Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the public utility sector, with a recommendation to focus on specific companies within the industry [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing electricity market reform in China, which aims to establish a more market-driven pricing mechanism for electricity [4][5]. - It highlights the potential for increased revenue in thermal power from non-electricity markets, as well as the benefits for hydropower from auxiliary service market developments [5][6]. - The report suggests that investment in the renewable energy sector is expected to become more rational, with an improved pricing mechanism for natural gas and water services [6]. Summary by Sections Electricity Market Reform - The report discusses the importance of the recent government opinions on enhancing the pricing governance mechanism, which includes promoting market-oriented pricing for various electricity sources [4]. - It notes that the reform is expected to accelerate, leading to a higher degree of market pricing for electricity commodities [4][5]. Revenue Potential - Thermal power is anticipated to gain higher returns from capacity and auxiliary service markets as the pricing for electricity, capacity, and auxiliary services becomes market-driven [5]. - Hydropower is expected to benefit from its superior attributes in various markets, including energy, capacity, and green electricity markets [5]. Renewable Energy and Pricing Policies - The report outlines the government's plans to enhance energy pricing policies to support green and low-carbon transitions, which may lead to increased demand for clean energy consumption [6]. - It also mentions that as the market for renewable energy becomes more mature, the risks associated with price fluctuations may increase, prompting a more rational investment approach [6]. Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific companies within the thermal power sector (e.g., Huadian International, Anhui Energy, Datang Power, Huaneng International), hydropower (e.g., Yangtze Power, Huaneng Hydropower), and nuclear power (e.g., China National Nuclear Power, China General Nuclear Power) [3].

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/化工 证券研究报告 行业点评 2025 年 04 月 08 日 [Table_AuthorInfo] 关税背景下看好农药凸显刚需属性 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_InvestInfo] 持续看好农药板块。一方面此次美国关税对于农药主要原药品种有所豁免， 一方面部分国内农药龙头企业已实现在美国建厂布局，我们认为美国加征关 税对农药行业影响有限，而以此催生的全球农产品贸易格局变化有望提振全 球农药市场需求。建议关注农药行业龙头扬农化工以及具有美国产能布局的 润丰股份。受益标的农药原药企业利民股份、先达股份、江山股份等。 美国加征关税对农药原药影响有限。美东时间 2025 年 4 月 2 日，美方宣布 对所有贸易伙伴征收"对等关税"。根据 2025 年 4 月 3 日公布的关税豁免清 单，对于较多的农药原药品种例如草甘膦、草铵膦、百草枯等均未被加征该 34%的关税。而对于从中国进口的农药制剂（海关编码 3808 项下）均将加 征该 34%的新的关税。由于农药具有刚需属性，自 2018 年中美贸易摩擦以 ...

宏观周报 2025 年 4 月 9 日 美国：降息预期持续发酵 ——海外经济政策跟踪 上周随着特朗普新一轮关税政策超预期公布，美、日股市回调，美元 指数、黄金价格承压，市场降息预期有所抬升。不过，非农数据显示 美国就业市场仍具韧性，短期内有所提振，但在关税政策影响下，市 场避险情绪仍占据主导，美联储降息预期持续发酵。具体来看： [Table_MainInfo] 宏观研究 证券研究报告 全球大类资产表现。上周（2025.3.28-2025.4.4），全球大类资产价格 中，主要经济体股市下跌。标普 500 下跌 9.1%，日经 225 下跌 9.0%， 恒生指数下跌 2.5%；COMEX 铜下跌 14.1%，IPE 布油期货下跌 10.0%， 标普-高盛商品指数下跌 6.7%；10 年期美债收益率较前一周回落 26BP 至 4.01%，国内 10Y 国债期货价格上升 0.7%；美元指数较前一周下降 1.1%，报收 102.9，日元升值，美元兑日元收 147.0，人民币贬值，美 元兑人民币汇率收 7.3。 经济：美国方面：3 月美国 ISM 制造业 PMI 跌至荣枯线之下；3 月新增 非农就业人数大幅回升、失业率回 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Outperform" rating with a target price adjustment to RMB 23.38 based on a 2025 PE of 60x [2][10] Core Insights - Significant improvement in cash flow and operational quality, with 2024 revenue at RMB 1.34 billion (-0.55%) and net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 73 million (-55.96%) [2][10] - Operating net cash flow increased by 56.81% to RMB 295 million, indicating effective credit management and accounts receivable collection [2][10] - Q4 2024 revenue showed a growth of 23.53% to RMB 671 million, with net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 54 million (+4.44%) [2][10] Contract Orders and Project Wins - Company won the Chongqing Hechuan District smart medical project with a contract value of RMB 91.73 million, enhancing its order book [3][10] - Additional contract with a subsidiary of China Academy of Engineering Physics valued at RMB 49.36 million, indicating steady growth in contract orders [3][10] Market Demand and Technological Development - Anticipated recovery in demand for medical and livelihood informatization, with a focus on enhancing product technology and service capabilities [4][10] - Leveraging self-developed models and