[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 14 Jul 2025 香港中国非银行金融 Hong Kong China (Overseas) Non-Bank Financials 一文梳理香港稳定币监管框架、产业链和相关标的 Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulatory Regime and Investment Opportunities Ling Tan ling.ml.tan@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件 稳定币发行商与分销商盈利模式清晰、更可能整合产业链资源。从盈利模式的成熟度来看，稳定币发行商与分销 商（包括虚拟资产交易平台、持牌券商及虚拟银行）的商业路径最为清晰：发行商通过储备资产利息与运营成本 的差额实现盈利，分销商则依托交易手续费、稳定币分销分成、staking 等获得稳定收益。 稳定币产业链各环节的价值协同效应显著。我们预计，稳定币发行商与分销商, 未来更可能整 ...

研究报告 Research Report [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 14 Jul 2025 锦欣生殖 Jinxin Fertility (1951 HK) 更新报告： 晚育、中美政策红利有望改善需求和支付端 Delayed Childbearing and China, U.S. Policy Benefits are Expected to Improve Demand and Payment Capacity [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus 国内辅助生殖需求有望迎来拐点，政策红利逐步释放。中国平均 生育年龄已接近 30 岁，高龄产妇占比持续提升，对辅助生殖技术 需求显著增加。2023-2025 年辅助生殖纳入医保从区域试点扩展至 全国，政策落地后需求释放可期。同时，我们认为行业供给侧格 局趋稳，牌照发放收紧，公司作为民营辅助生殖龙头，有望通过 三代试管婴儿牌照等技术优势和案例积累，优先承接增量需求。 海外业务增长强劲，政策利好加码。公司的美国业务为海外核 心，2024 年取卵周期约 4,548 例，同比增长 1 ...

Price Trends - June CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a return to positive growth after four months of negative figures[7] - June PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline continuing to expand compared to the previous month[7] - Core CPI rose to 0.7% year-on-year, the highest in nearly 14 months, supported by the "trade-in" policy[14] Consumer Behavior - The "trade-in" subsidy policy has been a significant factor in supporting durable goods prices, leading to a slight recovery in core CPI[7] - Food prices saw a marginal improvement, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 0.7% month-on-month, better than seasonal trends[12] - Service-related prices remained weak, indicating limited progress in the recovery of household balance sheets[7] Economic Risks - The ongoing uncertainty in the real estate market poses risks to economic stability[3] - External pressures, including tariff issues and uncertain foreign demand, continue to affect the economy[30] - The potential overspending of future consumption demand due to the "trade-in" policy could lead to economic challenges[30]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Nike, Midea Group, JD Group, Gree Electric, Anta Sports, Haier Smart Home, and others, while Lulu Lemon is rated as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that as the earnings season approaches, stock price volatility is expected to increase due to expectation gaps [4][21]. - The gambling sector has shown strong performance, driven by higher-than-expected visitor numbers in Macau, leading to upward revisions in market expectations for monthly GGR and EBITDA [5][12]. - The report notes that most sectors are currently valued below their historical averages over the past five years, indicating potential investment opportunities [8][16]. Sector Performance Review - Weekly performance rankings show Gambling > Luxury Goods > U.S. Hotel > Domestic Sportswear > Domestic Cosmetics > Daily Necessities > Overseas Sportswear > Overseas Cosmetics > Credit Card > Snacks > Gold Jewelry > Pet, with the Gambling sector outperforming the MSCI China index [10][21]. - Monthly performance also favors the Gambling sector, followed by U.S. Hotel and Luxury Goods, while Domestic Cosmetics and Pet sectors experienced negative growth [22]. - Year-to-date performance indicates Gold Jewelry leading, followed by Domestic Cosmetics and Overseas Cosmetics, with the Overseas Sportswear sector showing negative growth [23]. Valuation Analysis - The report provides a detailed valuation analysis, indicating that many sectors, including Overseas Sportswear and Domestic Sportswear, are trading below their historical PE averages, suggesting potential upside [8][16]. - Specific expected PE ratios for 2025 are provided, with Overseas Sportswear at 34.4x (55% of its 5-year average), Domestic Sportswear at 12.6x (72%), and Gambling at 17.6x (26%) [16].

研究报告 Research Report 13 Jul 2025 餐饮、潮玩及家电行业周报 F&B, Designer Toys and Home Appliance Sector Weekly Report [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | | 评级 | | 泡泡玛特 | Outperform 现代牧业 | | | Outperform | | 安踏体育 | Outperform 九毛九 | | | Outperform | | 百威亚太 | Neutral | 澳优 | | Outperform | | 华润啤酒 | Outperform | | | | | 华住酒店集团有限 | Outperform | | | | | 公司 | | | | | | 海底捞 | Outperform | | | | | 康师傅 | Outperform | | | | | 名创优品 | Outperform | | | | | ...

