[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 29 Jun 2025 香港策略 Hong Kong Strategy [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周我们指出，尽管中期仍维持对市场的谨慎判断，但从短期看，市场再度下跌后有望探底回升，若叠加伊以冲 突缓和，风险偏好有望回升。本周恒生指数低开1%、上证综指低开0.4%，低开幅度略低于预期，随后市场强劲反 弹，恒生指数周涨3.2%、恒生科技涨4.1%，上证综指涨1.9%，创业板指大涨5.7%；美股亦同步大幅反弹并再创历史 新高。行业方面，我们认为回调充分的科技板块具备更强的反弹潜力。本周市场中，券商与科技板块表现突出， 其中港股原材料、科技与金融领涨，A股则以科技、原材料和工业板块表现最为强劲。 虽然本周市场大幅上涨，但流动性已开始出现一定扰动。港元流动性方面，回顾历史，在港元汇率触及强方兑换 保证时，金管局通常反应迅速，一般在2–3个交易日内向市场大量卖出港元。例如2020年疫情后，全球央行大幅放 水，强方保证频繁触发，特别是在2020年9月中旬至1 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 27 Jun 2025 Research Report on the Entire 618 Cycle of the Beauty Category on both Taobao/Tmall and Douyin Platforms 中国化妆品 China (A-share) Cosmetics 美妆品类 618 全周期淘系和抖音双平台调研报告 寇媛媛 Yuanyuan Kou 吴颖婕 Mindy Wu yy.kou@htisec.com mindy.yj.wu@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 本次 618 期间，淘系为美妆销售主战场但销售略低于预期，抖音美妆增速高于抖音大盘增速。淘系平台 5.13-6.20 的 GMV 略超 400 亿，同比增长超 10%，不及平台预期目标。总体淘系平台大盘增速同样不及预期，主要由于政策 调整导致爆发力减弱，去年跨店满减活动单日 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 27 Jun 2025 美国航空航天与国防 US Aerospace and National Defense 甲烷革命：价值向上游转移，重塑太空发射投资版图 The Methane Revolution: Value Shifts Upstream, Reshaping the Space Launch Investment Landscape 杨斌 Bin Yang bin.yang@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 核心观点： 全球航天发射市场正处于一场由成本结构革命所催生的、深刻且不可逆的结构性扩张周期之中。我们观 察到，市场正决定性地从过去由国家预算主导、任务周期漫长的旧范式，转向由商业资本驱动、追求高 发射频率与成本效益的新纪元。这场变革的核心催化剂是 SpaceX 凭借其可重复使用火箭技术实现的颠覆 性成本削减，其在 2024 年完成的创纪录发射次数不 ...

小米 YU7 订单火爆，供应链迎来新机遇 [Table_Industry] 汽车 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.27 2025-06-27 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 本报告导读： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 YU7 的热销有望结构性改变零部件行业景气度。 投资要点： [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 票 研 究 | 公司名称 | 代码 | 收盘价 | | EPS | | | PE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （2025/6/26） | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | 无锡振华 | 605319.SH | 35.66 | 1.51 | 2.00 | 2.42 | 14 | 18 | 15 | | 华阳集团 | 002906.SZ | 32.83 | 1.24 | 1.72 | 2.27 | 25 | 19 | 14 | | 德赛西威 | 002920.SZ | 101.92 | 3 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a strong long-term infrastructure construction demand in the U.S. and recommends focusing on companies like GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Hitachi, Mitsubishi Electric, and Schneider Electric [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing negotiations between OpenAI and Microsoft, indicating a mutually beneficial relationship despite some tensions [15] - The U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has introduced a new method for managing transmission system capacity, aiming to release more capacity without costly new construction [18] - The report notes that the average spot price of electricity in major U.S. regions has increased by 12.5% week-on-week, while natural gas prices have also risen significantly due to geopolitical factors and extreme weather [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of small modular reactors (SMR) as a preferred energy solution for AI data centers, especially with the support of the Trump administration [54][55] Summary by Sections Global Infrastructure and Construction Equipment - OpenAI and Microsoft are renegotiating their partnership, with both parties acknowledging the strategic importance of AI infrastructure [15] - The U.S. is expected to invest over 825 billion yuan in grid infrastructure by 2025, maintaining a high level of activity [18] Global Electrical and Intelligent Equipment - The gas turbine price index increased by 5.3% year-on-year in May 2025, indicating a tightening supply-demand relationship [22] - The report anticipates that the U.S. gas turbine market will grow primarily due to the development of AI data centers [25] Global Energy Industry - The average spot price of electricity in the U.S. has risen by 12.5% week-on-week, while natural gas prices have increased by 17.4% [3] - The report mentions that the U.S. is expected to increase its nuclear power capacity significantly by 2029, driven by the demand from data centers [55] Global New Materials - The report states that the actual market price of uranium was $52.17 per pound in April 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 27.2% [4] Global Defense and Aerospace - The price index for aircraft engines and parts remained stable in May 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [4] Key Company Updates - GE Vernova is investing $70 million to build the world's first BWRX-300 SMR engineering and service center near the Darlington new nuclear project site in Ontario [52] - Siemens Canada announced plans to gradually close a factory in Ontario to enhance global competitiveness [52] - ABB has expanded its large robot product line, introducing a compact mobile robot [52]

