Investment Focus - Since the beginning of 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index has broken above the 4,000 and 4,100 thresholds and is approaching 4,200, indicating signs of market overheating with significant inflows into commercial aerospace and AI application sectors, leading to a record turnover of RMB 3.6 trillion [1][26] - Margin financing inflows reached RMB 91.2 billion over the first four trading days of the week, with outstanding margin balances exceeding RMB 2.7 trillion, reflecting a strong inflow intensity comparable to the cyclical highs of August-September 2025 [1][26] - Retail investor inflows have been consistently rising, indicating increased participation from individual investors [1][26] Regulatory Environment - On January 15, 2026, the China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized a "stability-first" approach to consolidate market momentum and prevent extreme fluctuations, including raising the minimum margin financing collateral ratio from 80% to 100% [2][27] - A significant net outflow of RMB 66.809 billion was recorded in broad-based A-share ETFs on January 15, marking the highest outflow on record, with the Huatai-PineBridge CSI300 ETF experiencing a net outflow of RMB 20.157 billion [2][27] - The relocation of high-frequency traders' servers is expected to enhance trading fairness and curb excessive speculation, which may dampen short-term speculative sentiment but not alter the medium-term market trend [2][27] Market Outlook - The market may enter a phase of consolidation as regulatory cooling measures take effect, particularly affecting previously leading sectors like commercial aerospace, which saw significant declines [3][28] - Despite short-term fluctuations, a slow-bull trend remains a common goal for both regulators and long-term capital, suggesting that the spring rally is not over but may require a "washout" for a healthier uptrend [3][28] Investment Strategy - During the consolidation phase, it is recommended to remain patient while maintaining a medium-term bullish outlook, focusing on identifying Chinese assets with strong medium-to-long-term value [3][29] - A-shares and Hong Kong equities are expected to complement each other, with Hong Kong tech stocks likely to outperform A-shares in the near term due to upcoming AI product launches [3][29] - Investors are advised to align with regulatory intentions to curb speculative trading and focus on structural opportunities in sectors such as semiconductors, innovative drugs, and Hong Kong tech leaders [3][30] Sector Highlights - **Semiconductors**: TSMC's 2026 capex guidance is set at USD 52-56 billion, exceeding 100% of its previous year's operating cash flow, indicating strong demand driven by AI [3][30] - **Innovative Drugs**: The healthcare sector has seen a net outflow of RMB 4.3 billion over the past four months, contrasting sharply with previous inflows, while remaining in a favorable policy environment with new drug listings [3][32] - **Hong Kong Tech Leaders**: Companies like Alibaba and Tencent are integrating AI into their ecosystems, with strong growth in overseas business for Alibaba Cloud and potential upgrades for Baidu's listing status [3][33] - **Optical Modules**: Following significant gains, the sector is now in a consolidation phase, with a shift towards earnings certainty as A-shares enter the annual results pre-announcement window [3][34]

2025 电量蓄水双高，高股息优势凸显 长江电力(600900) 长江电力 2025 业绩快报点评 本报告导读： 2025 业绩亮眼，蓄能保障 26H1 枯期电量，低利率环境下高股息、稳现金流优势显 著。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 78,144 | 84,492 | 85,882 | 84,834 | 88,712 | | (+/-)% | 13.5% | 8.1% | 1.6% | -1.2% | 4.6% | | 净利润(归母) | 27,245 | 32,496 | 34,166 | 35,187 | 37,436 | | (+/-)% | 14.8% | 19.3% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 6.4% | | 每股净收益(元) | 1.11 | 1.33 | 1.40 | 1.44 | 1.53 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 13.5% | 15.5% | 15.5% | 1 ...