platforms to support data governance and intelligent applications in the medical and governmental sectors [4][10] - Under the "Healthy China" and "Digital China" initiatives, the integration of AI and new technologies is expected to drive industry intelligence upgrades [4][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for ZTO Express, with a target price of USD 25.89, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of USD 16.51 [2][5]. Core Insights - ZTO Express reported stable profitability in 2024, with revenue of RMB 44.281 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, and a net profit of RMB 8.817 billion, up 0.8% [3][12]. - The company aims to focus on accelerating parcel volume growth in 2025, with guidance set at 20%-24% growth, following a decline in growth rate in 2024 [3][13]. - The average price per unit increased in 2024 due to an optimized customer structure, contributing to revenue growth [4][13]. - Transportation costs saw a significant decline in 2024, enhancing profitability despite rising sorting costs due to labor and automation expenses [4][10]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, ZTO Express achieved a gross margin of 31.0%, with a net profit margin of 22.8% [10]. - The company expects adjusted net income to ordinary equity of RMB 10.126 billion in 2025, with projected EPS of RMB 12.08 [5][14]. - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at RMB 49.605 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 12% [10]. Market Position and Strategy - ZTO Express completed a parcel volume of 34 billion in 2024, holding a market share of 19.4%, which is a slight decline from the previous year [3][4]. - The company plans to enhance its market share and operational efficiency in 2025, focusing on volume growth over pricing strategies [5][13].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 9 Apr 2025 国际工业+能源 Global Industrials + Energy 美国工业回流对工业机器人需求的边际拉升效应 The Marginal Effect of U.S. Reshoring to Industrial Robot Demand 杨斌 Bin Yang 毛琼佩 Olivia Mao bin.yang@htisec.com olivia.qp.mao@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [(Table_summary] Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 核心观点： 特朗普政府欲回流工业制造，劳动力短缺是掣肘。特朗普政府通过一系列政策希望工业回流至美国本土，壮大本土 制造能力，同时其又对外国人工推出了更严格政策，导致已经出现劳动力短缺的制造业问题更显著。从数据上看， 美国 25 年 2 月职位空缺约 756.8 万人高于 710 万人左右的失业人数，劳动力市场结构性供给不足和严格移民政策影 响工业回流 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China XLX Fertiliser with a target price of HK$5.18, based on a current price of HK$3.99 [1][8]. Core Insights - In 2024, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 22.96% year-on-year, driven by significant investment income from the sale of a subsidiary [5][6]. - The company achieved a revenue of 23.129 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 1.48% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 3.931 billion yuan, down 6.12% [5][6]. - The board proposed a dividend policy for 2025-2027 with a distribution ratio of at least 25% of audited net profit attributable to shareholders, and a minimum dividend of 0.24 yuan per share [5][6]. Revenue Breakdown - The fertilizer segment accounted for 58% of total revenue, while the chemical segment contributed 37% in 2024 [6][7]. - Urea revenue increased by 6.3% year-on-year to 7.306 billion yuan, with a sales volume growth of 29% [6][7]. - Compound fertilizers saw a revenue decrease of 2% to 5.994 billion yuan, with a slight sales volume decline of 0.3% [6][7]. - Methanol revenue grew by 14.5% year-on-year to 2.678 billion yuan, with a sales volume increase of 16% [6][7]. Ongoing Projects - The company is progressing with ongoing projects, including a 60,000-tonne polyformaldehyde project and a 300,000-tonne compound fertilizer project, both expected to enhance market presence [7][8]. - Future projects include a 920,000-tonne compound fertilizer and 160,000-tonne melamine facility, expected to start production in early 2027 [7][8]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 shows a projected net profit of 1.153 billion yuan in 2025, down 29.95%, followed by 1.611 billion yuan in 2026 and 2.142 billion yuan in 2027 [8][6]. - The target price is set at HK$5.18, based on a PE ratio of 5.3 times for 2025 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an OUTPERFORM rating for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group with a target price of HKD 5.97, indicating an expected upside from the current price of HKD 4.89 [2]. Core Insights - In FY24, the company achieved revenue of CNY 29.