证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20260201 债市窄幅震荡中等待新催化（2026 年第 5 期） 2026 年 02 月 01 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐沐阳 执业证书：S0600523060003 xumy@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐津晶 执业证书：S0600523110001 xujj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《绿色债券周度数据跟踪（20260126- 20260130）》 2026-01-31 《二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20260126-20260130）》 2026-01-31 东吴证券研究所 1 / 38 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 如何看待 2026 年 1 月的 PMI 数据，以及央行针对非银机构的流动性安 排？本周（2026.1.26-2026.1.30），10 年期国债活跃 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 供给年前略有收缩，港口煤价小幅上涨 2026 年 02 月 01 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周（1 月 26 日至 1 月 30 日）港口动力煤现货价环比上涨 7 元/吨，报 收 692 元/吨。 供给端，本周环渤海四港区日均调入量 155.18 万吨，环比上周减少 2.52 万吨，降幅 1.60%；本周产地供应来看，山西较为稳定，陕西、内蒙略 有减少，港口供应量有所降低。 需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调出量189.33万吨，环比上周增加15.35 万吨，涨幅 8.82%；日均锚地船舶共 100.50 艘，环比增幅 21%；环渤海 四港区库存端 2468.60 万吨，环比上周减少 160 万吨，降幅 6.10% 。本 周港口调出量增加，库存显著降低，带动煤价上涨。 我们分析认为：本周港口煤价受到供给略有收缩叠加节前刚需补库影 响略有上涨，但港口库存仍处于较高位置，电厂日耗仍以刚需为主，且 工业用电临近过年有所走弱，叠加新能源水电风电挤压火电份额，预计 煤价维持震荡走势。 估值与建议： 仍旧关 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next 6 to 12 months [1]. Core Insights - The insurance industry experienced a slowdown in premium growth in Q4 2025, with life insurance premiums expected to see new policy growth in 2026 [1]. - The report highlights that the total premium income for life insurance companies in 2025 reached CNY 436.24 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, while the total premium income for the industry was CNY 526.96 billion, up 8.5% year-on-year [5]. - The report anticipates a strong performance for listed insurance companies in the 2026 New Year, driven by the ongoing trend of "deposit migration" and the attractiveness of insurance products compared to bank deposits [5]. Summary by Sections Life Insurance - In 2025, life insurance premiums grew by 9.1%, but Q4 saw a significant slowdown with a growth rate of only 0.3% compared to Q3, primarily due to a decrease in market demand following a reduction in the preset interest rate [5]. - December 2025 saw a monthly premium income of CNY 215.2 billion, marking a 6.0% year-on-year increase, reversing the negative growth seen in November [5]. Health Insurance - Health insurance premiums increased by 2.0% in 2025, but Q4 experienced a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year [5]. - The report notes that the health insurance sector is expected to grow significantly due to product innovation and improved pricing strategies [5]. Property Insurance - Property insurance premiums reached CNY 17,570 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9%. However, Q4 saw a slowdown with a growth rate of only 0.5% [5]. - The report indicates that the growth in non-auto insurance premiums was driven by significant increases in agricultural, health, accident, and liability insurance premiums in December [5]. Financial Performance and Valuation - The report suggests that both liability and asset sides of insurance companies are improving, with significant upward potential in valuations [5]. - As of January 30, 2026, the insurance sector's valuation is at historical lows, with expected PEV ratios ranging from 0.67 to 0.88 and PB ratios from 1.15 to 2.38 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next 6 months [1]. Core Insights - In December 2025, the growth rate of insurance premiums for both life and property insurance slowed down, but there is optimism for new business growth in life insurance by 2026 [1]. - The total premium income for personal insurance companies in 2025 reached CNY 46,491 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, while the fourth quarter saw a significant slowdown in growth to just 0.3% [5]. - The report anticipates a strong performance for listed insurance companies in the 2026 New Year, driven by the ongoing trend of "deposit migration" and the attractiveness of insurance products compared to bank deposits [5]. - Health insurance premiums grew by 2% in 2025, but the fourth quarter saw a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year [5]. - Property insurance premiums reached CNY 17,570 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, but the growth rate in the fourth quarter dropped to 0.5% [5]. - The report highlights that the liability side and asset side of insurance companies are continuously improving, with significant upward potential in valuations [5]. Summary by Sections Personal Insurance - The original premium income for personal insurance companies in 2025 was CNY 46,491 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 9.1% [5]. - The fourth quarter saw a premium income of CNY 5,191 billion, with a growth rate of only 0.3%, a decline of 24.7 percentage points from the previous quarter [5]. - December 2025 saw a monthly premium income of CNY 2,152 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.0% [5]. Health Insurance - Health insurance premiums in 2025 increased by 2.0%, but the fourth quarter experienced a slight decline of 0.1% [5]. - The report notes that the health insurance market has significant growth potential due to product innovation and scientific pricing [5]. Property Insurance - Property insurance premiums totaled CNY 17,570 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [5]. - The fourth quarter saw a growth rate of only 0.5%, a decline of 4.