Financial Impact - Ctrip (TCOM) is under investigation for alleged monopolistic practices, with a potential fine estimated at RMB 1.5 billion, representing 4% of its 2024 domestic revenue[2][5] - The financial impact of the fine is considered limited, with a projected net profit margin decrease of 2 percentage points for the 2026 fiscal year[5][10] Revenue Projections - Ctrip's total revenue for the 2026 fiscal year is expected to reach RMB 70.1 billion, reflecting a 13% year-on-year growth[10][11] - Domestic accommodation revenue is projected to grow by 3% year-on-year, while overall accommodation revenue is expected to increase by 13%[10][11] Profitability Metrics - Non-GAAP operating profit for 2026 is estimated at RMB 19.1 billion, a 5% increase from the previous year, with a profit margin of 27%, down 2 percentage points[10][11] - The net commission rate is expected to stabilize at 8.8%, which is within the historical range of 8%-10%[10][11] Market Position and Risks - Ctrip is expected to maintain its leading position in the online travel market, but faces risks of market share loss due to regulatory pressures and competition[8][9] - Potential loss of price-sensitive customers and hotel inventory could occur if Ctrip allows merchants to set their own prices without inventory lock-in[9] Valuation Outlook - Ctrip's valuation may revert to historical levels of 12-15 times earnings, with the stock price potentially dropping to a range of USD 44-55 per ADR[15] - The company’s valuation has been driven by strong revenue growth and profit margin expansion, but regulatory scrutiny may hinder future profitability[15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of 6.83 HKD, reflecting a 9% downside based on a 2025 PE of 10X [8][11]. Core Insights - The company focuses on mass professional sports, leading industry turnover growth, and is committed to technological innovation and product upgrades, with rapid expansion of super stores [8][10]. - The company achieved steady turnover growth in Q4 2025, with main brand offline, online, and children's turnover growing by 10%, high double digits, and 10% year-on-year respectively [9][10]. - The company exceeded its annual opening target for super stores, with 126 stores opened by the end of 2025, surpassing the initial target of 100 stores [10][11]. - The company is increasing its focus on mental products and professional events, with successful product launches and event sponsorships planned for 2026 [11]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E is 10,074 million, 11,147 million, 12,355 million, and 13,732 million RMB respectively, reflecting growth rates of 19.6%, 10.7%, 10.8%, and 11.1% [3]. - Projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1,271 million, 1,403 million, and 1,560 million RMB, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.5X, 7.7X, and 6.9X [3][8]. - The company’s gross profit is expected to increase from 4,183 million RMB in 2024A to 5,633 million RMB in 2027E, maintaining a gross margin around 40% [3].

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.15 2026-01-16 Charles River 战略收购强化供应链，DSA 需求回暖提振 2026 年展望 本报告导读： 随着 Charles River 于 2026 年初完成 NHP 供应商 K.F.的战略收购并全面控股 PathoQuest，叠加 DSA 订单回暖，公司可能在 2026 年迎来业绩与估值的双重修复。 投资要点： 行 业 专 题 研 究 票 研 究 [table_Authors] [Table_Summary] 两起收购事件。Charles River 宣布两项战略收购：以约 5.1 亿美元收 购柬埔寨非人灵长类动物供应商 K.F. (Cambodia) Ltd.，预计 2026 年 Q1 完成，交易完成后将通过 K.F.及其毛里求斯子公司 Noveprim 实 现大部分年度 NHP 需求自供；同时行权收购 PathoQuest 剩余 79% 股权，收购价约 5160 万欧元（约 6000 万美元），预计 2026 年贡献 收入 1500-2000 万美元。 供应链与技术能力双重强化。收购 K.F.有助于公司在全球 NHP 资源 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating, setting a target price of RMB 206.00 based on a current price of RMB 165.46 [2]. Core Insights - The company, Sungrow Power Supply, is positioned as a leader in the global photovoltaic inverter market and is experiencing significant growth in its energy storage business, which is expected to become the primary growth engine [3][5]. - The global photovoltaic installation demand is projected to continue its long-term growth trend, with new installations expected to reach approximately 610GW in 2025 and 642GW in 2026 [4][33]. - The energy storage market is anticipated to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 50% from 2021 to 2027, with large-scale storage installations expected to rise from 28.4GWh to 605GWh [5][42]. Company Overview - Sungrow Power Supply was established in 1997 and went public in 2011, focusing on the research, production, and sales of renewable energy equipment, including photovoltaic, wind, storage, and hydrogen energy technologies [9][11]. - The company has built a comprehensive industrial chain covering core equipment manufacturing, system integration, and energy services, forming a synergistic ecosystem [9][10]. Photovoltaic Inverters - The company maintains a leading market share in photovoltaic inverters, with a global shipment volume of 147GW in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.08% and a market share of approximately 23%-25% [4][41]. - The product matrix includes a range of inverters suitable for various applications, from residential to large-scale ground-mounted power plants, ensuring a robust global presence [3][10]. Energy Storage - The energy storage business is expected to surpass the photovoltaic inverter segment as the primary growth driver by 2025, with significant orders and a high proportion of overseas orders [5][42]. - The company has developed advanced energy storage solutions, including the PowerTitan liquid-cooled storage system, which has been successfully implemented in major projects [10][42]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of RMB 664.02 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32.95%, and a net profit of RMB 118.81 billion, reflecting a substantial growth of 56.34% [22][23]. - The gross profit margin improved to 34.88%, indicating enhanced profitability and cash flow management [22][23]. Global Expansion - Sungrow Power Supply has expanded its operations to over 180 countries, with a strong presence in Europe, North America, the Middle East, and emerging markets [30][42]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for renewable energy solutions globally, particularly in large-scale storage projects [42][46].