Investment Focus - The report indicates that the market may enter a critical pullback after reaching new short-term highs, but the rally continued with A-shares rising 1.1% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by 0.9% due to the stablecoin theme boosting brokerages [1][7] - The financial sector's share of A-share turnover increased from 5.5% on July 1 to 12% on July 11, while the share of the CSI 2000 continued to decline [1][7] Market Dynamics - The current rally since the "Liberation Day" was initially led by new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, with Hong Kong stocks outperforming, followed by a takeover by large financials, resulting in A-shares outperforming Hong Kong [2][8] - The Hang Seng Tech Index and STAR 50 peaked in early May and are currently consolidating, awaiting new catalysts [2][8] Liquidity and Capital Flows - A-shares have shown stronger short-term liquidity compared to tightening liquidity in Hong Kong, with margin financing continuing to grow [2][8] - Southbound net inflows rebounded to HKD 26.4 billion, with significant buying in financials, semiconductors, healthcare, and staples, while trimming positions in communication services [3][10] IPO Activity - Huadian New Energy is expected to list next week, raising RMB 15.8 billion, which is significantly higher than the average weekly IPO issuance expected in 2025 [4][11] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the market remains in a wide consolidation range and may enter a near-term pullback before attempting another breakout [4][12] - If a correction phase occurs, it is recommended to avoid sectors that have rallied sharply, such as banks and innovative pharmaceuticals, while considering opportunities in large-cap blue chips during significant corrections [4][12]

策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.12 2025-07-13 对小盘风格的三个理解误区 [Table_Authors] ——兼论下半年市场风格展望 本报告导读： ①宏观流动性宽松和量化资金活跃可能均非小盘占优的本质原因，同时仅基于交易 拥挤度难起到择时效果。②近期小盘占优或源于散户资金相较机构更大规模入市， 本轮小盘行情背后是 924 以来市场风偏迅速修复但基本面未跟上。③大盘风格的整 体回归需待基本面拐点出现、机构资金重返增量，下半年契机是 AI 产业周期确认景 气向上，或宏观政策超预期加码。 投资要点： 略 研 究 海 外 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策 [Table_Report] [Table_Summary] 当前对小盘风格占优的理解存在一些偏误。误区一：宏观流动性宽 松有利于小盘？部分投资者认为，近期 AH 股小盘风格的占优源于 流动性充裕的宏观环境。事实上，回顾历史宏观流动性宽松背景下 两地市场大、小盘风格均有占优的情况发生。误区二：量化私募入 市导致小盘占优？持续有投资者将过去数年小盘股占优的行情归因 为量化私募资金大量入市。但 ...

美国：就业市场暂稳，降息预期回落 [Table_Authors] 王宇晴(分析师) 海外经济政策跟踪 登记编号 S0880525040119 本报告导读： 尽管本周美国 ADP 就业数据不及预期，但非农新增就业数据超预期回升，缓解了市 场对美国经济衰退的担忧。在就业市场仍稳，通胀不确定性尚高的情况下，美联储 多数官员对降息持谨慎态度，美联储降息时点或在四季度。 投资要点： 宏 观 周 报 宏观研究 / [Table_Date] 2025.07.13 2025-07-13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏 观 研 究 021-38676666 梁中华(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040019 [Table_Summary] 全球大类资产表现。上周（2025.6.30-2025.7.3），全球大类资产价格 中，主要经济体股市涨跌互现。其中，标普 500 指数上涨 1.7%，上 证综指上涨 1.1%，恒生指数下跌 0.9%，日经 225 下跌 0.9%，发达 市场股票指数上涨 1.3%，新兴市场股票指数上涨 0.4%。大宗商品价 格明显上升，其中，IPE ...

火电业绩加速修复，水风光或承压 [Table_Industry] 公用事业 25Q2E 业绩前瞻 股 票 研 行 业 跟 踪 报 我们认为，Q2 电价降幅缩窄、煤价降幅扩大，火电业绩将较 Q1 进一步增长，清洁 能源由于资源整体偏枯业绩或将承压。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 25 年 4-5 月，电力、热力生产和供应业实现利润总额 1148 亿元， YOY+6.6%（1-3 月 YOY+8.1%），行业利润整体不断修复。我们认为， 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 究 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.09 [Table_Invest] [table_Authors] 本报告导读： 2025-07-11 Q2 电价降幅缩窄、煤价降幅扩大，火电业绩将较 Q1 进一步增长， 清洁能源由于资源整体偏枯业绩或将承压；今年下半年或将终结"过 去两年下半年电力板块往往下跌"的现象，火电在电价市场化推进， 盈利向上，长期看好。 点火价差扩大，北方电厂业绩仍强。（1）电价：广东 25Q2 月协均 价 0.374 元/度，同比-0.046 元/度（Q1 同比-0. ...

wo[Table_Title] Research Report 11 Jul 2025 中国电子 China (Overseas) Technology 推理力跃升 10 倍，理论性能对标 GPT-5 与 Claude 4 Opus Reasoning power surges 10x, with theoretical performance on par with GPT-5 and Claude 4 Opus 姚书桥 Barney Yao 吴叡霖 Louis Ng barney.sq.yao@htisec.com louis.yl.ng@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] Flash Analysis [Table_summary] 事件： 2025 年 7 月 9 日，xAI 正式发布其最新旗舰大模型 Grok 4，并于北京时间 7 月 10 日上午 11 点举行全球直播发布 会。该模型在 xAI 自研的 Colossus 超级计算机上训练，跳过 3.5 版本，直接命名为 Grok 4。相较前代，Grok 4 在推 理性能、多模态能力和上下文处理能力上均实现跃升。Grok 4 现已开放 ...