证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 海外周报 20251228 黄金价格再创历史新高，后市怎么看？ 2025 年 12 月 28 日 ◼ 黄金展望：26Q1 市场风险偏好上升或构成短期利空逻辑，但全球央行 购金潮仍将为金价中枢上移提供强有力支撑。本周黄金价格再度创下 4550 美元/盎司的历史新高，而全年累计涨幅也已经达到 72.73%，成为 最具收益的大类资产之一。那么未来黄金走势将如何变化呢？传统框架 下，金价由 ETF 需求主导，而 ETF 需求由美元等货币的加权平均实际 利率预期所驱动。新的投资范式下，金价由央行需求主导，央行需求由 美元信用驱动。由此我们可得出一个金价的简易二元模型，即金价 = f [美元利率，美元信用] = f [g(黄金 ETF 规模)，h(央行购金规模)]。因此 短期来看， 26Q1 美国的宽财政（ ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial sector [1] Core Views - The non-bank financial sector has shown resilience, with insurance and multi-financial sectors outperforming the CSI 300 index recently. The insurance sector is expected to perform well in the upcoming "opening red" period for 2026 [1][9] - The insurance industry has seen improvements in premium growth, with a year-to-date increase of 9.2% in original premiums for life insurance [20][27] - The securities sector is experiencing a decline in trading volume but is supported by new policies allowing foreign investors to engage in bond repurchase transactions [14][19] Summary by Sections Recent Performance of Non-Bank Financial Sub-Sectors - In the last five trading days (December 22-26, 2025), the multi-financial sector rose by 3.20%, and the insurance sector increased by 2.98%, while the overall non-bank financial sector rose by 1.97% [9] - Year-to-date, the insurance sector has increased by 35.78%, outperforming other sectors [10] Non-Bank Financial Sector Insights Securities - Trading volume has decreased, with an average daily trading amount of 21,509 billion CNY in December, a 22.49% increase year-on-year but a 4.02% decrease month-on-month [14] - The margin financing balance reached 25,454 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 35.40% [14] - The average PB valuation for the securities sector is 1.3x for 2025E, with recommendations for leading firms like CITIC Securities and Tonghuashun [19] Insurance - The insurance sector's original premium for the first 11 months of 2025 reached 44,206 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2% [20] - The asset-liability management regulations are being revised to strengthen oversight, which is expected to enhance risk management in the sector [23][27] - The insurance sector's valuation is currently at 0.69-1.02 times 2025E P/EV, indicating a historical low and maintaining an "Overweight" rating [27] Multi-Financial - The trust industry saw its asset scale reach 32.43 trillion CNY by mid-2025, with a year-on-year growth of 20.11% [30] - The futures market recorded a transaction volume of 7.70 billion contracts in November, with a transaction value of 66.61 trillion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.54% [34] Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The recommended ranking for the non-bank financial sector is insurance > securities > other multi-financial services, with key recommendations including China Life, Ping An, and CITIC Securities [45] - The sector is characterized by low average valuations, providing a safety margin and balanced risk-reward profile [45]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·机械设备 机械设备行业跟踪周报 推荐工程机械开门红机遇；持续推荐燃气轮 机&光模块设备 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [1.Table_Summary] 推荐组合：北方华创、三一重工、中微公司、恒立液压、中集集团、拓荆科技、海天 国际、柏楚电子、晶盛机电、杰瑞股份、浙江鼎力、杭叉集团、先导智能、长川科技、 华测检测、安徽合力、精测电子、纽威股份、芯源微、绿的谐波、海天精工、杭可科 技、伊之密、新莱应材、高测股份、纽威数控、华中数控。 2.投资要点： 【工程机械】Q1 开工旺季即将来临，看好板块 Q1 确定性机会 工程机械板块存在明显的春季躁动，一般会在 Q1 出现明显上涨行情。复盘 2021-2025 年工程机械板块走势，板块一般在 Q1 会出现为期两周左右的超额 涨幅。春季躁动的来源主要系政策导向下，工程机械迎来开工+销售旺季。受 预算释放、春节后复工、气候适宜、两会后政策支持、市场促销等多方面因素 影响，Q1 一般为工程机械开工+销售旺季。开工层面来看，从挖机开工小时数 可以看出一般 3-4 月为全年开工高点。销售层面来看，2021-2024 年国内挖机 Q1 销量全年 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that the port thermal coal spot price has decreased by 31 CNY/ton week-on-week, closing at 672 CNY/ton. The average daily inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim region is 1.6071 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons or 1.83% from the previous week. Meanwhile, the average daily outflow has increased by 64,600 tons or 4.22% to 1.5963 million tons. The inventory at the ports has risen to 29.872 million tons, an increase of 220,000 tons or 0.74% from the previous week. The overall inventory trend is upward, with limited demand release leading to a decline in coal prices [1][2][27][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,963.68 points, up 46 points or 1.18% week-on-week. The coal sector index closed at 2,772.29 points, down 29 points or 1.03% with a trading volume of 37.2 billion CNY, a decrease of 5.6 billion CNY or 13% from the previous week [10]. 2. Domestic Coal Prices - As of December 26, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Datong remained stable at 550 CNY/ton, while the price in Inner Mongolia was stable at 430 CNY/ton. The price of 6000 kcal thermal block coal in Yanzhou increased by 130 CNY/ton to 1,110 CNY/ton. The port thermal coal price has decreased by 31 CNY/ton to 672 CNY/ton [16][19]. 3. Inventory and Shipping - The average daily inflow to the Bohai Rim ports has decreased, while the outflow has increased. The average daily outflow is 1.5963 million tons, up 4.22%, and the average daily inflow is 1.6071 million tons, down 1.83%. The total inventory at the ports has increased to 29.872 million tons, up 0.74% [27][32]. 4. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on insurance capital inflows and maintaining positive growth in premium income, with a preference for resource stocks. It recommends specific thermal coal stocks such as Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy due to their low valuations and elastic performance [2][37].

