A 股策略周报：冲击逐步弱化 修复行情 延续 2025 年 4 月 15 日 A 股策略 策略周报 | | | P2 东兴证券策略报告 冲击逐步弱化 修复行情延续 关税冲击弱化 。短期虽然针对中国商品关税的博弈仍在继续，但市场超预期恶化的可能性在降低，谈判的预期在升温， 市场信心恢复在增强，中美贸易战大方向仍是对抗，但短期超出自身能力的关税措施是难以落地的，因此，贸易战的进 程将进入反复拉扯的阶段，市场对此逐步免疫。从指数层面来看，除了周一大跌之外，市场呈现出了快速持续修复的态 势，一方面，我们的政策应对主动及时，另一方面，市场对贸易战的信心逐步增强，以我为主的，东升西降的全球态势 也给了内外投资者信心。随着 3 月经济数据逐步披露，市场的关注点也逐步回归经济基本面本身，市场走势将会逐步常 态化，以自主可控为代表的产业链将会成为市场短期的核心逻辑。 修复行情延续。影响市场的三因素都迎来修复，首先，3 月经济数据显示，经济仍旧处于弱复苏阶段，PMI 处于 50 以上， 社融好于预期，市场受前期政策影响逐步恢复。其次，政策应对贸易战及时有效，市场信心显著增强，未来政策储备十 分丰富，后续刺激经济政策预期仍较为强烈 ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 分析师推荐 【东兴银行】宁波银行（002142.SZ）：息差韧性逐季增强，Q4 信贷扩张放 缓——2024 年年报点评（20250411） 事件：4 月 9 日，宁波银行公布 2024 年年报，实现营收、拨备前利润、净 利润 666.3、423.0、271.3 亿，分别同比+8.2%、+14.4%、+6.2%。加权平 均 ROE 为 13.59%，同比下降 1.49pct。年末不良贷款率 0.76%、环比持平， 拨备覆盖率 389.4%、环比下降 28pct。 点评：全年营收增速靠前受规模扩张和息差韧性支撑，4 季度单季信贷扩张 放缓。2024 全年来看，宁波银行实现营收 666.3 亿（yoy+8.2%）,营收增速 在上市行中靠前，主要是净利息收入实现较快增长（yoy+17.3%）受规模较 快增长和息差有韧性的支撑。盈利拆分来看，主要贡献项为规模增长和成本 有效管控，主要拖累项为非息收入和节税减少。4 季度边际变化看，盈利驱 动项中规模贡献环比下降、非息继续负向拖累、节税进一步减少，好的方面 是息差韧性增强。 信贷保持较快投放，对公为主要支撑。2024 年末宁波银行总资产、贷 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Ningbo Bank [2][8]. Core Views - Ningbo Bank achieved a revenue of 66.63 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, driven by robust net interest income growth of 17.3% [2][3]. - The bank's net interest margin (NIM) for 2024 was 1.86%, with a year-on-year decline of only 2 basis points, indicating strong resilience compared to peers [3][4]. - Asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.76% at year-end, unchanged from the previous year [4][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, Ningbo Bank reported revenues of 66.63 billion, with net profit reaching 27.13 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 8.2% and 6.2% respectively [2][9]. - The bank's return on equity (ROE) was 13.59%, a decrease of 1.49 percentage points from the previous year [2]. Loan and Asset Quality - Total assets and loans grew by 15.3% and 17.8% year-on-year, respectively, with corporate loans increasing by 24.4% and retail loans by 10.0% [2][4]. - The year-end NPL ratio was stable at 0.76%, while the coverage ratio decreased to 389.4%, down 28 percentage points [4][19]. Interest Margin and Income Sources - The bank's NIM improved slightly by 1 basis point from the previous quarter, with a year-on-year decline of only 2 basis points, outperforming the industry average [3][4]. - The main contributors to profit were scale growth and effective cost control, while non-interest income and tax reductions were the main detractors [2][8]. Future Outlook - The report projects continued high growth in scale and strong interest margin resilience for Ningbo Bank in 2025, with slight adjustments to profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Ningbo Bank [2][8]. Core Views - Ningbo Bank achieved a revenue of 66.63 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, driven by robust net interest income growth of 17.3% [2][3]. - The bank's net interest margin (NIM) for 2024 was 1.86%, with a year-on-year decline of only 2 basis points, indicating strong resilience compared to peers [3][4]. - Asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.76% at year-end, unchanged from the previous year [4][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, Ningbo Bank reported revenues of 66.63 billion, with net profit reaching 27.13 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 6.2% [2][9]. - The bank's return on equity (ROE) was 13.59%, a decrease of 1.49 percentage points from the previous year [2]. Loan and Asset Quality - Total assets and loans grew by 15.3% and 17.8% year-on-year, respectively, with corporate loans increasing by 24.4% [2][4]. - The year-end NPL ratio was stable at 0.76%, while the coverage ratio decreased to 389.4% [4][19]. Interest Margin and Income Sources - The net interest margin improved slightly by 1 basis point from the previous quarter, with a year-on-year decline of only 2 basis points [3][14]. - Non-interest income faced challenges, contributing negatively to overall profitability [2][8]. Future Outlook - The bank is expected to maintain high growth in scale and strong interest margin resilience, with revenue projections for 2025 at 71.9 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 7.9% [9][22]. - The report highlights potential risks from rising retail loan defaults and the impact of trade tensions on credit demand [8].