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [5]. - December 2025 recorded a monthly premium income of CNY 1,413 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [5]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the market demand remains strong, and the optimization of liability costs will alleviate pressure from interest rate spreads [5]. - The valuation of insurance stocks is currently at historical lows, with the insurance sector's estimated valuation for January 30, 2026, ranging from 0.67 to 0.88 times PEV and 1.15 to 2.38 times PB [5].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·非银金融 指南针（300803） 2025 年年报点评：市场活跃+业务协同效应 释放，业绩稳健增长 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,529 | 2,146 | 2,898 | 4,083 | 5,602 | | 同比（%） | 37.37% | 40.39% | 35.02% | 40.89% | 37.22% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 104 | 228 | 264 | 347 | 452 | | 同比（%） | 43.50% | 118.74% | 15.95% | 31.32% | 30.32% | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.17 | 0.37 | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.74 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 723.81 | 330.91 | 285.39 | 217.32 | 166.76 | [Table_Tag] [ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Ping An [1] Core Views - China Ping An is positioned as a leading comprehensive financial group in China, with a strong operational foundation and reliable dividend returns. The company has demonstrated a robust average ROE of 16.7% from 2015 to 2024, the highest among its peers. The dividend per share has consistently increased for 13 years, with a CAGR of 19.1% from 2015 to 2024, and a dividend payout ratio exceeding 30% [7][9][14]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Ping An has developed into one of the most comprehensive financial groups in China, with a diverse ownership structure and a wide range of services including insurance, banking, and asset management. The company has over 2.47 billion individual clients and aims to become a leading provider of comprehensive financial and healthcare services globally [14][15]. Strategic Blueprint - The company focuses on a "comprehensive finance + healthcare" strategy, leveraging technology to enhance service quality and efficiency. This strategy has evolved through various phases, emphasizing sales, service, technology, and demand-driven approaches [22][24]. Operating Performance - The company's net profit has rebounded significantly, with a 47.8% year-on-year increase in 2024, and a projected net profit of 132.9 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 11.5% growth [43][46]. The average ROE for the past decade stands at 16.7%, although it has slightly lagged behind peers in recent years due to accounting policy differences [50]. Dividend Returns - China Ping An has maintained a high dividend yield, with A and H shares yielding approximately 3.9% and 4.0% respectively. The company has consistently increased its cash dividends, with a notable rise from 0.53 yuan to 2.55 yuan per share from 2015 to 2024 [52][53].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ping An Insurance [1] Core Views - Ping An Insurance is positioned as a leading comprehensive financial group in China, with strong operational fundamentals and reliable dividend returns. The company has demonstrated a robust growth trajectory in its insurance and banking sectors, particularly through its bancassurance business, which has significantly contributed to its net profit growth. The stock is currently undervalued, presenting a compelling investment opportunity due to its high dividend yield and low valuation metrics [1][7][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Ping An Insurance has evolved into one of the most comprehensive financial groups in China, with a diverse range of services including insurance, banking, and asset management. The company has a decentralized shareholding structure, with no controlling shareholder, which enhances its operational flexibility [14][15]. Strategic Blueprint - The company focuses on a dual strategy of comprehensive finance and healthcare, leveraging technology to enhance service quality and efficiency. This strategy aims to build competitive barriers and provide a wide array of financial services to its clients [22][24]. Operating Performance - The net profit of Ping An Insurance has shown a significant recovery, with a projected net profit of 126.6 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 47.8%. The company has maintained a high return on equity (ROE) of 16.7% on average from 2015 to 2024, which is among the highest in the industry [43][50]. Dividend Returns - The company has consistently increased its dividend per share for 13 consecutive years, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.1% from 2015 to 2024. The current dividend yield for both A and H shares is around 4%, which is considered high within the industry [52].

