[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 1 Feb 2026 中国策略 China Strategy 海通国际 2026 年 2 月金股 HTI February 2026 Top Picks 周林泓 Amber Zhou amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com 2 Feb 2026 3 [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | 行业组 | 分析师 | 行业 | Top Pick | 看好理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | Google 被 AI 搜索压制的估值已经在逐步释放：1）通过 AI Overview | | | | | | 过渡 + AI mode 解锁交互式 AI 搜索功能，守护搜索市场，未来广告 | | | | | | 业务保持良好能见度；2）Google TPU 订单激增，Meta OpenAI 等大 | | | | | Alphabet (GOOGL US) | 量订购 TPU V7 系列。预计云业务全年 30%+增速，并且通过规模效 | | | | | | ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 30 Jan 2026 石药集团 CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK) 长效多肽产品组合授权阿斯利康，加速全球创新药布局 Long-Acting Peptide Product Portfolio Out-licensed to AZ, Accelerating Global Innovative Drug Deployment 孟科含 Kehan Meng 聂照亿 Zhaoyi Nie 3）双方还将依托该等平台就另外四个新增项目开展合作。 kh.meng@htisec.com john.zy.nie@htisec.com 交易对价 [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件 石药创新（新诺威 300765.SZ，石药集团的控股子公司）的控股子公司巨石生物及石药集团、中奇制药（石药集团 的全资控股子公司）共同与阿斯利康签署《战略合作与授权协议》，将与阿斯利康 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides various investment ratings for companies in the consumer staples sector, with several companies rated as "Outperform" and one as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates that price hikes in the consumer staples sector are weaker than expected, while costs remain low [1]. - The monitored spot cost indices for six consumer goods categories have declined, while futures cost indices have primarily increased [34]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index decreased by 1.87% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 3.15%. Year-to-date, the spot index has changed by -0.6% and the futures index by +1.81% [35]. - Glass prices have shown a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% for spot prices and an increase of 3.4% for futures prices [35]. Condiments - The spot cost index decreased by 1.37% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 3.03%. Year-to-date changes are -0.42% for spot and +2.23% for futures [36]. - Soybean prices have decreased by 2.4% month-on-month for spot prices, while futures prices increased by 6.7% [36]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index decreased by 1.93% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 1.58%. Year-to-date changes are -0.43% for spot and +1.68% for futures [37]. - Fresh milk prices rose to 3.04 yuan/kg, with corn prices increasing by 0.4% month-on-month [37]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index decreased by 0.51% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 3.31%. Year-to-date changes are +0.79% for spot and +3.46% for futures [38]. - Palm oil prices increased by 9.6% month-on-month for spot prices [38]. Frozen Food - The spot cost index decreased by 1.74% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 0.61%. Year-to-date changes are -1.44% for spot and -0.14% for futures [39]. - Vegetable prices fell by 1.8% month-on-month [39]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index decreased by 3.71% month-on-month, while the futures index remained unchanged. Year-to-date changes are -1.12% for spot and -0.19% for futures [40]. - PET chip prices increased by 5.4% month-on-month [40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Sands China [2][16]. Core Insights - The company achieved net revenue of USD 2.058 billion in Q4 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 16.2%. Adjusted property EBITDA reached USD 608 million, up 6.5% year-over-year, with an adjusted property EBITDA margin of 29.5% [4][12]. - The performance of the company's properties varied, with The Venetian and Plaza showing net revenue increases both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter, while The Parisian and Sands underperformed [13][14]. - The company's gaming gross revenue increased significantly to USD 2.02 billion, up 23.1% year-over-year, driven by growth in VIP and premium mass segments [5][14]. - The adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 29.5%, down 2.7 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to a shift in business structure and rising operating costs [6][15]. - The company's market share improved to 24.4% in Q3 2025, up from 23.7% in Q3 2024, indicating a positive trend in competitive positioning [7]. Financial Projections - For FY 2026 and 2027, net revenue is projected to be USD 7.937 billion and USD 8.363 billion, respectively, with gaming gross revenue expected to reach USD 7.652 billion and USD 8.082 billion [16]. - The adjusted property EBITDA is forecasted to be USD 2.483 billion in 2026 and USD 2.643 billion in 2027, with corresponding adjusted property EBITDA margins of 31.3% and 31.6% [16].

