]. - The National Bureau of Statistics is developing policies to foster a nationwide integrated data market, aiming to accelerate data market construction [4]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market sentiment has shown signs of retreat, with the A-share market expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern around the 3400-point mark, indicating potential pressure [5]. - Despite minor adjustments, the market is still considered to be in a healthy operational state, with expectations for a recovery pattern in the future [5]. - Recommended sectors for attention include finance, non-ferrous metals, consumer goods, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market index by more than 15% over the next six months [8]. Core Insights - The company has turned its performance around in Q1 2025, achieving profitability after a loss in previous periods. The Q1 2025 net profit reached 106 million yuan, a significant improvement of 136.72% quarter-on-quarter [5]. - The company faced challenges in 2024, with a revenue decline of 13.20% year-on-year, primarily due to industry supply-demand imbalances and falling prices in the photovoltaic glass market [5]. - The company is increasing its R&D investment, which reached 605 million yuan in 2024, representing 3.24% of revenue, up by 0.47 percentage points year-on-year. This investment aims to enhance product competitiveness and manufacturing efficiency [5]. - The company has a strong market position, with a production capacity of 19,400 tons per day and a market share exceeding 50% in the photovoltaic glass industry [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 18.683 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.007 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 63.52% [5][7]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.079 billion yuan, down 28.76% year-on-year but up 0.01% quarter-on-quarter [5]. R&D and Innovation - The company is focusing on R&D to optimize product formulations and production technologies, with a goal of producing lighter and more efficient photovoltaic glass [5]. Market Position and Cash Flow - The company reported a stable operating cash flow of 5.913 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 200.59%, and has maintained positive cash flow for seven consecutive quarters [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the drone industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [2][5]. Core Insights - The number of registered drone users and flight hours is increasing, with a focus on low-altitude economic development in various regions [2][4]. - As of the end of 2024, there are 19979 units with drone operation qualifications, and the total number of registered drone users is 1.619 million, an increase of 804,000 from the previous year, with personal users accounting for 1.521 million [4]. - The total number of registered drones reached 2.17 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 98.5% [4]. - A total of 273,300 drone operator licenses have been issued, with 247,300 being valid [4]. - In 2024, the cumulative flight hours for drones reached 26.667 million hours, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.4% [4]. - Multiple regions are focusing on the development of low-altitude economies, with initiatives in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Sichuan aimed at enhancing infrastructure and support for drone technology [4]. Market Potential - The low-altitude economy is projected to grow significantly, with the market size exceeding 500 billion yuan in 2023, expected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025, and potentially surpassing 2 trillion yuan by 2030, with a forecast of 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035 [4]. Investment Strategy - Communication infrastructure is deemed essential for the development of low-altitude economies, particularly in supporting drone communication needs and ground monitoring requirements [4]. - Relevant investment targets include companies like Huace Navigation (300627.SZ) [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the semiconductor industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The launch of the real-time video call feature by ByteDance's Doubao AI is expected to drive demand for upstream computing power and accelerate the penetration of AI glasses [2][5]. - The integration of video call and internet search capabilities in Doubao represents a significant advancement in multi-modal interaction technology, enhancing user experience through real-time Q&A based on visual and language inputs [5]. - The demand for AI computing power is projected to grow rapidly due to the increasing complexity and data scale of AI models, particularly with video AI models requiring significantly more computational resources compared to text and voice models [5]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - Recently, ByteDance's Doubao AI launched a real-time video call feature that allows users to interact with the AI based on real-world scenes, enhancing the user experience with real-time information retrieval from the internet [3][5]. Technology Development - The video call model signifies a shift towards commercializing multi-modal perception technology, particularly in the visual interaction domain, which is expected to disrupt traditional content creation processes [5]. Market Implications - The introduction of the video model is anticipated to accelerate the adoption of AI glasses and other smart terminals, with projections indicating that by 2035, AI+AR smart glasses will replace traditional smart glasses, achieving a penetration rate of 70% and global sales reaching 1.4 billion units [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Haiguang Information (688041), Cambrian (688256), Hengxuan Technology (688608), Lexin Technology (688018), and Rockchip (603893) as potential beneficiaries of the increased demand for AI chips and SoC chips due to the launch of Doubao's video call model [5].