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20260131 绿色债券周度数据跟踪 （20260126-20260130） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 一级市场发行情况： 本周（20260126-20260130）银行间市场及交易所市场共新发行绿色债券 11 只，合计发行规模约 115.53 亿元，较上周增加 31.53 亿元。发行年限 多为 3 年、5 年；发行人性质为央企子公司、地方国有企业、大型民企、 中央国有企业；主体评级多为 AAA、AA+级；发行人地域为安徽省、北 京市、广东省、江苏省、江西省、浙江省；发行债券种类为超短期融资 券、其他金融机构债、企业 ABS、私募公司债、一般公司债、中期票据。 ◼ 二级市场成交情况： 本周（20260126-20260130）绿色债券周成交额合计 671 亿元，较上周增 加 36 亿元。分债券种类来看，成交量前三为非金公司信用债、金融机 构债和利率债，分别为 328 亿元、257 亿元和 57 亿元；分发行期限来 看，3Y 以下绿色债券成交量最高，占比约 81.71%，市场热度持续；分 发行主体行业来看，成交量前三的行业为金 ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20260131 二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20260126-20260130） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 一级市场发行情况： 本周（20260126-20260130）银行间市场及交易所市场无新发行二级资本 债。 ◼ 二级市场成交情况： 本周（20260126-20260130）二级资本债周成交量合计约 2994 亿元，较 上周减少 348 亿元，成交量前三个券分别为 25 中行二级资本债 02BC （179.10 亿元）、25 农行二级资本债 04A（BC）（147.41 亿元）和 25 中行二级资本债 03A（BC）（110.91 亿元）。 分发行主体地域来看，成交量前三为广东省、山东省和山西省，分别约 为 2331 亿元、216 亿元和 140 亿元。 从到期收益率角度来看，截至 1 月 23 日，5Y 二级资本债中评级 AAA-、 AA+、AA 级到期收益率较上周涨跌幅分别为：-1.62BP、-0.15BP、- 1.15BP；7Y 二级资本债中评级 AAA-、AA+、AA 级到期收益率较上周 涨跌幅分别为：3.09B ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to reach a profit turning point, with performance exceeding market expectations. The forecast for 2025 indicates a significant recovery in profitability, with a projected net profit of 137.22 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 124.67% [1][7] - The company anticipates a substantial increase in membrane shipments, with Q4 2025 expected to exceed 35 billion square meters, representing a year-on-year growth of over 70% [7] - The company is actively expanding its product offerings, including lithium sulfide and solid-state electrolyte products, which are positioned to lead in performance metrics within the industry [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to be 13,602 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.83% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 137.22 million yuan in 2025, with significant growth expected in subsequent years, reaching 2,536.42 million yuan in 2026 and 3,149.25 million yuan in 2027 [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to recover to 0.14 yuan in 2025, with further increases to 2.58 yuan in 2026 and 3.21 yuan in 2027 [1][8] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 48.65 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 47.79 billion yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 348.24 for 2025, which is expected to decrease to 18.84 in 2026 and 15.17 in 2027 [1][8]