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 金融产品周报 20251228 聚焦主线板块，关注 ETF 组合推荐 2025 年 12 月 28 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 事件 ◼ 基金配置建议： 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 唐遥衎 执业证书：S0600524120016 tangyk@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《25Q3 美国 GDP：过时的数据，过度 的反应——美国 2025 年三季度 GDP 数据点评》 2025-12-24 《2026 年转债策略：从收益增强转向 风险平衡》 2025-12-22 东吴证券研究所 1 / 18 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ A 股市场行情概述：（2025.12.22-2025.12.26） ◼ 权益类 ETF 基金规模变化统计：前三名的权益类 ETF 类型：规模指数 ETF（832.92 亿元），主题指数 ETF（73.08 亿元），行业指数 ETF（16.61 亿元）。前三名的 ETF 产品：中证 A500ETF（115.41 亿元），A500ETF 南 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents a weekly analysis of the large refining and chemical industry, covering data on key domestic and foreign refining projects, the polyester, refining, and chemical sectors, as well as performance and profit forecasts of relevant listed companies [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **Stock Price and Market Performance**: The report tracks the stock price changes of six major private refining and chemical companies in the past week, month, three - month, and one - year periods. For example, from 2025/12/26, Rongsheng Petrochemical had a weekly increase of 12.1%, a monthly increase of 16.4%, a three - month increase of 16.9%, and a one - year increase of 21.6% [8]. - **Profit Forecast**: It provides profit forecasts for these six companies from 2024 to 2027, including归母净利润, PE, and PB. For instance, Hengli Petrochemical's 2024A归母净利润 was 7044 million yuan, and it is expected to reach 10657 million yuan in 2027E [8]. - **Oil Prices and Refining Spreads**: International crude oil prices (Brent and WTI) showed an increase this week. The average price of Brent was 61.7 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 2.7%. The average price of WTI was 57.7 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 2.5%. The spread of domestic refining projects was 2640.2 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1%. The spread of foreign refining projects was 1254.1 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.5% [8]. - **Polyester Sector**: - **Upstream Products**: The average price of PX was 903.0 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 64.4 dollars/ton. The average price of MEG was 3616.4 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 19.3 yuan/ton. The average price of PTA was 4990.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 345.0 yuan/ton [10]. - **Polyester Filament**: The average prices of POY, FDY, and DTY increased, but their profits decreased. For example, the average price of POY was 6385.7 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 92.9 yuan/ton, but the profit per ton decreased by 130.9 yuan. The inventory of FDY decreased by 8.2 days, and the inventory of DTY decreased by 3.0 days [10]. - **Short Fiber and Bottle Chip**: The average price of polyester short fiber was 6404.3 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 137.1 yuan/ton, and the profit per ton decreased by 101.5 yuan. The average price of polyester bottle chip was 5900.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 224.3 yuan/ton, and the profit per ton decreased by 42.7 yuan [10]. - **Downstream Products**: The inventory of weaving enterprises increased by 0.2 days, and the operating rate decreased by 2.2 percentage points [10]. - **Refining Sector**: The prices of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in China and the US decreased this week, while in Europe, the prices of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene showed a mixed trend, and in Singapore, the prices of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene decreased [10]. - **Chemical Sector**: The prices and spreads of various chemical products changed. For example, the price of EVA photovoltaic material decreased by 339 yuan/ton, and the price of LLDPE decreased by 197 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Big Refining Weekly Report - **Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends**: The report may analyze the trends of the big refining index and the spreads of key domestic and foreign refining projects, but specific analysis content is not provided [12]. - **Polyester Sector**: It includes the price, profit, inventory, and operating rate of various products in the polyester industry chain, as well as the relationship between polyester filament and downstream weaving operating rates [12]. - **Refining Sector**: It analyzes the price and spread changes of refined oil products in different regions such as China, the US, Europe, and Singapore [12]. - **Chemical Sector**: It presents the price and spread changes of various chemical products [12].