食品饮料行业：预期内需政策或进 一步加码，关注食品饮料防守配置 美国总统特朗普政府的"对等关税"计划大超市场预期，同时各国也纷纷出 台了应对措施。我国国务院关税税则委员会提出，自 2025 年 4 月 10 日 起，对原产于美国的所有进口商品加征 34%关税。在近期的一系列关税变动 下，我们预期国内刺激内需的政策或进一步加码，关注食品饮料板块防守配 置性机会。 食品饮料行业原材料成本或被推高。关税政策推出后，进口美国大豆关税升 至 47%，成本端带动下国内豆粕现货普涨 130-200 元/吨不等。美国进口国内 的农产品原材料中，以豆粕、玉米为主的饲料成本或上涨。饲料价格的上涨， 对肉类价格、乳制品价格或形成推高，进而影响食品饮料企业成本。此外， 白糖、豆油等软商品税率的上涨，或导致这类商品全球范围内价格的上涨， 整体对食品饮料行业原材料成本带来压力。 预期内需政策或进一步加码。在关税变化的背景下，我们对食品饮料行业有 几点判断：1 是国内刺激内需的政策会继续加码，全年宏观经济复苏不确定 性加强；2 是预计部分国际资金会从海外转移回国内，历史上消费板块受到 外资的青睐；3 是食品饮料行业受影响小于出口占比较高的 ...

中国国航（601111.SH）：亏损持续 缩窄，关注后续票价改善 2025 年 4 月 9 日 推荐/维持 中国国航 公司报告 事件：24 年公司实现营收 1666.99 亿元，同比增长 18.14%，归母净利润为-2.37 亿元，较 23 年同期的-10.46 亿元减亏 77.32%，扣非后归母净利润-25.40 亿 元，较 23 年的-31.77 亿元减亏 20.06%。24Q4 公司扣非后净利润-29.72 亿元， 亏损较 23 年同期的-23.04 亿元略有扩大，主要系汇兑损失导致四季度财务费 用 23.11 亿元，较 23Q4 的 10.90 亿元明显提升。 24 年量升价降明显，客运业务毛利率基本持平 23 年：2024 公司实现客运收 入 1517.89 亿元，同比增加 212.72 亿元。拆分看，公司客运运力投放同比提 升 21.74%，客座率同比提升 6.63pct 至 79.85%，但客公里收益下降 12.41% 至 0.5338 元。公司年报显示，24 年因运力投入上升而增加收入 283.73 亿元， 因客座率上升而增加收入 143.92 亿元，因收益水平下降而减少收入 214.93 亿 ...

