商保创新药目录呼之欲出，内需市场有望迎来明显改善，持续推荐创新药及产业链。 投资要点： 利好不断，持续推荐创新药及产业链 [Table_Industry] 医药 ——HTI 医药 2025 年 7 月月报 [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 本报告导读： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 行 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.02 [Table_Invest] 业 月 报 证 券 研 究 [table_Authors] 2025-07-03 [Table_Summary] 利好不断，持续推荐创新药及产业链。维持以下 A 股标的优于大市 评级并将其纳入 HTI 医药 2025 年 7 月月度组合：恒瑞医药、科伦药 业、华东医药、药明康德、凯莱英、泰格医药、惠泰医疗。维持以 下 H 股标的优于大市评级：科伦博泰生物、翰森制药、信达生物、 药明合联、映恩生物、百济神州，相关标的：药明康德、康哲药业。 商保创新药目录呼之欲出，内需市场有望迎来明显改善。经国务院 同意，7 月 1 日国家医保局、国家卫健委联合发布《支持创新药高 质量发展的若干措施》，重点提出 ...

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June 2025 is 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[4] - In June, 11 out of 21 surveyed industries are in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 industries compared to last month[6] - Large enterprises' PMI is 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, while small enterprises' PMI is 47.3%, down 2.0 percentage points[11] Supply and Demand - The production index and new orders index are at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points[15] - The supply and demand index has rebounded, aligning with seasonal trends, with certain industries like food and beverage showing expansion[15] - Non-metal mineral products and black metal smelting industries continue to contract due to insufficient end demand from the real estate sector[15] Price Index and Procurement - The main raw material purchase price index and factory price index are at 48.4% and 46.2%, both rising by 1.5 percentage points[20] - The procurement index has increased to 50.2%, up 2.6 percentage points, indicating a rise in enterprise procurement activity[21] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, indicating stability[24] - The construction sector's business activity index is 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, showing a seasonal rebound but with notable sub-sector differentiation[26] Risks - External disturbances and changes in real estate demand pose risks to the overall economic outlook[30]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it [27]. Core Insights - The NEV sector in China is experiencing intense competition, with performance among major manufacturers becoming increasingly divergent. The focus is expected to shift from price wars to quality and service upgrades as regulatory scrutiny tightens [8][16]. - BYD's June sales reached 383,000 units, a 12% year-on-year increase, while Geely sold 236,000 units, up 42% year-on-year. Both companies are adjusting their annual targets upwards due to strong first-half performance [9][10]. - Leapmotor achieved record sales of 48,000 units in June, marking a 139% year-on-year increase, while Li Auto and Xiaomi saw month-on-month declines in sales [11][14]. - NIO's wholesale sales were 25,000 units in June, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, but the company faces challenges from competitors in the same price segment [15][16]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - BYD's first-half sales totaled 2.146 million units, achieving 39% of its annual target, while Geely's first-half sales reached 1.409 million units, with 47% of its revised target already met [9][10]. - Leapmotor's cumulative deliveries for the first half were 222,000 units, and it is expected to maintain strong sales momentum with new product launches [11]. - Li Auto's June deliveries were 36,000 units, down 24% year-on-year, while XPeng delivered 35,000 units, marking a 224% year-on-year increase [13][14]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a shift in competition dynamics, with companies focusing on service upgrades and technological advancements rather than aggressive pricing strategies due to regulatory pressures [8][16]. - The performance of various brands indicates a competitive landscape where established players like BYD and Geely are facing challenges from emerging brands like Leapmotor and NIO [15][16]. Future Outlook - The second half of the year is expected to see continued volatility in sales as new models are launched and companies adapt to stricter regulations. Brands that can offer better value and brand equity are likely to outperform [16].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company with a target price of 59.31 CNY, representing a 22% upside from the current price of 50.29 CNY [1][11][16]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning from a leading express delivery service to a comprehensive logistics provider, leveraging its strong operational capabilities and extensive logistics network to maintain a competitive edge in the high-end market [1][18]. - The report highlights the company's ability to reduce costs through resource integration and operational transformation, which has led to a steady improvement in profitability [1][3]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth driven by high demand in the logistics sector, with projected revenues of 318.56 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a 12% year-on-year increase [9][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 258.41 billion CNY in 2023, 284.42 billion CNY in 2024, 318.56 billion CNY in 2025, 349.37 billion CNY in 2026, and 376.84 billion CNY in 2027, with respective growth rates of -3.4%, 10.1%, 12.0%, 9.7%, and 7.9% [3][9]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 8.23 billion CNY in 2023, 10.17 billion CNY in 2024, 11.84 billion CNY in 2025, 13.64 billion CNY in 2026, and 15.34 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 33.4%, 23.5%, 16.5%, 15.2%, and 12.4% respectively [3][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.65 CNY in 2023, 2.04 CNY in 2024, 2.37 CNY in 2025, 2.73 CNY in 2026, and 3.07 CNY in 2027 [3][9]. Business Diversification - The company has diversified its operations from express delivery to a comprehensive logistics model, which includes express, freight, cold chain, and supply chain services, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.8% in emerging business segments from 2019 to 2024 [1][40][44]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong market position, with a 64% market share in high-end express delivery and 51% in mid-to-high-end economic delivery as of 2024 [1][26][28]. Cost Optimization and Profitability - The company has successfully implemented cost reduction strategies, achieving over 3.8 billion CNY in cost savings since 2021, with a projected gross margin of 13.8% in 2025 [1][3][50]. - The report indicates that the company's net profit margin is expected to improve, with a return on equity (ROE) forecasted to reach 11.0% in 2024, up from 8.9% in 2023 [3][51].

