周林泓 Amber Zhou 黄雨昕 Yuxin Huang amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com yx.huang@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) [Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 20 Dec 2025 中国策略 China Strategy 缩量蓄势延续，逢低布局春季行情 Volume Contraction Signals Consolidation; Buy the Dips Ahead of the Spring Rally 上周我们认为，中国市场将由反弹后期转入震荡蓄势阶段，但整体回调空间有限，仍属于逢低布局的窗口。行业 层面，我们认为内需消费获得利好支撑，在震荡环境下有望跑出相对收益。本周港股和 A 股探底回升，恒生指数跌 1.1%，恒生科技跌 2.8%，上证综指基本持平，创业板指跌 2.3%，科创 50 跌 3%；其中必需消费和非银领涨。 海外市场方面，美 CPI ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Bairong Cloud, indicating an expected relative return exceeding 10% over the next 12-18 months [14]. Core Insights - Bairong Cloud launched its ResultsCloud platform, which aims to transform the business model from "selling tools" to "selling outcomes" through the introduction of silicon-based employees, enhancing collaboration between AI and human workers [1][6]. - The company is positioned to redefine enterprise competitiveness in the digital economy, with a strategic focus on expanding its silicon-based employee ecosystem beyond the financial sector into healthcare and education by 2028 [2][3][6]. - The RaaS (Results-as-a-Service) model is highlighted as a significant shift, integrating enterprise strategies with technological advancements, moving Bairong Cloud from a tool provider to a business outcome partner [2][3][6]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - On December 18, 2025, Bairong Cloud held a conference to introduce the ResultsCloud platform, emphasizing a fundamental shift in productivity from carbon-based to silicon-based systems [1][6]. Technological Innovations - The ResultsCloud platform features a three-layer architecture: AI Infra reasoning engine, AgentOS lifecycle management, and AgentStore commercialization, significantly enhancing operational efficiency [2][6]. - Key products launched include: 1. Baiying: Customer service and marketing, improving customer satisfaction by 40% [2]. 2. Baicai: Recruitment, reducing hiring cycles to 28 days with a 5x productivity increase [2]. 3. Baijian: Cross-border legal and tax services, achieving a 90% efficiency boost and 70% cost reduction [2]. 4. Baizhi: Knowledge production, compressing cycles to 4 days with a 400% efficiency increase [2]. Strategic Vision - Bairong Cloud's three-phase strategy includes consolidating fintech advantages (2025-2026), expanding into vertical sectors (2027-2028), and becoming a global leader in silicon-based productivity (2029-2030) [2][6]. Industry Impact - The large-scale application of silicon-based employees is expected to redefine core competitiveness for enterprises, with early adopters likely to gain a significant advantage in the digital economy [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for the company, targeting a price of RMB 9.45 based on a 45x PE for 2026 [7][30]. Core Insights - The company is expected to leverage its core resources from the "Two Dams and One Gorge" to transition from sightseeing to vacation experiences, enhancing overall customer transaction values and profit levels. The planned inter-provincial cruise project is anticipated to be a new growth driver, with existing business recovery and cruise project volume increase likely to elevate profit and valuation [7][30]. - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of RMB 112 million, RMB 153 million, and RMB 206 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with EPS of RMB 0.16, RMB 0.21, and RMB 0.28 [7][30]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline to RMB 741 million in 2024, followed by a gradual increase to RMB 1,326 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.1% from 2025 to 2027 [2][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to show significant growth, with a forecast of RMB 130 million in 2023, declining slightly to RMB 118 million in 2024, and then increasing to RMB 206 million by 2027, indicating a robust recovery trajectory [2][5]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 31.35% in 2024 to 33.82% in 2027, driven by increased operational efficiency and higher-value offerings [10]. Demand Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 286 million from tourism services, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.20%. The number of cruise passengers reached 1.25 million, a 10.96% increase compared to the previous year, indicating strong demand recovery [31][14]. - Factors contributing to this growth include enhanced marketing efforts, increased product offerings, and improved operational capacity, which have collectively boosted market recognition and customer engagement [14][31]. Supply Analysis - The regulatory environment has tightened, with the Yangtze River Authority implementing strict controls on new inter-provincial passenger ship transport enterprises, which stabilizes competition and enhances supply constraints [32][20]. - The company plans to construct and operate four large leisure cruise ships, with the first two expected to launch in June and December 2026, and the remaining two in June 2028. This initiative aims to capitalize on the controlled supply environment and enhance profit flexibility [33][21]. Conclusion - The report highlights the company's strategic positioning within the tourism sector, emphasizing its potential for growth through innovative offerings and regulatory advantages. The combination of a solid customer base, new cruise projects, and a favorable market environment positions the company for significant future profitability and valuation enhancement [7][30][12].

