证券研究报告·固定收益·固收深度报告 固收深度报告 20250701 2025 年 07 月 01 日 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐津晶 执业证书：S0600523110001 xujj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《债券"科技板"见微知著：科创债 新政策下的金融机构发行观察》 债券"科技板"他山之石：我国与海外科创 债的机构持仓结构及策略有何异同？ 2025-06-09 《债券"科技板"见微知著：从案例 盘点看何种城投主体正在发行科创 债？》 2025-05-20 《债券"科技板"他山之石：从海外 经验看我国科创债市场建设（市场现 状篇）》 2025-05-14 《债券"科技板"他山之石：从海外 经验看我国科创债市场建设（发展历 程篇）》 2025-05-13 《债券"科技板"启航：一文读懂科 创类债券的前世今生》 2025-04-16 东吴证券研究所 1 / 21 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 美国科创债持仓结构：1）从科创债的机 ...

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20250701 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 庞格致 执业证书：S0600524090003 panggz@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 凌志杰 执业证书：S0600525040007 lingzhj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 新价量相关性因子绩效月报 20250630 2025 年 07 月 01 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 《 新 价 量 相 关 性 因 子 绩 效 月 报 20250530》 2025-06-06 《"技术分析拥抱选股因子"系列研究 （十四）：RPV 聪明版——聪明换手率 是更好的配料》 2023-09-27 东吴证券研究所 1 / 7 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 新价量相关性 RPV 因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）：2014 年 1 月至 2025 年 6 月，新价量相关性 RPV 因子在全体 A 股（剔除北交所股票）中， 10 分组多空对冲的年化收益为 14.57%， ...

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20250701 "日与夜的殊途同归"新动量因子绩效月报 20250630 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 执业证书：S0600524090003 panggz@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《"日与夜的殊途同归"新动量因子绩 效月报 20250530》 2025-06-04 《成交量对动量因子的修正：日与夜 之殊途同归》 2022-08-17 东吴证券研究所 1 / 6 2025 年 07 月 01 日 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 庞格致 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ "日与夜的殊途同归"新动量因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）：2014 年 2 月至 2025 年 6 月，"日与夜的殊途同归"新动量因子在全体 A 股（剔 除北交所股票）中，10 分组多空对冲的年化收益率为 18.15%，年化波 动率为 8.79%，信息比率为 2.07，月度胜率为 77.37%，月度最大回撤率 为 9.07%。 ◼ 6 月份"日与 ...

证券分析师 高子剑 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20250701 "重拾自信2.0"RCP因子绩效月报20250630 2025 年 07 月 01 日 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 庞格致 执业证书：S0600524090003 panggz@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《"重拾自信 2.0"RCP 因子绩效月报 20250530》 2025-06-04 《重拾自信选股因子 2.0——从过度 自信到重拾自信》 2022-09-15 东吴证券研究所 1 / 6 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ "重拾自信 2.0"RCP 因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）：2014 年 2 月至 2025 年 5 月，"重拾自信 2.0"RCP 因子在全体 A 股（剔除北交所股票） 中，10 分组多空对冲的年化收益为 18.45%，年化波动为 7.69%，信息 比率为 2.40，月度胜率为 78.10%，月度最大回撤为 5.89%。 ◼ 6 月份"重拾 ...

金工定期报告 20250701 估值异常因子绩效月报 20250630 2025 年 07 月 01 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 庞格致 执业证书：S0600524090003 panggz@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《估值异常因子绩效月报 20250530》 2025-06-06 《从布林带到估值异常因子》 2022-06-17 东吴证券研究所 1 / 7 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 估值偏离 EPD 因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）：2010 年 2 月至 2025 年 6 月，估值偏离 EPD 因子在全体 A 股（剔除北交所股票）中，5 分组多 空对冲的年化收益为 17.61%，年化波动为 9.98%，信息比率为 1.76，月 度胜率为 70.81%，月度最大回撤为 8.93%。 ◼ 缓慢偏离 EPDS 因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）：2010 年 2 月至 2025 年 6 月，缓慢 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 16.3 to 17.0 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.6% to 17.4% [5] - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit in the second quarter of 2025, with estimates ranging from 8.3 to 9.0 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.5% to 22.0% [5] - The strong performance in the Yiwu import and export market, with a total import and export value of 327.13 billion yuan from January to May 2025, shows a year-on-year growth of 23.7% [5] - The company's payment platform, Yi Payment, has seen a substantial increase in cross-border collection amounts, exceeding 2.5 billion USD, which is a year-on-year growth of over 47% [5] - The global digital trade center's market segment has exceeded the company's expectations in terms of招商 (招商 means "investment attraction"), with the first batch of 389 fashion jewelry industry shops fully completed [5] - The company maintains a strong strategic position as a non-US export hub, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 42.3 billion, 57.1 billion, and 68.3 billion yuan respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 38%, 35%, and 19% [5] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 11.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 48.3% [1] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated to be 0.77 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26.80 based on the latest diluted figures [1] - The company's total assets are expected to reach 43.34 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 48.56% [6]