Investment Focus - The report maintains a cautious overall outlook while recommending selective stock picks in the essential consumer sector, highlighting companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [1][6][9] Industry Overview - In June 2025, six out of eight tracked essential consumer sectors showed positive growth, with beer (+3.4%), soft drinks (+2.8%), condiments (+2.5%), dining (+2.4%), dairy (+1.6%), and frozen foods (+1.4%) experiencing growth. The sectors facing declines were low-end and mid-range liquor, with declines of -13.3% and -3.0% respectively [3][8][9] - The report notes that the new prohibition order and adverse weather conditions have significantly impacted essential consumer sectors, particularly dining and related products [3][6][9] Price Trends - In June, wholesale prices for liquor showed a downward trend, with Kweichow Moutai's prices dropping by 190 yuan for both whole and bottled products compared to the previous month. Other liquor brands also experienced price declines [4][21][23] Revenue Forecasts - The revenue for the high-end liquor sector in June was 296 billion yuan, down 3.0% year-on-year, while the low-end liquor sector generated 130 billion yuan, down 13.3% year-on-year. The overall revenue for the beer sector was 185 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.4% increase year-on-year [9][10][11] - The report predicts that the essential consumer sector will continue to face challenges in the upcoming months due to the ongoing effects of the prohibition order [6][9] Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on stocks with high dividends and improved fundamentals, specifically mentioning companies like China Feihe, Yili, Mengniu Dairy, and Wanzhou International as potential investment opportunities [6][9][19]

wo[Table_Title] Research Report 2 Jul 2025 中国互联网 China (Overseas) Internet 淘宝 500 亿补贴加码闪购，阿里抢滩即时零售主战场 Taobao Injects RMB 50bn into Flash Sales as Alibaba Races to Dominate Instant Retail 姚书桥 Barney Yao 吴叡霖 Louis Ng barney.sq.yao@htisec.com louis.yl.ng@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] Flash Analysis [Table_summary] 事件： 2025 年 7 月 2 日，淘宝闪购宣布在未来 12 个月内投入高达 500 亿元补贴，用于支持商家运营并激发消 费者活力。这一补贴涵盖商品补贴、佣金减免、配送补贴等多个维度，并通过大额红包、免单卡、定向 优惠等形式直接触达用户。 点评： 阿里打通多端资源，构建全场景即时生活服务闭环。联动生态闭环效应方面，除闪购外，阿里同步推动与飞猪、 盒马、支付宝生活服务频道的流量协同，试图将当日购物延伸为 ...

