日本策略 Japan Strategy 海上观日：2026 日本股市展望 Japan Stock Market 2026 Outlook [Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 5 Jan 2026 展望 2026 年，我们认为 2026 年将是标志着日本 30 年来重新进入通胀型经济的第一年。随着日 本国内居民购买力的提升和政府和民间投资的加速增长，内需将进一步恢复。对上市公司监管的 强化和经济政策的推进将推动日本企业更积极更有效率的开展投资，从而改善市场对上市公司 ROE 的预期，带动日本市场整体估值的提升。 [Table_yejiao1] 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国 际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证 券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请参阅附录。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer) [Table_hea ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the essential consumer goods sector in China is "Outperform" for multiple companies including Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [1]. Core Insights - In December 2025, four out of eight monitored essential consumer sectors showed positive growth, while four experienced negative growth. The growing sectors included condiments, frozen foods, soft drinks, and catering services, while the declining sectors comprised mid-to-high-end baijiu, mass-market baijiu, dairy products, and beer. The overall performance indicates a slight improvement in growth rates for most sectors, driven by policy support and changing consumer preferences [27]. Revenue Forecasts - The revenue for mid-to-high-end baijiu in December was 28.4 billion yuan, down 17.0% year-on-year, with a cumulative revenue of 377.6 billion yuan for the year, reflecting a 7.1% decline [28]. - The mass-market baijiu sector generated 25.2 billion yuan in December, a 3.1% year-on-year decline, with a total revenue of 206.1 billion yuan for the year, down 7.9% [29]. - The beer industry reported revenue of 8.2 billion yuan in December, a decrease of 5.7% year-on-year, with a cumulative revenue of 170.5 billion yuan for the year, down 0.3% [30]. - The condiments sector achieved revenue of 41.1 billion yuan in December, up 1.4% year-on-year, with a total of 453.9 billion yuan for the year, reflecting a 1.3% increase [31]. - Dairy products generated 31 billion yuan in December, down 3.4% year-on-year, with a cumulative revenue of 450 billion yuan for the year, down 2.3% [32]. - The frozen food sector's revenue reached 9.57 billion yuan in December, up 4.0% year-on-year, with a total of 106 billion yuan for the year, a 2.3% increase [33]. - The soft drink industry reported revenue of 40.2 billion yuan in December, up 3.6% year-on-year, with a cumulative revenue of 698.5 billion yuan for the year, a 4.1% increase [35]. - The catering sector recorded revenue of 13.9 billion yuan in December, up 0.7% year-on-year, with a total of 174.6 billion yuan for the year, down 0.6% [36]. Subsector Performance - The mid-to-high-end baijiu market showed a pattern of initial growth followed by a downturn, with significant price corrections observed at the end of December [28]. - The mass-market baijiu segment remained resilient, supported by government policies and year-end holiday spending [29]. - Beer consumption faced challenges due to cold weather and seasonal factors, impacting outdoor consumption scenarios [30]. - The condiments sector benefited from promotional activities and a slight recovery in catering demand, although profitability remains under pressure [31]. - Dairy products continued to experience weak demand, with increased discounting observed in retail channels [32]. - The frozen food sector maintained robust consumer demand, with stable growth in customized orders [33]. - The soft drink sector saw a narrowing of discount margins, indicating reduced competition during the off-season [35]. - The catering industry showed signs of stabilization, although mid-to-high-end dining demand remains sluggish [36].

[Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周我们认为， A 股或再度尝试上行，港股也有望跟随补涨，但 A 股进一步上行将面临年度高点的压力，在成交未 出现明显放量之前，直接突破难度较大，全周走势或呈现冲高回落。本周 A 股上证综指小幅上行 0.1%，创业板指跌 1.3%，港股在周五明显补涨的带动下全周表现较强，恒生指数涨 2%，恒生科技涨 4.3%。 [Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 4 Jan 2026 中国策略 China Strategy 半导体主线逐步确立，维持逢低配置思路 Semiconductors Emerging as a Core Theme; Continue to Accumulate on Pullbacks 周林泓 Amber Zhou 黄雨昕 Yuxin Huang amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com yx.huang@htisec.com 上周我们提到，国际贵金属进入投机加速阶段 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Japanese consumer sector is experiencing a mixed recovery, with Black Friday promotions boosting consumption, but duty-free sales showing negative growth [1][3] - Consumer confidence in Japan has improved significantly, with the consumer confidence index rising to 37.5 in November, the highest since April 2024 [2][9] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, marking the highest level since 1995, indicating a shift towards normalizing monetary policy [2][11] Macroeconomic Summary - The consumer confidence index increased by 1.7 points from October to November, with notable improvements in perceptions of overall living conditions and income growth expectations [2][9] - November's core CPI remained at 3.0%, exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 44 consecutive months, while the overall CPI for goods rose by 4.0% [2][11] - The actual wage in October contracted by 0.7% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than the previous month's 1.3% [2][9] Industry Summary - Black Friday promotions have become a key driver for retail, with companies leveraging exclusive member discounts and early online sales to attract customers [3][15] - Domestic consumers are exhibiting frugal spending habits, focusing on value for money, which has led to a contraction in daily expenditures [3][15] - Duty-free sales have turned negative, primarily due to a decline in high-value goods, although consumables like cosmetics and food continue to grow at double-digit rates [3][15] Essential Companies - In the essential goods retail sector, November same-store sales for PPIH, Aeon, and 7-Eleven increased by 6.9%, 6.3%, and 2.7% respectively, driven by higher average transaction values [4][18] - Welcia and Matsukiyo Cocokara reported same-store sales growth of 4.1% and 3.6% respectively, with customer traffic increasing slightly [4][20] - The beverage sector saw a decline in sales for Suntory and Asahi, with Asahi's sales dropping by 21% due to a cyberattack affecting operations [4][21] Optional Companies - The restaurant sector performed well, with notable same-store sales growth for various chains, including Sally's and Skylark, with increases of 19.0% and 8.9% respectively [5][27] - Clothing sales also showed strong performance, with same-store sales for companies like Shimamura and Uniqlo increasing by 16.0% and 7.6% respectively, driven by seasonal demand [5][29] - Department store sales reached 521.4 billion yen in November, a 0.9% increase year-on-year, marking four consecutive months of growth [5][34] Stock Market Performance - The consumer sector saw most stocks rise from November 28 to December 30, with the service industry and food and beverage sectors increasing by 4.3% and 2.8% respectively [6] - Investment recommendations focus on companies with optimistic profit outlooks, such as Mercari and Kirin Holdings, which have shown strong operational performance [6][6]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating for Softcare, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [1][2]. Core Insights - Softcare is positioned as a leading player in the hygiene products sector within emerging markets, focusing on localized deployment to build a competitive moat [1][4]. - The company has a strong market presence in Africa, with leading market shares in baby diapers (20.3%) and sanitary napkins (15.6%) based on 2024 sales volume [4][9]. - The growth drivers include demographic advantages and low penetration rates in the hygiene products market, which present significant growth potential [4][29]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for Softcare show a steady increase, with expected revenues of $551 million in 2025, representing a 21% year-over-year growth [7]. - Net profit is projected to reach $112 million in 2025, reflecting a 14% increase from the previous year [7]. - The company maintains a gross profit margin (GPM) of approximately 34.2% for 2025, indicating stable profitability [7][24]. Market Dynamics - The African market for baby and female hygiene products is characterized by a young population and increasing urbanization, which are expected to drive demand [28][29]. - The penetration rates for baby diapers and sanitary napkins in Africa are significantly lower than in developed markets, suggesting ample room for growth [29][31]. - The report highlights that the African hygiene products market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.9% from 2025 to 2029, outpacing other