AI 技术发展迅速，引领制药领域创新变革 本报告导读： 英伟达与礼来共建 AI+制药实验室、Tempus 业绩高增长共同验证 AI 正在从概念走向 制药与医疗核心生产力，AI+医药进入产业化加速期。 投资要点： 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 题 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.15 [table_Authors] 2026-01-16 [Table_Summary] AI+制药：人工智能赋能制药全产业链。英伟达与礼来宣布成立首个 专注于将人工智能应用于药物研发关键挑战的 AI+制药联合创新实 验室。该实验室将汇集礼来在药物发现、开发与制造方面的全球领 先专业知识及英伟达在人工智能、加速计算和 AI 基础设施方面的技 术优势。双方计划在未来五年投入最多 10 亿美元用于人才、基础设 施与算力资源建设，这标志着 AI 正式进入全球头部药企核心研发体 系。我们认为，英伟达与礼来的合作意味着 AI 将从工具层升级为药 物研发的核心生产力，推动制药模式由"经验驱动"向"数据与算法驱 动"转型。 AI+医疗：Tempus 业绩验证商业化能力。AI 医疗 ...

研究报告 Research Report 15 Jan 2026 李宁 LI NING (2331 HK) 4Q25 营运表现点评：4Q25 流水符合预期，上调 25 年净利率指引 4Q25 Operating Review: GMV in Line with Expectations; 25E Net Profit Margin Guidance Raised [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$19.55 目标价 HK$22.30 HTI ESG 0.8-2.2-3.5 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$50.53bn / US$6.48bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$42.39mn 发行股票数目 2,585mn 自由流通股 (%) 86% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$20.28-HK$13.96 注：现价 HK$19.55 为 20 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 14 Jan 2026 美国能源自动化航空航天与国防 US Energy Automation Aerospace and National Defense 新工业双周报(12/29-01/11)： 穆迪预测未来五年全球数据中心投资至少达 3 万亿美元；PJM 预计 2040 年夏季用电量将增加至 220GW Moody's: Global Data Center Investment to Reach at Least $3 Trillion Over Next Five Years; PJM: Summer Power Demand to Rise to 220 GW by 2040 毛琼佩 Olivia Mao 杨钰其 Yuqi Yang olivia.qp.mao@htisec.com yq.yang@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 核心观点： 1）全球基 ...

宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.10 2026-01-14 失业率回落：1 月降息门槛仍高 2025 年 12 月美国非农数据点评 本报告导读： 12 月美国就业市场低招聘、低裁员的状态仍在持续。一方面，失业率超预期回落至 4.4%，中断了持续回升的势头；但另一方面，新增就业仍呈放缓趋势，后续年度修 正或有进一步下调。在已连续三次降息且失业率未进一步走高的情况下，1 月份美 联储仍有时间与空间选择暂停降息。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 快 报 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Summary] 失业率回落：市场担忧暂缓。短期内市场对美国就业持续恶化的担 忧或暂时缓解。一方面，美国 12 月失业率超预期回落至 4.4%，11 月失业率也下修至 4.5%，失业率恶化势头有所中断。U6 失业率也有 明显回落，边缘就业群体压力有所减轻。另一方面，12 月平均每周 工作时长虽有回落但仍处于稳定区间，平均时薪增速有所回升，初 次申请失业金人数在 12 月以来也维持稳定。 就业市场："冻结"状态仍在持续。虽然失业率攀升的警报暂时解除， 但新增就业仍 ...