Economic Outlook - The US economy is in a marginal downtrend, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, and potentially 2-3 more cuts in 2026[1] - The probability of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve is approximately 87% according to CME FedWatch data[35] - Japan's central bank is expected to raise interest rates in December, with market expectations for a rate hike probability rising to 80%[36] Market Performance - Global commodity prices mostly increased, with the COMEX copper rising by 3.33% and the S&P-Goldman commodity index up by 1.94%[6] - Emerging market stock indices rose by 1.30%, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.31%[6] - The US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 12 basis points compared to the previous week[6] Key Economic Indicators - In September 2025, US industrial output increased by 1.16% year-on-year but decreased by 0.18% month-on-month[9] - US durable goods orders saw a year-on-year growth of 6.47%, down from 6.67% previously[9] - The Eurozone GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 was 1.4% year-on-year, slightly down from 1.6%[24] Inflation and Consumer Sentiment - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 53.3 in December from 51.0 previously[14] - The one-year inflation expectation from Michigan University decreased to 4.1% from 4.5%[18] - Eurozone CPI increased slightly to 2.2% in November, up from 2.1%[26]

内需主导，提质增效 ——2025 年 12 月政治局会议学习体会 观 本报告导读： 本次会议保持了"更加积极有为"的宏观政策定调，同时更加注重"提质增效"，扩大 内需和民生仍是重点任务，关注后续中央经济工作会议具体政策部署。 投资要点： 具体而言，2026 年经济工作或有以下部署： 宏 观 快 报 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 研 究 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.19 2025-12-19 [Table_Summary] 中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作。 会议通稿内容精炼，奠定了"内需主导，提质增效"的总基调，更多 具体政策的增量信息需关注后续召开的中央经济工作会议。总体来 看，会议通稿体现出三大特征： 一是，内需置于工作任务首位，"坚持内需主导"也是对"十五五"规 划建议提出"促进形成更多由内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济 发展模式"的有效落实。具体政策抓手有望在 12 月中央经济工作会 议中披露更多信息。 二是，宏观政策保持"更加积极有为"的定调，同时更加注重提升政 策有效性。政策取向上，货币政策 ...

Group 1: CPI Insights - In November 2025, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, while the PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year[7] - The core CPI remained high at 1.2% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month, marking the highest level since February 2024[10] - Food prices contributed positively to the CPI, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 7.2% month-on-month, while pork prices fell by 2.2%[8] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, but the year-on-year decline expanded to 2.2%[15] - Upstream prices were supported by rising global non-ferrous metal prices, while the impact of "anti-involution" policies continued to manifest in certain industries[15] - Coal mining and non-ferrous mining sectors led the PPI increase, with coal prices rising by 4.1% month-on-month[15] Group 3: Policy and Market Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and recent central economic meetings emphasized the importance of service consumption, indicating a potential shift in price recovery drivers towards service CPI in 2026[14] - The effectiveness of fiscal subsidies and anti-involution policies is expected to continue influencing market dynamics, with a focus on core service CPI recovery elasticity[14] - Risks remain regarding the uncertainty in the real estate market and the potential inadequacy of policy measures[4]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points (BP) on December 10, 2025, which was in line with expectations, but internal divisions within the Fed have increased, with 3 out of 12 FOMC voting members opposing the decision[2] - The Fed's economic projections for GDP growth from 2025 to 2028 have been revised upward, while the unemployment rate forecast for 2027 has been revised downward, indicating a more optimistic outlook on the economy and inflation[2] - The Fed announced a technical expansion of its balance sheet by purchasing $40 billion in short-term Treasury securities starting in December, aimed at addressing short-term market pressures[2] Group 2: Future Projections - The Fed is expected to implement 2-3 additional rate cuts in 2026 due to structural changes in the labor market and the upcoming change in Fed leadership, which may influence the pace of rate cuts[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is projected to initially decline to a low of 3.5%-3.8% in mid-2026 before rising again, reflecting the economic impact of preventive rate cuts[3] - U.S. equities, particularly in technology and interest-sensitive sectors like real estate and banking, are expected to receive continued support from lower interest rates and improved economic conditions[3] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - There is a risk that tariffs could lead to higher-than-expected inflation in the U.S., potentially triggering a spiral of inflation expectations and actual inflation[3] - The upcoming Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariffs presents an uncertainty that could impact economic forecasts and Fed policy decisions[3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the Southeast Asia consumer sector, but it indicates that most consumer sectors are underperforming the index, suggesting a