2025年7月2日 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券 研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请 参阅附录。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer) 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券 研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请 参阅附录。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer) SMR实操图 Equity – Asia Research 海通国际全球核裂变与SMR发展趋势与新机遇 杨斌 Bin Yang, bin.yang@htisec ...

研究报告 Research Report 1 Jul 2025 香港医疗 Hong Kong Health Care 2025 年 7 月港股金股：加强创新药产业链的配置 Healthcare Industry Weekly Report (June 23, 2025 - June 27, 2025): Overall stock performance stabilized; Internet healthcare/medical services sector lead this week. (29 Jun 2025) July 2025 Hong Kong Stock Market Top Picks: Strengthen Allocation in the Innovative Industry Chain [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 股票名称 评级 股票名称 评级 京东健康 Outperform 百奥赛图 Outperform 药明生物 Outperform 方达控股 Outperform 中国生物制药 Outperform ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on Alibaba, JD.com, and Meituan, while holding a neutral stance on Pinduoduo [8][26]. Core Insights - The 2025 618 shopping festival demonstrated stable growth in China's e-commerce market, with total sales reaching 855.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%, and instant retail sales growing by 18.7% to 29.6 billion yuan [1][17]. - The simplification of promotional rules across platforms significantly enhanced the shopping experience, with 85% of consumers finding the process smoother than in previous years [5][22]. - AI technology is increasingly empowering the e-commerce ecosystem, leading to cost reductions and efficiency improvements for merchants, with Alibaba's AI tools reportedly increasing ROI by over 30% [7][25]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Performance - During the 2025 618 period, GMV growth rates for major platforms were as follows: JD.com at 17%, Douyin at 15%, Tmall at 4%, and Pinduoduo at 9% [2][17]. - JD.com saw a significant increase in user engagement, with order numbers exceeding 2.2 billion and daily active users reaching a historical high [2][18]. Promotional Strategies - Platforms like Taobao and Tmall introduced direct discounts, moving away from complex promotional rules, which improved consumer satisfaction [5][22]. - Instant retail emerged as a key growth area, with Meituan Flash Delivery achieving remarkable sales increases, indicating a shift towards immediate consumption models [5][23]. AI Integration - The report highlights the comprehensive application of AI in e-commerce, with tools that enhance marketing efficiency and customer engagement, leading to a transition from manual to intelligence-driven business models [7][25]. - JD.com provided merchants with free AI marketing tools, significantly reducing operational costs and improving conversion rates [7][25]. Market Outlook - The narrowing gap between GMV and parcel volume growth reflects improved transaction quality, although there are concerns about weaker consumption in June due to early promotional activities [8][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical sector, specifically recommending innovative drugs and devices [1][5][26]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the sustained high prosperity in innovative drugs, recommending companies such as Jiangsu Heng Rui Medicine, 3SBio, Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical, and Huadong Medicine with an "Outperform" rating. It also highlights Biopharma/Biotech companies with promising pipelines and increasing performance, maintaining an "Outperform" rating for companies like PATEO, Innovent Biologics, BeiGene, CSPC Innovation Pharmaceutical, and Acrobiosystems [5][26]. - The report notes that the A-share pharmaceutical sector slightly underperformed the market in the fourth week of June 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.9% and the SW Pharmaceutical and Biological Technology Index rising by 1.6% [27][28]. - The report identifies sub-sectors such as Medical service (+2.9%), Medical equipment (+2.1%), and pharmaceutical commerce (+2.1%) as performing relatively well during the same period [13][27]. Summary by Sections Continuous Recommendation of Innovative Drugs and Devices - The report continues to recommend innovative drugs and devices, highlighting the high prosperity in this area and maintaining "Outperform" ratings for several key companies [5][26]. Performance of A-Shares Pharmaceutical Sector - In the fourth week of June 2025, the A-share pharmaceutical sector slightly underperformed the broader market, with a relative premium rate of 78.33% compared to all A-shares [15][27]. Performance of Hong Kong and U.S. Pharmaceutical Sectors - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector also slightly underperformed the market, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index rising by 2.9% and the Biological Technology Index by 2.2% [23][28]. - In the U.S., the S&P 500 Healthcare Select Sector rose by 1.5%, underperforming the S&P 500, which rose by 3.4% during the same period [29].