研究报告 Research Report 29 Jan 2026 新东方-S New Oriental (9901 HK) 超预期并上调指引；降本增效战略持续显效 Beat and Raise guidance; efficiency improvement strategy is yielding results [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$46.04 目标价 HK$52.00 HTI ESG 5.0-5.0-5.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$75.29bn / US$9.65bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$19.47mn 发行股票数目 1,635mn 自由流通股 (%) 88% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$47.24-HK$32.85 注：现价 HK$46.04 为 2026 年 01 月 29 日收盘价 资料来源： F ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the consumer staples sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [1]. Core Insights - There is an intensified divergence among mid-to-high-end baijiu products, with no discount contraction observed in food and beverage categories [1]. - The report highlights that the wholesale prices of various baijiu brands have shown stability or slight changes, with some brands experiencing price increases while others remain flat or decrease [3][4][35]. - Discounts on representative products in condiments, liquid milk, and soft drinks have widened compared to the end of December, indicating a shift in pricing strategies [19][32]. Summary by Relevant Sections Baijiu Pricing - Guizhou Moutai's wholesale prices for Feitian (case and single bottle) and Moutai 1935 are reported at 1600, 1580, and 630 yuan respectively, with changes of 0, -10, and -10 yuan compared to last month [35]. - Wuliangye's eighth-generation price is 830 yuan, reflecting a +10 yuan increase from the previous month [35]. - Luzhou Laojiao's Guojiao 1573 remains at 850 yuan, unchanged from last month [35]. Discount Trends - The average discount rate for condiments decreased from 87.1% to 85.0%, while liquid milk discounts fell from 62.8% to 61.4% [19][22]. - In contrast, discounts for beer, infant formula, and convenience foods remained stable, with beer discounts slightly increasing from 80.3% to 80.7% [20][22][32]. Company Ratings - The report lists several companies with an "Outperform" rating, including: - Guizhou Moutai - Wuliangye - Luzhou Laojiao - Qingdao Beer - China Feihe - Others [1].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed outlook for the Japanese consumer sector, with essential goods remaining resilient while discretionary spending shows signs of weakness [1]. Core Insights - The Japanese consumer sector in December exhibited three main characteristics: essential goods maintained resilience, discretionary spending weakened, and industry consolidation accelerated [3][15]. - Consumer confidence index in December recorded 36.2, slightly down from 36.4 in November, indicating a marginal decline in household consumption willingness [2][9]. - The core CPI in December rose by 2.4% year-on-year, showing a significant drop from November, while the CCCPI increased by 2.9%, indicating persistent high inflation levels [2][11]. Summary by Sections Macro - Inflation is slowing down, and the yen has appreciated significantly. The consumer confidence index in December was 36.2, slightly lower than November's 36.4 and below market expectations [2][9]. - The willingness to purchase durable goods decreased significantly, reflecting a marginal weakening in household consumption tendencies [9]. - Actual wages in November contracted by 2.8% year-on-year, marking an ongoing negative growth trend for 11 consecutive months [9][11]. Industry - The consumer sector is experiencing a general slowdown in growth rates across sub-industries, with duty-free consumption continuing to weaken. Essential goods like food and daily necessities show stable demand, while discretionary items like clothing and home goods are under pressure [3][15]. - External disturbances have notably impacted retail growth, with a warm winter suppressing demand for winter goods and a reduction in holiday shopping days negatively affecting retail sales growth by approximately 2 percentage points [3][15]. - The industry is witnessing an accelerated pace of consolidation, with significant mergers and acquisitions, such as the full acquisition of Welcia by Katsuya and subsequent TOB completion by Aeon [3][15]. Essential Companies - In December, same-store sales for Aeon decreased by 0.3%, while PPIH and 711 Japan reported increases of 3.0% and 1.9%, respectively [4][18]. - The drugstore sector saw Matsukiyo Cocokara's same-store sales decline by 4.6%, while Katsuya's increased by 0.3% [21][19]. - The beverage sector reported a 6% increase in sales for Suntory, while Asahi's sales dropped by 22% [4][22]. Discretionary Companies - In December, same-store sales for major restaurant chains like Saizeriya and Skylark increased by 18.7% and 11.0%, respectively, while clothing retailers like Uniqlo and ABC-MART saw declines of 6.6% and 0.4% [5][35]. - The overall sales for department stores in Japan fell by 