cautious outlook for investments in this area [1]. Core Insights - Inflation in Southeast Asia is described as moderate and uneven, with varying impacts across different countries. Indonesia's CPI increased by 2.72%, Thailand's decreased by 0.49%, Vietnam's rose by 3.25%, and the Philippines saw a 1.5% increase, indicating a controlled inflation environment conducive to consumer recovery [3][12][22][37]. - Consumer confidence is recovering in Indonesia, with the consumer confidence index rising to 124.0, reflecting optimism about economic prospects. In Thailand, the consumer confidence index increased to 50.9, driven by government stimulus and improved trade conditions [17][25]. - Retail sales in Indonesia and Vietnam show robust growth, with Indonesia's food and beverage retail index growing by 8.2% year-on-year, while Vietnam's retail sales increased by 7.1% [4][39]. Economic Data Summary - Indonesia's GDP growth for Q3 2025 was 5.04%, supported by strong consumer spending and investment, although it showed a slight slowdown compared to Q2 2025 [12]. - Thailand's GDP growth for Q3 2025 was 1.2%, driven by consumer spending and tourism, but overall growth remains moderate [20]. - Singapore's GDP grew by 4.2% in Q3 2025, primarily due to manufacturing and service sector recovery, indicating a stable economic environment [28]. - Vietnam's GDP growth reached 8.23% in Q3 2025, reflecting strong performance in industrial and service sectors, although challenges remain from external demand fluctuations [35]. Consumer Sector Performance - The consumer sector in Southeast Asia shows signs of resilience, with Indonesia's consumer confidence and retail sales indicating strong demand. However, the overall performance of consumer stocks has lagged behind the market index in several countries [4][11]. - In Thailand, consumer spending remains cautious, with inflation pressures being low, which may limit growth in consumer sectors [22]. - Malaysia's consumer sector is recovering, with GDP growth of 5.2% in Q3 2025, supported by domestic demand and investment [42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Huali Industrial Group [1][2][6] Core Insights - Brand orders diverged in 2025, with expectations for continued trends into 2026, but order growth is anticipated to rebound significantly [3][10] - The company is expected to see low single-digit order growth in 2025, driven primarily by brands like Adidas, New Balance, On Running, and Asics, while facing order pullbacks from Converse, Vans, and Puma due to high inventory levels [3][10] - For 2026, high-growth brands are expected to maintain strong performance, with overall order growth projected to recover to high single digits and 10% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [3][10] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 25.174 billion, RMB 27.108 billion, and RMB 29.904 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 4.9%, 7.7%, and 10.3% [6][13] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are RMB 3.388 billion, RMB 3.880 billion, and RMB 4.382 billion, with year-on-year growth of -11.8%, 14.5%, and 12.9% [6][13] Gross Margin and Capital Expenditure - The gross profit margin (GPM) is expected to improve sequentially, with forecasts of 22.1%, 23.2%, and 24.0% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][12] - Capital expenditure (Capex) is entering a downward trend, with a focus on efficiency and returns rather than aggressive capacity expansion [4][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of 81.85 RMB per share, reflecting a 5% decrease from previous estimates [4][7]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in domestic CAD software, steadily advancing its 3D product development and deepening its global presence by recruiting top talent [4][14]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 0.938 billion, 1.068 billion, and 1.235 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to be 0.061 billion, 0.084 billion, and 0.100 billion RMB [4][14]. - The company achieved a revenue growth of 5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with a notable improvement in Q3 net profit, which increased by 141% year-on-year [4][14]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023A was 828 million RMB, with projections of 888 million RMB for 2024A, 938 million RMB for 2025E, 1.068 billion RMB for 2026E, and 1.235 billion RMB for 2027E, reflecting growth rates of 37.7%, 7.3%, 5.6%, 13.9%, and 15.6% respectively [3]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A was 61 million RMB, with projections of 64 million RMB for 2024A, 61 million RMB for 2025E, 84 million RMB for 2026E, and 100 million RMB for 2027E, showing significant growth in 2023A at 922.8% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.36 RMB for 2025E, 0.50 RMB for 2026E, and 0.59 RMB for 2027E [3][4]. Business Segmentation Forecast - The company anticipates a revenue growth of 5% for self-developed software in 2025, with an increase to 13% in 2026 and 15% in 2027 [11][12]. - The entrusted development segment is expected to see a revenue growth of 10% in 2025, rebounding to 20% in 2026 and 2027 as market demand increases [11][12]. - Revenue from purchased products and other businesses is projected to maintain steady growth at 5% for 2025-2027 [11][12].