regions [33]. Competitive Advantages - Softcare has developed a diversified brand strategy with over 340 SKUs across four core categories, enhancing its market reach [5]. - The company has established a localized production model with eight factories across eight African countries, which reduces costs and improves supply chain efficiency [5][6]. - A multi-channel sales network has been developed, reaching over 80% of the local population in key markets [5]. Future Growth Strategy - Softcare plans to replicate its successful African model in Latin America and other emerging markets, aiming to create a sustainable second growth curve [6]. - The company is focused on expanding its product categories through both organic growth and strategic acquisitions [6]. Valuation - The report assigns a target price of HK$40.50, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25x for 2026, reflecting the company's strong market position and growth potential [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the essential consumer goods sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [1]. Core Insights - Downstream demand remains subdued, with modest fluctuations in costs across various consumer goods categories [1][34]. - The cost indices for six monitored consumer goods showed mixed trends, with soft drinks and instant noodles experiencing increases, while condiments, dairy products, frozen foods, and beer saw declines [34]. Cost Index Summary Beer - The spot cost index for beer decreased by 1.05% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 0.88%. Year-to-date, the spot index has declined by 3.84% and the futures index by 7.87% [4][35]. - Glass prices fell by 1.9% month-on-month and 18.0% year-on-year, while aluminum prices showed mixed trends [12][35]. Condiments - The spot cost index for condiments dropped by 0.29% month-on-month, and the futures index fell by 0.47%. Year-to-date, the spot index has decreased by 3.95% and the futures index by 9.74% [16][36]. - Soybean prices showed a slight decrease in spot prices but an increase in futures prices [16][36]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index for dairy products decreased by 0.45% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 0.39%. Year-to-date, the spot index has declined by 2.92% and the futures index by 4.19% [19][37]. - Raw milk prices remained stable at 3.03 yuan/kg, with supply pressures emerging due to cash flow issues in dairy farming [19][37]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles rose by 0.49% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 0.51%. Year-to-date, the spot index has decreased by 0.77% and the futures index by 7.05% [23][38]. - Palm oil prices showed a decline, impacting overall costs [23][38]. Frozen Foods - The spot cost index for frozen foods dropped by 0.54% month-on-month, and the futures index fell by 1.13%. Year-to-date, the spot index has decreased by 0.65% and the futures index by 2.42% [27][39]. - Vegetable prices experienced a month-on-month decline but a year-on-year increase, influenced by weather conditions affecting supply [27][39]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks increased by 1.06% month-on-month, and the futures index rose by 0.99%. Year-to-date, the spot index has increased by 0.42% while the futures index has decreased by 10.18% [30][40]. - PET chip prices rose month-on-month, contributing to the cost increase in soft drinks [30][40].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the essential consumer goods sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [1]. Core Insights - Wholesale prices of Baijiu have mostly stabilized, with specific brands showing varied price changes. For instance, the price of Feitian Moutai (case) is 1600 yuan, down by 50 yuan from last month, while the price of Wuliangye has increased by 20 yuan to 820 yuan [3][38]. - Discounts on liquid milk have significantly increased, while discounts on seasoning and soft drink products have narrowed compared to the end of November. The average discount rate for seasonings rose from 85.9% to 87.1%, and for soft drinks from 85.6% to 86.7% [5][17][35]. Summary by Sections Baijiu Pricing - The report details the wholesale prices of key Baijiu brands, noting that Feitian Moutai's prices have decreased by 640 yuan year-to-date compared to the previous year. Other brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao have also shown price stability or slight increases [9][38]. Discount Trends - Discounts on liquid milk products have widened, with the average discount rate dropping from 66.0% to 62.8%. In contrast, discounts on convenience foods have decreased from 95.8% to 94.8% [19][21][36]. - The report highlights that infant formula and beer products have maintained stable discount rates, with slight changes observed [18][35]. Company Ratings - The report lists several companies rated as "Outperform," including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and others, indicating strong expected performance relative to the market [1].