1.1% year-on-year, marking the first negative growth in five years, primarily due to a warm winter and a significant drop in duty-free sales [40][41]. - The hotel sector reported a 5.1% increase in revenue, with a 86% occupancy rate, reflecting a recovery in tourism [43][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Zai Lab with a target price of HKD 35.25, indicating an expected return exceeding the market benchmark over the next 12-18 months [2][19]. Core Insights - Zai Lab is projected to achieve product net revenue of USD 465 million in FY25, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.5%. The core product, efgartigimod, is expected to generate USD 97.96 million, with a gross profit margin of 61.0% [3][16]. - The management emphasizes a dual-engine strategy focusing on introducing high-quality overseas products for commercialization in China and leveraging a cross-border R&D platform for efficient global market development [4][17]. - Despite a downward revision in revenue guidance for 2025 and a delay in profitability targets, the company has a robust portfolio with eight products approved in China and several differentiated global assets in its pipeline [4][17]. Financial Performance - Revenue forecasts for FY25-FY27 have been adjusted to USD 465 million, USD 501 million, and USD 717 million, respectively. Net loss estimates for the same period are revised to USD 180 million, USD 159 million, and USD 55 million [10][19]. - R&D expenses are expected to be USD 205 million, a decrease of 12.8% year-on-year, while SG&A expenses are projected at USD 284 million, down 5.0% [3][16]. Clinical Development Pipeline - Zocilurtatug (DLL3 ADC) is set to initiate three registrational clinical trials by the end of 2026, targeting small cell lung cancer and neuroendocrine carcinoma [5][21]. - Several early-stage products, including ZL-1503 for atopic dermatitis and ZL-6201 for various solid tumors, are anticipated to contribute to long-term global value [6][9][21].

wo[Table_Title] Research Report 29 Jan 2026 中国电子 China (Overseas) Technology 全球科技业绩快报：希捷 FY26Q2 Global Tech Earnings Snapshot: Seagate FY26Q2 姚书桥 Barney Yao 吕小潼 Xiaotong Lyu barney.sq.yao@htisec.com xt.lyu@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件 Seagate FY26Q2 业绩表现：营业收入为 28.25 亿美元，同比增长 22%、环比增长 7%；non-GAAP 毛利率为 42.2%（环 比提升 210bp），经营利润率为 31.9%，EPS 为 3.11 美元。本季度 HDD 总容量出货达 190EB，同比增长 26%，其中 近线（Nearline）硬盘出货 165EB，同比增长 31%。按业务划分，数据中心收入为 22.24 亿美元（ ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies involved in the DeepSeek-OCR 2 development. Core Insights - DeepSeek-OCR 2 represents a significant advancement in document understanding technology, particularly in handling complex layouts by utilizing a new visual encoder, DeepEncoder V2, which enhances the model's ability to parse text, tables, and formulas more accurately and efficiently [12][14]. - The model has achieved a score of 91.09% on the OmniDocBench v1.5 benchmark, indicating it has entered the top tier of document understanding models, with a notable improvement in reading order accuracy [14]. - The model's efficiency allows it to process complex documents with only 256 to 1120 visual tokens, significantly reducing computational load and latency for downstream applications [15]. Summary by Sections Model Upgrade and Features - The DeepSeek-OCR 2 model introduces a lightweight language model, Qwen2-500M, and a "causal flow query" mechanism that reorganizes visual tokens based on content logic, improving semantic continuity and recognition accuracy [13][14]. - The model's architecture allows for a more human-like understanding of document structure, which is crucial for processing complex documents like multi-column layouts and nested tables [12][13]. Performance Metrics - DeepSeek-OCR 2's edit-distance metric improved from 0.085 to 0.057, validating its structure-first reading approach [14]. - Compared to competitors, DeepSeek-OCR 2's performance is approaching industry leaders, with a document-parsing edit distance of 0.100, outperforming Gemini 3 Pro [14]. Real-World Applications - The model's open-source nature and moderate parameter size (3 billion) facilitate its integration into existing enterprise workflows, with potential applications in PDF-to-Markdown conversion and structured data extraction [15]. - Feedback from production environments indicates a significant reduction in text duplication rates, suggesting improved reliability in practical applications [15]. Long-Term Vision - The development of DeepSeek-OCR 2 is seen as an exploration of architectural innovation, aiming to enhance the capabilities of vision-language models and improve the generation of structured training data for large language models [16]. - The team has outlined clear iterative directions for future improvements, focusing on enhancing performance for text-dense documents [16].