Group 1: Market Predictions - A-shares are expected to continue an upward trend, with a new volatility center established in 2026[7] - The rotation between growth and value styles will be crucial for trading success in 2026[12] - In the first half of 2026, the technology growth style is anticipated to lead, with a broadening trend in growth stocks[17] Group 2: Sector and Investment Trends - AI-related products, such as AI glasses, may replicate the growth seen in TWS earphones post-2019[25] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" will drive investment in emerging industries, including quantum technology and hydrogen energy[28] - Commodity prices are expected to reach a mid-term peak in the second quarter of 2026[31] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is projected to cut interest rates 1-2 times in the first half of 2026, then halt cuts in the second half[39] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) negative range is expected to continue narrowing, indicating potential economic recovery[42] - Risks include slower-than-expected economic recovery and geopolitical events that could impact market stability[3]

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·电子 电子行业深度报告 AI 基建，光板铜电—光&铜篇 主流算力芯片 Scale up&out 方案全解析 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 产业链相关公司： 光芯片：长光华芯、源杰科技、仕佳光子等 铜缆：华丰科技、兆龙互连、沃尔核材等 ◼ 风险提示：算力互联需求不及预期，客户拓展及份额提升不及预期，产 品研发及量产落地不及预期，行业竞争加剧 -15% -8% -1% 6% 13% 20% 27% 34% 41% 48% 2024/12/27 2025/4/27 2025/8/26 2025/12/25 电子 沪深300 相关研究 《从云端算力国产化到端侧 AI 爆发， 电子行业的戴维斯双击时刻——电子 行业 2026 年投资策略》 2025-12-10 2025 年 12 月 27 日 证券分析师 陈海进 执业证书：S0600525020001 chenhj@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 解承堯 执业证书：S0600125020001 xiechy@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 《Credo 营收超预期&Marvell 收 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry [1] Core Insights - The implementation of the new duty-free policy in Hainan since November 1 has led to a significant increase in duty-free sales, with a year-on-year growth rate of 27.1% in November [4][9] - Following the closure of the island on December 18, the duty-free market in Sanya has seen a surge, with sales exceeding 1 billion yuan for five consecutive days, and a total sales amount of 5.35 billion yuan from December 18 to 22, marking a 50.3% year-on-year increase [4][9] - The average transaction value for duty-free sales in November 2025 reached 7,227 yuan, a 41% increase compared to the same period last year [4][10] - The report suggests monitoring companies that benefit from the duty-free policy, including China Duty Free Group, Hainan Airlines Group, and Wangfujing [4][10] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The retail industry has shown a positive trend with the duty-free sales in Hainan experiencing a notable increase post-policy implementation [4][9] - The average price of high-value items like gold and smartphones has decreased significantly compared to mainland prices, contributing to higher average transaction values [4][10] Market Performance - The retail index increased by 10.00% year-to-date, while the broader market indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 18.26% [11][12] Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for various companies in the retail sector, highlighting their market capitalization and projected earnings [18][19]

绿色债券周度数据跟踪 （20251222-20251226） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 一级市场发行情况： 本周（20251222-20251226）银行间市场及交易所市场共新发行绿色债券 28 只，合计发行规模约 227.61 亿元，较上周增加 16.51 亿元。发行年限 多为 3 年；发行人性质为中央国有企业、央企子公司、地方国有企业、 大型民企；主体评级多为 AAA、AA+级；发行人地域为上海市、内蒙古 自治区、浙江省、湖北省、广东省、贵州省、北京市、重庆市、江西省、 甘肃省、天津市、山西省；发行债券种类为交易商协会 ABN、企业 ABS、 商业银行普通债、一般公司债、超短期融资券、中期票据、定向工具 （PPN）、私募公司债。 证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20251227 ◼ 二级市场成交情况： 本周（20251222-20251226）绿色债券周成交额合计 645 亿元，较上周减 少 156 亿元。分债券种类来看，成交量前三为非金公司信用债、金融机 构债和利率债，分别为 302 亿元、298 亿元和 50 亿元；分发行期限来 看，3Y 以下绿色债 ...