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.28 2025-12-29 第 52 周成交回升，北京放松限购加力稳定市场 投资要点： 票 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 行 上周地产成交回升。12 月 24 日北京进一步放宽购房条件，我们预计后续会有更多 城市跟进，从而稳定年底市场，为明年开局打好基础。 报 告 证 券 研 究 业 报 告 跟 [table_Authors] 踪 [Table_Summary] 上周大中城市成交回升。12 月 24 日，北京《关于进一步优化调整 本市房地产相关政策的通知》，放宽非京籍家庭购房条件，同时支 持多子女家庭住房需求。受此影响，上周房地产成交继续回升。我 们判断后续会有更多城市跟进，有助于稳定年底市场，为明年开局 打好基础。 上周大中城市新房成交环比继续回升：2025 年第 52 周 30 大中城市 新房成交面积为 300 万平，环比前一周 32.1%，同比 2024 年-22.7%。 其中一线城市销售面积 54 万平，环比前一周 3.6%，同比 2024 年 -38%。二线城市销售面积 192 万平，环比前一周 50.99%，同比 2024 年- ...

Group 1: U.S. Macro Overview - The U.S. real GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.3% in Q3, significantly exceeding market expectations of 3.3%, with a nominal growth rate of 8.2% [1][5][30] - Consumer spending accelerated to 3.5%, driven by robust real expenditure on goods (+3.1%) and services (+3.7%), contributing 2.4 percentage points to overall growth [1][9][32] - Trade provided a significant boost, with exports surging by 8.8% and imports falling by 4.7%, resulting in net exports contributing 1.6 percentage points to growth [1][9][32] Group 2: Consumer Behavior Insights - Despite strong GDP growth driven by private consumption, the Consumer Sentiment Index hit a new low, indicating a divergence between weak confidence and strong consumption [2][15][32] - Spending is not limited to affluent groups; middle- and lower-income households have not significantly curtailed expenditures, partly due to expectations for future income growth and the expansion of "Buy Now, Pay Later" financial services [2][16][32] - The top 10% of income earners contributed 49.2% of total consumption, highlighting an uneven economic growth structure [2][15] Group 3: Employment and Labor Market Dynamics - The U.S. labor force participation rate began to rise modestly in Q3, with supply-side measures potentially encouraging more workers to enter the market [2][19][32] - Annualized wage growth for production and nonsupervisory workers was 1.6%, suggesting potential for supply-side-led growth [2][19][32] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with questions about whether this is driven by demand-side or supply-side factors [2][19] Group 4: Interest Rate and Investment Trends - Interest-rate-sensitive sectors are showing weakness, with non-residential and residential investment declining for several consecutive quarters [2][21][32] - The onset of a rate-cutting cycle and relevant tax legislation may provide some recovery in 2026 [2][21][32] - AI-related investment continues to rise, supporting nearly all capital expenditure growth, although other fixed asset investments have been declining [2][12][32] Group 5: Major Asset Class Implications - The data release is positive for U.S. equities, particularly cyclical sectors, with future gains expected to remain earnings-driven [3][31][32] - U.S. Treasury yields are likely to trend moderately lower, but concerns about the new Fed Chair's independence may limit the downside for yields [3][31][32] - The U.S. Dollar Index may face short-term weakness due to uncertainty surrounding the new Fed leadership, but fundamental resilience should support a medium-to-long-term rebound [3][31][32]

宽松预期、供给紧张、地缘风险等多方面因素共同推升金银铜等金属价格连续创下 新高，人民币汇率在企业结汇潮的推动下破 7。关注美联储主席最终提名的揭晓。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 全球大类资产表现： 美国经济： 欧洲经济： 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.29 2025-12-29 金银铜续创新高，人民币汇率破 7 ——海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 周 研 究 报 告 报 证 券 上周（2025.12.22-2025.12.26），全球大类资产价格中，主要经 济体股市上涨。其中，日经 225 指数上涨 2.5%，上证指数上涨 1.9%，新兴市场股票指数上涨 1.7%，标普 500 指数上涨 1.4%， 发达市场股票指数上涨 1.1%，恒生指数上涨 0.5%。 大宗商品普遍上涨。其中，COMEX 铜上涨 6.7%，伦敦金现上涨 4.4%，南华商品指数上涨 4.0%，标普-高盛商品指数上涨 1.6%， IPE 布油期货上涨 0.4%。 债市方面，10 年期美债收益率及中债总全价指数较前一周维持 不变，国内 10Y 国债 ...