公 司 研 究 贵州茅台（600519.SH）：24 年完满 收官，25 年迎接新挑战 事件：2024 年公司实现营业总收入 1741.44 亿，同比增长 15.66%，归母净 利润 862.28 亿，同比增长 15.38%。其中，24Q4 营业总收入 510.22 亿， 同比增长 12.77%，归母净利润 254.01 亿，同比增长 16.21%。在 24 年复 杂的环境下，公司完成年初制定的销售目标。 茅台酒和系列酒吨价上行。24 年茅台酒营业收入 1459.28 亿元，同比增长 15.28%。其中茅台酒销量 4.64 万吨，同比增长 10.22%，吨价同比增长 4.59%。吨价的大幅提升主要是因为 23 年底飞天茅台提价，同时生肖酒和精 品茅台放量带来的。24 年系列酒营收 246.84 亿，同比增长 19.65%，系列 酒在 2024Q2 增速达到 42.52%，但是 2024Q3 和 Q4 增速分别为 13.14%和 5.07%，主要是 1935 的投放量在下半年降速所致。24 年系列酒销量 3.69 万 吨，同比增长 18.47%，吨价同比增长 1%。 直营渠道略下滑，线下渠道更为重视。24 年茅 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai, indicating a strong expectation for the company's performance relative to market benchmarks [4]. Core Views - In 2024, Guizhou Moutai achieved total revenue of 174.14 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.23 billion, up 15.38% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 51.02 billion, growing 12.77% year-on-year, with net profit of 25.40 billion, an increase of 16.21% year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights the upward trend in the price of Moutai liquor and series liquor, with Moutai liquor revenue reaching 145.93 billion, a 15.28% increase year-on-year, and series liquor revenue at 24.68 billion, up 19.65% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is focusing more on offline channels, with direct sales channel revenue at 74.84 billion, growing 11.32% year-on-year, while the iMoutai platform saw a decline of 10.51% [2]. Financial Forecasts - For 2025, the company aims for a revenue growth of approximately 9%, with a net profit growth of 9.54%, leading to an expected EPS of 75.19. The current stock price corresponds to a valuation of 19.95 times earnings [2][3]. - The financial indicators predict a steady growth trajectory, with revenue expected to reach 189.82 billion in 2025, and net profit projected at 94.45 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 9.54% [3][8]. Company Overview - Guizhou Moutai, established in 1951, is a leading high-end liquor company in China, renowned for its Moutai liquor, which is produced using traditional methods and has a significant global brand presence [5]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 1,940.83 billion, with a 52-week stock price range between 1,748.0 and 1,261.0 [5]. Analyst Insights - The report emphasizes the company's ability to maintain a strong market share in the high-end liquor segment, particularly as the macroeconomic environment improves, suggesting that Guizhou Moutai can achieve growth exceeding the industry average [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China National Aviation (601111.SH) [2][10] Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 166.699 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.14%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -237 million yuan, a reduction in loss of 77.32% compared to the same period in 2023 [3] - The report highlights a significant increase in capacity and passenger load factor, but a decline in passenger kilometer revenue, indicating a trend of volume increase but price decrease across the industry [3][4] - The company is expected to benefit from improvements in ticket prices in 2025, as the focus shifts from increasing load factors to enhancing revenue quality [5][10] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 4.13% in its passenger business, slightly up from the previous year, but still at a low level [5] - The company plans to introduce 47 new aircraft in 2025 while retiring 17, maintaining a low growth rate in supply to alleviate excess capacity pressure [5] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 3.98 billion, 7.79 billion, and 9.44 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.23, 0.45, and 0.54 yuan [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The recent imposition of tariffs by the U.S. is expected to significantly impact the export of energy storage batteries from China, while the direct export of power batteries and new energy vehicles will be less affected [2][4] - In 2024, China's export scale of power and energy storage batteries is projected to reach 197.1 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 29.2%, where power and energy storage batteries account for 68% and 32% respectively [2] - The tariffs on lithium batteries exported to the U.S. have reached high levels, with power batteries facing a tariff of 82.4% and energy storage batteries at 64.9% [3] - The U.S. battery industry has a high degree of reliance on foreign supply, providing an opportunity for Chinese companies to maintain competitive advantages in the industry [5] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The recent tariffs will lead to a significant increase in export prices for batteries, with energy storage batteries being more affected than power batteries [3][4] - The U.S. is still the largest export market for Chinese lithium batteries, accounting for 25% of total exports [2] Market Dynamics - The U.S. domestic battery production capacity is limited, creating a gap of over 20 GWh, which Chinese companies can fill [5] - The technology for lithium iron phosphate, a key material for energy storage batteries, is primarily controlled by Chinese manufacturers, giving them a competitive edge [5] Future Outlook - Chinese lithium battery companies are actively expanding overseas to mitigate the impact of tariffs, establishing production capacities in regions with lower tax rates [5][10] - The overall market for energy storage batteries is expected to grow, with significant demand projected in the coming years [4]