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20250701 预期高股息组合跟踪-20250630 2025 年 07 月 01 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 红利择时框架 2025 年 7 月观点：不再看多红利。 ◼ 2025 年 7 月组合最新持仓明细： | 序号 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 申万一级行业 | 建仓日期 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 601668.SH | 中国建筑 | 建筑装饰 | 2025/7/1 | 3.33% | | 2 | 603833.SH | 欧派家居 | 轻工制造 | 2025/7/1 | 3.33% | | 3 | 601838.SH | 成都银行 | 银行 | 2025/7/1 | 3.33% | | 4 | 000651.SZ | 格力电器 | 家用电器 | 2025/7/1 | 3.33% | | 5 | 601328.SH | 交通银行 | 银行 | 2025/7/1 | 3.33% | | 6 | 000157.SZ | 中联重科 | ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the influx of funds into Hong Kong since May has not significantly boosted the stock market, as these funds have primarily flowed into deposits, bond trading, and other areas rather than equities, leading to a negative sentiment shift [1][2] - Investors who previously sold stocks are now considering re-entering the market, believing that a significant downturn in Hong Kong stocks is unlikely, which could create new incremental capital [2][3] - The report suggests that returning investors are likely to favor undervalued stocks rather than high-flying thematic stocks, focusing on those with lower price-to-earnings ratios [2] Group 2 - The report lists a selection of recommended stocks, including Tencent Holdings (market cap: 470.47 billion, 2025 EPS: 22.9), Xiaomi Group (market cap: 152.97 billion, 2025 EPS: 1.5), and others across various sectors [3][8] - Tencent Holdings is highlighted for its strong competitive position in gaming and advertising, with expected EPS growth driven by AI integration and a robust ecosystem [11][12] - Xiaomi Group is noted for its innovative automotive segment and strong performance in the smartphone market, with a focus on high-margin products and AI applications [19][20] - Sunny Optical Technology is recognized for its growth in the automotive sector and advancements in optical technology for smartphones, projecting significant revenue increases [27][28] - Anta Sports is expected to benefit from strong brand performance and strategic acquisitions, enhancing its market position [33][34] - Greentown Service is identified as a quality property management company with strong growth potential and high dividend yields [39][40] - Yuehai Investment is focusing on core water supply operations, with expectations for stable cash flow and high dividends following the divestment of non-core assets [44][45] - Jiufang Zhitu Holdings is positioned for growth in the online investment space, leveraging technology to enhance its service offerings [49][50] - Dashih Holdings is expanding its store network significantly, with a focus on delivery services and menu optimization [56][57] - Far East Pharmaceutical is projected to see rapid growth in its nuclear medicine segment, with several innovative products in the pipeline [62][63] - Haitian International is expected to benefit from domestic upgrades and international expansion, with a focus on high-end markets [68][69] Group 3 - Financial data for the recommended stocks shows projected revenues and net profits for 2025, with Tencent Holdings expected to generate 716.55 billion in revenue and 210.26 billion in net profit [75] - Xiaomi Group is projected to achieve 491.83 billion in revenue and 39.60 billion in net profit for 2025 [75] - Sunny Optical Technology is expected to generate 42.68 billion in revenue and 3.32 billion in net profit in 2025 [75] - Anta Sports is projected to achieve 78.17 billion in revenue and 13.23 billion in net profit for 2025 [75] - Greentown Service is expected to generate 19.98 billion in revenue and 898 million in net profit in 2025 [75] - Yuehai Investment is projected to achieve 18.54 billion in revenue and 4.27 billion in net profit for 2025 [75] - Jiufang Zhitu Holdings is expected to generate 3.58 billion in revenue and 1.29 billion in net profit in 2025 [75] - Dashih Holdings is projected to achieve 5.37 billion in revenue and 129 million in net profit for 2025 [75] - Far East Pharmaceutical is expected to generate 12.20 billion in revenue and 2.08 billion in net profit in 2025 [75] - Haitian International is projected to achieve 18.25 billion in revenue and 3.52 billion in net profit for 2025 [75]

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略点评 策略点评 20250701 布局未来产业：重视脑机接口蓝海机遇—— 主题掘金（250701） [Table_Summary] ◼ 脑机接口领域加速发展 脑机接口是指在生物脑与智能机器之间建立信息交流的直接通道，根据技 术路径可以分为输出式和输入式两大类。输出式设备解读脑部信号、控制 外部设备，而输入式主要是将信息编码输入大脑。按脑信号采集方向分类 可分为侵入式、半侵入式及非侵入式。 脑机领域全球市场规模持续增长，国内市场重要性显著提升。根据《脑机 接口技术发展现状及未来展望》，到 2030 年全球脑机接口市场规模将达到 约 70 亿美元，2025-2030 年 CAGR 达到 16.4%，近两年脑机领域投融资也 有明显增加。国内脑机市场规模占比近年来持续提升，2023 年国内脑机市 场规模达到 17.3 亿元，占全球市场比重较 2020 年提升超 5pct。 国内非侵入式路线领先，同时侵入式技术近期实现临床试验突破。技术路 线上，侵入式涉及到芯片轻量化、柔性电极人脑适配等多项难题壁垒整体 较高，而非侵入式赛道比较分散，核心是如何以脑机技术赋能垂直领域实 现商业化。欧美主要采取 ...

基于技术指标的指数仓位调整月报 202507 2025 年 07 月 01 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 模型概要 证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20250701 ◼ 最新宽基指数仓位： 沪深 300：20 指标发出看多信号，3 指标发出减仓信号；最优单指标发出 维持信号；滚动追涨、滚动稳健策略均发出看多信号。 中证 500：18 指标发出看多信号，5 指标发出减仓信号；最优单指标发出 看多信号；滚动追涨、滚动稳健策略均发出维持信号。 中证 1000：17 指标发出看多信号，7 指标发出减仓信号；最优单指标发出 看多信号；滚动追涨、滚动稳健策略均发出维持信号。 2025-06-03 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 凌志杰 执业证书：S0600525040007 lingzhj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《基于技术指标的指数仓位调整月报 202506》 ◼ 风险提示：模型所有统计结果均基于历史数据，未来市场可能发生重大 变化；单因子的收益可能存在较大波 ...