出口回升：关税降温还是抢运再现 [Table_Authors] ——2025 年 6 月贸易数据点评 本报告导读： 部分产品的抢运透支导致关税降温后 6 月上旬出口表现依旧一般，6 月底对东盟的 抢运脉冲是全月出口动能回升的关键。三季度气候因素与关税影响叠加，出口总体 趋势下行、波动放大。若 7 月抢运持续，8 月后出口回落的斜率更高。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 整体来看： 出口结构上来看： 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.14 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 快 报 点 评 [Table_Report] 2025-07-16 同比增速上，2025 年 6 月，美元计价的中国出口增速 5.8%（前值 4.8%），进口增速 1.1%（前值-3.4%）。 从环比动能来看，6 月出口较 5 月环比增速 2.9%，而 4 月、5 月分 别为 0.6%、0.2%；进口环比增速-1.2%，略低于季节性水平。 商品贸易顺差小幅提升。 国别结构上，2025 年 6 月对美国增速回升，录得-16.1%；对东盟出 口增速提升，为 16.8% ...

Economic Overview - In Q2 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, exceeding the annual target of 5%[6] - The GDP growth rate for Q2 was 5.2%, with a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.5%, showing slight stability despite external pressures[6] Production Insights - The industrial added value for the first half of the year increased by 6.4%, with June's growth at 6.8%, up from 5.8% in May[13] - The capacity utilization rate for the industrial sector was 74.0%, slightly down from 74.1% in Q1, indicating ongoing structural issues in certain industries[8] Consumption Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods rose by 5.0% year-on-year in the first half, but June saw a decline to 4.8%, marking a drop of 1.6 percentage points from May[25] - Service consumption maintained a high growth rate, with a 6.0% increase in June, although it showed signs of marginal weakening compared to May[20] Investment Dynamics - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.8% year-on-year in Q2, with June's growth at just 0.4%, the first negative month-on-month change of the year[34] - Real estate investment faced significant challenges, with sales area and sales revenue down by 5.5% and 10.8% year-on-year in June, respectively[39] Risks and Challenges - The overall economic environment remains unbalanced, with low inflation and structural issues persisting, necessitating policy support to boost demand[10] - Trade uncertainties and potential domestic demand declines pose significant risks to economic stability[45]

宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.16 2025-07-16 特朗普关税博弈再起，全球资产短期扰动 [Table_Authors] 汪浩(分析师) ——海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： 特朗普关税博弈再起，扰动全球资产价格，本周全球大宗商品价格基本都上涨，全 球股市分化，新兴市场优于发达市场。美国经济依然具有韧性，特朗普不断督促鲍 威尔降息，但是新一轮关税对通胀的压力下，美联储降息仍有掣肘，同时关税冲击 经济，欧央行保留进一步降息稳经济的选项，日本央行加息可能延迟至 2026 年。 投资要点： 0755-23976659 wanghao8@gtht.com 登记编号 S0880521120002 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 梁中华(分析师) 021-23219820 liangzhonghua@gtht.com 登记编号 S0880525040019 | 1. | 美国：特朗普关税博弈再起，大宗商品价格推升通胀预期 3 | | --- | --- | | 2. | 欧洲：生产端走强，需求端偏弱 5 | | 3. | 政策：特朗普施 ...

wo[Table_Title] Research Report 16 Jul 2025 电子 Technology Google 截胡 Windsurf，布局 AI 编程 Google Snatches Windsurf from OpenAI, Escalating the AI Coding Races 姚书桥 Barney Yao 吴叡霖 Louis Ng barney.sq.yao@htisec.com louis.yl.ng@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] Flash Analysis [Table_summary] 事件： 原本接近被 OpenAI 以 30 亿美元收购的 AI 编程初创公司 Windsurf，最终选择加入 Google DeepMind 团队，重心转向 代理式编码（Agentic Coding）。Google 并未控股或收购 Windsurf，而是通过非独家技术许可+人才吸纳的方式实现软 并购。Windsurf CEO Varun Mohan、联合创始人 Douglas Chen 等核心技术骨干正式入驻 DeepMind，并将围绕 Gemini 构建新一代编程 ...

研究报告 Research Report 16 Jul 2025 安踏体育 ANTA SPORTS (2020 HK) 2Q25 营运表现点评：各品牌零售流水符合预期，多赛道布局强化集团收入利润稳步增长 2Q25 Operation Review: Retail Sales In line With Expectations, Steady Growth in Group Revenue and Profits [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$89.80 目标价 HK$109.40 HTI ESG 0.7-1.6-3.5 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$252.09bn / US$32.11bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$98.53mn 发行股票数目 2,807mn 自由流通股 (%) 47% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$106.30 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Pop Mart International [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 exceeded expectations, with revenue projected to grow by no less than 200% year-on-year, and net profit expected to increase by no less than 350% [12] - The growth is attributed to the global recognition of Pop Mart's IP, diversified product categories driving revenue growth across regions, and improved cost management enhancing profitability [2] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 35.1 billion, RMB 53.5 billion, and RMB 69.1 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 169%, 53%, and 29% respectively [5] - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are RMB 11.2 billion, RMB 17.8 billion, and RMB 23.8 billion, with corresponding growth rates of 229%, 58%, and 34% [5] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 66.8% in 2024 to 74.9% by 2027 [11] Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully expanded its IP portfolio, with new IPs like CRYBABY gaining traction, indicating a reduced reliance on a few key IPs [4] - The overseas business is growing rapidly, particularly in the U.S., where price increases are expected to enhance regional gross margins [4] - The launch of new product lines, including the independent accessory brand POPOP, aims to broaden the customer base and explore IP value [3]