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 27 Jun 2025 电子 Technology HDC 2025（2）华为云发布盘古 5.5 大模型，引领 AI 变革 Huawei Cloud Releases Pangu 5.5 Model, Leading AI Transformation 姚书桥 Barney Yao 吴叡霖 Louis Ng barney.sq.yao@htisec.com louis.yl.ng@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件 2025 年 6 月 20 日，华为在 HDC 2025 开发者大会上重磅发布盘古大模型 5.5，该模型包含 NLP、多模态、预测、科学 计算、CV 五大基础模型，其中 NLP 领域推出准万亿参数的盘古 Ultra MoE 深度思考模型。基于昇腾全栈软硬件协同 创新，华为通过 DSSN 稳定架构、TinyInit 初始化等关键技术，在 CloudMa ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 27 Jun 2025 中国电子 China (Overseas) Technology HDC 2025（3）华为 CloudRobo 平台发布：三模型重构具身智能生态 CloudRobo Platform Unveiled: Reshaping the Embodied Intelligence Ecosystem 姚书桥 Barney Yao 吴叡霖 Louis Ng barney.sq.yao@htisec.com louis.yl.ng@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis 事件 2025 年 6 月 20 日，华为在东莞举行的 HDC 2025 开发者大会上正式发布 CloudRobo 具身智能平台 ，明确"华为云不 做机器人本体，让一切联网设备成为具身智能机器人"的战略定位。该平台以盘古大模型 5.5 为底座，整合数据合 成、仿真验证、云边协同部署等端到端能力，首次提出三大核心模型架构（多模态生成、规划、执行大模型）， 实现技术闭环。其突破性在于：1）数据效率革命：通过多模 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [2]. Core Insights - The wholesale prices of major baijiu brands have generally fallen, with Moutai's prices dropping significantly. For instance, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai (case) is now 1,950 yuan, down by 190 yuan from last month, and down 290 yuan year-to-date [29][35]. - The discount rates for soft drinks, condiments, and beer have decreased compared to the end of May, indicating a potential increase in consumer demand or pricing power for these categories [30][31]. - The average discount rate for liquid milk products has increased slightly, suggesting a shift in pricing dynamics within this segment [32]. Summary by Sections Baijiu Pricing - Feitian Moutai (case) is priced at 1,950 yuan, down 190 yuan from last month and down 290 yuan year-to-date. The price has decreased by 460 yuan compared to the same period last year [35]. - Wuliangye's eighth-generation price is stable at 920 yuan, with a slight decrease of 25 yuan from last month [35]. - Other brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu also show minor price adjustments, reflecting a broader trend in the baijiu market [29][35]. Consumer Goods Discounts - The average discount rate for soft drinks has improved from 88.7% to 94.8%, indicating a reduction in discounting practices [30][31]. - For condiments, the average discount rate increased from 83.4% to 87.7%, suggesting stronger pricing power [30][31]. - Beer products also saw a rise in average discount rates from 78.7% to 81.2%, reflecting a similar trend [30][31]. Liquid Milk and Other Products - The average discount rate for liquid milk products has slightly increased from 69.7% to 68.8%, indicating a potential tightening in pricing strategies [32]. - Infant formula and convenience foods have maintained stable pricing, with discount rates remaining relatively unchanged [32][33].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 27 Jun 2025 电子 Technology HDC2025（1）破局与重构：HarmonyOS 6 的技术突围与生态进化 Breakthrough and Reconfiguration: HarmonyOS 6's Technological Breakout and Ecosystem Evolution 姚书桥 Barney Yao 吴叡霖 Louis Ng barney.sq.yao@htisec.com louis.yl.ng@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件 2025 年 6 月 20 日，华为在东莞举行的 HDC 2025 开发者大会上正式发布 HarmonyOS 6 开发者测试版，重点聚焦 AI 能 力升级与生态扩展，推出包括毫秒级低延迟交互技术、鸿蒙智能体框架（HMAF）以及"碰一碰分享"等创新互联功 能。为强化开发者支持，华为同步启 ...

研究报告 Research Report 26 Jun 2025 西锐 Cirrus Aircraft (2507 HK) 首次覆盖: 全球领先的私航飞机制造商与航空安全技术革新先锋 [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus Global Leader in Private Aviation Manufacturing and Safety Innovation: Initiation [Table_Info] 首次覆盖优于大市 Initiate with OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$40.15 目标价 HK$60.00 HTI ESG 2.6-3.3-3.5 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$14.69bn / US$1.87bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$22.44mn 发行股票数目 365.99mn 自由流通股 (%) 15% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$45.01-HK$17.46 注：现价 HK$40.15 为 2025 ...