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, with finished drug revenue declining by 7.4% to CNY 23.74 billion due to volume-based procurement (VBP) impacts [3][12]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) was reported at 70.0%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 26.3% to CNY 4.33 billion [3][12]. - The company is expected to see incremental revenue from innovative drug products exceeding CNY 1.5 billion in FY25, despite challenges in the oncology segment due to price cuts from VBP [4][13]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY24 was CNY 29.01 billion, with a breakdown showing finished drug sales at CNY 23.74 billion and API and functional food sales at CNY 5.27 billion [3][12]. - R&D expenses increased by 7.5% year-on-year to CNY 5.19 billion, representing 17.9% of total revenue [3][12]. - The company anticipates revenue growth in FY25, with total revenue projected at CNY 31.4 billion, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year increase [7][17]. Segment Performance - The nervous system segment showed steady growth with sales reaching CNY 9.6 billion, a 6.1% increase year-on-year, driven by the performance of NBP [4][19]. - The oncology segment experienced a significant decline, with sales dropping to CNY 4.4 billion, a decrease of 28.3% year-on-year, primarily due to VBP impacts [4][19]. - The anti-infectives segment reported sales of CNY 4.1 billion, down 3.5% year-on-year, while the cardiovascular segment saw a decline of 14.8% to CNY 2.1 billion [4][19]. Licensing and Future Prospects - CSPC initiated a Phase III clinical trial for SYS6010 (EGFR ADC) in March 2025, with expectations for multiple out-licensing deals in 2025 [6][15]. - The company out-licensed ROR1 ADC to Radiance Biopharma, receiving an upfront payment of USD 15 million, with potential milestone payments of up to USD 1.2 billion [6][16]. - Licensing revenue is anticipated to become a recurring income stream for CSPC as it continues to expand its product offerings [6][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Morimatsu International Holdings with a target price of HKD 6.96, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of HKD 4.67 [2][20]. Core Insights - The company's FY24 revenue was CNY 6.95 billion, a decrease of 5.6% year-on-year, primarily due to delays in project execution. However, the gross profit margin improved to 29.5%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to better operational efficiency and material cost control [3][4][16]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 737 million, down 12.7% year-on-year, mainly impacted by accounts receivable impairment [17][20]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from Mainland China was CNY 2.75 billion, down 29.2% year-on-year, while overseas revenue reached CNY 4.20 billion, an increase of 20.8% year-on-year. Notably, North America saw a significant growth of 60.2% year-on-year [3][16]. - By segment, the oil and gas sector generated CNY 630 million (-35.2% y-y), while the power battery segment reported CNY 1.22 billion (+6.5% y-y) [22]. Order Backlogs - As of the end of FY24, the company had a backlog of CNY 8.1 billion, down from CNY 8.8 billion in the first half of 2024. The pharmaceutical sector accounted for CNY 2.3 billion of this backlog [5][18]. - New orders for FY24 totaled CNY 6.0 billion, with a notable decline of 11.3% in the second half of the year [5][18]. Valuation Adjustments - Due to weak backlog growth, revenue forecasts for FY25 and FY26 have been revised down to CNY 7.77 billion and CNY 8.47 billion, respectively, indicating growth rates of 11.8% and 9.1% year-on-year [8][20]. - The net profit forecasts for FY25 and FY26 have also been adjusted to CNY 872 million and CNY 939 million, suggesting growth rates of 18.3% and 7.7% year-on-year [8][20].

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/纺织与服装 证券研究报告 美国新征关税影响纺织制造行业解读 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 行业周报 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资建议。品牌端：政策加码消费有望加速复苏，看好四条投资主线：①当前 业绩筑底，后市业绩反弹潜力较大的低估值标的，重点关注滔搏，新秀丽；② 具有逆市拓店规划，渠道精细化改革，或积极布局新渠道新业态，重点关注海 澜之家，富安娜，受益标的森马服饰；③全民健身、户外风潮延续，重点关注 运动户外景气赛道，重点关注安踏体育，李宁，特步国际，波司登；④低估值、 高股东回报率标的仍具吸引力，重点关注江南布衣。制造端：美国关税影响行 业整体，后续各主要出口国与美国沟通结果仍待观察，坐拥高端设计研发能力 与快速订单响应能力等竞争壁垒的制造商更能有效应对此次关税冲击，重点关 注华利集团，九兴控股，裕元集团，受益标的申洲国际。 美国关税挑战影响多国，关注海外终端有品牌溢价能力的品牌和竞争壁垒更高 的制造商。此次美国加征关税带来行业隐忧主要有：1）税负传导价格影响海 外品牌终端消费；2）制造订单不确定 ...