Equity – Asia Research 智能影像设备行业深度： 全景&运动相机，顺应科技的影像工具&社交玩具 Intelligent Video Device Industry Report: Potential of Pano/Action Camera 目录 For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com 2 1. 顺应科技的影像工具&社交玩具 2. 前期记录分享情怀持续酝酿，后期剪辑门槛显著降低 3. 全景/运动相机市场规模持续扩张，成长空间宽广 • 欧美市场权重引领，中国市场厚积薄发 • 影石全景相机市场份额领先，运动相机蓄势待发 4. 国内龙头品牌经营优异，发展潜力十足 • GoPro：目标恢复成长，培养用户订阅服务 • 影石创新：渠道产品布局均衡，盈利能力表现优异 • 关注国内品 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests that domestic thermal power companies have low PE valuations and potential for higher dividends, with overseas leaders like Duke Energy having PEs around 20 [2][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that thermal power asset acquisition/sale transactions have PB valuations significantly higher than the secondary market valuations for thermal power stocks, indicating that thermal power stocks are undervalued [1][11]. - It notes that since 2022, there have been multiple asset transactions, primarily in northern and central regions, with 7 acquisitions (4 by power companies and 3 by coal companies) and 4 sales (all by power companies) [2][10]. - The median PB valuation for thermal power assets in these transactions is 1.3, while the median PB for listed thermal power companies is 0.9, suggesting a disparity in valuation [11][12]. - The median PE valuation for thermal power assets exceeds 10, with a range of 7.2 to 31.8 for the relevant transactions, indicating that industry capital values thermal assets at a premium [12]. Summary by Sections Investment Advice - Domestic thermal power companies are viewed as having low PE valuations with room for dividend increases, while international leaders are valued around 20 times PE [2][10]. Asset Transactions - The report details 11 acquisition/sale cases, with 3 having negative book values but acquired at a premium, and the remaining 8 having PBs ranging from 1.0 to 2.6 [11][12]. - The report emphasizes that the thermal power sector is experiencing significant asset transactions, particularly in the northern and central regions of China [2][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates that the median PB for thermal power assets is 1.3, compared to 0.9 for listed companies, highlighting the undervaluation of thermal power stocks [11][12]. - The median PE for thermal power assets is noted to be over 10, with a range of 7.2 to 31.8, suggesting that industry capital values thermal assets at a higher level than the secondary market [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Borouge, indicating an expected relative return exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% over the next 12-18 months [25]. Core Insights - Borouge is positioned as a global leader in the chemical industry, focusing on high-value and sustainable returns, with a strong emphasis on maintaining cost leadership and product differentiation [2][4]. - The establishment of Borouge Group International (BGI) through the merger with Borealis and the acquisition of NOVA Chemicals is expected to enhance operational efficiency and market presence, with a projected EBITDA of over $7 billion throughout the cycle [3][4]. - The company anticipates maintaining a premium pricing strategy for its polyethylene and polypropylene products, with benchmarks set at $200/ton and $140/ton respectively [4]. - Borouge's average EBITDA margin is projected to reach 26% from FY20-24, significantly higher than the industry average of 16% [4]. Company Overview - Borouge, headquartered in Abu Dhabi, is one of the largest petrochemical producers globally, primarily owned by ADNOC and Borealis [2]. - The company operates one of the world's largest integrated polyolefins facilities in Al Ruwais, with a production capacity of 5 million tons per year [2]. - Borouge's product offerings mainly include polyethylene and polypropylene, with a significant sales focus on the Asian market [2]. Strategic Developments - The merger forming BGI is expected to create a total production capacity of 13.6 million tons per year, positioning it as the fourth-largest player globally [3]. - The company is exploring the feasibility of a new specialty polyolefins plant in China, which is seen as a promising market due to its significant sales contribution [7][8]. - Borouge emphasizes the importance of artificial intelligence and digitalization in optimizing operations and maintaining high utilization rates in its facilities [8]. Financial Outlook - BGI plans to offer a minimum annual dividend of 16.2 fils per share, targeting a payout of 90% of free cash flow [6]. - The company expects to maintain its dividend policy, with a projected distribution of $1.3 billion in FY25 prior to the completion of the merger [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 960 million to RMB 990 million for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 57.64% to 62.57% [3][9]. - The company has shown strong performance in both online and offline channels, with a 25% year-on-year growth in domestic revenue and a revenue growth rate exceeding 40% in Q2 2025 [4][10]. - The Ecovacs brand has maintained excellent performance since Q4 2024, with over 60% growth in Q2 2025 [4][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: RMB 16,542 million - 2025E: RMB 19,811 million (20% growth) - 2026E: RMB 22,375 million (13% growth) - 2027E: RMB 24,866 million (11% growth) [2][4]. - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2024: RMB 806 million - 2025E: RMB 1,824 million (126% growth) - 2026E: RMB 2,009 million (10% growth) - 2027E: RMB 2,283 million (14% growth) [2][4]. - The expected diluted EPS for the years 2025 to 2027 are RMB 3.17, RMB 3.49, and RMB 3.97 respectively [2][11]. Valuation - The company is assigned a 25x PE valuation for 2025, leading to a target price of RMB 79.25 [5][11].